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Buy Real Estate or Housing Stocks?February – April 2012www.chartprophetcapital .com
BBA Finance; BA History (summa cum laude)
Chartered Market Technician (CMT) Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) Candidate MBTI Certification for Behavioral Analysis and Personality Evaluation
Series 7: Securities Representative Series 66: Quantitative Methods Series 86: Research Analyst Qualification Life & Health Insurance License
Credentials
2www.chartprophetcapital .comTel 212.222.3221
500,000+ article views on Seeking Alpha Numerous Editor’s Picks, Most-Popular, Front Page articles Opinion Leader on Gold, Precious Metals, Commodities, Options,
Short Ideas, and Portfolio Strategy
Publicity Success
3www.chartprophetcapital .comTel 212.222.3221
TV spotlight appearances on CNN, ABC News and The Business News Network, BNN
Featured and quoted in:
Media Exposure
4www.chartprophetcapital .comTel 212.222.3221
5
Published Books
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• Our investments are based on big-picture themes and detailed analysis
6
Established Themes
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Most people attempting to profit from a housing recovery Buy homes and real estate Need time to search, more money for purchase, and maintenance Increase risk of poor location or market downturn
Housing Recovery Fund Requires considerably less time invested Free of maintenance costs Has potential for much higher returns Offers enormously increased liquidity Greatly reduces risk
Why Housing Stocks Are Better
7www.chartprophetcapital .comTel 212.222.3221
Recovery The crash in real estate from 2007-2009 brings opportunities Fear and avoidance of the housing sector has created value Stock market up 100 percent from 2009 bottom, while housing market
still near its lows, down 30+ percent. Buying opportunity? Double Dip
Is the worst behind us? What happens to home prices if we enter another recession? How can you protect the value of your home or real estate?
Housing Bubble: Recovery or Double-Dip?
8www.chartprophetcapital .comTel 212.222.3221
Housing Crash in Perspective
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Positive Recovering job market Low mortgage rates Highly-depreciated prices Increased affordability The Fed’s quantitative easing
programs aimed at boosting housing
Purchasing a home much more attractive at these levels
Positives vs Negatives
10www.chartprophetcapital .comTel 212.222.3221
Negative Huge inventory of foreclosed
homes Massive existing supply High unemployment High gas and food prices Difficulties in qualifying for a
mortgage Overall lack of confidence in the
housing market Weak consumer
So for those looking to bet on a housing recovery, what is the best way?
Whom does this apply to? Any real estate company Any home buyer Property owners Investors looking for protection or diversification Investors looking to profit from a housing recovery
How does the Housing Recovery Fund help? Protect the value of property you own Diversify your investing or retirement portfolio Profit from a recovery or housing outperformance
Housing Recovery Fund
11www.chartprophetcapital .comTel 212.222.3221
Buying Physical Real Estate Pros
It’s physical, tangible property Potential income from rent
Cons Large monetary outlays required Non-liquid investment Requires considerable input of time Extra costs for maintenance, property tax, and insurance Generally requires good credit Selection, location, and house risk
Physical Real Estate vs Housing Stocks
Option #1
12www.chartprophetcapital .comTel 212.222.3221
Investing in Homebuilder Stocks Pros
Low investment minimum required Highly-liquid investment Requires a lot less time No maintenance, property tax, or insurance costs No credit barriers or approval necessary Eliminates selection and location risk Allows for diversification Allows for protection and risk control Potential for much greater returns
Cons No rental income (but some dividends) May not mirror actual home price changes
Physical Real Estate vs Housing Stocks
Option #2
13www.chartprophetcapital .comTel 212.222.3221
Housing Stocks Have Much Greater Potential
14www.chartprophetcapital .comTel 212.222.3221
Investing in Homebuilders is a big opportunity Limited risk High liquidity Little or minimal time investment No extra costs Diversification Potential for exponentially higher returns
How to Play It Chart Prophet LLC is currently managing private accounts and a “Housing
Recovery Fund” that will create a basket of housing stocks from a select group of homebuilders, retailers, and housing-related companies.
