Employment ppt may 2012 for april2010

A Graphical look at the April 2012 US Employment Report

COPYRIGHT 2012 WWW.FXDD.COM

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1/1/

1994

2/1/

1995

3/1/

1996

4/1/

1997

5/1/

1998

6/1/

1999

7/1/

2000

8/1/

2001

9/1/

2002

10/1

/200

3

11/1

/200

4

12/1

/200

5

1/1/

2007

2/1/

2008

3/1/

2009

4/1/

2010

5/1/

2011

US Unemployment Rate

RISK DISCLAIMER: All news, opinions, research, data, or other information contained within this presentation are provided as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. FXDD expressly disclaims any liability for any lost principal or profits without limitation which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information. ADVISORY WARNING: FXDD provides sources of economic and market information during this broadcast as an educational service to its clients and prospects. The opinions or recommendations expressed during the broadcast are not intended as investment advice and are based on data reasonably believed to be accurate at the time of publication. Clients and prospects are advised to carefully consider the opinions and analysis offered in the context of your individual analysis and decision making. None of the statements of opinions or recommendations are to be considered as constituting a track record. Past performance is no guarantee of futures results and FXDD specifically advises clients and prospects to carefully review all claims and representations made during the broadcast in light of your particular analysis, trading style and objectives. All news, opinions, research, data, or other information contained within this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment or trading advice. FXDD expressly disclaims any liability for any lost principal or profits without limitation which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information. As with all such advisory services, past results are never a guarantee of future results.


-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11Historical US Unemployment Rate/Change in Non Farm Payroll

• NFP job gains in this recovery are less historically. • NFP job losses were much higher in the most recent job depression

than previous downturns. • Unemployment Rate has been above 8% for 40 months (longest

continuous time period above the rate).


-1000.0

-800.0

-600.0

-400.0

-200.0

0.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

Jan-

08M

ar-0

8M

ay-0

8Ju

l-08

Sep-

08N

ov-0

8Ja

n-09

Mar

-09

May

-09

Jul-0

9Se

p-09

Nov

-09

Jan-

10M

ar-1

0M

ay-1

0Ju

l-10

Sep-

10N

ov-1

0Ja

n-11

Mar

-11

May

-11

Jul-1

1Se

p-11

Nov

-11

Jan-

12M

ar-1

2

US NFP Jobs Change MoM (Thousands)/ 3 Month Average

The 3 month average of NFP jobs has fallen from 252K to 176K. A 3 month average of 300K is what the Fed historically wants to see before they start to tighten.


-900.0

-700.0

-500.0

-300.0

-100.0

100.0

300.0

Jan-

08

Apr-

08

Jul-0

8

Oct

-08

Jan-

09

Apr-

09

Jul-0

9

Oct

-09

Jan-

10

Apr-

10

Jul-1

0

Oct

-10

Jan-

11

Apr-

11

Jul-1

1

Oct

-11

Jan-

12

Apr-

12

US Private Sector Job Change MoM (Thousands) / 3 Month Average

The 3 month average of Private Sector Jobs has fallen from 255K to 183K. Both the NFP and Private Sector jobs are going in the wrong direction.


41

-3

0

-16

-6

14

37 45

52

2

-12

16

-2

0

22

-2

1

62

23

12

-2

-15 -20-10

010203040506070

Jobs by Industry Sector (March (Blue)/April (Red)

Professional and Business Services rose by 62K. The rest of the sectors showed lethargic growth.


-2196 -1920

-52

-2081

-282 -589

-1490

834

-553 -205

96

-2600-2100-1600-1100

-600-100400900

1400

Jobs Lost by Industry Jan 2008 through Feb 2010 (26 months, -8.437 millon jobs)

485

29 162

715

-106

59

1318

856 688

41

-502 -600

-100

400

900

1400

1900

Jobs by Industry since March 2010 (Total Jobs added 3.745 million)

-8.437 million jobs were lost from 2008 to 2010…Manufacturing led the decline with 2.196 million jobs lost.

Only 3.745 million have been gained since Feb 2010. Manufacturing jobs gained back? Only 485K. Construction has only added 29K. There is still a ways to go.

