Delphi Pt, Isi(2003)

ISI-FhG 3 Februar 2003 (Karlsruhe) 1

Delphi exercises in PortugalDelphi exercises in Portugal:cases from the fisheries sector,

information society & employment and telework

António Brandão Moniz António Brandão Moniz (Associate Professor at FCT-UNL)(Associate Professor at FCT-UNL)

[email protected]@isi.fhg.de


Recent prospective analysis

■ Scenario exercises on long range for the National Scenario exercises on long range for the National Energy Plan (Ministry of Industry and Energy), 1995-Energy Plan (Ministry of Industry and Energy), 1995-20152015

■ MARHE project (ADEPE, MTS, 1998-99)MARHE project (ADEPE, MTS, 1998-99)■ ET2000 project (IST-UNL, ME, 1999-2000)ET2000 project (IST-UNL, ME, 1999-2000)■ IS-Emp (FCT-UNL, ISEG-UTL, MTS, 2000-02)IS-Emp (FCT-UNL, ISEG-UTL, MTS, 2000-02)■ TeleRisk project (IET/FCT-UNL, IDICT, 2002-03)TeleRisk project (IET/FCT-UNL, IDICT, 2002-03)■ WorTiS project (IET/FCT-UNL, MCES, 2001 - )WorTiS project (IET/FCT-UNL, MCES, 2001 - )


National Energy Plan scenarios - 1

■ DPP-Min. Plan and Territorial ManagementDPP-Min. Plan and Territorial Management◆ hypothesis based on the scenarios proposed by hypothesis based on the scenarios proposed by

the Central Planning Bureau of Holland, 1992the Central Planning Bureau of Holland, 1992✦ ““Global change” - AGlobal change” - A✦ ““European renaissance” - BEuropean renaissance” - B✦ ““Global crisis”Global crisis”✦ ““Balanced growth” - CBalanced growth” - C

◆ Periods:Periods:✦ 1995/2000 - 2001/2007 - 2008/20151995/2000 - 2001/2007 - 2008/2015


National Energy Plan scenarios - 2■ ScenariosScenarios % anual growth of GDP (2008/15) % anual growth of GDP (2008/15)■ A A 2,0%2,0%■ BB 2,6%2,6%■ C C 2,9%2,9%■ ----------- Labour productivity (GDP/employment)----------- Labour productivity (GDP/employment)■ 19951995 2000 2000 2007 2007 20152015■ AA 33163316 3854 3854 45184518 53565356■ BB 33163316 3967 3967 49684968 63336333■ CC 33163316 4023 4023 50635063 64986498


EN2000

■ Prospective study on engineering and Prospective study on engineering and technology in Portugal (1999-2000)technology in Portugal (1999-2000)

■ OEng, AEng, Assoc.Ind.Port.OEng, AEng, Assoc.Ind.Port.■ 18 sectoral studies18 sectoral studies■ 3 macroeconomical scenarios (2000-20) 3 macroeconomical scenarios (2000-20)

based on competitivity/proteccionism based on competitivity/proteccionism dualityduality

■ Final conference (Lisbon, Nov. 2000)Final conference (Lisbon, Nov. 2000)


Phases of ET2000

■ A - Analysis of trends, main products and A - Analysis of trends, main products and knowledge demands (diagnosis)knowledge demands (diagnosis)

■ B - Scenarios: products and challenges. B - Scenarios: products and challenges. SWOT analysis. Knowledge role.SWOT analysis. Knowledge role.

■ C - Strategies and options. PrioritiesC - Strategies and options. Priorities◆ Source: V. Tavares: Engenharia e Tecnologia 2000, Lisboa, 2001


Technology foresight and policy

■ The foresight exercises were developed as tools for The foresight exercises were developed as tools for economical planning policieseconomical planning policies

■ EN2000 was an aggregation of reports on several topics EN2000 was an aggregation of reports on several topics of engineering trends and needs, as the main element of engineering trends and needs, as the main element for a technological developmentfor a technological development

