© 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 1

© 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 2 © 2009 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited

Three Social Thunderstorms

George F. Colony CEO, Forrester Research

December 8, 2011

© 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 3

Thunderstorm One: Death of the Web

© 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 4 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited

P

S

N

© 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 5 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited

© 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 6 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited

App Internet

PC

Web/

Cloud

© 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 7

Microsoft

Oracle

SAP

Services Entrant

SAAS Horde

IBM

Software Entrant

Platform Entrant

Google

Salesforce.com

HP

Cisco

Dell

Facebook

Apple

Nokia

RIM

Renren

Baidu

Yandex

Software AG

Siemens

Deutsche Telecom Orange

Amazon

© 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 8

The App Internet Ecosystems War

© 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 9

Thunderstorm Two: Social Saturation

© 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 10

© 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 11

© 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 12

© 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 13

© 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 14

Social adoption in Europe and the US

74% 73%

79%

82% 81% 86%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2009 2010 2011

Social adoption (EU7) Social adoption (US)

Base: Online adults

Source: European Technographics Online Benchmark Survey, Q3 2011 and the North American Technographics

Online Benchmark Survey, Q3 2011

© 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 15

73% 76% 78% 79%

84% 85% 87%

95%

76%

85%

93%

86% 88% 93% 94% 95% 97% 98% 98%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

Social adoption

Source: Forrester Research

Base: Online adults

Urban data only

© 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 16

What saturation means

Yes, we are in a bubble…for social startups

We are moving to a post social (POSO) world

POSO startups will dominate.

© 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 17

Thunderstorm Three: Enterprise

© 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 18

5%

24%

22%

25%

25%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Don't know

Not interested

Interested but no plans

Planning to implement

Implemented

Most companies are moving towards social

What are your firm’s plans to adopt a social media platform?

Source: Forrsights Global Budgets And Priorities Tracker Survey, Q2 2011

Base:2,741 technology decision-makers

72%

© 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 19

Why enterprise social?

Better customer interaction (31%)

Customer self-service (19%)

Fosters internal and external collaboration (18%)

Source: Forrsights Global Budgets And Priorities Tracker Survey, Q2 2011

Base:2,741 technology decision-makers

© 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 20

What enterprise means

Beyond Sharepoint…lies the next wave of social opportunity

A rich and growing professional service market emerges

A major test of marketing and BT collaboration

© 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 21

When the skies clear…

A new social platform – App Internet

New social players – POSO

New social opportunities – Enterprise

Social will thrive, but in an evolved form.

© 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 22