Global Trade Flow Index Q2 2010

Global Trade Flow Index

Q2 - 2010

October 2010

Supported by:

AGENDA

• Summary

• Index

• Preview Window for Q3‟10

• Appendix

© 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved

GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX 2

Global trade growth in Q2 2010 has slowed down and rose by 3.6% q-o-q following a cautious optimism, while Asia-Pacific and Latin America continue to rise on trade growth

Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Tradingeconomics.com, Stats.oecd.org, 2010.



16311698

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800

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Q1 09Q4 08Q3 08Q2 08Q1 08Q4 07Q3 07 Q2 10Q1 10

Growth (%)

Volume (billion USD)

TOTAL TRADE- TOP 23 COUNTRIES (BILLION USD)

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09Q2 07

Despite the slowing of trade recovery momentum,

trade volumes continued to grow in Q2 2010,

characterized by easing of the crisis-induced

credit crunch and the rebuilding of inventories in

several economies

Growth in the Eurozone picked up in Q2 2010

with the recovery in construction output and

positive growth in its domestic consumption,

however its trade recovery faced a downside risk

as export volumes declined slightly in all major

European regions

USA total trade increased majorly on account of

6.2% q-o-q rise in its imports with increase in both

oil and non-oil imports, further widening the trade

deficit in Q2 2010

China‟s accelerating export growth rate of 23%

over Q1 2010 has continued to be a major

component supporting its economic growth,

outpacing US

Brazil‟s exports surged 7% q-o-q in Q2 2010 on

account of steady growth in the agriculture

industry and services sector, while Mexico

witnessed a 5.3% q-o-q growth in its exports of

goods because of the big jump in sale of

automotive products to US

AGENDA

• Summary

• Index


• Appendix



China replaced US at No.1 position, backed by its own domestic consumptionand a huge jump in industrial production along with accelerating exports

Note : * Global Trade Index Score = A x (average of (B,C,D)) © 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved


CountryRANK

Q2-2010

RANK

Q1-2010

China 1 2

United States2 1

Germany 3 3

Japan 4 4

France 5 5

Netherlands 6 6

South Korea 7 9

United Kingdom

8 7

Italy 9 8

Canada 10 11

Belgium 11 10

Mexico 12 14

Russian

Federation13 12

Trade Volume

Score

(A)

Q-o-Q Growth

Score (B)

4.00 4.00

3.77 3.53

2.62 3.33

1.68 3.32

1.26 3.25

1.24 3.35

1.05 3.57

1.07 3.35

1.04 3.35

0.92 3.53

0.90 3.25

0.70 3.56

0.72 3.22

Global Trade

Index Score*

16.00

13.27

9.24

5.78

4.33

4.32

3.80

3.68

3.62

3.21

3.09

2.50

2.43

Foreign Market

Score (C)

Domestic

Market Score

(D)

4.00 4.00

3.36 3.66

3.56 3.69

3.43 3.60

3.37 3.67

3.38 3.73

3.51 3.73

3.32 3.70

3.45 3.65

3.29 3.67

3.39 3.63

3.43 3.71

3.44 3.45

Trade related parameters Market related parameters

Brazil’s decelerating trade growth and India’s poor performance over the lastquarter led to their fall in their global ranking in Q2 2010

Note : * Global Trade Index Score = A x (average of (B,C,D))



CountryRANK

Q2-2010

RANK

Q1-2010

India 14 13

Spain 15 15

Australia 16 17

Brazil 17 16

Poland 18 19

Switzerland 19 18

Sweden 20 20

Austria 21 21

Czech

Republic22 22

Norway 23 23

Trade Volume

Score (A)

Q-o-Q Growth

Score (B)

0.65 3.40

0.61 3.16

0.48 3.76

0.45 3.62

0.41 3.66

0.39 3.31

0.35 3.47

0.34 3.26

0.28 3.25

0.24 3.21

Global Trade

Index Score*

2.19

2.07

1.81

1.62

1.45

1.35

1.23

1.16

0.95

0.81

Foreign Market

Score (C)

Domestic

Market Score

(D)

3.21 3.43

3.30 3.66

3.92 3.64

3.55 3.73

3.45 3.65

3.33 3.69

3.47 3.67

3.45 3.65

3.36 3.69

3.27 3.70

Trade related parameters Market related parameters

Amongst Asian economies, China excelled with its accelerating exports; while Germany emerged as the growth engine of the eurozone in Q2 2010

Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, 2009, Tradingeconomics.com, Standardandpoors.com, Economic-research.bnpparibas.com.