We will then actively manage the fund in order to maximize profits from stock price fluctuations, and implement risk-protection through hedging and options strategies.
Our Housing Basket
15www.chartprophetcapital .comTel 212.222.3221
Triple-Perspective Outlook® Fundamental Technical Behavioral
Extensive and versatile investment mix Proprietary programmed timing strategy Pair trading Stop-Loss Portfolio feature We are prepared to profit during a falling market
Competitive Advantages
16www.chartprophetcapital .comTel 212.222.3221
Programmed Formula Technicals (price, moving averages, relative strength) Unusual activity (volume, money flows, momentum) Behavioral triggers
Avoided Dot-Com Bubble (1999-2001) and Housing/Financial Meltdown (2007-2009)
Works on most stocks, commodities, markets Both a timing tool and an investment-idea generator
Programmed Timing Strategy
17www.chartprophetcapital .comTel 212.222.3221
While the stock market underwent a “Lost Decade” of zero gains, our backtested strategy showed returns of between 599 and 915 percent, with over 80 percent winners and average annualized returns of over 50 percent.
Backtested Results
18www.chartprophetcapital .comTel 212.222.3221
Confirm through Triple-Perspective analysis Invest small portion initially Manage Risk: buy near support/away from resistance Allocate in accordance with market direction Maintain “buy list” and scale positions
Optimizing The Strategy
19www.chartprophetcapital .comTel 212.222.3221
Prime Broker Administration Banking Legal Accounting Design Retirement Accounts Research Platforms Research Distribution
Team
20www.chartprophetcapital .comTel 212.222.3221
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Accounting / Audit
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Executive Management
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Yoni Jacobs, CMTExecutive Director / Chief Investment Strategist
Elliot SchubinChief of Operations
Sean RoosChief Compliance Officer / Chief of Investor Relations
We are seeking $10 million for Q1 2012
We will invest the funds in: Homebuilders Retailers Housing-related companies
We will protect and hedge with: Options strategies Pair trades
We have strategies we can’t share
Investment Required
24www.chartprophetcapital .comTel 212.222.3221
Yoni Jacobs, Chief Investment Strategist Sean Roos, Chief of Investor Relations
(212)-222-3221(516)-313-7065
Contact
25www.chartprophetcapital .comTel 212.222.3221
There is no assurance that a portfolio will achieve its investment objective. While the Investment Management Company will attempt to moderate these risks, there can be no assurance that its investment activities will be successful or that investors will not suffer losses. Portfolios are subject to market risk, which is the possibility that market values of securities owned by the portfolio will decline and that the value of portfolio interests may therefore be less than what was paid for them. Accordingly, you can lose money investing in this portfolio.
Please be aware that our portfolios may be subject to certain additional risks. Investment in our funds is therefore suitable for sophisticated investors who are able to bear the loss of a substantial portion or even all of the money invested.
Before investing, please consider the investment objectives, risks, and fees associated with the fund, including but not limited to those discussed herein.
This strategy profile does not constitute an offer or solicitation in any state or jurisdiction. Any further distribution or reproduction of this strategy profile, in whole or in part, or the divulgence of any of its contents, is prohibited.
Nothing in this Article should be construed as a solicitation or offer, or recommendation, to acquire or dispose of any investment or to engage in any other transaction. Chart Prophet LLC does not render or offer to render personalized investment advice or service through the Article. Chart Prophet LLC’s specific advice is given only within the context of our contractual agreements with each client. The Article is limited to the dissemination of general information about Chart Prophet LLC’s service offerings, and provides an alternative method for prospective clients to learn more about Chart Prophet LLC, and contact Chart Prophet LLC. Advice may only be rendered after the delivery of the partnership agreement.
Risk Considerations & Disclaimers
26www.chartprophetcapital .comTel 212.222.3221