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The Demography of Texas: Population Characteristics and
Trends Nonprofits Need to Know
Texas Nonprofit Summit
September 8, 2011Austin, TX
2
Growing States, 2000-2010
2000Population*
2010Population*
NumericalChange
2000-2010
PercentChange
2000-2010
United States 281,421,906 308,745,538 27,323,632 9.7%
Texas 20,851,820 25,145,561 4,293,741 20.6%
California 33,871,648 37,253,956 3,382,308 10.0%
Florida 15,982,378 18,801,310 2,818,932 17.6%Georgia 8,186,453 9,687,653 1,501,200 18.3%
North Carolina 8,049,313 9,535,483 1,486,170 18.5%
Arizona 5,130,632 6,392,017 1,261,385 24.6%
Population values are decennial census counts for April 1 for 2000 and 2010.
15.7% of numerical change in U.S.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Count.
3
Percent ChangeDue to
Year* PopulationNumerical
ChangeNatural
IncreaseNet
MigrationPercentChange
NaturalIncrease
NetMigration
1950 7,711,194 -- -- -- -- -- --
1960 9,579,677 1,868,483 1,754,652 113,831 24.2 93.91 6.09
1970 11,196,730 1,617,053 1,402,683 214,370 16.9 86.74 13.26
1980 14,229,191 3,032,461 1,260,794 1,771,667 27.1 41.58 58.42
1990 16,986,510 2,757,319 1,815,670 941,649 19.9 65.85 34.15
2000 20,851,820 3,865,310 1,919,281 1,946,029 22.8 49.65 50.35
2009 24,782,302 3,930,484 2,124,124 1,781,785 18.8 54.04 45.33
* All values for the decennial dates are for the indicated census year. Values for 2009 is for July 1 as estimated by the U.S. Bureau of the Census.
Source: Derived from U.S. Bureau of the Census Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas State Data Center, University of Texas at San Antonio.Note: Residual values are not presented in this table.
Total Population and Components of Population Change in Texas, 1950-2009
4
Texas Business-Cycle Index
5
Texas Total Nonfarm EmploymentQuarterly Growth
6
Texas Residential Permits and Mortgage Rate
7
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
2000 to 2001
2001 to 2002
2002 to 2003
2003 to 2004
2004 to 2005
2005 to 2006
2006 to 2007
2007 to 2008
2008 to 2009
International
State-to-State
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census 2009 Estimates
Estimated Annual Net Migration to Texas, 2000 to 2009
8
Percent of Migrants to Texas between 2000 and 2009 by Race and Ethnicity
Net domesti
c migr
ation
Internati
onal migr
ation
Total0%
10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
44%24% 33%
28%50% 40%
23% 8% 15%
5%18% 12%
OtherBlackHispanicWhite
67% of all migrants
Sources: Percentages of domestic and international migrants by race and ethnicity derived from the 2006-2008 American Community Survey. Total numbers of domestic and international migrants between 2000-2009 are from Table 4. Cumulative Estimates of the Components of Resident Population Change for the United States, Regions, States, and Puerto Rico: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2009, U.S. Census Bureau
(848,702 migrants ) (933,083 migrants)
52% of all migrants were international
9
Estimated domestic migration (2000-2008) by county as a percentage of 2000 population
Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, March 19, 2009. Map produced by the Texas State Data Center
Legend
-20 to -45%
-19 to -10%
-9 to -5%
-4 to 0%
1 to 5 %
6 to 20%
21 to 30%
31 to 65%
10
Legend
0-1%
1-2.5%
2.5-3.5%
3.5-5%
5-10%
Estimated international migration (2000-2008) by county as a percentage of 2000 population
Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, March 19, 2009. Map produced by the Texas State Data Center
Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition, 2000 and 2010
NH White53%
NH Black12%
NH Other
4%
Hispanic or Latino
32%
2000
NH White45%
NH Black11%
NH Other
6%
His-panic or Latino38%
2010
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census count
12
Total Population by County, 2010
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Census Counts
Legend
co48_d00
'PROJECTIONS X$'.totpop10
82 - 10,000
10,001 - 50,000
50,001 - 100,001
100,001 - 500,001
500,001 - 1,000,000
1,000,001 - 4,100,000
13
Change of the Total Population by County, 2000-2010
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000 and 2010 Census Counts
Legend
co48_d00
'PROJECTIONS X$'.totpopch0010
-3,200 - 0
1 - 10,000
10,001 - 50,000
50,001 - 100,000
100,001 - 700,000
14
Percent Change of Total Population in Texas Counties, 2000-2010
Population increase for Texas was 20.6% during this period
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Counts
Water'PROJECTIONS X$'.pctch0010
-20%-0%
1%-10%
