A Brewing Ground War in Europe

Ukraine EastAugust 17th, Rebellion Suppressed

Light Yellow= Areas Putin Calls ‘New Russia’Blue = Cities/Towns taken back from separatists (Red = Cities/Towns Controlled by Separatists (Russia) Orange = In ConflictPink = Area Where one is likely to run into Separatists on major roads

Good Job Ukrainian Army fighting and containing insurgents being armed with modern weaponry by PUTIN.

But wait, stability is not what Putin wants…..

Ukraine South-EastAugust 27th, Post Putin Invasion

Light Yellow= Areas Putin Calls ‘New Russia’Blue = Cities/Towns taken back from separatists (or, more likely now, Russian Soldiers)Red = Cities/Towns Controlled by Separatists (Russia) Orange = In ConflictPink = Area Where one is likely to run into Separatists on major roads

THE RUSSIAN ARMY CLEARLY INVADED ALONG THE BOARDER OF UKRAINE. ALL THE WAY TO THE SEA. THIS IS NOT A CIVIL WAR, IT IS AN INVASION.

We’ve Seen this before, Unfortunately

Putin Has a Trump Card, Energy

• Europe, including all EU members plus Turkey, Norway, Switzerland, and the non-EU Balkan states, consumed 18.7 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of natural gas in 2013.

• Russia supplied 30% (5.7 Tcf) of this volume, with a significant amount flowing through Ukraine.

• EIA estimates that 16% (3.0 Tcf) of the total natural gas consumed in Europe passed through Ukraine's pipeline network, based on data reported by Gazprom and Eastern Bloc Energy.

All the pipelines and fields are in East Ukraine or Crimea…

Putin’s Crazy Enough to stop the flow of Energy to Ukraine, if not the EU

• Natural gas flows through Ukraine vary by season, ranging from almost 12 billion cubic feet (Bcf) of natural gas per day in the winter to only 6 Bcf per day in the summer. In the past, as much as 80% of Russian natural gas exports to Europe transited Ukraine. This number has fallen to 50%-60% since the Nord Stream pipeline, a direct link between Russia and Germany under the Baltic Sea, came online in 2011

• But times have been good, recently: An unusually mild winter in 2013 meant reduced natural gas flows through Ukraine and contributed to higher levels of natural gas storage in Europe (natural gas storage levels were 46% full as of March 13, compared to 23% full in the United States).

The Relationship between Russian Oil Production and Ukrainian Oil Infrastructure

REQUIRES cooperation, not war• The 400,000 bbl/d southern leg of the Druzhba oil pipeline transports Russian crude

oil through Ukraine to supply most of the oil consumed by Slovakia, Hungary, Czech Republic, and Bosnia. In 2013, about 300,000 bbl/d of throughput transited the pipeline. Russian crude oil and petroleum products also transit Ukraine by rail for export out of Ukrainian ports. (source EIA)

• Port_of_Odessa#Oil_and_gas_terminal– By far the most valuable place in the Ukraine right now– Annual container volume: 523,881 TEUs– Employees = ~3,500 (2007)– 700,000 tonnes of liquefied natural gas [LNG] per year (.7

MTPA)– 800,000 tonnes of oil products per year (gasoline, vacuum

gas oil)– 2,500,000 tonnes of diesel oil per year – 6,200,000 tonnes of fuel oil per year

What Now?The Port is safe, but Ukraine is not

~400 Miles From BoarderAbsolutely no civil unrest yet

What Country Will Russia Invade Next?Conflicts sparked by Putin

Since 1999

Georgia (2008)

Ukraine East(2014-?)

Crimea(2014)

He’s blurred the lines purposely to prevent a

“red line”. But with the internet, we

can just put our glasses onNATO

NATO

NATO

NATO

NATO

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NATO

NATO

Chechenya(1999-2009)

Putin’s Crazy RationaleFrom: Igor Markov, a Googler

• Putin is rational within his own objectives and worldview, which look very different from the worldview of most other people with access to comprehensive information about what is going on. He is willing to suffer temporary setbacks (such as weaker economy) if he can achieve long-term strategic objectives, such as a viable Crimea as a part of Russia and a weak, divided Ukraine that can never join NATO.

• Intimidation and threats are common techniques employed by Russia (there's a deep tradition of such techniques among Russian organized crime). If you can force your victim to yield without doing something terrible, you can claim that the victim did it voluntarily. Otherwise, do what you threatened to do.

• Fear must be running high among the Russian leadership who know what is going on. Thousands of dead Russian soldiers have been transported back to Russia (according to fresh reports), and the Russian public is only starting to realize this. Some Russian industries (tourism, car manufacturing) are collapsing. Due to sanctions, Russian companies are cut from financing, and many will go bankrupt. Russian oil and gas industry is cut from offshore-drilling technologies. Many military projects are stopped or paused because they relied on key components from Ukraine - Russia has apparently gave up on the plans to build aircraft carriers (corrections anyone?).

• A majority of Russian nuclear missiles were made in Ukraine. Ukraine used to service them, but has now stopped doing that. If Russia has not broken service codes, the missiles will gradually become unreliable.

• The super-aggressive posture is what you'd expect from someone who is in the corner and is getting desperate.

Sanctions haven’t been totally worthless. Russia is about to be in a world of inflation.

• So, when are we going to do a 2nd round?

1st Round Sanctions Take Effect forEU, US & others

Unfortunately, Ukraine will suffer first. As in, right now. Hopefully less in the end

So we’ve been pulling all the money out of Russia Equity

• But it’s not really enough. $4 Billion / Month is a start. Time to CrowdFund some real supplies

• Please donate - http://wings-phoenix.org.ua/en