China

Russia

* As per the revised Q1 2010 figures released by OECD

X - Foreign Market Growth (%)

Y - Domestic Market Growth (%)

Bubble – GDP Q1 2010

X - Foreign Market Growth (%)

Y - Domestic Market Growth (%)

Bubble – GDP Q2 2010

China

2nd Quarter- 2010

US

* As per the Q2 2010 figures released by OECD

1st Quarter- 2010



India

India’s economy

slumped as both export

and import growth

contracted and despite

stimulus packages like

reduction in excise

duties and service tax,

its domestic

consumption dropped

by 5% q-o-q in Q2 2010

China witnessed an accelerating 23%

q-o-q growth in foreign market trade,

constituting 32% of its GDP; backed by

governments‟ liberalization initiatives

and investments in infrastructure

Japan

-35,0

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AustraliaUS

India Germany’s GDP increased by 2.2%

q-o-q in Q2 2010; supported by growth in

exports (benefiting from the Asian

demand and the depreciation of the

euro) and Investments (rise in

construction spending and an increase in

investment in machinery & equipments)

Germany

Australia

Germany

Australia’s economy grew by 3.5% and a

20% rise in exports were spurred by

soaring exports of iron ore and coals

alongside the robust trade linkages with

Asia

AGENDA

• Summary

• Index

• Preview Window for Q3’10

• Appendix



While Global Trade is slowly mending and is expected to grow in the coming quarter, the risk of a constrained growth remains as governments continue withdrawal of stimulus



Is growth going to be limited with

growing talks on monetary and fiscal

stimulus withdrawals?

With capacity utilization continuing to

increase and inventory restocking

reaching a comfortable level in several

economies, is global trade going to

weaken?

With high unemployment, a weak euro

and the possibility of international

frictions and protectionist pressures,

are trade imbalances in the European

region going to rise?

RISKS TO WATCH OUT FOR

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Q1 09Q4 08Q3 08 Q3 10EQ2 10

Growth (%) Volume (billion USD)

TOTAL TRADE (Q2 2010) - TOP 23 COUNTRIES (USD Bn)

Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10

Note: Q3 „10 growth estimation is based on trade flow data for July 2010; the actual growth rate might vary depending on total trade figures for the entire quarter.

Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, 2010, Trading Economics, 2010.

If monetary and fiscal stimulus are taken away too soon, when the recovery in trade is still tentative - there is a risk of falling back into recession and deflation.

AGENDA

• Summary

• Index


• Appendix



AGENDA

• Summary

• Index


• Appendix

• Country Profiles

• The West-to-East Switch: BRIC

• Methodology & Base Data Files

GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX


11

Country profile – China

Key Trade-related Trends/FactsGeneral information

Description Values

GDP 1251.1 Billions USD

GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 10.94%

Population 133.86 Crore

GDP per Capita (2008) 6000 USD

RANK 1

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

-30

-15

0

15

Growth(%)

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Growth(%)

Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Growth Domestic market (%)

Growth Export Market (%)Value (billions USD)Value (billions Yuan)

Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, Tradingeconomics.com.

China‟s low-cost manufacturing capabilities work well especially

for its import and export trade; the country is also well connected

to international markets through its vast port facilities

Chinese accelerated export growth rate constituted a major

component supporting China's rapid economic growth of 10.9%

q-o-q in Q2 2010

China witnessed a 19% growth in total trade in Q2 2010 over the

previous quarter, backed by governments‟ liberalization initiatives

and investments in infrastructure



12

Q4-

2008Q3-

2008

Q4-

2009

Q2-

2010Q2-

2008

Q1-

2009

Q1-

2010Q3-

2009

Q2

2009

Q4-

2008Q3-

2008

Q4-

2009Q2-

2010

Q2-2

008

Q1-

2009Q1-

2010

Q3-

2009

Q2

2009Q4-

2008Q3-

2008

Q4-

2009Q2-

2010

Q2-

2008

Q1-

2009Q1-

2010

Q3-

2009

Q2-

2009

Country profile – United States


Description Values


GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 0.89 %


GDP per Capita (2008) 35,645 USD

RANK 2

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

-25

-10

5

20

Value (billions USD)

Growth(%)Growth(%)


-15

-10

-5

0

5

10


Growth Export Market (%)

3,400,000

3,450,000

3,500,000

3,550,000

3,600,000

3,650,000

3,700,000

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5


Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, Reuters.com, Market-melange.com, BEA.gov.



13

Q4-2

008Q3-

2008

Q4-

2009

Q2-

2010Q2-

2008

Q1-

2009

Q1-

2010Q3-

2009

Q2

2009

Q4-

2008Q3-

2008

Q4-

2009Q2-

2010

Q2-

2008

Q1-

2009Q1-

2010

Q3-2

009

Q2

2009Q4-

2008Q3-

2008

Q4-

2009Q2-

2010

Q2-

2008

Q1-

2009Q1-

2010

Q3-

2009

Q2-

2009

One of the biggest economies in the world, the US has good

quality infrastructure, quality transport infrastructure and efficient

custom administration

The US economic growth slowed in Q2 with less than 1% GDP

growth over Q1, as companies invested heavily in equipment

from abroad and the pace of consumer spending eased, raising

concerns about the recovery in the rest of 2010

Though International trade increased in volume, its growth has

slowed down and imports continue to outpace exports leading to

sustained trade deficits

Country profile – Germany


Description Values





RANK 3

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

-30

-15

0

15

Growth(%)

570,000

580,000

590,000

600,000

610,000

620,000

630,000

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Growth(%)


-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15


Growth Export Market (%)Value (billions USD)Value (billions Euro)

Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, 2010, Chinapost.com, Economic-research.bnpparibas.com.

