Curso Ger. Riscos - Dia 01 / Parte 1

1º Seminário de Gerenciamento de Riscos do Distrito

Federal

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PMI – Capítulo DF PMI – Risk SigTreinamento e Consultoria

1st Risk Management Seminar of Distrito Federal


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PROJECTPROJECTRISKRISKPLANNINGPLANNING

Edward J. Fern, MS, PMP

[email protected]


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Planejamento do Planejamento do GerenciamentoGerenciamentode Riscosde Riscos

Edward J. Fern, MS, PMP

[email protected]


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Introduction

• Do you know that most projects are late and exceed the planned budget?

• Is it strange?• Not for me!• Because I know that, in most projects,

project risk management processes were not properly applied and necessary reserves were not created.


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Introdução

• Você sabe que a maioria dos projetos atrasam e ultrapassam o orçamento planejado?

• Isto é estranho?• Não para mim.• Isso por que eu sei que, na maioria dos

projetos, os processos de gerenciamento de riscos não são aplicados de forma apropriada e nem as reservas necessárias são criadas.


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Introduction

• Project risk management is a tool for setting reasonable and achievable goals and making project success reliable.


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• O gerenciamento de riscos em projetos é uma ferramenta para se estabelecer objetivos possíveis e razoáveis e estabelecer confiança no sucesso de projetos.

Introdução


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Risk Management Processes

• PMBOK GUIDE defines six risk management processes:

1. RISK MANAGEMENT PLANNING2. RISK IDENTIFICATION3. QUALITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS4. QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS5. RISK RESPONSE PLANNING6. RISK MONITORING AND CONTROL


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Processos de Gerenciamento de Riscos

• O Guia PMBOK define seis processos de Gerenciamento de Riscos:


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• This sequence is not perfect.• True sequence of Risk Management

processes is presented on the next slide. You may notice that there are seven of them.

• It does not make sense to simulate project risks before risk response development.


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• Esta seqüência não é perfeita. • A seqüência verdadeira para os

processos de Gerenciamento de riscos está apresentada no próximo slide.

• Você poderá perceber que são sete processos.

• Não faz sentido realizar a simulação de riscos antes do desenvolvimento das respostas aos riscos.



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• True sequence of risk management processes:

1. RISK MANAGEMENT PLANNING2. RISK IDENTIFICATION3. QUALITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS4. QUANTITATIVE ESTIMATE OF PROJECT

RISK EVENTS AND ALTERNATIVES5. RISK RESPONSE PLANNING6. RISK SUMULATION AND SETTING

TARGETS7. RISK MONITORING AND CONTROL


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• In this presentation we will discuss risk management planning.


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• Nesta parte da apresentação, nós iremos discutir o Planejamento do Gerenciamento de Riscos.

Processos do Gerenciamento de Riscos


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BETTING LIVES

HOW SEVEN

PEOPLE LOST


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Apostando Vidas

COMO SETE

PESSOAS PERDERAM


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OPPORTUNITY

NASA was prepared to launch its first civilian, a teacher named Christa Mcauliffe, just ahead of President Reagan’s State of the Union address.


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Oportunidade

A NASA estava preparada para enviar o primeiro astronauta civil, uma professora chamada Chirsta Mcauliffe, um pouco antes do Discurso do Presidente Regan para a União.


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THREAT

Temperatures on the night before the launch were expected to reach as

cold as 18oF (-9

oC),

over thirty degrees colder than any other launch.


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Ameaça

As temperaturas na noite anterior poderiam chegar a

18oF (-9

oC), mais de

treze graus abaixo do que em qualquer outro lançamento espacial.


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UNCERTAINTY

Shuttle Flight 51-B, taking place on April 25, 1985, evidenced severe O-ring erosion in both the primary and secondary seals. This brought into question the redundancy of the secondary seal.


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Incerteza

O vôo 51-B da Shuttle, que aconteceu em 25 de abril de 1985, já tinha demonstrado uma erosão severa nos anéis primário e secundário de vedação. Já se havia questionado a redundância do anel secundário.


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WARNING!

...The secondary O-ring cannot respond to the clevis opening rate and may not be capable of pressurization. The result would be a catastrophe of the highest order -- loss of human life...


