Future trends jan12 final

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A brief overview of social web trends that we can anticipate taking up increasing air-space over the next 12 months. Some trends (e.g. Big Data) have wider implications than 'social web' but are included for completeness.

Text of Future trends jan12 final

Steve Dale Collabor8now Ltd

Key themes for 2012

Lets start with some statistics.

2.1 billion Internet users

Source: http://royal.pingdom.com/2012/01/17/internet-2011-in-numbers/

5.9 billion mobile subscriptions

Apples iPad share of global tablet web traffic 88%

1 trillion video playbacks on YouTube

201 billion videos viewed per month on Google sites

100 billion photos on Flickr

350 million Facebook users log-in via mobile phone

71% of email traffic is spam

555 million websites

1. Social Networks

90 million users*, growing at 625k daily. Est. 293 million users by end 2012

225 million accounts**, 120 million users, over 250 million tweets/day

132 million users (mainly B2B)

*Source: http://edition.cnn.com/2012/01/19/tech/social-media/google-plus-users/index.html and

http://venturebeat.com/2012/01/20/google-skews-google-plus-statistics/

**Some may be bots. Source: http://phill.co/social-media/social-media-statistics-dec-2011-video-infographic

Facebook

800 million users

1 billion users by

end 2012

30 million UK

users (almost 50% of pop.)

Avg time spent on site: 7.5hrs/month, up from 4.5hrs/month in 2010

Recently added Timeline feature

Social media continues to evolve, bringing new opportunities for multimedia social platforms. Sites that offer new and

personalised user experiences will have a major influence on social sharing and internet traffic.

2. Curation

Social Curators use their insight into a particular audience to determine what

might interest them

3. Collaborative Consumption

4. Big Data

mobile phones in use by end 2012

items of content shared on Facebook every month

projected growth of data per year vs. growth in global IT spending

potential annual consumer surplus from using personal location data globally

billion potential value to Europes public sector administration - more than the GDP of Greece

data analysts and more data savvy managers needed to take advantage of big data (in US).

to buy a disk drive that can store all the worlds music

Source: McKinsey Global Institute, May 2011

Big Data - what is it and where does is come

from?

Datasets so large they are difficult to work with with using standard database management tools

Larger and larger datasets allow analysts to spot business trends and opportunities.

Growing exponentially - sources include mobile devices, cameras, RFID, medical, music, wireless sensor networks, real-time/geospatial tracking, location-based services ebooks etc.

More and more data being stored in the Cloud

5. Visualisation & Infographics

6. Game-ification

Connects and engages people in new ways

7. Mobile Platforms

Source: Morgan Stanley Internet Trends Report 4 Dec 2010

Mobile will be bigger than desktop Internet within 5 years.

More people own mobile phones than tooth-brushes!

8. Apps

2005 2010 Design for PC with consideration

for Mobile

2011/12/? Design for Mobile with

consideration for PC

9. Location-based Services

10. Augmented Reality

Star Chart: gives you your very own virtual star chart on your iPhone. Just point your iPhone to the sky and this app will tell you

what you are looking at.

Cyclopedia: adds Wikipedia information to your reality. When you move your iPhone around, the app will automatically dig up information and display it

on your screen.

Panoramascope: gives you information about your surroundings (mountains, their names).

Theodolite: a little app that acts as your compass, GPS, map, and two-axis inclinometer. Great for hiking and active sports in general.

New York Nearest Places: lets you explore New York like never before. And you have

seen nothing yet.

Golfscape GPS Rangefinder: an augmented reality range finder for Golf lovers. It covers 35K+ courses. It displays the distance from

front, center, and back of green.

To Summarise (1)

Social Media is ubiquitous. More businesses are adding social media links and information to their websites; consumers now look for these links. Visiting a company's Facebook page or Twitter profile has become as important as reading reviews on the business.

Facebook will have 1 billion users by end 2012 and will continue to dominate the social network space. More apps and integration with external services will encourage shift from conversations to sharing and engagement = users spend more time on site.

Rapid growth of companies/services offering new and interesting ways for people to share information (e.g. Tumblr, Pinterest)

Help with content overload. More apps and services providing knowledge and information curation, aggregation and filtering.

Apps will inherit the earth! Users more familiar (and trusting) of software distribution channels (app stores). Users happy to discard old/legacy apps and download new ones that meet changing needs and requirements.

Gami-ificaton techniques will find their way into more social networks and corporate websites in order to engage and retain users/customers.

Augmented reality apps will offer an awesome user experience. Location-based services will thrive and provide new, more compelling, more efficient services with lower B2C transaction costs. Privacy issues will deter some users.

More opportunities for micro-entrepreneurs. Peer to peer on the rise; more lending, sharing, bartering and recycling opportunities offered via Collaborative Consumption.

Were going to continue to generate data faster than it can be consumed or understood. Most of it will not be held inside the enterprise. Information visualisation techniques and intelligent analytics will aid users interpretation and understanding. Opportunities and challenges for knowledge & information professionals.

Mobile platforms will soon overtake the desktop PC as the preferred interface to the Internet and www. Software being designed for mobile, with consideration for PC, not the other way around.

To Summarise (2)

It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent that survives. It is the one that is most adaptable to change. Charles Darwin

And finally.

The world is changing very fast. Big will not beat small anymore. It will be the fast beating the slow. Rupert Murdoch

Never make predictions, especially about the future.

Casey Stengel, baseball player and manager, 1891 - 1975

Email: Steve.dale@collabor8now.com

Twitter: @stephendale

Profile: http://about.me/stephendale

Sources/References

Morgan Stanley Internet Trends: http://www.morganstanley.com/institutional/techresearch/pdfs/Internet_Trends_041210.pdf

Internet World Stats: http://www.internetworldstats.com

Royal Pingdom: http://royal.pingdom.com/2012/01/17/internet-2011-in-numbers/

McKinsey, Big Data: The Next Frontier For Innovation....

http://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/publications/big_data/pdfs/MGI_big_data_full_report.pdf

Emerging Transition to Social Business Models - Dion Hincliffe, Dachis Group:

http://www.dachisgroup.com/author/dion-hinchcliffe/

Edition:http://edition.cnn.com/2012/01/19/tech/social-media/google-plus-users/index.html

Venturebeat: http://venturebeat.com/2012/01/20/google-skews-google-plus-statistics/

Phil.co: http://phill.co/social-media/social-media-statistics-dec-2011-video-infographic

ComScore:

http://www.comscore.com/Products_Services/Product_Index/Media_Metrix_Suite/Media_Metrix_Core_Reports

Go-Gulf.com (60 seconds) http://www.go-gulf.com/blog/60-seconds

Dilbert: www.dilbert.com/

Collaborative Consumption: http://collaborativeconsumption.com/

Other photos and images sourced from Google images and iStock Photos.