Q4-

2008Q3-

2008

Q4-

2009

Q2-

2010Q2-2

008

Q1-

2009

Q1-

2010Q3-

2009

Q2

2009

Q4-

2008Q3-

2008

Q4-

2009Q2-

2010

Q2-

2008

Q1-

2009Q1-

2010

Q3-

2009

Q2

2009



14

Q4-

2008Q3-

2008

Q4-

2009Q2-

2010

Q2-

2008

Q1-

2009Q1-

2010

Q3-

2009

Q2-

2009

Germany‟s GDP increased by 2.2% q-o-q in Q2 2010;

supported by growth in exports and because of an increase in

investment in machinery and equipment & rise in construction

spending

Germany is the world's second-biggest exporter after China

and in Q2 2010, its export of goods & services grew by 9.4%

over previous quarter, benefiting from the Asian demand and

the depreciation of the euro

Country profile – Japan


Description Values


GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) -0.63 %



RANK 4

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

-30

-15

0

15

Growth(%)

112,000,000

114,000,000

116,000,000

118,000,000

120,000,000

122,000,000

124,000,000

126,000,000

128,000,000

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

Growth(%)


-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20


Growth Export Market (%)Value (billions USD)Value (billions Yen)

Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, Reuters.com, News.bbc.co.uk ,”Japan‟s economy”, 2010.



Japan‟s economy is highly efficient and competitive in areas

linked to international trade, but productivity is far lower in

protected areas such as agriculture, distribution, and services.

In Q2, Japan‟s economy has reduced by 0.63% due to deflation

and a rise in the yen

With the reduction in its exports, its total trade also come down

by 1% q-o-q thus threatening an expected export-reliant recovery

15

Q4-

2008Q3-

2008

Q4-

2009

Q2-

2010Q2-

2008

Q1-

2009

Q1-

2010Q3-

2009

Q2

2009

Q4-

2008Q3-

2008

Q4-

2009Q2-

2010

Q2-

2008

Q1-

2009Q1-

2010

Q3-

2009

Q2

2009Q4-2

008Q3-

2008

Q4-

2009Q2-

2010

Q2-

2008

Q1-

2009Q1-

2010

Q3-

2009

Q2-

2009

Country profile – France


Description Values





RANK 5

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

-30

-15

0

15

465,000

470,000

475,000

480,000

485,000

490,000

495,000

-2

-1

-1

0

1

1

2

Growth(%)

Gross Domestic Product Total Trade

Value (billions Euro)

Growth(%)

Domestic & Export Market



-15

-10

-5

0

5

10


Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Economic-research.credit-agricole.com, XE.com, Stats.oecd.org, 2010.



Q4-

2008Q3-

2008

Q4-

2009

Q2-

2010Q2-2

008

Q1-

2009

Q1-

2010Q3-

2009

Q2

2009

Q4-

2008Q3-

2008

Q4-

2009Q2-

2010

Q2-

2008

Q1-

2009Q1-

2010

Q3-

2009

Q2

2009Q4-

2008Q3-

2008

Q4-

2009Q2-

2010

Q2-

2008

Q1-

2009Q1-

2010

Q3-

2009

Q2-

2009

An increase in consumer spending, a rise in inventories and a

rebound in business investment helped Eurozone's second

largest economy to expand by 1% q-o-q in Q2 2010

With revival of private sector investment, French domestic

demand showed strength in Q2 although its net trade went

down due to an increase in energy imports and a drop in car

exports

Country profile – The Netherlands

Description Values





RANK 6

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-30

-15

0

15

Growth(%)

138,000

140,000

142,000

144,000

146,000

148,000

150,000

152,000

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Growth(%)


-10

-5

0

5

10



General information Key Trade-related Trends/Facts

Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Nfia.co.uk, XE.com, Stats.oecd.org, 2010.



Q4-

2008Q3-

2008

Q4-

2009

Q2-

2010Q2-

2008

Q1-2

009

Q1-

2010Q3-

2009

Q2

2009

Q4-

2008Q3-

2008

Q4-

2009Q2-

2010

Q2-

2008

Q1-

2009Q1-

2010

Q3-

2009

Q2

2009Q4-

2008Q3-

2008

Q4-

2009Q2-2

010

Q2-

2008

Q1-

2009Q1-

2010

Q3-

2009

Q2-

2009

The Netherlands which depends heavily on foreign trade owns an

outstanding transport Infrastructure, with Rotterdam being one of

the world‟s best seaports, enhancing the country‟s connectivity to

rest of the world

The Dutch economy grew strongly in the second quarter of 2010

mainly through increased exports, though the q-o-q growth of

export of goods & services was less as compared to Q1 2010

Growth in consumption and investment showed an increase over

the previous quarter

Country profile – South Korea


Description Values





RANK 7

0

20

40

60

80

100

-30

-15

0

15

Growth(%)

