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Presentation on the fragmentation of voice, voice and messaging services in telecoms. Discusses the inevitable move from telephone calls to new forms of voice interaction, the importance of WebRTC and the irrelevance of new bureaucratic-driven telecom standards like RCS/joyn
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For IP Communications, Ubiquity is Dead
Dean Bubley, Disruptive Analysis
BICS Mobility in Action, Bruges, Oct 29th 2013
[email protected] @disruptivedean
About Disruptive Analysis
London-based analyst house & strategic consulting firm
Cross-silo, contrarian, visionary, independent
Advisor to telcos, vendors, regulators & investors
Covering VoIP since 1997 & 3G/4G mVoIP since 2007
Critic of RCS since 2008
Published report on “Telco-OTT Strategies”, Feb 2012
New report on WebRTC, Feb 2013
Workshops on Future of Voice & TelcoOTT
Twitter @disruptivedean Blog: disruptivewireless.blogspot.com
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013 October 2013
Neuroscience explains reluctance to change
Predictable irrationality
Endowment effect
Optimism bias
Confirmation bias
Defence of belief systems
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013 Oct 2013
Voice & messaging are fragmenting
Convergence
& standards
Fragmentation & differentiation
Telephony & SMS will continue to exist, but there will be NO
more standard, interoperable services
Comforting myths
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013 October 2013
QoS is critical
Interoperability is essential
Minutes / messages = value
“Voice” = ubiquitous phone calls
Uncomfortable reality
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013 October 2013
QoS is only sometimes critical
Interoperability is essential
for basic lowest-common
denominator services only
Intention & outcomes = value
Phone calls are
becoming less useful
In the beginning – “Proxi-phone”
Near voice
Contextual
Managed interruptions
Background +/-
Sync + Async
Not “session” based
Etiquette, not regulation
Varying importance
Natural
Old distant voice [Tele-phone]
Strictly session-based
Limited context
Background negative
One-size fits all
Unnatural etiquette
Heavily regulated
... but eventually ubiquitous
>100 years ago
Pretty good for the 19th century...
“Hegemony
of the
caller”
... but really not good enough for 21st century
Voice ≠ Telephony
• Now: 2G & 3G • Future: Smartphones & LTE
Voice
Telephony
Voice
Telephony
Video, context, sense Video
Gaming, CEBP,
surveillance, social
voice, TV voice etc
Voicemail
Conferencing
PTT
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013 October 2013
Comms moving “in-context”
Fragmentation of communications models
Standalone calls
Non-call comms
Embedded app/web
calls
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013 Oct 2013
Circuit IP
Good to have “lowest
common denominator”
Ubiquity no/negative
benefit
Maybe ubiquitous
in a niche
Intent & context....
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013 October 2013
Why do people make
phone calls (or send
messages, share media
or use video), anyway?
Intention & purpose
Exchange information
Sell to a customer
Flirt
Manage staff
Gossip
Tell a story
Show off
Feel connected
Lie or pretend
Self-expression
Context
On the sofa
In a meeting
While online
Using an app
On the street
On public transport
In a bar
Multi-tasking
Duty
Concentrating
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013 October 2013
1 OR 2 “UBIQUITOUS” SERVICES
CANNOT FULFILL ALL THESE
PURPOSES WELL
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013 October 2013
Tools are cheap/free. So we pick the right ones
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013 October 2013
SMS
So how important is quality?
Must have
Nice to have
Meh. I want free
I'll call back
% calls
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013 October 2013
Beyond “the minute” as a metric & model
We don’t pay for movies or flights by the minute
Short calls often more valuable than long
Minutes = easy to count
Align pricing – and charging – with value
Needs creativity, on top of standards
Locks telecom industry to obsolete business model
Flat-rate at retail is popular, but wholesale?
Analytics? Cloud processing? Perceived importance?
Regulator mindset needs to shift too
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013 October 2013
Service
Product
Feature
Function
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013 October 2013
Design & software simpler via the Web
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013 Oct 2013
For telcos WebRTC is really a magnifier/catalyst
Now
With WebRTC
Bigger opportunities
Worse threats
Faster speed Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013 October 2013
Ubiquity is dead. And that’s a good thing.
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013 October 2013
We’re getting closer to
communications services
& applications meeting
our real human needs
We’ll still need lowest-
common denominator phone
calls & maybe SMS & email.
But that’s it for ubiquity.
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013 October 2013
For WebRTC report & quarterly update
details email information@disruptive-
analysis.com
www.disruptive-analysis.com
disruptivewireless.blogspot.com
@disruptivedean
Skype:disruptiveanalysis
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013 October 2013