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Perigo!...O anel secundário não tem capacidade para responder ao fluxo de gases e pode não ser capaz de suportar a pressão.

O resultado seria uma catástrofe do mais alto grau – a perda de vidas humanas.


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RESULTS


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RESULTADOS


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RESULTS


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RESULTADOS


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QUESTIONS

• Could the outcomes have been different?

YES!

• What would have made a difference?

Active

Risk

Management


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Questões

• O resultado poderia ter sido diferente? SIM!

• O quê poderia ter feito a diferença? Active Risk

Management(Gerenciamento Ativo de Riscos)


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ASSIGNING RESPONSIBILITY

Manager Jerald Mason said to a subordinate,

"Take off your engineering hat and put on your management hat."


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DETERMINANDO RESPONSABILIDADES

O gerente Jerald Mason disse a um subordinado,

“Tire o seu chapéu de engenheiro e coloque o chapéu de gerente. "


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BETTING A FORTUNE


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APOSTANDO UMA FORTUNA


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OPPORTUNITY

If Denver moves quickly, it can be a major hub for many airlines. The passengers will spend money in Denver.


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OPORTUNIDADE

Se Denver agir rapidamente, ele pode se tornar um dos principais terminais para muitas companhias aéreas. Os passageiros irão gastar dinheiro em Denver.


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THREAT

The plan for the new Denver airport included a long list of features that were relatively new to the airline industry. Among those new features was an Automated Baggage Handling System or ABHS.


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AMEAÇA

O plano para o novo aeroporto de Denver

incluia uma longa lista de recursos relativamente

novas para a indústria de aerolíneas. Entre estes

novos recursos estava o sistema automático de

manipulação de bagagens (ABHS).


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UNCERTAINTIES

• Would other cities build airports to compete with Denver?

• Could the new features be developed quickly enough?

• Could Denver afford the huge investment?


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INCERTEZAS

• Outras cidades iriam construir aeroportos que fossem competir com Denver?

• Estes novos recursos poderiam ser desenvolvidos com a rapidez necessária?

• Denver seria capaz de bancar tamanho investimento ?


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WARNING!

When Denver asked for proposals to develop the ABHS, none of the possible suppliers chose to bid on the work.


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PERIGO!

Quando Denver solicitou propostas para o fornecimento do sistema ABHS, nenhum dos possíveis provedores de solução resolveram encaminhar suas propostas.


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WARNING!

The Munich Airport ABHS team had allowed two years of testing and six months of 24-hour operation to tune the system before cutover. They advised the Denver team to allow that much time or more.


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Perigo!

A equipe responsável pelo sistema ABHS do aeroporto de Munique havia se planejado para um teste de dois anos do sistema e outros seis meses de operação com turnos de 24 horas para ajustar o sistema antes da implementação final. Eles aconselharam Denver a repetir ou ampliar estes prazos.


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RESULTS

• Other cities did not immediately choose to compete with Denver.

• All the new features were completed on schedule except the ABHS.

• Denver paid for its new airport by borrowing money.


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RESULTADOS

• Outras cidades não resolveram competir imediatamente com Denver.

• Todos os novos recursos foram completados no prazo, com exceção do sistema ABHS.

• Denver construiu seu novo aeroporto através de empréstimos.


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RESULTS

• Because the ABHS was late, the airport was late.

• Because the airport was late, other cities began to compete.

• Because the airport was late, interest costs on the borrowed money drove Denver toward bankruptcy.


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RESULTADOS

• Em decorrência do atraso do ABHS, a inauguração do aeroporto foi postergada.

• Com o atraso do aeroporto, outras cidades começaram a competir.

• Por conta do atraso, juros sobre o dinheiro emprestado levaram a cidade de Denver à falência.


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QUESTIONS

• Could the outcomes have been different?

YES!

• What would have made a difference?

Active

Risk

Management


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QUESTÕES

• Os resultados poderiam ser diferentes ?SIM!

• O que poderia ter feito a diferença ? Active

Risk Management

(Gerenciamento Ativo de Riscos)


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A DEEPER TUNNEL


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UM TÚNEL MAIS FUNDO


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BETTING A COMPANY

Failure to take risks is very risky.


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Apostando em uma Empresa

Falhar em assumir riscos émuito arriscado.