230,000,000

240,000,000

250,000,000

260,000,000

270,000,000

280,000,000

290,000,000

300,000,000

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

Growth(%)


-10

-5

0

5

10

15


Growth Export Market (%)Value (billions USD)Value (billions Won)

Korean economy grew 2% q-o-q during the second quarter of

2010 due to robust investments, fiscal stimulus and the export

boost from inventory restocking

Even when the domestic market growth slowed down, facility

investment continue to improve and foreign market grew by

approximately 8% making it the world's ninth-largest exporter

Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Oecdobserver.org, “Korea‟s economy 2010”, Roubini.com, XE.com, Stats.oecd.org, 2010.



Q4-

2008Q3-

2008

Q4-

2009

Q2-

2010Q2-

2008

Q1-

2009

Q1-

2010Q3-

2009

Q2

2009

Q4-

2008Q3-

2008

Q4-

2009Q2-

2010

Q2-

2008

Q1-

2009Q1-

2010

Q3-

2009

Q2

2009Q4-

2008Q3-

2008

Q4-

2009Q2-

2010

Q2-20

08

Q1-

2009Q1-

2010

Q3-

2009

Q2-

2009

Country profile – United Kingdom


Description Values





RANK 8

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-30

-15

0

15

Growth(%)

330,000

335,000

340,000

345,000

350,000

355,000

360,000

365,000

370,000

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Growth(%)


-10

-5

0

5

10


Growth Export Market (%)Value (billions USD)Value (billions GBP)

Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Financemarkets.co.uk , Euronews.net, Stats.oecd.org, 2010.



The UK economy continued to expand over the second quarter

of 2010 as GDP rose by 1.7%; the increase in output was

mainly due to increases in business services and Finance and

construction sector

With hardly any change in its total trade, UK „s trade deficit remained quite high

19

Q4-

2008Q3-

2008

Q4-

2009

Q2-

2010Q2-

2008

Q1-

2009

Q1-

2010Q3-

2009

Q2

2009

Q4-

2008Q3-

2008

Q4-

2009Q2-

2010

Q2-

2008

Q1-

2009Q1-

2010

Q3-

2009

Q2

2009Q4-

2008Q3-

2008

Q4-

2009Q2-

2010

Q2-

2008

Q1-

2009Q1-2

010

Q3-

2009

Q2-

2009

Country profile – Italy


Description Values





RANK 9

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-30

-15

0

15

30

Growth(%)

365,000

370,000

375,000

380,000

385,000

390,000

395,000

400,000

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

Growth(%)


-15

-10

-5

0

5

10



Italy‟s GDP rose by 1.1% in Q2 2010, mainly driven by exports,

inventories and investment, especially in machinery, while

domestic demand remained subdued

Italy has strong business clusters, producing goods high in

value chain using latest processes & technology, but the

structural weaknesses in the economy increases business costs

and undermines investor confidence, making the strength of

recovery in 2010 a little uncertain

Value (billions USD)Value (billions Euro)

Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Alibaba.com, Stats.oecd.org, 2010.



Q4-

2008Q3-

2008

Q4-

2009

Q2-

2010Q2-

2008

Q1-

2009

Q1-

2010Q3-

2009

Q2

2009

Q4-

2008Q3-2

008

Q4-

2009Q2-

2010

Q2-

2008

Q1-

2009Q1-

2010

Q3-

2009

Q2

2009Q4-

2008Q3-

2008

Q4-

2009Q2-

2010

Q2-

2008

Q1-

2009Q1-

2010

Q3-

2009

Q2-

2009

Country profile – Canada


Description Values





RANK 10

0

20

40

60

80

100

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

Growth(%)

360,000

370,000

380,000

390,000

400,000

410,000

420,000

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Growth(%)


-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10


Growth Export Market (%)Value (billions USD)Value (billions Canadian Dollar)

Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, Tradingeconomics.com, Roubini.com.

Canada‟s economy growth slowed as GDP grew by just 0.7%

due to weaker spending in the retail and wholesale sectors and

a downturn in the housing market

Canada has high availability & quality of transport infrastructure

as well as highly efficient markets, however it is highly

dependent on the US as a market, with 3/4th of its exports to US

Canadian exports to US fell in Q2 and its trade deficit widened

with increase in its import of petroleum and automobiles



Q4-

2008Q3-

2008

Q4-

2009

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2010Q2-

2008

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2009

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2010Q3-

2009

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2009

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2008Q3-

2008

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Q2-

2008

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2009Q1-

2010

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2009

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2009Q4-

2008Q3-

2008

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2009Q2-

2010

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2008

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2009Q1-

2010

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2009

Q2-

2009

Country profile – Belgium


Description Values





RANK 11

0

20

40

60

80

100

-30

-15

0

15

Growth(%)

81,000

82,000

83,000

84,000

85,000

86,000

87,000

88,000

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

Growth(%)


-15

-10

-5

0

5

10



Belgium's economy resumed growth in the second quarter

with boost from increase in households private consumption

expenditure

Exports equal around two thirds of its GDP and 80% of Belgium's

trade is with fellow EU member states

With decrease in both Export and Import of goods, its total trade

dropped by 3% q-o-q in Q2 2010

Value (billions USD)Value (billions Euro)

Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Euromonitor.com, Tradingeconomics.com, Stats.oecd.org, 2010 .



