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RICHARD M. BRANDT DIRECTOR LEHIGH UNIVERSITY IACOCCA INSTITUTE SENZATIONS September 1, 2015

Globalization is going backward

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Page 1: Globalization is going backward

RICHARD M. BRANDTDIRECTOR

LEHIGH UNIVERSITYIACOCCA INSTITUTE

SENZATIONSSeptember 1, 2015

Page 2: Globalization is going backward

RICHARD M. BRANDTDirector, Iacocca Institute

Dick Brandt is an international consultant, advisor and accomplished public speaker. He has had over 15 years of experience in managing international business operations, while serving in various Vice Presidential positions during a 25-year career at AT&T and Lucent Technologies. International operations for which Mr. Brandt assumed responsibility included all activities associated with sales, project implementation, technical sales support and staff in over 25 countries in Asia, Western Europe, Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Africa. These responsibilities led him to direct discussions of international business issues with world leaders such as the former President of the PLO, Yasser Arafat and Jiang Zemin, former President of the PRC. Mr. Brandt also served on the Board of Directors for five international ventures in Singapore, the PRC, India, Poland and Russia. He assumed the position of International Sales Vice President in 1989 and concentrated on opening up the Asia/Pacific market for AT&T starting with Korea and Taiwan. Dick then established several joint ventures and expanded operations to 15 countries in Asia by 1994. During this time, Dick led several hundred sales and support staff with hundreds of millions of dollars in annual sales.

In 1970, Dick Brandt began his career as a sales manager for Ohio Bell. Ten years later as a principal consultant for AT&T International in Dublin, Ireland, his international work began with the establishment of AT&T's first international company. Mr. Brandt spent over 14 years living and working overseas, beginning in Ireland and continuing in Italy, Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong, and the Netherlands.

His personal and professional experience in marketing, team leadership, joint ventures and global business architecture and management has given him depth and perception that he brings to both the training room and his advice to corporate clients. Mr. Brandt has developed extensive seminar materials on various aspects of international work in the global marketplace. He earned his BS Degree from Kent State University, and he is a graduate of the Advanced Management Program at the Harvard Business School. He also served as a First Lieutenant in the United States Army immediately after his years at Kent State in the ROTC program. He spent two years on active duty at Fort Bliss, El Paso, Texas, and received the Army commendation medal for his work as the Public Information Officer. He then spent five years in the Army Reserves in Ohio.

Following his tenure at AT&T, Mr. Brandt has been able to devote himself to speaking and training engagements, having delivered lectures at Erasmus University in the Netherlands, Rome University in Italy, the World Economic Forum in South Africa, and Loyola University in Europe, plus training for Warner Lambert (The Sales Process in Japan), Bristol-Meyers Squibb (Doing business in Australia/New Zealand), Rohm & Haas (Asia Pacific Business Training), and Baruch College (Establishing International Joint Ventures).

Dick has been employed by Lehigh University for the past 18 years. He serves as the Director of the Iacocca Institute in the Office of the Vice President of International Affairs, and has been the Director of the renowned Global Village Program for Future Leaders of Business and Industry for 15 years. The Global Village Program delivers its learning through interactive courses, multi-cultural teaming experiences, business and organizational visits, executive round table discussions, themed panel and seminar sessions. Since its inception, this program has welcomed 1750 young leaders from 133 countries – all of whom are part of the Global Village worldwide alumni network.

In addition to delivering the International Business courses at The Iacocca Institute at Lehigh University, Mr. Brandt has also taught Business One for seven years at Lehigh’s College of Business and Economics. He currently facilitates a session on international negotiations in the innovative Integrated Business and Engineering Honors Program. Additionally, Mr. Brandt has taught the Business Policy course in the Executive MBA Program at The Zicklin School of Business, Baruch College, and The City University of New York. He has also taught executive education programs for Long Island University.

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WHAT I HAVE DONE AND WHERE I HAVE DONE IT

Started with the first international company for AT&T in 1980

One year in Ireland to develop a Strategic Plan for An Board Telecom

Two years in Italy to structure a Major Accounts Sales Organization for SIP

Two years in Australia to establish a National Sales Organization for Telstra

One year in New Zealand to create a National Sales Organization and nationwide distribution chain for the New Zealand Post Office

Three years in Italy and Greece to establish the first AT&T offices

Four years in Hong Kong to run the Network Systems (Lucent) sales force for Asia

Two years in The Netherlands for sales and product management in Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa

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If you could fit the entire population of the world into a village consisting of 100 people, maintaining the proportions of all the people living on Earth, that village would consist

60 Asians15 Africans13 Americans (North, Central and South, Caribbean) 11 Europeans

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There would be: 50 women and 50 men1 33 Christians, 23 Muslim, 14 Hindu, 7 Buddhist, 12 other religions2

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6 people would possess 59% of the wealth 80 would live in poverty  70 would be illiterate 50 would suffer from hunger and malnutrition 1 would be dying 1 would be being born 1 would own a computer 1 (yes, only one) would have a university degree

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If you currently have money in the bank, in your wallet and a few coins in your purse, you are one of 8 of the privileged few amongst the 100 people in the world.