■ There are until now no S&T policy foresight exercisesThere are until now no S&T policy foresight exercises■ This policy as been casuistic, dependent on academic This policy as been casuistic, dependent on academic

lobbyings on political structurelobbyings on political structure


Technology and Delphi exercises■ EC programmes on R&D helped the EC programmes on R&D helped the

internacionalisation of Portuguese research internacionalisation of Portuguese research activities and technological developmentactivities and technological development

■ Forecasting technological changes is not seen as Forecasting technological changes is not seen as important for options and choices at political and important for options and choices at political and economical levelseconomical levels

■ New Delphi exercises held after ASTPP network New Delphi exercises held after ASTPP network (reference to British, French and German cases)(reference to British, French and German cases)

■ These exercises were integrated in R&D projects These exercises were integrated in R&D projects and focused on specific sectors.and focused on specific sectors.


Sectoral Delphi exercises■ Fisheries socio-economical system (MARHE): Fisheries socio-economical system (MARHE):

fisheries, aquaculture, shipbuilding, fisheries, aquaculture, shipbuilding, manufacturing, commercemanufacturing, commerce

■ Information society and employment (IS-Information society and employment (IS-Emp)Emp)

■ Telework, labour relations and working Telework, labour relations and working conditions (TeleRisk)conditions (TeleRisk)

■ The futures of automobile industry (WorTiS)The futures of automobile industry (WorTiS)


MARHE project: Options for a new MARHE project: Options for a new research strategyresearch strategy

■ prospective approach: scenarios elaboration ■ interdisciplinary approach: co-operation of different

scientific areas (biology, sociology, economy, demography, geography, robotic engineering) to elaborate integrated propositive strategies (recommendations, visions, trends)

■ participatory research procedures (regular co-operation of social scientists with unions, employers, research and education institutes, local authorities, industrialists).


MARHE research techniques MARHE research techniques (surveys)(surveys)

■ Delphi survey: around 50 respondents representative of social actors, expertises, geographical regions;

■ Survey to youth attitudes applied to 1200 people from all main fisheries communities in Portugal;

■ quality management survey for production industries (around 40 firms);

■ R&D infrastructure survey (with semi-directive interviews)


Scenarios (phase 1 MARHE)lack of strategy renewed system

+

Capacity 3 4for thesystem

innovation 1 2

- Strategical orientation of the system+

catastrophy unbalanced system


Phase 1 of MARHE-Delphi

■ Experts panel with 90 membersExperts panel with 90 members■ Questionnaire with 58 scenario themesQuestionnaire with 58 scenario themes■ Survey on May 97 to those expertsSurvey on May 97 to those experts■ 35 validated answers35 validated answers■ Public presentation of results (Seminars Public presentation of results (Seminars

MARHE, Out 97 and Dec 98, Peniche )MARHE, Out 97 and Dec 98, Peniche )


Phase 2 of MARHE-Delphi

■ 15 themes considered as most important 15 themes considered as most important (main variables) by the panel(main variables) by the panel

■ Survey of 40 questionnaires (Jan 99)Survey of 40 questionnaires (Jan 99)■ 26 expert answers (Mar 1999, presentation 26 expert answers (Mar 1999, presentation

and debate at 3rd Seminar Peniche)and debate at 3rd Seminar Peniche)■ Final report(Apr 1999)Final report(Apr 1999)


Main scenarios (phase 2 MARHE)

■ Crisis overcome Crisis overcome (C1)(C1)- - Change of paradigm Change of paradigm

(renewed system)(renewed system)

-- Parcial developmentParcial development

-- Limited possibilities of Limited possibilities of developmentdevelopment

■ Crisis deepening Crisis deepening (C2)(C2)-- No employment renewingNo employment renewing

-- No marine resources No marine resources renovationrenovation

-- No sectoral articulation of No sectoral articulation of negociation formsnegociation forms

-- Dis-articulation of social Dis-articulation of social partnerspartners

-- Technology transfer without Technology transfer without endogeneisation.endogeneisation.