Q4-

2008Q3-

2008

Q4-

2009

Q2-

2010Q2-

2008

Q1-

2009

Q1-

2010Q3-

2009

Q2

2009

Q4-

2008Q3-

2008

Q4-

2009Q2-

2010

Q2-

2008

Q1-2

009Q1-

2010

Q3-

2009

Q2

2009Q4-

2008Q3-

2008

Q4-

2009Q2-

2010

Q2-

2008

Q1-

2009Q1-

2010

Q3-

2009

Q2-

2009

Country profile – Mexico


Description Values





RANK 12

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

-30

-15

0

15

30

Growth(%)

2,700,000

2,800,000

2,900,000

3,000,000

3,100,000

3,200,000

3,300,000

-4

-2

0

2

4

Growth(%)


-10

-5

0

5

10

15


Growth Export Market (%)Value (billions USD)Value (billions Peso)

Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Businessweek.com, Stats.oecd.org, 2010.

Mexico has an export-oriented economy, more than 90% of

Mexican trade is under free trade agreements (FTAs) with more

than 40 countries

Mexico‟s economy rose by 2.18% due to an increase in services

and a climb in the manufacturing and agricultural sector

Mexico‟s domestic and foreign market showed upward trend in

comparison with its Q1 2010 results

Its exports of goods rose to 5.3% because of a big jump in its

sales of automotive products to the United States



Q4-2

008Q3-

2008

Q4-

2009

Q2-

2010Q2-

2008

Q1-

2009

Q1-

2010Q3-

2009

Q2

2009

Q4-

2008Q3-

2008

Q4-

2009Q2-

2010

Q2-

2008

Q1-

2009Q1-

2010

Q3-2

009

Q2

2009Q4-

2008Q3-

2008

Q4-

2009Q2-

2010

Q2-

2008

Q1-

2009Q1-

2010

Q3-

2009

Q2-

2009

Russian GDP reduced by a sharper 7% in the second quarter of

2010 due to waning of crisis stimulus spending and continuing

low demand

Russia‟s total trade volume reduced by 4% due to major

reduction in its export of goods, hit by a slump in world demand,

weaker prices for its oil and commodity exports

Country profile – Russian Federation


Description Values


GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) -7.73 %

Population 14 Crore


RANK 13

0

20

40

60

80

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Growth(%)

8,500,000

9,000,000

9,500,000

10,000,000

10,500,000

11,000,000

11,500,000

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

Growth(%)


-30

-20

-10

0

10

20


Growth Export Market (%)Value (billions USD)Value (billions Rouble)

Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Reuters.com, Stats.oecd.org, 2010.



Q4-

2008Q3-

2008

Q4-

2009

Q2-

2010Q2-

2008

Q1-

2009

Q1-

2010Q3-

2009

Q2

2009

Q4-

2008Q3-

2008

Q4-

2009Q2-

2010

Q2-

2008

Q1-

2009Q1-

2010

Q3-

2009

Q2

2009Q4-2

008Q3-

2008

Q4-

2009Q2-

2010

Q2-

2008

Q1-

2009Q1-

2010

Q3-

2009

Q2-

2009

Country profile – India


Description Values


GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) -6 %



RANK 14

0

10

20

30

40

50

-30

-15

0

15

30

Growth(%)

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

-10

-5

0

5

10

Growth(%)


-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20


Growth Export Market (%)Value (billions USD)Value (billions Rupees)

Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Tradingeconomics.com, Stats.oecd.org, 2010.



Q4-

2008Q3-

2008

Q4-

2009

Q2-

2010Q2-

2008

Q1-2

009

Q1-

2010Q3-

2009

Q2

2009

Q4-

2008Q3-

2008

Q4-

2009Q2-

2010

Q2-

2008

Q1-

2009Q1-

2010

Q3-

2009

Q2

2009Q4-

2008Q3-

2008

Q4-

2009Q2-2

010

Q2-

2008

Q1-

2009Q1-

2010

Q3-

2009

Q2-

2009

India‟s GDP fell by 6% q-o-q as both export and import growth

contracted and in spite of strong supply, domestic

consumption dropped to 5% in Q2 2010 over the previous

quarter

Although India‟s economy slumped in Q2, on a yearly basis it

expanded by 9% with services as the major source of

economic growth, accounting for more than half of India's

output further lifted by robust activity in manufacturing

Country profile – Spain


Description Values





RANK 15

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

-30

-15

0

15

30

Growth(%)

255,000

260,000

265,000

270,000

275,000

-2

-1

-1

0

1

1

Growth(%)


-15

-10

-5

0

5

10



The Spanish economy rose by just 0.16% weighed down by

sluggish private consumption, still falling construction

investment and erratic business capital spending as the

government battles to trim a bloated budget

With EU accounting for 70 percent of Spain's exports, the slight

upturn in eurozone along with a weak euro translates into

relatively lesser benefit for spain as compared to other

European economies

Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Euronews.net, Stats.oecd.org, 2010.



