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10
the
EVOLUTION of the Planned Community
27 October 2011
Jim Heid, Founder
Urban Green ®
10 Slides
6 7 2 7 Minutes
6 Questions
DISTILLED
2 Futures
Urban Land Institute Fall Meeting | October 2011
Do we still need planned communities? #1
YES.
“The U.S. is now on track to reach 400 Million residents by mid century – we actually add more people than China from now to 2050.” Robert E Lang
Professor and Director, Brookings Mountain West
University of Nevada, Las Vegas, The Lincy Institute
#1 Do we still need planned communities?
Planned Community as a Better Alternative
Planned Communities
Ad Hoc Subdivisions
Multiple Housing Options
Yes – 5 minimum; price, life stage and own/ rent options
One builder, changed elevations
Open Space Integrated hierarchy and
lifestyles A park
Community Hardware Third places & daily goods
services Limited
Stewardship
Community Life and environmental
None
Sustainability Integrated , systems approach Checklist approach
Urban Land Institute Fall Meeting | October 2011
Why does right, feel so …. #2 wrong?
Why does right, feel so … wrong? #2
A Decade of New Home Sales 2001-2010
US Total1 8,580,000
%
Top Ten Planned Communities2 130,386
1.5%
Top Twenty Planned Communities3 187,687
2.2%
All Planned Communities (estimated)4 800,636 9.3%
IT’S NOT JUST A FEELING
1 Source: US Census Bureau 2 Souce: RCLCo Top Selling Master Planned Communities Data, 2001-2010 3 Source: RCLCo Top Selling Master Planned Communities Data, 2001-2007, 2008-2010 extrapolated by UrbanGreen 4 Source: UrbanGreen, extrapolated from RCLCo data by 2001-2010
Urban Land Institute Fall Meeting | October 2011
Infill or greenfield? #3
© UrbanGreen 2004
70-65% Greenfield
15-20% Suburban densification
10-15% Urban infill
New housing location projection ca 2004
Population growth1 by metropolitan location 2000-2010
Inner Ring Suburb
(+5.9 M)
Mature Suburb (+3.5 M)
=1,000,000
People
Emerging Suburb (+5.1 M)
Exurb (+1.5 M)
Urban Core (-.3 M)
1 Source: Robert E Lang. Based on 416 counties in the 50 largest metro areas. These contain 53.7% of total U.S. population.
Infill or greenfield? #3 BOTH.
Place or strategy? #4
Urban Land Institute Fall Meeting | October 2011
• Your context and what you do with it
• How you engage potential partners
• Sustainability gateways
• How you ‘craft’ community
Place or strategy? #4 DEPENDS.
Urban Land Institute Fall Meeting | October 2011
Can community be planned? #5
….then
Can community be planned? #5 IF WE ADAPT.
….then going forward…..
Can community be planned? #5 IF WE ADAPT.
Riverside, Reston and
Rincon Hill
Redefining Planned Community…From Place to Portfolio
New
Communities Retrofit
Communities Infill Communities
RIVERSIDE RESTON TOWN CENTER RINCON HILL
YEAR 1869 1988 2005+
CONTEXT Greenfield Suburb Urban Core
Redefining Planned Community…From Place to Portfolio
New
Communities Retrofit
Communities Infill Communities
RIVERSIDE RESTON TOWN CENTER RINCON HILL
YEAR 1869 1988 2005+
CONTEXT Greenfield Suburb Urban Core
SIZE (ACRES) 1600 460 51
POPULATION 9,000 7,500 10,000
Redefining Planned Community…From Place to Portfolio
New
Communities Retrofit
Communities Infill Communities
RIVERSIDE RESTON TOWN CENTER RINCON HILL
YEAR 1869 1988 2005+
CONTEXT Greenfield Suburb Urban Core
SIZE (ACRES) 1600 460 51
POPULATION 9,000 7,500 10,000
CRAFTING COMMUNITY Create
Village Center Add
Urban Center Leverage
Urban Core
Redefining Planned Community…From Place to Portfolio
New
Communities Retrofit
Communities Infill Communities
RIVERSIDE RESTON TOWN CENTER RINCON HILL
YEAR 1869 1988 2005+
CONTEXT Greenfield Suburb Urban Core
SIZE (ACRES) 1600 460 51
POPULATION 9,000 7,500 10,000
CRAFTING COMMUNITY Create
Village Center Add
Urban Center Leverage
Urban Core
STRUCTURE PRIVATE PRIVATE/Public Public/Private
Redefining Planned Community…From Place to Portfolio
New
Communities Retrofit
Communities Infill Communities
RIVERSIDE RESTON TOWN CENTER RINCON HILL
YEAR 1869 1988 2005+
CONTEXT Greenfield Suburb Urban Core
SIZE (ACRES) 1600 460 51
POPULATION 9,000 7,500 10,000
CRAFTING COMMUNITY Create
Village Center Add
Urban Center Leverage
Urban Core
STRUCTURE Private Private/Public Public/Private
SUSTAINABLE GATEWAY Stormwater Jobs Housing Transportation
Urban Land Institute Fall Meeting | October 2011
What Does it All Mean? #6
represent a superior social & environmental alternative to sprawl
Urban Land Institute Fall Meeting | October 2011
Because Greenfield Planned Communities
represent a superior social & environmental alternative to sprawl
Urban Land Institute Fall Meeting | October 2011
Because Greenfield Planned Communities
they should grow as a percentage of greenfield development, as total greenfield development diminishes
Urban Land Institute Fall Meeting | October 2011
Because Retrofit + Infill Planned Communities
represent the best method to regenerate urban areas quickly, and at scale
Urban Land Institute Fall Meeting | October 2011
Because Retrofit + Infill Planned Communities
they provide a renewed purpose for our industry to make a difference.
represent the best method to regenerate urban areas quickly, and at scale
Urban Land Institute Fall Meeting | October 2011
Infill communities Outlook - Good
New communities Outlook - Limited to Good
Retrofit communities Outlook - Very Good
What Does it All Mean?
NEW OPPORTUNITY. #6
