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This presentation looks at how various economic and demographic parameters are evolving. It predicts conditions in India by 2020 if these trends continue to move in the 2010s the same manner as they have been over the 2000s. This is not a general equilibrium analysis and takes a sector by sector and area by area approach. However, without making any strong assumptions about the future, we are fairly confident that conditions by 2020 will not be very different from that revealed in the following pages. Trend Growth: Economic Growth in the 2010s Economic Structure: An even more of a services economy Household Consumption Expenditure of Households: Food Expenditure of Households: Services Consumer Durables Penetration Rates (%) Energy Consumption Consumption of Agriculture Commodities Poverty Additional Employment Generation (millions) Fastest Growing Non-Agri Occupations in the 2010s (millions) Urbanization Income Distribution Comparison of Standard of Living – States and Countries Education Profile The trends of the 2000s will continue – but growth will be much faster – Agriculture investment will finally resume after many decades of relative sparseness, but this sector could well grow much faster than the expected 3.4% - a rural road network has been built up, high agri commodity prices would improve terms of trade towards this sector, rural human capital has improved tremendously in the 2000s, new technologies are about to enter on a mass scale, agri reforms such as the APMC acts are being overhauled. However, we would need to wait till the 2020s for the full impact of these changes to be felt – for the time being agriculture (including forestry and fishing) would barely sustain its 3.4% growth. Manufacturing opportunities would improve on account of rapidly growing domestic market as well as international markets – however energy and wage price inflation will play a role. The labour problem has not been solved yet, and expect a resurgence in labour unrest in 2010s. Transport, storage and communications will be the driving force of growth in the country in the 2010s – A large road network is going to be operational, ports are rapidly improving, air transport infrastructure is being overhauled, and most important, a strong ecosystem has been created for the telecom sector. Overall GDP growth will be around 9.6% annually, even if the government does not do anything. It would be higher if agriculture and electricity, gas and water supply are able to break through theior long term institutional constraints. It would be lower if inflation eats into macro-economic stability and law and order conditions get out of hand.
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This assessment study looks at how various economic and demographic parameters are evolving. It predicts conditions in India by 2020 if these trends continue to move in the 2010s the same manner as they have been over the 2000s
The Evolving India - 2020
Overall GDP growth will be around 9.6% annually, even if the government does not do anything. It would be higher if agriculture and electricity, gas and water supply are able to break through their long term institutional constraints. It would be lower if inflation eats into macro-economic stability and law and order conditions get out of hand.
Trend Growth: Economic Trend Growth: Economic Growth in the 2010sGrowth in the 2010s
Agriculture investment will finally resume after many decades of relative sparseness, but this sector could well grow much faster than the expected 3.4% Manufacturing opportunities would improve on account of rapidly growing domestic market as well as international markets – however energy and wage price inflation will play a role. Transport, storage and communications will be the driving force of growth in the country in the 2010s – A large road network is going to be operational, ports are rapidly improving, air transport infrastructure is being overhauled, and a strong ecosystem has been created for the telecom sector
The trends of the 2000s will continue – but growth will be much faster
Economic Structure: An even Economic Structure: An even more of a services economymore of a services economy
Visit SiteServices would be three fourths of the Indian economy by 2020
GDP at Factor CostINR Trillions ('99-00)
5.8 6.30.6 0.95.4
9.50.7
0.82.6
6.35.8
11.2
5.1
17.8
5.4
11.1
4.5
6.5
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
2009-10 2019-20
Community, Social & Personal Services
Financing, Insurance, RealEstate & Business Services
Transport, Storage &Communication
Trade, Hotels & Restaurant
Construction
Electricity, Gas & WaterSupply
Manufacturing
Mining & Quarrying
Agriculture, Forestry &Fishing
Source: District Domestic Product of India, 2009-10, Indicus Analytics
Overall GDP growth will be around 9.6% annually, even if the government does not do anything
Household ConsumptionHousehold Consumption
Multiple implies growth factor between 2009-10 and 2019-20. Source: Expenditure Spectrum of India, 2009-10, Indicus Analytics
Per capita income growth 8% pa – households will earn about double that they do now
The overall household budget would be about 2 times higher than now in real terms. The share of food and related products would fall from 40% to 34% (though in absolute amounts it would be about 1.8 times higher). Transport, education, health and recreation would all be among the most rapidly growing items of consumer expenditures.