IS-Emp Project

■ IS-Emp 1 (The influence of information IS-Emp 1 (The influence of information society on employment)society on employment)

■ IS-Emp 2 (The development of employment IS-Emp 2 (The development of employment in the information society)in the information society)

■ MTS, Ministry of Labour and Solidarity, MTS, Ministry of Labour and Solidarity, FCT-UNL and ISEG-UTLFCT-UNL and ISEG-UTL

■ 1999 - 20011999 - 2001


IS-Emp 1

■ Experts panel with 250 membersExperts panel with 250 members■ Questionnaire with 76 scenario themesQuestionnaire with 76 scenario themes■ Workshop (1999) to validate themes and Workshop (1999) to validate themes and

methodology,methodology,■ Survey on 2000 to those expertsSurvey on 2000 to those experts■ 42 validated answers42 validated answers■ book - A.B. Moniz; I. Kovács (coords) book - A.B. Moniz; I. Kovács (coords) Sociedade da Sociedade da

Informação e EmpregoInformação e Emprego, Lisbon, DGEFP-MTS, 2001, 264 pp., Lisbon, DGEFP-MTS, 2001, 264 pp.


IS-Emp 2

■ Experts panel with 60 membersExperts panel with 60 members■ Questionnaire with _ scenario themesQuestionnaire with _ scenario themes■ Workshop (2000) to validate themes and Workshop (2000) to validate themes and

methodology,methodology,■ Survey on 2000 to those expertsSurvey on 2000 to those experts■ _ validated answers_ validated answers■ book - A.B. Moniz (coord) book - A.B. Moniz (coord) Futuros do emprego na Futuros do emprego na

sociedade da informação sociedade da informação , Lisbon, DGEFP-MTS, 2002, 264 , Lisbon, DGEFP-MTS, 2002, 264 pp.pp.


Invariants■ Economical structure based on the diversity of productive Economical structure based on the diversity of productive

specialisationspecialisation■ Low average level (at European scale) of labour qualificationLow average level (at European scale) of labour qualification■ Political promotion of Information SocietyPolitical promotion of Information Society■ Stable structure of unemploymentStable structure of unemployment■ Strong investiment on technology during 90’sStrong investiment on technology during 90’s■ Modernisation of enterpreneurial organisaion mechanismsModernisation of enterpreneurial organisaion mechanisms■ Lack of traditino on inter-institutional co-operation Lack of traditino on inter-institutional co-operation

(associations, state, R&D, companies)(associations, state, R&D, companies)■ Labour market regulatedLabour market regulated


Scenarios IS-Emp

■ Scenario 1 - Competitivity through the Scenario 1 - Competitivity through the precarisation generates social dualisationprecarisation generates social dualisation

■ Scenario 2 - Quality through organisation and Scenario 2 - Quality through organisation and qualification: Information Society for allqualification: Information Society for all

■ Scenario 3 - Blocking uncertainties I Scenario 3 - Blocking uncertainties I (Profissional segmentation)(Profissional segmentation)

■ Scenario 4 - Blocking uncertainties II Scenario 4 - Blocking uncertainties II (Technological promotion) (Technological promotion)


TeleRisk

■ Telework, labour relations and occupational Telework, labour relations and occupational risksrisks

■ IDICT-Institute for Working Conditions, IDICT-Institute for Working Conditions, Ministry of Labour and SolidarityMinistry of Labour and Solidarity

■ case studies in software, metal engineering case studies in software, metal engineering and textile industriesand textile industries


Phase 1 TeleRisk project

■ state-of-the-art report (2002)state-of-the-art report (2002)■ 24 scenario themes24 scenario themes■ 42 experts panel42 experts panel■ event period: 2003 - 2025event period: 2003 - 2025■ Workshop with the panel (Jan. 2003)Workshop with the panel (Jan. 2003)■ survey application (Feb. 2003)survey application (Feb. 2003)


Next exercises

■ WorTiS project on “Work systems, Time WorTiS project on “Work systems, Time and Space in Automobile Industry”and Space in Automobile Industry”◆ FCT-UNL and CEG-FLULFCT-UNL and CEG-FLUL◆ 3 research teams (sociology, history and 3 research teams (sociology, history and

geography)geography)◆ 1st Delphi round to start on March 20031st Delphi round to start on March 2003

■ Proposal for a global S&T foresightProposal for a global S&T foresight

Business

Delphi Pt, Isi(2003)