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Presented by:
John Bowers Petroleum Development Consultants, UK
Shangri-La Hotel, Jakarta
21 June 2012
Gas Development Master Plan Gas Infrastructure Development
2
Contents
• Key objectives
• Key technical issues
• Transportation Systems Transmission pipelines
Distribution systems
LNG
CNG Ships
• Gas Utilisation
3
Key objectives
• Gas Development Master Plan will focus on:
– Gas demand-supply projections
– Optimum gas field development to meet growing demand
– Substitution of export gas with domestic supply
– Optimizing flow patterns from existing fields to demand centres
– Optimizing the expansion of gas supply and transmission infrastructure
– Recommending policy, legal, regulatory and institutional framework
To produce:
A proposed investment timeline through 2025 along with potential projects that need to be financed - including identification of the least cost and most optimal gas-based solutions for Indonesia
4
Transmission & Distribution Plan
• There is an existing plan for gas transmission & distribution development which we will analyse.
• The supply & demand basis for that plan is not completely clear on initial review.
• There is also another study prepared on behalf of ADB which we will take into account.
• Our GDMP will also determine the interconnectivity requirements essential for load management and security of supply.
5
Key technical issues
• Supply
• Location and volume of gas available for local/ domestic market;
• Spare LNG capacity after export commitments;
• Demand
• Location of major consumers;
• Appropriate markets/ utilisation;
• Load duration & load factor
• Transportation systems
• Appropriate to circumstances;
• Load factors and load management;
• Security of supply;
6
Key technical issue - 1
• Distances are the key issue for transportation?
Gas supply locations
Principal ‘domestic’ demand
Pipelines exist
700 km
1800 km
7
Gas Transportation Systems
• Comparative relationship between transport systems
• Pipelines
Short/ medium distance
High capacity
• LNG
Long distances
High capacity
• CNG
Medium/ long distance
Small capacity
Pipelines LNG
CNG
Stranded
Gas V
olu
me
Distance to Market
8
Key technical issue - 2
• Load Profile
• Daily (diurnal), see example
• Annual (seasonal swing)
• For Indonesia, daily profile most important
• Load duration curve
• Relationship between generating capacity requirements and capacity utilization.
• Flat line means high utilisation.
• Also applies to gas pipeline
• Load factor (%)
• = Average load/ Peak load
• High LF vital for efficient power generation
• Low LF requires larger diameter pipelines for higher flow rates plus storage capacity to meet peak flows
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24
POW
ER D
EMA
ND
HOUR OF DAY
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
BASE LOAD
9
Pipeline Transmission systems
• Reasonable capital cost depending on:
• Distances between supply points and demand centres
• ease of construction – topography/ terrain
• Operating pressure
• Low operating costs:
• Low maintenance, high reliability
• Long life
• Inherent linepack storage for load management
• Interconnection gives high security of supply
• Less flexible if location of demand changes
10
Distribution systems
• High capital cost & low capacity depending on:
• Pipe length & diameter
• Restricted operating pressures - safety
• Urban conditions, ease of construction, traffic,
• No inherent storage – designed to meet peak load
• Low operating costs:
• Low maintenance, good reliability
• Long life
• Long term investment
11
LNG Systems
• High capital cost
• Need spare liquefaction capacity to be viable
• Onshore re-gas terminal or FSRU
• Ships
• High operating costs
• Shipping costs
• Cryogenic materials, expensive to replace
• High maintenance but generally reliable
• Medium life
• Inherent storage for load management
• Flexible location (FSRUs)
12
CNG Shipping
• Reasonable capital cost depending on;
• Compression requirements
• Capacity
• Reasonable operating costs, but
• Reliability?
• Maintenance?
• Medium life?
• Low capacity,
• Inherent storage but delivery scheduling critical without fixed storage
• Relatively unproven concept
13
Gas Utilisation
Power generation, base load or peak shaving
Fertilisers, feedstock, cement;
Energy intensive industrial developments
• Households & commercial premises
? Only for cooking, water heating
? High investment, low revenue
• Vehicle fuel (CNG) dependent on:
? Availability of filling stations
? Cost of conversion