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Final International ConferencePVs in Bloom

Judit Bálint

September 22, 2011Budapest

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Outline

• RES global picture• Energy in Europe• Main EU Dir.• EU 2020 strategy in CEE• Conclusions

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RES global picture

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RES global picturesource: REN21

• In 2010 RE continued to grow strongly in all end-use sectors – power, heat and transport – and supplied an estimated 16% of global final energy consumption

• RES delivered close to 20% of global electricity supply in 2010

• Currently RE capacity comprises about a quarter of total global power-generating capacity 

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RES share of global final energy consumption, 2009

Fossil fuel, 81%

Renew ables, 16%

Nuclear, 2.80%

0.70%0.60%

1.50%

3.40%

10%

Wind/solar/biomass/geothermalpower generation

Biofuels

Biomass/solar/geothermal/hotwater/heating

Hydropower

Traditional biomass

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Trends

Trends reflect strong growth and investment across all market sectors

• Between end 2005 - 2010, total global capacity of many RE technologies grew at average rates ranging from around 15% to nearly 50% annually

• solar PV, wind power, concentrating solar thermal power (CSP), solar water heating systems, biofuels

• Biomass and geothermal for power and heat also grew strongly

• Wind power added the most new capacity, followed by hydropower and solar PV

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Supporting factors

• Reduction of the technology costs (solar, wind, biofuel) and industrial consolidation (biomass, biofuels) have significantly contributed to growth

• Spreading of RES supporting policies, national targets are also supporting the uptake, advancement of RES

• Compared to 55 in 2005, in early 2011 at least 118 countries had some type of policy target or RES support policy at national level

• New industry and job creation opportunities are also driving forces for creating supporting RES policies, which lead to RES advancement

• There are more than 3.5 million direct jobs created in RE industries, about half of them in the biofuels industry, with additional indirect jobs well beyond this figure

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Supporting factors

• Investments made by state-owned multilateral and bilateral development banks

• In 2010 more public money went to RE through development banks than through government stimulus packages

• Total investment in RE reached $211billion in 2010, compared to $160 billion in 2009

• Adding the unreported/estimated $15 billion investment in solar hot water collectors, total investment exceeded $226 billion

• An additional $40–45 billion was invested in large hydropower

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RES share in global electricity production, 2010

67.60%

16.10%

3.30%

13%

Fossil fuel

Hydro power

Other RES (non hydro)

Nuclear

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Country examples• In the USA, RE accounted for about 10.9% of domestic

primary energy production (compared with nuclear’s 11.3%), an increase of 5.6% relative to 2009

• China added an increase of 12% grid connected RES compared with 2009. RE accounted for about 26% of China’s total installed electric capacity, 18% of generation, and more than 9% of final energy consumption in 2010

• Germany met 11% of its total final energy consumption with RES, which accounted for 16.8% of electricity consumption, 9.8% of heat production (mostly from biomass), and 5.8% of transport fuel consumption. Wind power accounted for nearly 36% of renewable generation, followed by biomass, hydropower, and solar photovoltaics (PV)

• Several countries met higher shares of their electricity demand with wind power in 2010, including Denmark (22%), Portugal (21%), Spain (15.4%), and Ireland (10.1%)

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TOP 5 (additions in 2010)

New capacity investment

Wind power

Solar PV Solar hot water/heat

Ethanol production

Biodiesel production

China China Germany China USA Germany

Germany USA Italy Germany Brazil Brazil

USA India Czech Turkey China Argentina

Italy Spain Japan India Canada France

Brazil Germany USA Australia France USA

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TOP 5 (existing capacity end 2010)RES power capacity (no hydro)

RES power capacity (hydro)

Wind power

Biomass power

Geothermal power

Solar PV

Solar hot water/heat

USA China China USA USA Germany

China

China USA USA Brazil Philippines

Spain Turkey

Germany

Canada Germany

Germany

Indonesia

Japan Germany

Spain Brazil Spain China Mexico Italy Japan

India Germany/India

India Sweden Italy USA Greece

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Europe

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Energy in Europe

• Production of primary energy is decreasing =>supplies of raw materials become exhausted and/or producers considered the exploitation of limited resources uneconomical

=> graph

• TPES import 50% => till 2030 increase to 70 %=> graph

• The EU import dependence till 2030 => 90% coal, 80% natural gas

• Main imports from non-member countries=> graph

• Energy production is responsible for 80% of total GHG emission

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Production of primary energy (by fuel type), EU27 (1998=100, tonnes of oil eqv.)