10.1-25%
25.1%-50%
50.1%-82%
Physicians per 1,000 Population 2010'PROJECTIONS X$'.difphys
-3 to -0.5
-0.49 to -.001
0
.001 to .5
.51-2.1
15
Numeric change in Hispanic population, by county, 2000-2010
Numeric Change Hispanic 2000-2010nch_hsp0010
-1,200 - 0
1 - 1,000
1,001 - 5,000
5,001 - 15,000
15,001 - 25,000
25,001 - 56,000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Counts
16
Numeric change in Asian population, by county, 2000-2010
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Counts
Numeric Change Asian 2000-2010nch_asi0010
-198 - 0
1 - 500
501 - 10,000
10,001 - 50,000
50,001 - 77,000
17
0-4 yrs
5-9 yrs
10-14 yrs
15-19 yrs
20-24 yrs
25-29 yrs
30-34 yrs
35-39 yrs
40-44 yrs
45-49 yrs
50-54 yrs
55-59 yrs
60-64 yrs
65-69 yrs
70-74 yrs
75-79 yrs
80-84 yrs
85+ yrs
1,200,000 800,000 400,000 0 400,000 800,000 1,200,000
Anglo Male Hispanic Male Black Male Other Male Anlgo Female Hispanic Female
Black Female Other Female
Projected Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010
Source: Texas State Data Center Population Projections, 2009
18
0-4 yrs
5-9 yrs
10-14 yrs
15-19 yrs
20-24 yrs
25-29 yrs
30-34 yrs
35-39 yrs
40-44 yrs
45-49 yrs
50-54 yrs
55-59 yrs
60-64 yrs
65-69 yrs
70-74 yrs
75-79 yrs
80-84 yrs
85+ yrs
800000 400000 0 400000 800000
Anglo Male Anlgo Female
Projected Texas Population Pyramids by Race/Ethnicity, 2010
Source: Texas State Data Center Population Projections, 2009
0-4 yrs
5-9 yrs
10-14 yrs
15-19 yrs
20-24 yrs
25-29 yrs
30-34 yrs
35-39 yrs
40-44 yrs
45-49 yrs
50-54 yrs
55-59 yrs
60-64 yrs
65-69 yrs
70-74 yrs
75-79 yrs
80-84 yrs
85+ yrs
800000 400000 0 400000 800000
Hispanic Male Black Male Other Male Hispanic Female Black Female
Other Female
19
Population Aged 65 Years and Older by County, 2009 Estimated
Percent of the Total Population aged 65 Pct 2009TOT_POPP9
LE 10%
GT 10% - LE 15%
GT 15% - LE 20%
GT 20% - LE 25%
GT 25%
Total Population aged 65 plus 2009TOT_POP9
LE 5,000
GT 5,000 - LE 15,000
GT 15,000 - LE 25,000
GT 25,000 - LE 100,000
GT 100,000
Percent 65 Years and Older Population 65 Years and Older
Source: Texas State Data Center. 2009 Population Estimates.Maps produced by the Texas State Data Center.
Percent of Persons Aged 65 Years and Older by County, 2000 Census and 2040 Projected
2000 Count 2040 Projection
Percent 65 Years Old and Older
< 11.9 (n=66)
12.0 - 14.9 (n=70)
15.0 - 19.9 (n=80)
20.0 or more (n=38)
Source: Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic Research,The University of Texas at San Antonio. Census 2000 Summary File 1.
Percent 65 Years Old and Older
< 11.9 (n=2)
12.0 - 14.9 (n=19)
15.0 - 19.9 (n=79)
20.0 or more (n=154)
Source: Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic Research,The University of Texas at San Antonio. Texas Population Estimatesand Projections Program, 2006 Projections.
<11.912.0 – 14.915.0 – 19.920.0 or more
20
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 Census Count. Texas State Data Center. 2009 Population Projections.Maps produced by the Texas State Data Center.
21
Projected Population Among Older Texans
20002003
20062009
20122015
20182021
20242027
20302033
20362039
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
Age 65-74 Age 75-85 Age 85+
Source: Texas State Data Center. 2008 Population Projections, 2000-2004 Migration Scenario.
2000 2010 2020 2030 20400.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00AngloHispanicAfrican AmericanOther
Projection of Ethnicity of Texas PopulationAged 65 Years and Older, 2000 to 2040
22Source: Texas State Data Center. 2008 Population Projections, 2000-2004 Migration Scenario.
Percent of population that is foreign born, 2005-2009
Percent Foreign Born0-5%
5-10%
10-15%
15-25%
25-35%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample 2005-2009
Percent of the Population Less than 18 Years of Age, Living Under Poverty for During Past 12 Months, 2005-2009
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample 2005-2009
5-20%
20-30%
30-40%
40-55%
$18,000-30,000
$ 30,000-35,000
$ 35,000-40,000
$40,000-50,000
$ 50,000-76,000
Median Household Income by County, 2005-2009
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample 2005-2009
26Source: Texas State Data Center 2008 Population Projections
Year
Projected Population Growth in Texas, 2000-2040
2040 Population
P_40
36 - 1000
1001 - 10000
10001 - 50000
50001 - 100000
100001 - 500000
500001 - 1000000
1000001 - 8000000
Projected Population for Texas Counties, 2040
Texas State Data Center, vintage 2008 population projections. Migration scenario 2 (2000-2007).
