Gas Development Master PlanStructure of the Demand and Supply Scenarios (DASS) Component

Capacity Building Workshop

Bali, 1-2 July 2013

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Presentation Outline

• Outline of the Demand and Supply Scenario (DASS)

• Descriptions of each part of DASS:– Input sheets

– Control panel

– Calculations sheets

– Outputs and results

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Outline of DASSINPUT DATA

Supply input sheet

Demand input sheet

Global parameter sheet

CALCULATION

CONTROL PANEL

Demand calculation sheet

Supply calculation sheet

OUTPUTS

Demand by region and by sector

Annual production by

region

TIMSupply-demand

graph (initial)

SCENARIOS

Input from TIMAdjustments

sheet

Revenue calculation sheet

Supply-demand graph (adjusted)

Government revenue

Price input sheet

Price calculation sheet

Export input sheet

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Input Sheets in DASS – Overview

INPUT DATA

Supply input sheet

Demand input sheet

Global parameter

sheet

Price input sheet

Export input sheet

Key issues: selecting data to be used as parameters in the model, and processing the raw data to match inputs required in the model

Hard coded data sheets, some allows for different scenarios, for example:

– Industrial demand has base case, low and high cases based on MIGAS estimates of contracted, committed and potential demand figures

– Base case, low and high cases for production profiles for each region

– Different price scenarios based on IEA crude oil or based on natural gas imports

– Different estimates for GDP growths and elasticity

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Input Sheets in DASS – Demand assumptions

INPUT DATA

Supply input sheet

Demand input sheet

Global parameter

sheet

Price input sheet

Export input sheet

Power sector:– Used PLN RUPTL gas demand

estimates up to 2020

– Projected to 2070 using income elasticities

Other demand sectors:– Used MIGAS gas balance for

demand estimates up to 2025

– Projected to 2070 using income and price elasticitesand domestic gas price growth

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Input Sheets in DASS – Export assumptions

INPUT DATA

Supply input sheet

Demand input sheet

Global parameter

sheet

Price input sheet

Export input sheet

• Use MIGAS gas balance data on “contracted” export volumes for each regions for up to 2025

• Projected to 2070 using assumed export growth rates, differentiated between pipeline export and LNG

• These figures will be adjusted based on unmet demand and excess supply from TIM

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Input Sheets in DASS – Supply assumptions

INPUT DATA

Supply input sheet

Demand input sheet

Global parameter

sheet

Price input sheet

Export input sheet

• Using estimated production figures for each region for:– Existing gas productions

– Gas production in development

– Potential gas development

• Estimates of low and high cases using assumed percentages to reduce (for low case) or increase (for high case) production

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Input Sheets in DASS – Price assumptions

INPUT DATA

Supply input sheet

Demand input sheet

Global parameter

sheet

Price input sheet

Export input sheet

• Using data from:– IEA world energy outlook as base data to calculate growth rate

– Use current domestic wholesale gas price

– Different growth rates scenarios can be chosen

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Input Sheets in DASS – Global parameters

INPUT DATA

Supply input sheet

Demand input sheet

Global parameter

sheet

Price input sheet

Export input sheet

Hard coded inputs for parameters such as:– Income elasticities

– GDP growth rates

– Price elasticities

Provides for three levels of scenarios: base case, low case and high case

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Control Panel – Scenario Selection

CONTROL PANEL

SCENARIOS A separate sheet where users can select demand, production, price and policy scenarios

Dropdown menu to

select production

scenarios: base/low/high

Dropdown menu to select

demand scenarios:

base/low/high

Individual demand scenarios for

different demand sectors

Dropdown menu to

select price scenarios

Dropdown menu to

select policy scenario,

domestic or export

priority

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Calculations Sheets in DASS – Overview

CALCULATION

Demand calculation

sheet

Supply calculation

sheet

Adjustments sheet

Revenue calculation

sheet

Price calculation

sheet

Key issues: some calculations need to be done in several steps to avoid long complicated formulas

Different calculations sheets to calculate:– Demand projection

– Export projection

– Production/supply projection

– Government revenues

Results are recorded in a separate sheet for either:– Transfer to TIM, or

– Graphs representations

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Calculations Sheets in DASS

CALCULATION

Demand calculation

sheet

Supply calculation

sheet

Adjustments sheet

Revenue calculation

sheet

Price calculation

sheet

Demand:

• Demand growth = income elasticity x GDP growth +

price elasticity x domestic price growth

Supply:

• Takes into account production and remaining reserves in each regions

Government revenue =

Government revenue from exports –

Cost of unmet domestic demand +

Economic value of gas consumed

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Outputs of DASS – Initial Demand and Supply

OUTPUTS

Demand by region and by

sector

Annual production by

region

Supply-demand graph

(initial)

Supply-demand graph

(adjusted)

Government revenue

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Outputs of DASS – Gas Balance before and after

OUTPUTS

Demand by region and by

sector

Annual production by

region

Supply-demand graph

(initial)

Supply-demand graph

(adjusted)

Government revenue

Grey area shows

excess supply

from this region After running TIM, excess

supply is now transferred

(purple bars) to other region(s) TIM only runs

to 2040

If transfers exceed

production, could mean that

this region imports gas and

then transfer to other

region(s)

Example from Central and South Sumatera

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Outputs of DASS – Government Revenues

OUTPUTS

Demand by region and by

sector

Annual production by

region

Supply-demand graph

(initial)

Supply-demand graph

(adjusted)

Government revenue

Discounted costs,

to 2050

Undiscounted costs, to

2070 – very large unmet

demand (depends on

scenario)