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OPPORTUNITY

In 1972, General Motors was the fourth largest company on earth with a stock market valuation of over $ 23 billion. Its market share was still nearly 40% of all cars sold in the world.


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OPORTUNIDADE

Em 1972, A GM era a quarta maior empresa no mundo, com ações valendo mais de 23 bilhões de dólares.

Sua participação no mercado estava próxima a 40% dos carros vendidos em todo o mundo.


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OPPORTUNITY

In 1972, Toyota sold about 2% of the cars produced globally. The market value of the company was measured in Yen.


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OPORTUNIDADE

Em 1972, Toyota vendia cerca de 2% dos automóveis vendidos no mundo.

O valor de mercado da empresa era medido em Yens.


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WARNING

John DeLorean, who quit shortly after being promoted to the Fourteenth Floor, describes how he found himself buried in paperwork, wrapped up in endless committee meetings, and cut off from the business of building automobiles. DeLorean describes one executive meeting (which he says often put a third of attendees to sleep) in which a minor point of compensation was being discussed. Suddenly the chairman, Richard C. Gersternberg, barked out some orders:


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Perigo!

John DeLorean, que deixou a empresa logo depois de ser promovido ao 14º andar, descreve como ele se encontrou enterrado em papéis, amarrado por reuniões intermináveis e impedido de agir no negócio de construir automóveis.

DeLorean descreve uma reunião executiva (que ele diz que normalmente colocava 1/3 do público para dormir) onde se dicutia um pequeno ponto de compensação. De repente, o diretor, Richard C. Gersternberg, passou algumas ordens:


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WARNING

“We can’t make a decision on this now. . . . I think we ought to form a task force to look into this and come back with a report in 90 to 120 days. Then we can make a decision.” He then rattled off the members of the task force he was appointing. There was an eerie silence after the chairman spoke. It lasted for what seemed like half a day. The whole room was bewildered but no one had the courage to say why.


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Perigo!

“Nós não podemos tomar uma decisão em relação ao assunto agora… Eu acho que precisamos criar uma força tarefa e voltar neste assunto com um relatório daqui a 90 a 120 dias. Então poderemos tomar uma decisão”.

Ele então selecionou algumas pessoas para a força tarefa e houve um grande silêncio após as palavras do diretor. O silêncio pareceu durar metade do dia. Todos estavam desconfortáveis, mas ninguém tinha a coragem de dizer por quê.


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WARNING

Finally, Harold G. Warner, the snow-white-haired, kindly executive vice president, who was soon to retire, broke the silence. “Dick this presentation is the result of the task force that you appointed some time ago. Most of the people you just appointed to the new task force are on the old one.”


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Perigo!

Por fim, Harold G. Warner, o homem de cabelos brancos, gentil vice presidente executivo que estava para se aposentar quebrou o silêncio.“Dick, esta apresentação já é resultado de uma força tarefa que você mesmo criou há algum tempo. A maioria das pessoas para a nova tarefa também fazem parte da força tarefa anterior.”


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UNCERTAINTY

In 1972, a liter of petrol sold, in the United States, for about 5 cents.

In 1973, the price of petrol went to

29 cents per liter.


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Incerteza

Em 1972, um litro de gasolina era vendido nos EUA por 5 centavos.

Em 1973, o preço da gasolina foi para 29 centavos por litro.


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RESULTS

Currently General Motors sells about 28% of cars produced each year.

General Motors’ market value of $27.4 billion represents an 80% loss of value when adjusted for inflation.

Toyota has a 24% market share but a market value of $ 127.8 billion


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RESULTADOS

Atualmente a produção de carros da GM é de cerca de 28% da produção anual mundial.O seu valor de mercado, de 27 Bilhões de dólares, representa uma perda de 80% em seu valor quando ajustada pela inflação. Toyota detém 24% do mercado, mas a empresa tem um valor de mercado de 127.8 bilhões de dólares.


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BETTING A COMPANY


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Apostando uma Empresa


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OPPORTUNITY

The personal computer business has flourished the period since its inception in the late 1970s. Progress in the processing capability of these machines has been breathtaking in its speed. Processors, disk drives, memory, and many other components have brought leaps in capability while, at the same time, reducing prices.


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Oportunidade

O mercado do computador pessoal floreceu desde o seu início no final dos anos 70. O progresso na capacidade de processamento destas máquinas tem sido de tirar o fôlego.