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Globalization is Going Backward

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Globalization-“The Times They Are Changing”

Past seven years presented Globalization Going Forward

Rise in Connected Countries (Political, Security, Economic)

BRIC’s are the rising new markets (Brazil, Russia, India, China)

World broken into CORE (connected) and GAP (Disconnected) countries

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Move Over BRIC’s—Here comes the MIST’s

BRIC’s are still the largest emerging marketsInvestment Banks are supporting new fast-

track economiesMexico, Indonesia, South Korea, and TurkeyYoung populations of educated young people

get attentionAdd Nigeria, Bangladesh, Pakistan,

Philippines and Vietnam

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Why the shift from the BRIC’s

The BRIC’s are turning inside instead of outside

Investment in new MIST markets up 12%Investment in BRIC’s is up 3%Investors are withdrawing Billions from BRIC

fundsEase of doing business still up in BRIC’s

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Countries Unable to control inside their borders

Magnet for terrorists, drug cartels, pirates, human traffickers, and criminal enterprises

Short list of Yemen, Somalia, Lebanon, Libya, Nigeria, Pakistan, Mali, Nicaragua, Haiti, Central African Rep., Mauritania, Afghanistan, and Syria

Data from Council of Foreign relations – 2014.

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America is not in decline

Most formidable military anywhereWorld's largest Economy and better in 2015Workforce not aging like China, Japan and

EuropeWorld's best tech companies are hereNext generation of technology is hereCloud computing, artificial intelligence,

advanced manufacturing and nanotechnologyEntrepreneurial culture--What is next?

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USA foreign policy in decline

More governments with resources to shrug off US influence

Less coalitions and less trade agreementsLess influence to lead other nations into

conflictsSome countries move away from US Trade

dependent.

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The Rookies take the Field

They are birthing the new middle classNew growth is significantAfter 2008 free markets lost some position in

worldDeveloping countries have different agendas

and prioritiesDemocratic governments may not be the rule

60 + countries Monarchies, one party governments, dictators,

transitional, countries not controlling territories

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Globalization Has a Reverse Gear

Sluggish Economic Growth ratesHigh UnemploymentEconomic turbulence is with usWorld Trade Figures are worrying

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World Trade—Binding our Planet

Last 20 year trade is ahead of GDPGDP Grows at 4% but Trade Grows 8%Last 12-24 months-Trade slowing not

doublingSome trade areas below GDP World Investments overseas dropped 10%

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Largest trading nation is now PRC

Xi Jinping wants Free Trade Area for Asia Pacific (20 countries)

USA still working on Trans-Pacific Partnership (12 countries)

In 2014 USA is Trade Partner for 76 nationsIn 2014 China is Trade Partner for 124

nationsChina Economic Reform Policy is Stronger

State Run Companies

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Relationships with traditional allies are shaky

Unhappiness with Putin is not universalUSA Spy Agencies listening to MerkelRevelations of USA Prison torture anger

manyMiddle East Policy in confusion-back to IraqUK influence in EU will lessonRise of China will cool Asian Ally supportUSA Poll says "Mind our own business

internationally" (62%)

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What are the Signs of Going Backward?

China’s past 20 years driven by connecting outside

Next 10 years will be fixing the insideGlobal Financial Model was connecting

outsideStrongest banks financially are strongly localEven what we eat and wear is moving to local

brands

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Manufacturing costs per hour

Country Labor Costs per hour

Indonesia $.50Vietnam $2.06Philippines $2.44Malaysia $2.97China $3.25Russia $3.26Turkey $5.29Mexico $6.83Brazil $9.88U.S. $38.13

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Have we gone Too Far Too Fast in Connectivity?

Do we understand the dynamics of what we built

Facebook, LinkedIn and Twitter may see the reaction first

Too much outside exposureAre your “Friends” shutting downAre we burdened by a world with no privacy

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US dollar dependency is changing globally

$ has served for decades as Central Bank Assets

USA is always "The Safest Port on the Storm"Attracts investment to USA and helps

currency conversionChina, Brazil and Russia are moving away

from $Today 25% of China trade is in RMBAutocratic Leaders don't promise democratic

reforms

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More foreign nations can change globalization

Nations may even block USA PlansStrongest emerging nations don't need

IMF/World BankNations creating their own lending

institutionsBRICS Created a 2014 Development Bank

($50 Bil.)China Development Bank and Brazil

Development Bank increase lendingIMF ($52 Bil), CDB ($240 Bil.), BNDES ($85

Bil.)

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The new rule for globalization

Globalization will not promote American Values or Best Practices