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For the past couple of years, Dan North has been working with and studying teams who are dramatically more productive than any he's ever seen. In weeks they produce results that take other teams months. One of the central behaviors Dan has observed is their ability to embrace uncertainty, holding multiple contradictory opinions at the same time and deferring commitment until there is a good reason. Embracing uncertainty lies at the heart of agile delivery and is one of the primary reasons organizations struggle with agile adoption. We are desperately uncomfortable with uncertainty, so much so that we will replace it with anything-even things we know to be wrong. Dan claims we have turned our back on the original Agile Manifesto, and explains why understanding risk and embracing uncertainty are fundamental to agile delivery-and why we find it so scary. He describes how techniques like real options and deliberate discovery can expose dogma and make life more manageable. Join Dan to learn ways to face-and even embrace-uncertainty with courage and determination.
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KT1 Keynote 11/8/2012 8:30 AM
"Embracing Uncertainty: A Most Difficult Leap of Faith"
Presented by:
Dan North Lean Technology Specialist
Brought to you by:
340 Corporate Way, Suite 300, Orange Park, FL 32073 888‐268‐8770 ∙ 904‐278‐0524 ∙ [email protected] ∙ www.sqe.com
Dan North Lean Technology Specialist
Programmer and organizational change specialist Dan North applies principles from lean operations and agile software development to help organizations align their technology capabilities with their business objectives. With twenty years of experience in IT, Dan is a frequent speaker at technology conferences worldwide, has published feature articles in numerous software and business publications, and contributed to The RSpec Book: Behaviour Driven Development with RSpec, Cucumber, and Friends and97 Things Every Programmer Should Know: Collective Wisdom from the Experts. The originator of Behaviour-Driven Development (BDD) and Deliberate Discovery, Dan is currently working on his book Patterns of Effective Delivery, helping organizations radically improve their delivery. He blogs at dannorth.net.
Embracing Uncertainty
Dan North
Dan North & Associates
@tastapod
Patterns of
Effective
Delivery
@tastapod
Faster
Software
Delivery
@tastapod
With apologies to George Lucas…
Fear leads to Risk
Risk leads to Process
Process leads to Hate
…and suffering and product backlogs
@tastapod
With apologies to George Lucas…
Fear leads to Risk
Risk leads to Process
Process leads to Hate
…and suffering and product backlogs
@tastapod
Understanding risk Impact
Likelihood [0.0, 1.0]
∞
@tastapod
Snowbird 2001
Individuals and interactions over processes and tools
Working software over comprehensive documentation
Customer collaboration over contract negotiation
Responding to change over following a plan
@tastapod
Everywhere 2012
Individuals and interactions over processes and tools
Working software over comprehensive documentation
Customer collaboration over contract negotiation
Responding to change over following a plan
@tastapod
Everywhere 2012
Processes and tools over individuals and interactions
Working software over comprehensive documentation
Customer collaboration over contract negotiation
Responding to change over following a plan
@tastapod
Everywhere 2012
Processes and tools over individuals and interactions
Comprehensive documentation over working software
Customer collaboration over contract negotiation
Responding to change over following a plan
@tastapod
Everywhere 2012
Processes and tools over individuals and interactions
Comprehensive documentation over working software
Contract negotiation over customer collaboration
Responding to change over following a plan
@tastapod
Everywhere 2012
Processes and tools over individuals and interactions
Comprehensive documentation over working software
Contract negotiation over customer collaboration
Following a plan over responding to change
@tastapod
We crave certainty!
Faith becomes religion
Complex questions become simplistic answers
Interpretation becomes dogma
We would rather be wrong than uncertain
@tastapod
So we resist uncertainty
We resist uncertainty of scope We resist uncertainty of technology We resist uncertainty of effort We resist uncertainty of structure
We resist uncertainty of the future
@tastapod
Three Ages: a model of growth
1. Explore - optimize for discovery
2. Stabilize
- optimize for repeatability
3. Commoditize
- optimize for efficiency
Agile methods optimize for the Second Age
@tastapod
Agile methods optimize for certainty
Certainty gives us predictability
Predictability gives us repeatability
Repeatability gives us a feeling of safety
@tastapod
Deliberate discovery
Ignorance is your biggest constraint
You are second order ignorant (but not third!)
Ignorance is multivariate and disjoint
Some unexpected bad things will happen
@tastapod
Deliberate discovery
Ignorance is your biggest constraint
You are second order ignorant (but not third!)
Ignorance is multivariate and disjoint
Some unexpected bad things will happen
@tastapod
Deliberate discovery
Ignorance is your biggest constraint
You are second order ignorant (but not third!)
Ignorance is multivariate and disjoint
Some unexpected bad things will happen
@tastapod
Deliberate discovery
Ignorance is your biggest constraint
You are second order ignorant (but not third!)
Ignorance is multivariate and disjoint
Some unexpected bad things will happen
@tastapod
Real Options
Options have value
Options expire
Commit deliberately
“Never commit early unless you know why”
@tastapod
Embracing uncertainty
Embrace uncertainty of scope
Embrace uncertainty of technology
Embrace uncertainty of effort
Embrace uncertainty of structure
@tastapod
Why you won’t believe me
Attribution bias
Confirmation bias
Bias bias
But most of all, that craving for certainty!
@tastapod
tl; dr
Expect the unexpected
@tastapod
tl; dr
Expect the unexpectable
Anticipate ignorance
Embrace uncertainty – it’s inevitable!
@tastapod
