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Governor’s Economic Development Marketing
Team July 15, 2015
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
EARLVILLE, IL CIRCA 2013
WHAT YOU DO MATTERS!
EARLVILLE, IL POP. 1,500
MARATHON ELECTRIC CO.
SAVED BY READING
IT’S ABOUT PEOPLE
WHERE ARE YOU GOING?
Commuting Patterns Slide
Source: US Census, Angeles Ortega
Source: US Census, Angeles Ortega
FOUR FORCES DRIVING TRENDS
TRENDS - WHAT DO YOU THINK?
1-3 years | 3-5 years | 5+ years
Social
Technological
Economic
Environmental
Political
THE FUTURE
SOCIAL TRENDS• Aging population• Increasing health concerns• Increasing fear of technology• Decreased trust in our institutions• Increasing concern regarding climate change
TECHNOLOGY• Exponential increase in power; decreasing cost • Digital everything – IoT (Internet of Things)• Connected –9 Billion people; 24x7
EXPONENTIAL RATE OF CHANGE
Source: Kahn Academy
THE GAP
Source: The Second Machine Age
WORKING for a NON-HUMAN?
• Dr. Watson I presume?• AI – now and in the future• HAL 9000 • Robot caregivers
ECONOMIC• Bifurcation of Society – knows & know-nots• Benefit of increase productivity goes to capital not
labor• Income inequality increases• Globalization expands
ENVIRONMENTAL• Climate change acknowledged as threat• Extreme weather increases• Natural gas replaces coal • Water becomes a global issue
POLITICAL • Tea Party Wins – US Capital moves to Wichita • Political power goes to 1% • Mistrust of government grows• Local government shrinks• Self-government expands
TEN TRENDS IMPACTING ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
WORK
More complex requiring high skill level
Fewer workers same output
30%of work done in home office
Work moves to the people
Meaningful work done globally competitively
TALENT
Talent drive location
Live first, work second
Zero-sum talent pool
Enormous demand for talent
Business demands education reinvention
EDUCATION/TRAINING
Knowledge vs. skills
Value of degree questioned
Those with degrees go back to school to learn skill
Education moves online
Collaborative learning
COMMUNICATION
Social Media used for personal communication
Discussion groups and email used for professional connections
Letter writing makes a comeback
TRANSPORTATIONConsumers shift to buy it local
Internet retailing creates demand for distribution centers - same day delivery
Electric vehicles off to a slow start but gaining
Self-driving vehicles on the horizon
Sharing economy gains traction
ENERGYInexpensive abundant natural gas shift location of chemical production
Increase concern for water resources
Electric generation shift from coal to gas
U.S. becomes exporter
FINANCE
Bank alternatives grow - Paypal, micro-loans, etc.
U.S. devalues its currency by 20%, China bails out Europe
Banks, re-capitalized, can now afford to foreclose on non-performing loans
Investment banks continue to block crowd funding of start-ups
TECHNOLOGY
Cloud computer and storage become the norm
Ubiquitous mobile computing
Cyberwar become a growing concern
Bio engineering grows
ENTERTAINMENT
Social Media max out limited by our discretionary time
Professional and amateur sporting events grow in demand
OTHERCulture influence shift from the U.S. to China and India
Relevance advertising becomes increasingly frightening
We become homogeneous in our thinking due to the information bubble
Possible Probable
2020
2025
2030
Preferred
THE CONE OF POSSIBILITIES
Now
CHANGEAdapt
• Linear
• Rearview Mirror
• Where we’ve been
• Dinosaur approach
• Victim of Change
Anticipate
• Exponential Rate of Change
• Trend Focused
• Skate where the puck is going
• Becoming Future Smart
• Choosing a future
THANK YOU!
Dean Whittaker
Whittaker Associates, Inc.
616-786-2500
www.whittakerassociates.com
