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Global High Speed Rail Market on the Fast Track for Business Development
Franck Leveque, VP Growth Consulting
Donald Ivan, Industry AnalystDonald Ivan, Industry Analyst
Automotive & Transportation
13 April 2011
Functional Expertise
• Over 10 years of consulting experience, especially automotive market research and market strategy development.
Specific expertise in:
• Qualitative and quantitative market analysis – B2B & B2C
• Market modelling & forecasting
• Benchmarking & positioning
• Diversification and new market entry
• Innovation and product development
• Business & market strategy
• Business plan development
Industry Expertise
� Experience base covers a wide range of industry sectors, forming long standing relationships with senior
executives in the
� Automotive & Transportation: Telematics (PV & CV), Powertrain (incl. EV) and involvement in Chassis, Safety,
Today’s Presenter: Franck Leveque
2
Automotive & Transportation: Telematics (PV & CV), Powertrain (incl. EV) and involvement in Chassis, Safety,
Driver Assistance, Aftermarket, Mobility (Rail & Urban Transport)
� Industrial Automation & Electronics: Automation Solutions (PLC, DCS, MES), Welding, Pneumatics, Motors &
Drives, Security.
What I bring to the Team
• Market & Business Consulting Delivery – Common sense & business acumen
• Consulting Project Management – Experience in complex international projects
• Strategy & Business Planning – Fact based high impact recommendations
• Team Management & Leadership – Structured and directive
• Consultative Business Development – Client objective orientated
Career Highlights
• Instrumental in the development of Frost & Sullivan Automotive practice in Europe
• Key member of the strategic global growth consulting team
Education
• Languages: English, French,
• Bachelor Degree (Hon) – Oxford (UK)
Franck LevequeVice President Growth
Consulting
Frost & Sullivan
Germany
Frankfurt am Main
Agenda
1. Global Trends and Highlights
2. Demand Analysis – Track Infrastructure and Rolling Stock
3. Roadmap of High Speed Rail Technologies
Glo
bal H
igh S
peed R
ail
Mark
et
3
4. Case Study – Impact of HSR on Evolving Megacities
5. Competitive Landscape
6. Key Conclusions
Glo
bal H
igh S
peed R
ail
Mark
et
Three Main Trends in UrbanizationDevelopment of Mega Cities, Mega Regions and Mega Corridors
Evolution of Megacities: Three Main Urbanization Trend (Global), 1950 Evolution of Megacities: Three Main Urbanization Trend (Global), 1950 -- 20252025
4
MEGACITY
City With A Minimum Population Of 10
Million
EXAMPLE: London, Istanbul
MEGA REGIONS
Megacities combining with adjacent cities to
form mega regions
(Population over 15 Million)
EXAMPLE: “Jo-Toria” (Johannesburg/Pretoria
and Gauteng region)
MEGA CORRIDORS
Transport corridors connecting two or more
major cities or mega regions
EXAMPLE: Hong Kong-Shenzhen-Guangzhou in
China (Population 120 Million)
Source: Frost & Sullivan
PESTLE Factors Driving High Speed Rail Projects - Governments across the globe
are actively involved in promoting faster, convenient and greener mode of
transportation
Investment in
Transport
Infrastructure
Projects
Multi Modal Transit
Centers
Legislations:
Government and
Organisations Push
European and Asian
OEMs are actively
working towards
bidding international
projects
5
HSR competing with
Low Cost budget
airlines for short-
medium haul
Governments
campaigning for
greener mode of
transport
Social Trends:
Consumer
Preference for HSR:
Safety, Comfort,
Convenience
Evolution of
megacities place
increased demand for
inter-city travel
Regional attractiveness for HSR growth: Europe is the most attractive market despite higher penetration of HSR network
Funding Availability
Penetration Potential
Passenger
Adaptability
0
1
2
3
4
5
High-Speed Rail Market: Regional Analysis for future growth (Global), 2010
6
RegionInvestments between 2010-2020 (%)
Infrastructure Rolling Stock
Europe 40% 54%
Asia Pacific 20% 19%
Middle East & Africa 13% 11%
South America 12% 9%
North America 15% 7%
Technical ExpertiseGovernment Policies
North Amrica Europe Middle East & Africa
Asia Pacific South America
Global High Speed Rail Existing, Under-construction and Planned, 2010
South America
Middle East &
Africa
North America
Asia Pacific
High-Speed Rail Market: Network Planned and Under construction (Global), 2010
14,213 Km
50148 Km
6326
9524 3979
10000
15000
20000
25000
The HSR market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 13.4% between 2010 to
2020.APAC
7
2020
Europe
2010
• Over 60% of new High Speed development will take place in Europe and Asia.
• Though North America has a vision to build over 27,000 kms of high speed rail network, only approx 5500 kms of network
will be true high speed (>250 kmph) by 2020.
