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Dr Patrick Dixon
Chairman Global Change Ltd
Transforming Lifestyles Within a Generation
Ending the Tobacco Epidemic
Patrick Dixon is Chairman of Global Change Ltd, Author of
15 books and has been ranked one of the 20 most
influential business thinkers alive today (Thinkers 50)
Future of Anti-Smoking campaigns - Winning the
argument, health education, & cancer prevention - for
northwest England health promotions (2009)
500 videos of keynotes
www.youtube.com/user/pjvdixon
Over 4 million views
Dixon’s Futurist Website
www.globalchange.com/
14 million unique visitors.
Wild Cards: Risk Management
Low probability, high impact events
£16 billion a year UK market
1 trillion cigarettes traded a year
between nations - $400 billion
1 in 10 cigarettes is smuggled
£1.6bn turnover for crime gangs
Tobacco industry needs
1,600 more teenagers
and 400 more adults
to become addicted
every week to maintain
sales lost by deaths
and people giving up.
Tobacco industry is
suffering because early
teenage smoking has
halved and total numbers
smokers fallen by 20% in
decade
Tobacco industry is
suffering because early
teenage smoking has
halved and total numbers
smokers fallen by 20% in
decade
industry is
suffering because early
teenage smoking has
halved and total numbers
smokers fallen by 20% in
decade
Future is about
Future is about Emotion
Imagine a new drug arrives in UK – which
seems almost as addictive as heroin. More
than 10% teenagers hooked by 18 years. Each
will die an average of 10 years early
75% of smokers want to quit – few other
industries would cope with so many
dissatisfied customers
…..one of main sources of cigarettes for
non-addict teenagers is OTHER older
smokers – most of whom want to QUIT
We are celebrities to our own children
Power of example to harm or kill
Power of Example
or how to kill your own children
And harm your grandchildren….
Hidden costs to society 8 days more sick leave a year than non-smokers
£2.5 billion sick leave and lost productivity
Link to Poverty and Poor Education
Low income, gender and ethnicity
Incidence of smoking decreases with income
Fewer start
More stop
Big differences in different communities and gender
5% Bangladeshi women
25% of Irish women
40% of Bangladeshi men
We know anti-smoking action works
We know what works Smoking among 11-15 year olds halved in 12 years to 2006
2 million
fewer adult
smokers in
England in 10
years
20% drop
Step by step outlawing of “normal” adult
behavior is almost without precedent
Rapid Change - Future 2003/4 - Most tobacco advertising and
sponsorship banned
2007 - Minimum age to sell raised to 18 years
2008 – Stronger picture health warnings on
packets
2008 – Power to ban cigarette sales for a year if
persistent selling to under 18 year olds
Robots are usual source of tobacco for 10% of
those children aged 11–15 who said they smoked.
Remove legal right to sell alcohol as
well as tobacco if they repeatedly sell
under-age tobacco
Why delay?
Health Act 2009 requires tobacco products to be removed
from display.
Large retailers from October 2011
Small retailers from October 2013 – why not 2012?
New ways to break the habit
Professional help eg
NHS makes success 4
more likely
But at what cost per
person ‘cured’ ?
Irony: habit itself costs
average £1,800 yet
many smokers may not
be prepared to spend
same to get free
Prices lower than 1973 in real terms
Compelling economics of action
If all targets met
NHS net savings by 2015
$2bn total NHS saving by 2020
£14bn savings to wider society by 2020
But what would it really cost to achieve this?
Inertia and
Momentum
Takes a decade to
touch a nation
Two decades to
change a generation
And it will change
Patrick Dixon is Chairman of Global Change Ltd, Author of
15 books and has been ranked one of the 20 most
influential business thinkers alive today (Thinkers 50)
Future of Anti-Smoking campaigns - Winning the
argument, health education, & cancer prevention - for
northwest England health promotions (2009)
500 videos of keynotes
www.youtube.com/user/pjvdixon
Over 4 million views
Dixon’s Futurist Website
www.globalchange.com/
14 million unique visitors.