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1/1/

1994

11/1

/199

4

9/1/

1995

7/1/

1996

5/1/

1997

3/1/

1998

1/1/

1999

11/1

/199

9

9/1/

2000

7/1/

2001

5/1/

2002

3/1/

2003

1/1/

2004

11/1

/200

4

9/1/

2005

7/1/

2006

5/1/

2007

3/1/

2008

1/1/

2009

11/1

/200

9

9/1/

2010

7/1/

2011

US Unemployment Rate / Underemployment rate

Underemployment is down to 14.5% from a high of 17.2% (or 15.69%), while, the Unemployment Rate is down from a peak of 10.0% to 8.1% (or 19.0%)


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1/1/

1992

11/1

/199

29/

1/19

937/

1/19

945/

1/19

953/

1/19

961/

1/19

9711

/1/1

997

9/1/

1998

7/1/

1999

5/1/

2000

3/1/

2001

1/1/

2002

11/1

/200

29/

1/20

037/

1/20

045/

1/20

053/

1/20

061/

1/20

0711

/1/2

007

9/1/

2008

7/1/

2009

5/1/

2010

3/1/

2011

1/1/

2012

US Unemployment Rate College Degree / Less than a College Degree

Workers without a college degree are starting to find work. However, workers with a college degree have a distinct advantage over those without a degree.


-350.0-300.0-250.0-200.0-150.0-100.0

-50.00.0

50.0100.0

Jan-

08Ap

r-08

Jul-0

8O

ct-0

8Ja

n-09

Apr-

09Ju

l-09

Oct

-09

Jan-

10Ap

r-10

Jul-1

0O

ct-1

0Ja

n-11

Apr-

11Ju

l-11

Oct

-11

Jan-

12Ap

r-12

US Manufacturing Job Change MoM (Thousands)

-200.0

-150.0

-100.0

-50.0

0.0

50.0

Jan-

08Ap

r-08

Jul-0

8O

ct-0

8Ja

n-09

Apr-

09Ju

l-09

Oct

-09

Jan-

10Ap

r-10

Jul-1

0O

ct-1

0Ja

n-11

Apr-

11Ju

l-11

Oct

-11

Jan-

12Ap

r-12

US Construction Job Change MoM (Thousands)

-25.0-20.0-15.0-10.0

-5.00.05.0

10.015.020.0

Jan-

08Ap

r-08

Jul-0

8O

ct-0

8Ja

n-09

Apr-

09Ju

l-09

Oct

-09

Jan-

10Ap

r-10

Jul-1

0O

ct-1

0Ja

n-11

Apr-

11Ju

l-11

Oct

-11

Jan-

12Ap

r-12

US Mining Job Change MoM (Thousands) -600.0

-400.0

-200.0

0.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

Jan-

08

Apr-

08

Jul-0

8

Oct

-08

Jan-

09

Apr-

09

Jul-0

9

Oct

-09

Jan-

10

Apr-

10

Jul-1

0

Oct

-10

Jan-

11

Apr-

11

Jul-1

1

Oct

-11

Jan-

12

Apr-

12

US Good Producing Job Change MoM (Thousands)

Goods Producing Jobs have only added 676K jobs since March 2010. This is only a 16.2% of the - 4,168K jobs that were lost from Jan 2008 to February 2010

-600.0

-400.0

-200.0

0.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

Jan-

08

Apr-

08

Jul-0

8

Oct

-08

Jan-

09

Apr-

09

Jul-0

9

Oct

-09

Jan-

10

Apr-

10

Jul-1

0

Oct

-10

Jan-

11

Apr-

11

Jul-1

1

Oct

-11

Jan-

12

Apr-

12

US Service Producing MoM (Thousands) -250.0-200.0-150.0-100.0

-50.00.0

50.0100.0150.0

Jan-

08Ap

r-08

Jul-0

8O

ct-0

8Ja

n-09

Apr-

09Ju

l-09

Oct

-09

Jan-

10Ap

r-10

Jul-1

0O

ct-1

0Ja

n-11

Apr-

11Ju

l-11

Oct

-11

Jan-

12Ap

r-12

Trade, Transportation Utility Change MoM (Thousands)

-60.0

-40.0

-20.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

Jan-

08Ap

r-08

Jul-0

8O

ct-0

8Ja

n-09

Apr-

09Ju

l-09

Oct

-09

Jan-

10Ap

r-10

Jul-1

0O

ct-1

0Ja

n-11

Apr-

11Ju

l-11

Oct

-11

Jan-

12Ap

r-12

US Information Job Change MoM (Thousands)

-60.0-50.0-40.0-30.0-20.0-10.0

0.010.020.0

Jan-

08Ap

r-08

Jul-0

8O

ct-0

8Ja

n-09

Apr-

09Ju

l-09

Oct

-09

Jan-

10Ap

r-10

Jul-1

0O

ct-1

0Ja

n-11

Apr-

11Ju

l-11

Oct

-11

Jan-

12Ap

r-12

US Financial Job Change MoM (Thousands)

