Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
I talked about using advanced time series methods to analyze cross channel advertising problems, like attribution analysis, cross channel budge allocation. I added an empirical study to analyze TV advertising and Search Advertising.
Citation preview
Cross Channel by
Zhou YuBusiness Analyst Efficient Frontier
Before Crossing Channels
Single Channel Efficient Frontier
ORGANIC
Natural Search
Cost
Revenue
Why Crossing Channels
• Interactive Effect• Attribution Analysis• Optimize budget across Channels
Cost
Revenue
TV Spend
SEM Spend
How to Cross Channels: SVAR Model (Package vars)
11 tt yy Auto Regression
Vector Auto RegressionInteractive Relation ttt YAY
1
SVAR: Contemporary Impact
12111 tttt xyxy
12112 tttt xyyx
),( ttt yxY 1211 ttt xyy
1211 ttt xyx
ttt YAY
1
2
1
1
1
An Empirical Study• TV Spending• SEM Spending, Clicks• Total Revenue
t
t
t
t
t
t
t
TV
SEM
REV
A
TV
SEM
REV
1
1
1
1321 tttt REVSEMTVREV
How they interact: Impulse Response Function
Time Period (Weeks) Time Period (Weeks)
Impulse of TV Impulse of Search
SEM
Spend
TV Spend
TV has an effect on search spend while search spend doesn’t have significant effect on TV.
Prediction
Incorporate two channels’ information to make prediction
Attribution Analysis: A little Math
SEMTVvenue ReGoal
Model1321
1211
tttt
ttt
REVSEMTVREV
SEMTVSEM
Results
SEMTV
SEMSEMTVTV
REVSEMTVSEMTVREV
tttt
tttttt
12321131
231211321 )(
Optimal Budget Allocation
ttttt
ttttt
SEMSEMTVTVREV
SEMSEMTVTVREV
231213111
12321131
12323212
11313111
1
)(
)()(
ttt
ttt
tt
SEMSEMSEM
TVTVTV
REVREVREV
131
tTV
REV232
tSEM
REV
Goal ?,
tt SEM
REV
TV
REV
Model
Results
TV Spend
SEM Spend
Cross Channels by
Thank You!Zhou Yu
Business Analyst Efficient Frontier