65157698
4015
22001310
54942417 4084
0
5000
10000
Europe Asia Pacific North America Middle East & Africa South America
In Operation Under Construction Planned
EU
Demand Analysis: About 46% of rolling stock investment is to happen in Europe followed by Asia Pacific (16%)
3434
5207
6425
14544
842
1994
139
1509
975
5852
1125108
3284
APAC
Turkey
Sweden
Russia
Portugal
Spain
Switzerland
India
Japan
South Korea
ME
SA
NA
APAC
Over the next 10 years China and Spain
combined will invest approx $17 Billion on
rolling stock procurement
5075
17,5157,333
64,332
High-Speed Rail Market: Goal post on new Rolling Stock demand (Global), 2010-2020
8
4239
14544
20092948 3434
1479
666
2259
593
450
1068
3300
Europe Asia Pacific Middle East & Africa South America North America
*Note: Figures are cumulative
2011
EU
Poland
Italy
Germany
France
China
Iran
Saudi ArabiaMorocco
GCC
Brazil
Argentina
USA
EU
2011 to 2020
ME
SA
NA
APAC
EU Europe, 31,751
Asia Pacific, 17,515 Middle East & Africa, 6,425
South America, 5,207
North America, 3,434
Note: All figures are rounded, the base year is 2010 Source:
Frost & Sullivan
2258
31,751
Roadmap of High Speed Rail Technologies: There will be global uniformity in signaling and rolling stock systems used by 2020
Tra
in C
on
tro
l T
rain
Co
ntr
ol Increasing length of the rail network equipped with ERTMS systems across Europe
Ro
llin
g S
toc
kR
oll
ing
Sto
ck
Push Pull locomotive
Distributed Traction Technology
Magnetic levitation (driverless systems)
Global Outlook: Key Technologies (Global), 2005 - 2020
Tilting train Technology
Dynamic Braking Regenerative Braking
9
.
Tra
in C
on
tro
l S
ys
tem
s
Tra
in C
on
tro
l S
ys
tem
s
Increasing length of the rail network equipped with ERTMS systems across Europe
ERTMS Level 2
2005 2010 2015 2020
ERTMS Level 1 ERTMS Level 3
Infr
as
tru
ctu
reIn
fra
str
uc
ture
25kV AC
15kV
Dedicated and completely new track network for High Speed
Track Upgrade and network sharing
Japan - DS-ATC
China - CTCS 2 China -CTCS 3Asia
Europe
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Rolling stock technology trends: While Europe, APAC and ME will move towards distributed traction, The Americas will find Push-Pull more suitable
78%
22%28%
72%55%
45%
17%
83%
EuropeAsia Pacific
Existing Markets
Emerging Markets
2010 20202010 20202010
10
Distributed Traction
72%
28%
40%
60%
Push-Pull
Middle East
& Africa
7%
93%
NIL NIL
South America
North America
NIL
20202010 20202010
20202010
Source: Frost & Sullivan
67%
33%
16%
84%
13%
87%
Case Study: Point to Point connectivity coupled with increased safety and higher
comfort levels will be reasons for a tremendous shift of passenger travel from aviation
to high speed rail
Modal Shift in Passenger traffic after HSR installation: Madrid to Seville
Flying Time 50 mins – 1 hr
Airport transportation, security, and check-in easily triple that figure (point A to B - 2hrs 30 mins)
Comparison of flight time & time taken by AVE to Seville
PlaneRail
11
1991 (Pre HSR) 1994 (Post
HSR)
2020 (Forecast)
Passenger type Share
Holiday 54%
Business 18%
Visiting
Family/Friends16%
Miscellaneous 12%
Passenger profile : Madrid Seville (AVE)
Gro
wth
@ 1
4.9
%
Madrid Seville
*includes point to point travel time from city center to airport and vice versa
2hrs 15 mins
Madrid’s Urban Population
(2010) 5.7 million
Seville’s Urban Population
(2010) 0.75 million
RailHSR
Source: Frost & Sullivan
The growth of high speed rail across regions fuels growth of other support like internet broadband & hospitality
Car RentalsCommute
Internet shopping
PAX Info &
E check in
• Cheaper parking slots at public transit
stations allow passengers to park cars
and board trains
• Unified Ticket solutions like magnetic smart
card that can be used in all modes of mass
transport
• Wireless fidelity connected to high
speed internet enables passengers to
be connected to their smart devices
en-route
12
Smart transport
Food courts
Duty Free
Hotels & Dorms
Station of
Departure
Station of
Arrival
HSR
• Food courts enhances
hospitality, create jobs and generates
revenue for the stations
• Promotes
business & trade
within station
premises
• Enhances tourism
Increases holding
capacity of city
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Global presence of OEMs: The European majors such as Alstom, Bombardier and Siemens have the maximum footprint across the globe and constitute 65% of the global rolling stock market
Consortium
of CRH and CAF
Regional
Players
confined mainly
to Japan and
13
32%
14%
16%
35%
3%
21%
16%
18%
30%5%
10%
Source: Frost & Sullivan.
of CRH and
Siemens
Siemens
AnsaldoBreda
Alstom
Kawasaki heavy Industries
Bombardier
CSR Sifang
CRH
Hyundai Rotem
Hitachi
Nippon Sharyo
Kinki Sharyo
Talgo
to Japan and
East Asia
Alstom
Siemens
Bombardier - Talgo
Shinkansen
Others
2010
Bombardier - Talgo
Shinkansen
Siemens
Alstom
CRH
Others
2020
2020
Key Conclusions: High Speed Rail will be the most favoured transport investment across regions in the next 10 years
Asia to be the second largest market for High speed with market size potential of $172 billionbetween 2010 and 2020.
