Ekurhuleni 2055

Growth and Development Strategy

Presentation to Economic Stakeholders for Initial Input &

Comment

Shahid Solomon

Strategy Department

7 may 2012

2. What is a Growth & Development Strategy?

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Key Aspects of a Growth and Development Strategy

GROWTH: More people, from 3 million today to 6 million by 2055Bigger Economy, more wealth & investment Expanding the City & making it more dense

DEVELOPMENT: Change to deal with new risks & opportunities Transformation to a more inclusive society

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Key Aspects of a Growth and Development Strategy

STRATEGY: What

Goals, objectives, targets for growth & development

How Leadership

Delivering services & infrastructure

Regulating

Who Alone or in partnership

When: by 2020? By 2030? By 2055?

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What is the difference between the Growth and Development Strategy and the IDP?

The IDP is a detailed 5 year plan which is linked to the municipal budget and service delivery plansThe GDS is a broad brush long term 10 – 50 year plan that embraces all of government and stakeholdersThe GDS guides the IDP

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Key Aspects of a Growth and Development Strategy: A FRAMEWORK

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Today’s Focus: what are economic implications of the GDS ?

Other Work Streams: Urban Planning & Built Environment 8 May 2012 (Morning)

Transport (Taxi Industry) 9 May 2012 (Afternoon)

Transport & Logistics 9 May 2012 (Evening)

City Governance & Financial Sustainability 10 May 2012

2. Ekurhuleni’s Development Journey

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Four time frames

Four time frames:

Natures Gift

Towns, Mines & Factories 1905 – 1955

City Region, Freeways & Malls 1955 – 2012

Place of People Prosperity 2012-2055

Natures Gift

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KEY CHARACTERISTICS • Gentle slopes of grassy

highvelds • Streams and wetlands • Reserves of coal and gold below

the ground

DRIVERS• Expression of Indigenous

Cultures• Seasonal Migration• Rural Life Experiences

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Towns, Mines & Factories 1905 – 1955

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Towns, Mines & Factories 1905 – 1955

CHARACTERISTICS Main Reef Road Nine Towns Mines & Industries

Hostels Townships

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City Region, Freeways & Malls 1955 – 2012+ 100 Years Since Modern Settlement

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City Region, Freeways & Malls 1955 – 2012+ 100 Years Since Modern Settlement

CHARACTERISTICS International airport, Regional Freeway system

Mega Malls, Super Suburbs

3. Gazing into the future

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MEGATRENDS: GLOBALISATION

More than 50% of world GDP generated by trade in 2030 The world’s economic centre of gravity will shift from the West to Asia Chinese economy overtaking that of the US by 2025 and India following close behindAfrica catching up well by 2050

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MEGATRENDS: GLOBALISATION

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MEGATRENDS: GLOBAL WARMING

Global warming to a maximum of 2 degrees, ever stricter control of carbon emissions will take place

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MEGATRENDS: MORE EXPENSIVE ENERGY

Pressure on oil supply - shift from a fossil fuel based economy to one based on renewable energy

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MEGATRENDS: MORE EXPENSIVE ENERGY

Energy expensive as a huge investment is made in an alternative energy regime

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MEGATRENDS: TECHNOLOGY TRANSFORMATION

Dematerialisation Imbedded Chips in everything 3D Printing Hydrogen Fuel Cells Bio feedstock & fuels Membrane Technology Biotechnology Nanotechnology.

Mass Customisation Localisation of Production

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MEGATRENDS: TECHNOLOGY TRANSFORMATION

Convergence of Biology (the last fronteir) Nanoscience & Information Science Artificial Intelligence: The Singularity

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MEGATRENDS: TOURISM STAYS WORLDS BIGGEST & FASTEST GROWING INDUSTRY

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MEGATRENDS: AFRICA RISES

The African continent will grow by at least a billion people and this will involve both the creation of massive new markets for the GCR as well as ever more competition from better located and more efficient production complexes

SA will compete with other African countries, especially in West Africa

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MEGATRENDS: AFRICA RISES

The future of the Gauteng City Region will be strongly influenced by its capacity to attract African skills, trade and tourism and to export its skills and knowledge.

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CONTEXT DRIVER: GAUTENG CITY REGION

The Gauteng City Region is expected to double in size from some 12 million to 25 million people by 2055

Ekurhuleni will either capture the skills, energy and ideas of an emerging skilled and globally connected middle class

Or be a choice of least resistance for a growing under class who seek any means of shelter and survival close to the urban core

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CONTEXT DRIVER: GAUTENG CITY REGION

Climate change impacts and falling rural employment may accelerate the flow of unskilled migrants from South Africa and other African countries, placing additional pressure on Ekurhuleni’s capacity to cope with settlement demands

Within the GCR the spatial patterns of investment and opportunity will shift as the land market shifts and the space economy links up new centres of production

3. Ekurhuleni 2055

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Transitioning to People City 2012 -2055+ 150 Years Since Modern Settlement

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Transitioning to a People City (2012-2055)

INDUSTRIAL CITY 1905-1955 (AMARTURE)

POST INDUSTRIAL CITY 1955-2012 (OCTOPUS)

PEOPLE CITY 2012-2055 (LIVEABLE)

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POSSIBLE STRUCTURAL FRAMEWORK

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POSSIBLE INDUSTRIAL & LOGISTICS FRAMEWORK

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POSSIBLE GREEN FRAMEWORK

THANK YOU