Q4-

2008Q3-

2008

Q4-

2009

Q2-

2010Q2-

2008

Q1-

2009

Q1-

2010Q3-

2009

Q2

2009

Q4-

2008Q3-

2008

Q4-

2009Q2-

2010

Q2-

2008

Q1-

2009Q1-

2010

Q3-

2009

Q2

2009Q4-

2008Q3-

2008

Q4-

2009Q2-

2010

Q2-20

08

Q1-

2009Q1-

2010

Q3-

2009

Q2-

2009

Country profile – Australia


Description Values





RANK 16

0

10

20

30

40

-30

-15

0

15

30

Growth(%)

260,000

280,000

300,000

320,000

340,000

360,000

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

Growth(%)


-20

-10

0

10

20

30


Growth Export Market (%)Value (billions USD)Value (billions Dollar)

Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Forexyard.com, World Economic Forum, Stats.oecd.org, 2010.

Australia has transparent border administration and transport but

its regulatory environment promotes intense domestic competition

along with high domestic and foreign market barriers

The economy looked more balanced with a 3.6% q-o-q growth;

with the private sector increasingly taking over the government

stimulus as the engine of growth

Australia‟s 20% q-o-q growth in export of goods was spurred by

soaring exports of iron ore & coal; coupled with robust trade with

Asia



Q4-

2008Q3-

2008

Q4-

2009

Q2-

2010Q2-

2008

Q1-

2009

Q1-

2010Q3-

2009

Q2

2009

Q4-

2008Q3-

2008

Q4-

2009Q2-

2010

Q2-2

008

Q1-

2009Q1-

2010

Q3-

2009

Q2

2009Q4-

2008Q3-

2008

Q4-

2009Q2-

2010

Q2-

2008

Q1-

2009Q1-

2010

Q3-

2009

Q2-

2009

Country profile – Brazil


Description Values





RANK 17

0

10

20

30

40

-30

-15

0

15

30

Growth(%)

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

Growth(%)


-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30


Growth Export Market (%)Value (billions USD)Value (billions Real)

Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Bloomberg.com, Prnewswire.com, XE.com, Tradingeconomics.com, Stats.oecd.org, 2010.



Q4-

2008Q3-

2008

Q4-

2009

Q2-

2010Q2-

2008

Q1-2

009

Q1-

2010Q3-

2009

Q2

2009

Q4-

2008Q3-

2008

Q4-

2009Q2-

2010

Q2-

2008

Q1-

2009Q1-

2010

Q3-

2009

Q2

2009Q4-

2008Q3-

2008

Q4-

2009Q2-2

010

Q2-

2008

Q1-

2009Q1-

2010

Q3-

2009

Q2-

2009

Brazil economy continue to grow steadily and its GDP grew by 3.3% due to increase in its export and domestic consumption though cyclical forces and controlled measures to withdraw monetary stimulus slowed the rates

Household spending growth continued to ease and investment lost momentum although government consumption rose sharply as spending swelled ahead of elections in next quarter

Brazil exports surged due to steady growth in the agriculture industry and services sector

Country profile – Poland


Description Values





RANK 18

0

10

20

30

40

-30

-15

0

15

30

Growth(%)

290,000

300,000

310,000

320,000

330,000

340,000

350,000

360,000

0

1

1

2

2

Growth(%)


-2

0

2

4

6

8


Growth Export Market (%)Value (billions USD)Value (billions Poland)

The Polish economy expanded at a faster pace in Q2 2010 as

compared to Q1 led by investment, consumer spending,

construction and increase in exports

The total trade volume rose by 9% in comparison with Q1 2010

supported by a sharp rise in its export of goods & services

Sources : Capgemini Analysis, mt5.com, Forexyard.com, Stats.oecd.org, 2010.



Q4-

2008Q3-

2008

Q4-

2009

Q2-

2010Q2-

2008

Q1-

2009

Q1-

2010Q3-

2009

Q2

2009

Q4-

2008Q3-

2008

Q4-

2009Q2-

2010

Q2-

2008

Q1-

2009Q1-

2010

Q3-

2009

Q2

2009Q4-

2008Q3-

2008

Q4-

2009Q2-

2010

Q2-

2008

Q1-

2009Q1-

2010

Q3-

2009

Q2-

2009

Country profile – Switzerland


Description Values





RANK 19

0

10

20

30

40

-30

-15

0

15

30

Growth(%)

130,000

132,000

134,000

136,000

138,000

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Growth(%)


-10

-5

0

5

10


Growth Export Market (%)Value (billions USD)Value (billions Franc)

Sources : Capgemini Analysis, World Economic Forum, “Global Enabling Trade”, 2009, Cia.gov, Stats.oecd.org, 2010.