What will Indians eat in 10 What will Indians eat in 10 years? years?
Source: Expenditure Spectrum of India, 2009-10, Indicus Analytics
Processed foods & eating out will be a rapidly growing component of household budgets
Lifestyle changes will show up in a major way in our eating habits. That is the next tipping point – cooking at home will continue, and we will not do away with kitchens as in Thailand
How will they spend on How will they spend on services? services?
Source: Expenditure Spectrum of India, 2009-10, Indicus Analytics
Health care expenditures will grow rapidly, and so will those for education
Recreation and communication that will drive household expenditures the most. The Indian household will move more and more towards lifestyle enhancing expenditures - and another tipping point will be reached in terms of the expenditures on tertiary education and health
Penetration of DurablesPenetration of Durables
Estimates Using penetration trends from NSSO Data
A surge in durable ownership by households is one of the most unambiguous trends
Large numbers of both rural and u7rban households will benefit from access to electricity as well as financing to purchase and operate electric appliances. The only threat to this scenario? Electricity supply.
EnergyEnergy
Source: CSO, World Development Indicators and Indicus estimates
India will need more and more energy to service the demands of a growing economy
India will not become an energy intensive economic power in the coming decade. India’s GDP in 2019-20 would be about 4.5 times what it was in 2001, however, total energy requirement would have barely doubled since then. Endemic lack of energy has created an economy that is not as energy dependent as (say) China. India’s growth relies more on services that are typically less energy intensive than manufacturing.
Energy use (kt of oil equivalent)
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
900000
1000000
100000 1100000 2100000 3100000 4100000 5100000 6100000 7100000 8100000 9100000 10100000
2019-20
2004-05
Annual growth in consumption till 2020, %
1.03
2.17
2.28
4.08
5.04
4.32
-0.61
6.29
3.86
6.32
5.37
6.7
Forestry
Other food
Fish
Milk
Other agro products
Cattle and meat
Plant-based fibre
Sugar
Oilseed
Coarse grains
Wheat
Rice
Consumption of Agriculture Consumption of Agriculture Commodities Commodities
Estimates drawing from joint work done by Bibek Debroy and Laveesh Bhandari for FAO
Agriculture will steadily but slowly move towards being more of a cash crop sector
The demand for wheat will surpass that for rice on account of increased incomes and changing preferences, not to mention higher population growth in the northern part of the country. Consumption of meats will stagnate and may even fall on account of higher relative prices. The consumption of cash crops will continue to rise and the demand for milk, and fish is likely to grow rapidly.
Poverty Poverty
Estimates using the India Labout Report 2008
Expect that social safety nets would remain critical for India
300 million people are expected to be living under extreme poverty as defined by the Planning Commission. And this figure has been more or less stagnant over the last 4 decades. If the current trends continue as many as 260 million persons would remain under extreme poverty even by the end of the decade. Rapid reforms can however dramatically reduce these numbers
Urbanization Urbanization
Indicus estimates using Registrar General of India data
An additional 100 million will move into cities
About 32% of India’s 1176.7 million people reside in Indian cities currently. This will increase to about 35.4% of the total population of 1326.2 million by 2019 – an addition of about 100 million. The bulk of this new urban population will comprise of recent migrants
Income Distribution Income Distribution
Source: Market Skyline of India, 2009-10, Indicus Analytics
India will progressively become less poor and the great Indian middle class will finally become a reality
22.9
11.7
96.7
76.3
20.4 19.1
40.4
49.0
16.5
26.1
18.8
32.6
7.8
16.0
5.9
12.7
6.0
14.0
3.2
7.5
1.85.0
0.7 1.82.2
7.5
0.7 1.8
-
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
Urban Urban Rural Rural
2009-10 20019-20 2009-10 20019-20
Ho
us
eh
old
s (
mil
lio
ns
)
<75K
75K-150K
150K-300K
300K-500K
500K-1000K
1000K-1500K
>1500K
Household Annual Income (K=1000)
Households earning less than 75,000 per annum will fall from 23 million to less than 12 million in urban India and from 96.7 million currently to less than 77 million in rural areas.
Affluent households (> 1 million per year) will rise from 4 million currently to 12.5 million in urban areas; and from barely 1.5 million to 3.6 million in rural areas. But the greatest increase is going to be among the middle classes – the great Indian middle class will finally become a reality in both rural and urban India.
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