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Business Agility – The Inconvenient Truths
“What’s Wrong with Estimates?”
The Organogram
Who is “the Business”?
“Users”
“Customers”“Product Owners”
“Project Managers”
“Marketing”
“Sales”
“Finance”
“Other Businesses”
“Us”“My boss”
“My boss’ boss”
“Programme Managers”
“Shareholders”
“Stakeholders”
Who is “the Business”?
“Users”
“Customers”“Product Owners”
“Project Managers”
“Marketing”
“Sales”
“Finance”
“Other Businesses”
“My boss”
“My boss’ boss”
“Programme Managers”
“Shareholders”
“Stakeholders”
“Us”“Us”We’re in this together!
Game Time: The Name Game
Run 11. 5 volunteers
• 3 players, 1 timer, 1 writer
2. Spell one character from your name
3. Point at next person4. If no one to your left,
select the start person5. Finished name = raise hand6. Goto 2
Run21. 5 volunteers
– 3 players, 1 timer, 1 writer
2. Set n=03. Spell n-th character from
your name4. If finished:
• Point at next person
5. Else n++
Context Switching
Context switches are usually computationally
intensive, and much of the design of operating
organisational systems is to optimize the use of
context switches. Switching from one task to
another requires a certain amount of time for
doing the administration
Value is ALWAYS about flow!
Where does the work go?Customer Services Sales EngineeringHealth &
SafetyCustomer Services Engineering Credit Control
Reporting, Invoicing, PR,
Management…
Thousands to Millions of Value Transactions Each Week
Repo
rting
Val
ue 1
to 4
Tim
es p
er A
nnum
Where is Value Flow?
Actual Delivery
Source: Companies House
FTSE 100 Company Late Account Filing Penalty!?!
Thousands to Millions of Value Transactions Each Week
Repo
rting
Val
ue 1
to 4
Tim
es p
er A
nnum
Where is Value Flow?
This is your Value
Chain!
This is…
POINTLESS!
Actual Delivery
Game Time: Inventory v Throughput
Run 1• Two Departments• Department 1
– Build set of Brown Trunks– Must have large block as root
• Department 2– Builds Green Body– Mounts on Trunk
• Communicate Through Managers
Run 2• Two Teams• Team 1
– Build set of Brown Trunks– Must have large block as root– ONLY in response to pull (via
container)– Only ever put 2 trunks in each
container• Team 2
– Builds Green Body– Mounts on Trunk
• Communicate direct by ‘container slide’ back
Ask Yourself…
• Did The Change Help there? – If so, how? – If not, why?
• What was the trade-off?
Homework: Try this….
Run 3• Two Teams• Both Teams
– Build set of Trunks– Must have large block as
‘feet’– ONLY in response to pull (by
customer)– Builds Green Body– Mounts on Trunk
Run 4• One person
– Build set of Brown Trunks– Must have large base as root– ONLY in response to pull (by
customer)– Builds Green Body– Mounts on Legs
Ask Yourself…
• What went well? • What was the performance like?• Which model generated the most revenue?• Which model cost more?• Which model made the most money?
Reasoning & Tackling ComplexityCynefin
Theory of ConstraintsSystems ThinkingMarshall Model
Antimatter PrincipleNon-linear Dynamics/Chaos
Enterprise Agile (Agile-EA, SAFe…)Chaordic Organisation
Lean StartupStoos
…
Estimates v #NoEstimates
No two ways about it. Estimates are just:
Guesses
A Guess in Product Development…
Time Scope Cost Projections/Forecasts Needs/Requirements Team productivity(!) Value …
Truth: “Some cost (waste) is necessary”
Don’t cut or impede the Staff who deliver value!Cost of moving tasks between kanban columns is offset by pipeline’s benefitEscalating blockers, costs tasks blocked anyway*
Don’t be this!!
Some principles:“Any cost MUST have a corresponding Value step to be valuable”
Adding columns that don’t complete a value step, just costs. i.e. waste
“Each value chain step MUST add value else you’re increasing cost for no value”Adding columns that don’t complete a value step costs. i.e. waste
“Every step must move along the value chain to add value. Every upward step is waste”
Stopping the ‘machine’ to report its progress or over-plan delays delivery, loses opportunity cost, increases spend and often risks
“The longer the time between the expenditure and income is risk and requires bigger safety”
The longer the time between paying bills and getting income means higher need & risk to dip into savings
Most Inconvenient…
Its STOCHASTIC!
The Exciting Stuff #NoProjects
“Find an Organisation or Industry where nothing ever changes!”
IT’S NOT
REAL!!!
If change isn’t visible, is it there?
• “If a tree falls in the woods…”• Clients change• Marketing works or not• Staff are employed/fired• New Regulation/Legislation Actioned
YES!! It’s happening all the time!(So projects never should have existed the way we know them)
Projects: Definition
Prince 2:
“a temporary organization that is created for the purpose of delivering one or more business
products”
Projects v Products
• Products aren’t that temporary• Projects don’t consider support models much or
monitoring business value at all!• Projects often cross departments, even in agile :(– If you’re not closing the loop, you have another
function monitoring your value! If your company isn’t doing it, it’s the market or competitors! It’s not internal to the team.
– If you do, then why do you need project management as a separate function? Make it a role!
Bonus: Muda – 7+1 Wastes
• Transportation• Inventory• Motion• Waiting• Over-processing• Over-production• Defects• Latent Skill*
Bonus: Muda – 7+1 Wastes
• Transportation• Inventory• Motion• Waiting• Over-processing• Over-production• Defects• Latent Skill*
“There is Only One!”
COST
Q & A
Thanks for ViewingFurther Reading
Probabilityhttps://www.khanacademy.org/math/probability/random-variables-topic/random_variables_prob_dist/v/random-variables (Khan Academy)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confidence_interval http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_distribution http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correlation_and_dependence http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Factor_analysis #NoProjects/Beyond Projectshttp://www.infoq.com/articles/kelly-beyond-projectsAnti-Matter & the Marshall Modelhttps://flowchainsensei.wordpress.com/ The Goal (Theory of Constraints)https://www.toc-goldratt.com/en/product/The-Goal-A-Process-of-Ongoing-Improvement Queuing Theoryhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Queueing_theory
Ethar Alali @EtharUK @Axelisys
CXO & Chief ArchitectPolymath-MathMo. Growing up 9 year old programmer. TOGAF 9 Certified, change agent. Blog: GoadingtheITGeek.blogspot.co.uk
Specialist ICT Strategists & Advisors for some of the biggest household and corporate multi-nationals.
Accredited Growth Voucher Advisors 2014/15 certified to deliver IT & Web Growth Consultancy as part of the government’s Growth Voucher Scheme.
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