Switzerland has stable modern market economy with low

unemployment, a highly skilled labor force, and a per capita

GDP among the highest in the world

The Swiss economy continued its growth in the second quarter

of 2010, expanding at 1.2% as companies' investment

spending fuelled growth and both exports and consumer

spending rose

30

Q4-

2008Q3-

2008

Q4-

2009

Q2-

2010Q2-

2008

Q1-

2009

Q1-

2010Q3-

2009

Q2

2009

Q4-

2008Q3-

2008

Q4-

2009Q2-

2010

Q2-

2008

Q1-

2009Q1-

2010

Q3-

2009

Q2

2009Q4-2

008Q3-

2008

Q4-

2009Q2-

2010

Q2-

2008

Q1-

2009Q1-

2010

Q3-

2009

Q2-

2009

Country profile – Sweden


Description Values





RANK 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

-30

-15

0

15

30

Growth(%)

720,000

740,000

760,000

780,000

800,000

820,000

840,000

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Growth(%)


-10

-5

0

5

10


Growth Export Market (%)Value (billions USD)Value (billions Krona)

Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Cia.gov, Iesingapore.gov.sg , Stats.oecd.org, 2010.



Q4-

2008Q3-

2008

Q4-

2009

Q2-

2010Q2-

2008

Q1-

2009

Q1-

2010Q3-

2009

Q2

2009

Q4-

2008Q3-2

008

Q4-

2009Q2-

2010

Q2-

2008

Q1-

2009Q1-

2010

Q3-

2009

Q2

2009Q4-

2008Q3-

2008

Q4-

2009Q2-

2010

Q2-

2008

Q1-

2009Q1-

2010

Q3-

2009

Q2-

2009

Swedish economy grew by 1.8% in Q2 2010 due to increase in

its domestic demand, consumer spending, inventory

investments and declining unemployment

Its export of goods & services, which make up about half of

Sweden‟s output, expanded by 6% on q-o-q basis, as the

global demand pushed production

Country profile – Austria


Description Values





RANK 21

0

10

20

30

40

-30

-15

0

15

30

Growth(%)

66,000

67,000

68,000

69,000

70,000

71,000

72,000

-2

-1

0

1

2

Growth(%)


-10

-5

0

5

10



Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, 2010. XE.com, Chinadaily.com.cn, Austrian Raiffeisen Banking Group, “Country Reports: Austria”, 2010.



Q4-

2008Q3-2

008

Q4-

2009

Q2-

2010Q2-

2008

Q1-

2009

Q1-

2010Q3-

2009

Q2

2009

Q4-

2008Q3-

2008

Q4-

2009Q2-

2010

Q2-

2008

Q1-

2009Q1-

2010

Q3-

2009

Q2

2009Q4-

2008Q3-

2008

Q4-

2009Q2-

2010

Q2-

2008

Q1-

2009Q1-

2010

Q3-

2009

Q2-

2009

Austria's economy grew 1.7% in Q2; Industrial production rose

strongly from the previous year and the capacity utilization rate

was again over the long- term average, giving significant push

to its economy in the second quarter

Exports and investment were the biggest factors behind the

rise; its exports of goods & services rose by 6% because of the

rising demand from main export destination Germany which

accounts for 1/3rd of its total exports

Country profile – Czech Republic


Description Values





RANK 22

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

-30

-15

0

15

30

Growth(%)

880,000

890,000

900,000

910,000

920,000

930,000

940,000

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

Growth(%)


-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6


Growth Export Market (%)Value (billions USD)Value (billions Koruna)

Inventory replenishment drove the Czech economic upturn in

the second quarter of 2010

The economy returned to positive growth in Q2 2010 on

account of reviving household consumption and the

unexpectedly fast growth spurt in Germany, the country‟s main

trading partner

Being a highly open economy as well as highly export-oriented,

the economy‟s fate is tied to that of the Eurozone

Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Cia.gov, Roubini.com, Stats.oecd.org, 2010.



Q4-

2008Q3-

2008

Q4-

2009

Q2-

2010Q2-

2008

Q1-

2009

Q1-

2010Q3-2

009

Q2

2009

Q4-

2008Q3-

2008

Q4-

2009Q2-

2010

Q2-

2008

Q1-

2009Q1-

2010

Q3-

2009

Q2

2009Q4-

2008Q3-

2008

Q4-

2009Q2-

2010

Q2-

2008

Q1-20

09Q1-

2010

Q3-

2009

Q2-

2009

Country profile – Norway


Description Values





RANK 23

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

-30

-15

0

15

30

Growth(%)

540,000

560,000

580,000

600,000

620,000

640,000

660,000

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

Growth(%)


-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15


Growth Export Market (%)Value (billions USD)Value (billions Kroner)

Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, 2010.