Percent Projected Change of Total Population in Texas Counties, 2008-2040
29
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
AngloBlackHispanicOther
Source: Texas State Data Center 2008 Population Projections , 2000-2007 Migration Scenario
Projected Racial and Ethnic Percent, Texas, 2000-2040
Percent of the population 5 and over who speak English less than very well by state, 2009
Californ
iaTexa
s
Nevada
New York
New Jerse
y
Hawaii
Florid
a
Arizona
New Mexic
o
Miss
issippi
North Dak
ota
Vermont
Montan
a
West
Virginia
0
5
10
15
20
25
Source: American Community Survey, 2009
Percent of the population 5 and over who speak Spanish at home, 2009
Texas
Californ
ia
New Mexic
o
Arizona
Nevada
Florid
a
New Jerse
y
New York
Montan
a
North Dak
ota
Main
e
West
Virginia
Vermont
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Source: American Community Survey, 2009
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample 2006-2009
Percent of the population 5 and over who speak Spanish at home, 2006-2009Percent aged 5 years plus who speak Spanish at home
0-10%
10-25%
25-50%
50-75%
75-96%
Percent of population aged 25 years and older with
high school or equivalent degree or higher, 2005-2009
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample 2005-2009
Percent 25+ with High School Degree45-55%
55-65%
65-75%
75-85%
85-98%
34
Educational attainment of persons 25+ years of age by ethnicity, Texas, 2009
Non-Hispanic WhiteHispanic
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
8%43%
25%
25%33%
21%34%
11%
Bachelor's degree or higherSome college or as-sociate's degreeHigh school graduate, GED, or alternativeLess than high school diploma
Source: American Community Survey, 2009
Projected Percent of Labor Force by Educational Attainment in Texas, 2000 and 2040
* Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario
18.8
29 28.7
18.2
5.3
30.128.7
23.9
12.9
4.4
No High School Diploma
High School Graduate
Some College
Bachelor's Degree
Graduate/Prof.Degree
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Percent
2000 2040
Source: Texas State Data Center. 2009 Population Projections.
18 55 65 75 850.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
Self-care limitation
Any-Limitation
Percent of Texans Reporting a Self-CareLimitation or Any Limitation by Age, 2007
Source: Texas State Data Center tabulation of U.S. Bureau of the Census American Community Survey, 2007.
37
Projected Growth of the 65 Year Old and Over Population Reporting a Self-Care Limitation for Texas, 2000-2040
(Assuming Constant Age/Sex/Race/Ethnic Rates of Disability)
2000 2010 2020 2030 20400
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
Source: Office of the State Demographer. 2000-2004 Projection Scenario.
38
Physicians per 1,000 Population Aged 65 Years and Older by County, 2008
Physcians per 1,000 persons aged 65+'Age 65p County$'.Physper1k65p
0
GT 0 - LE 5
GT 5 - LE 10
GT 10 - LE 20
GT 20
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2009 Population Estimates. Texas Medical Board.Map produced by the Texas State Data Center.
39
Physicians per 1,000 Population, 2010
Physicians per 1,000 Population 2000'PROJECTIONS X$'.phys001
0
.01-.5
.51-1
1.1-1.5
1.51-4
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Counts. Texas Medical Board. Maps produced by the Texas State Data Center.
Physicians per 1,000 Population 2010'PROJECTIONS X$'.difphys
-3 to -0.5
-0.49 to -.001
0
.001 to .5
.51-2.1
Physician Rate Physician Rate Change, 2000-2010
Not Border Border Not Border BorderNon-Metro Non-Metro Metropolitan Metropolitan Total
020406080
100120140160180200
95
53
175
110
159
2009Sources: U.S. Census Bureau. 2009 Estimates.Department of State Health Services. Health Professions Resource Center Database.
Physicians per 100,000 byMetro & Border Status of Counties, 2009
40
41
Projected Increase in Obesity in Texas by Ethnicity, 2006 to 2040
Source: Office of the State Demographer projections, using 2000-2004 migration scenario population projections
42
Estimated Number of Adults with Obesity in Texas by County, 2008
Legend
co48_d00
Sheet1$.Nadultobes
0-10,000
10,001-25,000
25,001-75,000
75,001-250,000
250,001-73,000
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: National Diabetes Surveillance System. Available online at: http://apps.nccd.cdc.gov/DDTSTRS/default.aspx.
43
Projected Number of Adults with Diabetes by Race and Ethnicity, Texas, 2010-2040
2010
2020
2030
2040
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
Total Latino Anglo African American Other
Source: Office of the State Demographer, 2010
44
Demographics and Destiny
45
Contact
Office: (512) 463-8390 or (210) 458-6530Email: [email protected]: http://osd.state.tx.us
Lloyd Potter, Ph.D.