Service Producing Jobs have added 3,069K jobs since March 2010. This represents 71.8% of the - 4,270K jobs that were lost from Jan 2008 to February 2010

-200.0-150.0-100.0

-50.00.0

50.0100.0150.0

Jan-

08Ap

r-08

Jul-0

8O

ct-0

8Ja

n-09

Apr-

09Ju

l-09

Oct

-09

Jan-

10Ap

r-10

Jul-1

0O

ct-1

0Ja

n-11

Apr-

11Ju

l-11

Oct

-11

Jan-

12Ap

r-12

US Professional and Business Job Change MoM

-10.00.0

10.020.030.040.050.060.070.080.0

Jan-

08Ap

r-08

Jul-0

8O

ct-0

8Ja

n-09

Apr-

09Ju

l-09

Oct

-09

Jan-

10Ap

r-10

Jul-1

0O

ct-1

0Ja

n-11

Apr-

11Ju

l-11

Oct

-11

Jan-

12Ap

r-12

US Educ Health Services Job Change MoM (Thousands)

-80.0-60.0-40.0-20.0

0.020.040.060.080.0

Jan-

08Ap

r-08

Jul-0

8O

ct-0

8Ja

n-09

Apr-

09Ju

l-09

Oct

-09

Jan-

10Ap

r-10

Jul-1

0O

ct-1

0Ja

n-11

Apr-

11Ju

l-11

Oct

-11

Jan-

12Ap

r-12

US Leisure and Hospitality Job Chge MoM (Thousands)

-300.0-200.0-100.0

0.0100.0200.0300.0400.0500.0

Jan-

08Ap

r-08

Jul-0

8O

ct-0

8Ja

n-09

Apr-

09Ju

l-09

Oct

-09

Jan-

10Ap

r-10

Jul-1

0O

ct-1

0Ja

n-11

Apr-

11Ju

l-11

Oct

-11

Jan-

12Ap

r-12

US Government Job Change MoM (Thousands)

-50.0-40.0-30.0-20.0-10.0

0.010.020.030.0

Jan-

08Ap

r-08

Jul-0

8O

ct-0

8Ja

n-09

Apr-

09Ju

l-09

Oct

-09

Jan-

10Ap

r-10

Jul-1

0O

ct-1

0Ja

n-11

Apr-

11Ju

l-11

Oct

-11

Jan-

12Ap

r-12

US Other Job Change MoM (Thousands)

Professional and Business Services have added 1,318K while Government has shed -502K. Discretionary spending may be slowing as Leisure and Hospitality jobs had the lowest month gain since August 2011

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1/1/

2007

4/1/

2007

7/1/

2007

10/1

/200

7

1/1/

2008

4/1/

2008

7/1/

2008

10/1

/200

8

1/1/

2009

4/1/

2009

7/1/

2009

10/1

/200

9

1/1/

2010

4/1/

2010

7/1/

2010

10/1

/201

0

1/1/

2011

4/1/

2011

7/1/

2011

10/1

/201

1

1/1/

2012

4/1/

2012

Discouraged Workers (Thousands)

The Number of Workers Discouraged and not searching for work, is down from the peak (currently 968k) but still well above the normal 400K.


-1000.0

-800.0

-600.0

-400.0

-200.0

0.0

200.0

400.0

Jan-

08

May

-08

Sep-

08

Jan-

09

May

-09

Sep-

09

Jan-

10

May

-10

Sep-

10

Jan-

11

May

-11

Sep-

11

Jan-

12

ADP Private Employment Change (Thousands)

-1000.0

-800.0

-600.0

-400.0

-200.0

0.0

200.0

400.0

Jan-

08

May

-08

Sep-

08

Jan-

09

May

-09

Sep-

09

Jan-

10

May

-10

Sep-

10

Jan-

11

May

-11

Sep-

11

Jan-

12US Private Sector Job Change MoM (Thousands)

-150.0

-100.0

-50.0

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

Jan-

08

Mar

-08

May

-08

Jul-0

8

Sep

-08

Nov

-08

Jan-

09

Mar

-09

May

-09

Jul-0

9

Sep

-09

Nov

-09

Jan-

10

Mar

-10

May

-10

Jul-1

0

Sep

-10

Nov

-10

Jan-

11

Mar

-11

May

-11

Jul-1

1

Sep

-11

Nov

-11

Jan-

12

Mar

-12

Thou

sand

s

ADP minus Private Sector Payroll

There was only a 11K difference between ADP and Private Payrolls this month.