Q4-

2008Q3-

2008

Q4-

2009

Q2-

2010Q2-

2008

Q1-

2009

Q1-

2010Q3-

2009

Q2

2009

Q4-

2008Q3-

2008

Q4-

2009Q2-

2010

Q2-

2008

Q1-

2009Q1-

2010

Q3-

2009

Q2

2009Q4-

2008Q3-

2008

Q4-

2009Q2-

2010

Q2-

2008

Q1-

2009Q1-

2010

Q3-

2009

Q2-

2009

The country is highly dependent on the petroleum sector, which

accounts for nearly half of its exports

GDP grew by 1% q-o-q in Q2 2010, mostly driven by private

sector spending

Economic output was low; struggling due to sluggish external

demand and weak competitiveness

AGENDA

• Summary

• Index


• Appendix






35

While Brazil’s foreign trade levels have increased, its growth rate in export of goods has slowed to 50% of its growth last quarter

Brazil GDP growth – Projected vs. Actual Foreign Trade Vs Domestic Market

Brazil’s Top 10 Trading Partner Countries

Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, Goldmansachs.com, “Dreaming With BRICs”, 2003.

At current growth levels, Brazil has

crossed 2023 GDP levels as per projections

Brazil‟s foreign trade has been approx. 9-17% of its domestic consumption

over the past decade

US, Germany and

Japan represents more

than 50% of Brazil's

total trade

Change in economic

environment / trade

policies of top trading

partners may impact

Brazil‟s trade growth

Country

USA

Germany

Japan

Korea

France

Netherlands

Mexico

Spain

UK

Canada

36%

15%

9%

7%

6%

5%

5%

4%

5%

36%

16%

9%

7%

6%

5%

5%

4%

4%

Q2 2009 Q2 2010

3% 4%


36GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX

Russia’s total trade volume reduced by 4% q-o-q due to a major reduction in its export of goods, hit by weaker prices for its oil and commodity exports

Russia GDP growth – Projected vs. Actual Foreign Trade Vs Domestic Market

Russia’s Top 10 Trading Partner Countries


At current growth levels, Russia has crossed 2011 GDP levels as per projections Russia was worst hit from

crisis amongst the BRIC nations

Russia‟s foreign trade which was approx. half of its domestic consumption

in 2000, is now 1/4th of the domestic consumption and has gradually decreased over the past decade

Germany alone constitutes

1/4th of Russia‟s total trade

and more than 3/4th of its

exports consisting of oil,

natural gas, metals & timber

Change in trade policies of

European Union may impact

Russia‟s trade growth

because of its high

dependence on European

economies

Country

Germany

USA

Netherlands

Turkey

France

Japan

Korea

UK

Spain

Czech

Republic

28%

13%

9%

11%

10%

6%

4%

5%

4%

Q2 2009 Q2 2010

27%

12%

9%

9%

9%

8%

6%

5%

4%

3% 4%



In Q2 2010, India’s growth of export of goods & services fell sharply because of poor performance in certain service sectors

India GDP growth – Projected vs. Actual Foreign Trade Vs Domestic Market

India’s Top 10 Trading Partner Countries


At current growth levels, India has


India‟s foreign trade ration has been gradually increasing and has reached

approx. 1/4th of its domestic consumption over the past decade

US alone constitutes 1/3th

of India‟s total trade

followed by Germany and

Australia

Gems and jewelry

constituted the single

largest export item,

accounting for 16% of

exports

Country

USA

Germany

Australia

Korea

UK

Japan

France

Netherlands

Spain

Turkey

28%

13%

11%

9%

9%

7%

6%

4%

3%

31%

11%

10%

10%

8%

8.%

5%

3%

3%

Q2 2009 Q2 2010

2% 3%



China’s accelerated export growth rate constituted a major component supporting China's rapid economic growth in Q2 2010

China GDP growth – Projected vs. Actual Foreign Trade Vs Domestic Market

At current growth levels, China has


China‟s foreign trade has been approx. 7-11% of its domestic

consumption over the past decade

China’s Top 10 Trading Partner Countries


US, Japan and Korea

represent more than

50% of China's total

trade

Change in economic

environment / trade

policies of top trading

partners may impact

China‟s trade growth

Country

USA

Japan

Korea

Germany

Australia

France

Canada

UK

Mexico

Netherlands

30%

19%

12%

10%

5%

4%

4%

4%

3%

29%

20%

13%

11%

6%

4%

3%

3%

3%

Q1 2009 Q1 2010

3% 3%



AGENDA

• Summary

• Index


• Appendix






40

Appendix - Global Trade Index – Methodology and Data Sheets

Trade related parameters

Market related parameters

Global Trade Index



Base Data FilesMethodology : Two pronged approach encompassing trade and market related parameters is used to calculate the Index

Thank you very much for your attention!