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Economic Crisis: Effects in Colombia Braulio Angulo Lina Oviedo Catalina Carmona ENGLISH V– 2009/2

English Proyect Day Presentation

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Page 1: English Proyect Day   Presentation

Economic Crisis: Effects in Colombia

Braulio AnguloLina Oviedo

Catalina Carmona

ENGLISH V– 2009/2

Page 2: English Proyect Day   Presentation

ENGLISH V– 2009/2

1. General Concepts

Origen Historial Data 2. Colombia

Effects

3. Industry sector and the crisis

CONTENS

Economic Crisis

Page 3: English Proyect Day   Presentation

ENGLISH V– 2009/2

• WORLD CRISIS: TWO WAVES

August 2007: The housing bubble burst in the United States

September – December 2007: The Fed lowers interest rates

January – September 2008: The crisis extends to the overall financial sector

September 2008: It is the breaking point. Lehman Brothers fail

It triggers a crisis of confidence in the financial sector

October – December 2008: The governments of developed countries announced fiscal stimulus packages

January 2009: Developed countries officially entering recession

February 2009: The U.S. Congress approves the fiscal stimulus package

FIRST WAVE

SE

CO

ND

WA

VE

Loss of briefcases in Europe generates the investors' aversion to invest in emergent countries

The hit countries are the clerks of it USES.

It decreases the growth. Devaluation of the rate of change to adjust external bills.

Economic Crisis

Page 5: English Proyect Day   Presentation

• ARE WE PREPARED?

Execution of the Banks of the regulations.

Invigoration of the patrimony of the

banks.

Improvement internal processes of

administration of risks.

Consolidation of the system: Those

survived but strong.

Politics of Independence of the Main

Houses.

Not existence of speculative bubbles.

Comfortable situation of liquidity.

Moderate Fiscal deficit.

It appraises of Flexible Change.

Closed economy.

ENGLISH V– 2009/2

OUR STRENGTHS

Economic Crisis

Page 6: English Proyect Day   Presentation

• ARE WE PREPARED?

OUR WEAKNESSES

Rigid, slow and antiquated economy:

Strong blow = Long recovery.

Closed: Adjust of the demand it is

but traumatic.

There are not structural measures.

There was not saving in the upward

part of the cycle.

The shy measures generate distrust.

Exports: High dependence

Pyramids

ENGLISH V– 2009/2

Economic Crisis

Page 7: English Proyect Day   Presentation

ENGLISH V– 2009/2

World Trade, World, Latin America and Colombia: Tendency Line

Economic Crisis

Page 8: English Proyect Day   Presentation

Bankrupt Restructured0

5

10

15

20

25

30

200822009

ENGLISH V– 2009/2

FIRMS DECLAREDT BANCKRUPT 2008 VS 2009

Economic Crisis

Page 9: English Proyect Day   Presentation

Const

ruct

ion

Min

ing

Finan

cial

Socia

l ser

vice

s

Elect

ricity

, Gas

and

it D

ilute

s

Trans

port

Agricu

ltura

l

Trade

Indu

stry

Man

ufac

ture

r-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20 16.8

10.2

4.3

0.5 0.1

-1.2 -1.8-3.9

-10.2

Annual percentage change of PIB by economic sectors 2008/II Vs 2009/II

Perc

enta

ge v

ari

ati

on

Fuente: DANE- Dirección de Síntesis y Cuentas Nacionales

ENGLISH V– 2009/2

Economic Crisis

Page 10: English Proyect Day   Presentation

ENGLISH V– 2009/2

Behavior of the Manufacturer Industry

Economic Crisis

Page 11: English Proyect Day   Presentation

Beauti

ful and n

ot

stro

ng m

ate

rials

Sugar

geniu

ses

Carp

entr

y fo

r co

nst

ruct

ions

Dri

nks

Oth

er

Chem

ists

Meat

and F

ish

Oth

er

Text

ile P

roduct

s

Poin

t art

icle

s and h

ook

I gla

ze a

nd t

heir

pro

duct

s

Oth

er

indust

ries

manufa

cture

rs

Auto

part

es,

pie

ces

for

vehic

les

Pro

duct

s of

Rubber

Self

-dri

ven v

ehic

les

Chass

is

Pro

duct

s of

Iron a

nd S

teel

Oth

er

wooden o

ne

Oth

ers

of

Impre

ssio

n

-50-40-30-20-10

01020304050 41.3

15.56.6 6.5 4.9 3.7

-21.8 -23.8 -24.3 -25 -25.8 -29.6 -31.1 -33.2-37.5 -37.9 -41.2

Main annual variations of the real production according to activity manufacturer (January – Jule 2008 /2009)

Perc

enta

ge v

ari

ati

on

ENGLISH V– 2009/2

Fuente: DANE- Dirección de Síntesis y Cuentas Nacionales

Economic Crisis

Page 12: English Proyect Day   Presentation

THE CRISIS IN COLOMBIAARE WE PREPARED TO FACE IT?

• RECOMMENDATIONS

To avoid measures of short term and

populists.

To watch over financial sector-Non

intervention of the BC in adjustment of

Rate of Change.

Attraction of capitals stops after having

overcome the crisis.

Crisis: Opportunity to achieve goals.

ENGLISH V– 2009/2

Economic Crisis

Page 13: English Proyect Day   Presentation

BIBLIOGRAPHY

www.banrep.gov.co

www.dpn.gov.co

www.dane.gov.co

Más allá del corto plazo. Revista Dinero: Nº 321, 06 de Marzo de 2009. [Consultado

el 01 de Noviembre de 2009]. Disponible en <http://www.dinero.com/noticias-

editorial/alla-del-corto-plazo/57513.aspx>

Crisis Externa: La segunda Ola. Revista Dinero: Nº 320, 06 de Marzo de 2009.

[Consultado el 01 de Noviembre de 2009]. Disponible en

<http://www.dinero.com/noticias-editorial/alla-del-corto-plazo/57513.aspx>

GOMEZ, Luisa. El mundo en recesión y Colombia estancada este año, según el FMI.

El Tiempo, 23 de Abril de 2009. Pág. 1 – 2

ENGLISH V– 2009/2

Economic Crisis

Page 14: English Proyect Day   Presentation

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Radio Santafe. In economic crisis, most affected unions point to new markets. October

10, 2009. Avalaible at :

http://www.radiosantafe.com/2009/10/10/por-crisis economica

-gremios-mas-afectados-apuntan-a-nuevos-mercados/

DANE. PIB. September 2009. Avalaible at: http

://www.dane.gov.co/files/investigaciones/boletines/pib/presen_PIB_IItrim09.pdf

DANE. PIB. Bogotá D.C. Septiember 24, 2009. Avalaible at:

DANE. news bulletin: Manufacturing. June 2009. Avalaible at: http://

www.dane.gov.co/files/comunicados/cp_pib_iitrim0

http://www.dane.gov.co/files/investigaciones/boletines/mmm/bol_mmm_jun09.pdf

ENGLISH V– 2009/2

Economic Crisis