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Energy dependency rate, 2008 (% of net imports, based on tonnes of oil equivalent)

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Primary energy imports, EU27

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Background

• A stable economy needs competitive, reliable and sustainable energy sector

• In 2007 the EC adopted a communication (COM(2007) 1) proposing an energy policy for Europe

• new energy path towards a more secure, sustainable and low-carbon economy

• Based on the EC’s proposal, in March 2007 the Council endorsed the following targets:

• reducing GHG emissions by at least 20 % (compared to 1990) by 2020

• improving energy efficiency by 20 % by 2020• raising the share of renewable energy to 20 % by 2020  • increasing the level of biofuels in transport fuel to 10 % by 2020

• RES is a key element in reducing fuel dependency, CO2 emissions and decoupling energy costs from oil prices

• EE is a tool for constraining demand in the energy sector and at end-use

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GHG emissions, base year 1990-[t2020_30]

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EUs energy intensity

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Share of RE in gross final energy consumption - [t2020_31]

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Relevant EU Directives

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Supporting implementation of EU Directives related to EU Climate and Energy Package

1.EU-ETS Directive -20% of 1990, or -14% of 2005 level GHG emission, to be achieved mostly by using RES and decreasing energy&GHG intensity

2.Effort Sharing Decision –ESD GHG emission from non-EU-ETS sectors by new EU MSs can

be increased -targets depend on GDP/capita

3.RES Directive- targets are different for countries, great potential in most CEE countries, main barrier is lack of financing (biomass-competing with agriculture, wind-grid problems, geothermal-expensive, solar panels-increasing)

4.Carbon Capture and Storage-CCS Relevant for countries having high share of coal as resource

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Dir. 2009/28/EC, RES Dir.

Establishes a common framework for the production and promotion of energy from renewable sources

• MS have to achieve RES% in their gross final consumption by 2020

• RES at least 10 % of final energy consumption in the transport sector

• NREAPs• Cooperation between MS:

• Statistical transfer; joint projects; joint support schemes

• Guarantee of origin• Access to and operation of the grids• Biofuels and bioliquids (sustainability)

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EU RES in 2020

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EU RES in 2010

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Meeting 2010 targets

AT BE BU CY CZ DK EE FI FE DE EL HU IE

Electricity

Transport

IT LV LT LU MT NL PL PT RO SK SI ES SE UK

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EU 2020 strategies in CEE

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Opportunities to promote EU 2020 Strategy in Central and Eastern Europe

• Relatively high energy intensity• Limited –although increasing-use of RES• Lower rates of waste recycling • Obsolete public transport infrastructure• Relatively strong agriculture and forestry

sectors• Good potential for the utilisation of domestic

renewables• The countries have very good potential to

create a large number of ‘green/low carbon jobs’ in their relevant sectors

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Energy efficiency in CEE

• Decades of subsidized energy prices • High energy intensity• Old and very poor building stock from the energy

perspective• Large proportion built with industrial technology• Use energy inefficiently and contribute to GHG

emission• District Heating (DH) widespread, but also in need

of modernisation (both company and user side)• Financial barriers to make EE projects

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Energy efficiency in buildings –

• Why is it important?•Buildings: huge potential for EE improvement• Improving efficiency leads to decarbonising

energy and reduction of GHG emissions at a relatively low cost

•Negative cost potentials in the buildings sector in economies in transition are larger than those in all other sectors combined

•Expected positive impact is to create a large number of ‘green/low carbon jobs’ in their relevant sectors in the use of

• new innovative technologies (RES) and • green/low carbon services

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Technological options for EE

• Insulation of roofs, walls, foundations• Changing windows and doors• Installing programmable thermostats• Measuring the individual consumption of

district and central heating• Lightning• Energy saving appliances/equipments,

standby etc.

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Technological options for RES

• Utilizing possibilities given by nature:• Natural/artificial shading• draught• Warming through sun• Collecting rain water

• Solar panels• Photovoltaic cells• Heat pumps• Geothermal energy• Small wind turbine• Passive houses

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Conclusions

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Conclusions

• Existing EU and international climate and energy policies can make a difference, but their simple existence is not enough for a secure & sustainable energy future

• Current state of international climate and energy debate’s have increased the risk and cost of achieving the 2 degree C goal

• Enabling conditions, motivated local leader are needed for climate and energy actions at local level

• Relying on fossil energy supply is not the future (harmful effect, scarcity and increasing prices)

• Renewables are entering the mainstream, but long-term support is needed to further boost their competitiveness

• Increased EE is needed to decrease the energy demand in the whole energy supply chain and at end users

• EE and RES is the future, together with devoted, motivated market actors for securing a livable planet for the next generation

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Thank you for your attention!