Processadores, hard disks, memória e vários outros componentes provocaram saltos em capacidade enquanto diminuiam de preço.


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THREAT

Because of rapid change in the capability of components, it is possible for a PC manufacturer to build computers that will be obsolete before they can be sold.


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Ameaça

Por conta da rápida mudança na capacidade dos componentes, é possível que um fabricante construa computadores que estarão obsoletos no momento da venda.


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UNCERTAINTY

Computers may be sold more quickly than they can be produced.


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Incerteza

Computadores podem ser vendidos mais rapidamente do que podem ser produzidos.


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REVENUE

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

DELL

COMPAQ

HP


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Faturamento

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

DELL

COMPAQ

HP


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EARNINGS

-3000

-2000

-1000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

DELL

COMPAQ

HP


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Ganhos

-3000

-2000

-1000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

DELL

COMPAQ

HP


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RESULTS

Compaq was acquired by

Hewlett Packard in March of 2003.


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RESULTADOS

A Compaq foi comprada pela

Hewlett Packard em março de 2003.


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August 11, 2003

Dell announces results for its second quarter with revenues up 16% in a flat global market and earnings up 17.5%. Dell gained 2.6 market share points and grew operating income faster than revenue


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11 de agosto, 2003

A Dell anuncia os resultados de seu segundo trimestre com rendimentos de até 16% em um mercado global e ganhos de até 17,5%. A Dell ganhou 2.6 pontos no de participação no mercado e cresceu seu faturamento operacional mais rápido que seus rendimentos.


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August 19, 2003

Hewlett-Packard announced another in a long series of disappointing quarters with declining revenues and profits. HP CEO Carly Fiorina blamed the disappointments, in part, on “overly aggressive pricing actions.”


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19 de Agosto, 2003

Hewlett-Packard anunciou outro em uma série de trimestres

desapontantes, com redução no faturamento e lucros.

O CEO da HP - Carly Fiorina - disse que o desapontamento em parte é culpa de “ações superestimadas”


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August 20, 2003

Dell announced “price reductions on popular, small-to-medium business and consumer products by as much as 22 percent, extending its position as the industry’s value leader for computer systems and peripherals.”


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20 de Agosto, 2003

Dell anuncia a redução de até 22% no preço de seus produtos populares e para pequenas e médias empresas, ampliando sua posição como líder em valor para computadores e periféricos.


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ARM DEFINITION

Active Risk Management is a system for:– Identifying future events that are

important,– Evaluating their potential impact,– Planning our responses,– Taking action in advance when

appropriate,– Monitoring events that give us warning.


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ARM – Gerenciamento Ativo de Riscos

Active Risk Management é um sistema para:

– Identificar eventos futuros que são importantes;

– Avaliar seu impacto potencial; – Planejar suas respostas;– Tomar as ações antecipadamente, quando

apropriado;– Monitorar eventos e nos dar os avisos

necessários;


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RISK

Future events that may or may not occur that may have either positive and/or negative effects.

– Events that have positive effects are opportunities

– Events that have negative effects are threats

– Most events are both


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RISCOS

Eventos futuros que podem ou não ocorrer e podem gerar efeitos positivos ou negativos.

– Eventos com efeitos positivos são oportunidades.

– Eventos com efeitos negativos são ameaças.

– A grande maioria dos eventos são tanto ameaças como oportunidades!


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TOMORROW

• Techniques for identifying risks and for finding opportunities within threats. – Schedule uncertainty – merge bias exercise – Performance uncertainty – Cost uncertainty – Scope uncertainty and moving targets

• Techniques for separating small risks from significant risks.

• More about risk responses and choosing among them.

• Establishing project success criteria and measuring progress against those criteria


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2º Dia - Manhã

• Técnicas para identificar riscos e encontrar oportunidades em problemas:

- Incerteza em cronogramas; - Incerteza em performance; - Incerteza em custos; - Incerteza em escopo.

• Técnicas para classificar riscos (priorização) – Separação entre riscos significativos e insiginificates;

• Estabelecendo Critérios de Sucesso;

• Medindo Progresso x Critérios de Sucesso.

Business

Curso Ger. Riscos - Dia 01 / Parte 1