With an investment of $338 billion on infrastructure and $35 billion on rolling stock, Europe will leadthe HSR development wave over the next 10 years.
Distributed traction technology with speeds > 300 kmph to become the norm across Europe
Europe
Asia Pacific
14
Approx $137 billion and $4 billion will be spent on rail infrastructure and rolling stock respectivelyover the next 10 years in the U.S.
Chinese CRH has gained expertise to function indigenously and will be a significant competitor tothe established European majors.
Given the topography and operating requirements, push pull locomotives will be the most preferredHSR technology in the Americas
The Americas
GIL London – The Global Community of Growth, Innovation and Leadership
Growth, Innovation & Leadership Congress
17-18 May 2011 - Emirates Stadium, London
Opportunity to network with Senior C-Level Executives across 7 industriesincluding: Chemicals & Materials, Automotive &
Transportation, Aerospace, Defence & Security, Energy &
Environment, Healthcare, Automation & Electronics, Information &
Communication Technologies
Through think tanks, interactive sessions and presentations focussed
Transportation Track set to address:
• From High-Speed to High Convergence:
Future Perspectives of Point-to-Point Mobility
http://www.gil-global.com/Europe/agenda.html
15
Through think tanks, interactive sessions and presentations focussed around the topics of Growth, Innovation & Leadership participants gain
fresh perspectives, ideas and solutions to today's burning business challenges
and opportunities.
A Transportation Track includes discussions on "Integrated & Smart Mobility
Solutions" as well as "Development of Hybrid and Electric Buses for Public
Transportation".
Future Perspectives of Point-to-Point Mobility
• Making the Connection: Vision for a Fully
Integrated and Smart Mobility Solutions
• Development of Hybrid and Electric Buses for
Public Transportation
Speakers include:
• Senior Executives across ten Industry tracks
• Martin Ertl, Chief Innovation Officer,
Bombardier Transportation
• John Rushton, Global Business
Development Leader, Intelligent Transport
Services, Global Technology Services, IBM
• Mihai Dorobantu, Senior Manager, Vehicle
Technologies & Innovation Group, Eaton
• Global Rail Market
• Rail ITS
• Rail Passenger
Information
• Entertainment and
Passenger
Communication
Rail Industry: Existing and Forthcoming Research
2011 Strategic Analysis of the Global High Speed Rail Market WIP
2011 Strategic Analysis of the European Rail Infotainment Market WIP
2011 Strategic Analysis of Rail Alternative Power-train Market in Europe WIP
2011 Strategic Analysis of Rail Alternative Power-train Market in N.A WIP
2011 Growth Opportunities in Urban Rail Transportation
2011 Opportunity Analysis for Contactless Ticketing Systems in Europe
2011 Opportunity Analysis in the Passenger Rail Interiors Market
16
Communication
• In-train entertainment
systems2011 Strategic Analysis of the European Rail Telecommunications Market
2011 Executive Analysis of the American Passenger Rolling Stock Market
2009 Strategic Analysis of the European Rail Electrification Market
2009
Strategic Analysis of the European Light Rail and Underground Market - Part 2: Market
Engineering Measurements
2009 Strategic Analysis of the Growth Opportunities in the Indian Rail Industry
2009
Strategic Opportunity Analysis of the Russian Rail Market: Implication for the Global Supply
Chain
2008
Strategic Analysis of the European Light Rail & Underground Market - Part 3: Competitive
Environment Analysis
Existing
Forthcoming
Next Steps
� Request a proposal for Growth Partnership Services or Growth Consulting Services to support you and your team to accelerate the growth of your company. ([email protected])
� Join us at our annual Growth, Innovation, and Leadership 2011: A Frost & Sullivan Global Congress on Corporate Growth occurring in London on 17 – 18 May 2011. (www.gil-global.com)
17
� Register for Frost & Sullivan’s Growth Opportunity Newsletter and keep abreast of innovative growth opportunities (www.frost.com/news)
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Cyril Cromier
Sales Director
Automotive & Transportation Europe
+33 1 42 81 22 44
For Additional Information
Katja FeickCorporate Communications
Automotive & Transportation
+49 (0) 69 [email protected]
20
Franck LevequeVice President - Growth ConsultingAutomotive & Transportation Europe+49 (0)69 770 33 21Bb: +49 (0)151 27 67 08 24 [email protected]
Donald Ivan
Industry Analyst
Automotive & Transportation Europe
+91 44 66814121
