Country Hedging

The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness

and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its

recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.

Harvestland1/13/2012

Compiled by: Kurt Legred







Reuters Weekly CRB Index




Monthly Continuous Commodity Index







Baltic Dry Freight Index - weekly




Weekly Dry Ships Stock




Weekly U.S. Dollar Index




Monthly U.S. Dollar Index




Weekly Crude Oil Futures on CME




Monthly Crude Oil Futures on the CME




World Shipping Lanes







Corn Supply and Demand

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Planted Acres 80.2 77.4 79.6 75.8 78.9 78.6 80.9 81.8 78.3 93.6 86.0 86.4 88.2 91.9

Harvested Acres 72.6 70.5 72.4 68.8 69.3 70.9 73.6 75.1 70.6 86.5 78.6 79.5 81.4 84.0

Yield 134.4 133.8 136.9 138.2 129.3 142.2 160.4 148.0 149.1 151.1 153.9 164.7 152.8 147.2

Sept 1 Stocks 1,308 1,787 1,718 1,899 1,596 1,087 958 2,114 1,967 1,303 1,624 1,672 1,708 1,128

Production 9,759 9,431 9,915 9,507 8,967 10,089 11,807 11,114 10,535 13,074 12,092 13,092 12,447 12,358

Imports 19 15 7 10 14 14 11 9 12 18 14 10 28 15

Total Supply 11,086 11,233 11,640 11,416 10,577 11,190 12,776 13,237 12,514 14,395 13,730 14,774 14,183 13,501

Ethanol 3,026 3,677 4,568 5,021 5,000

Domestic Usage 7,318 7,577 7,805 7,931 7,898 8,335 8,848 9,122 9,086 10,336 10,199 11,079 11,220 11,0105

Exports 1,983 1,937 1,941 1,889 1,592 1,897 1,814 2,147 2,125 2,435 1,859 1,987 1,835 1,650

Total Usage 9,301 9,514 9,746 9,820 9,490 10,232 10,662 11,269 11,211 12,771 12,058 13,066 13,055 12,655

Carry-Out 1,785 1,719 1,894 1,596 1,087 958 2,114 1,968 1,303 1,624 1,672 1,708 1,128 846

Stocks/Use 19.2% 18.1% 19.4% 16.3% 11.5% 9.4% 19.8% 17.5% 11.6% 12.7% 13.9% 13.1% 8.6% 6.7%




U.S. Corn Supply/DemandJan 12 USDA Jan 12 USDA Jan. 1 CHI est.

2010/11 2011/12 2011/12Planted Acres 88.2 91.9 91.9Harvested Acres 81.4 84.0 83.9Yield 152.8 147.2 146.3

Beginning Stocks 1,708 1,128 1,128Production 12,447 12,358 12,277Imports 28 15 18

Total Supply 14,182 13,501 13,423

Feed/Residual 4,792 4,600 4,680F/S/I 6,428 6,405 6,419Domestic Use 11,220 11,005 11,099Ethanol for fuel 5,021 5,000 5,035Exports 1,835 1,650 1,627

Total Usage 13,054 12,655 12,726

Ending Stocks 1,128 846 697Stocks/Use Ratio 8.6% 6.7% 5.5%




Corn planted acres by county




Corn Planted Acres

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 201170.0

72.0

74.0

76.0

78.0

80.0

82.0

84.0

86.0

88.0

90.0

92.0

94.0

96.0

80.981.8

78.3

93.6

86.0 86.4

88.2

91.9




Corn Harvested Acres

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 201140

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

72.670.5

72.468.8 69.3 70.9

73.6 75.1

70.6

86.5

78.6 79.581.4

Mil

lio

n A

cres

84.0




Corn Yield Change: November to Final

Last year’s October yield cut was the 2nd largest on record.

0.8%1.2%

0.1%

-0.4%

2.8%

-0.3%-0.4%-0.3%

1.7%

-2.3%

0.1%

-0.2%

0.5%0.2%

1.1%

-0.5%-0.6%

0.1%

1.3%

-0.7%

0.1%

-0.3%

-1.4%-1.5%

0.1%

1.1%

-1.0%

0.3%

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%




Corn Yield

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

134.4 133.8136.9 138.2

129.3

142.2

160.4

148.0149.1

151.1153.9

164.7

152.8

147.2

Bu

shel

s p

er A

cre




Corn Production

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

14,000

15,000

16,000

9,7599,431

9,9159,507

8,967

10,089

11,807

11,11410,535

13,074

12,092

13,092

12,447 12.348




Corn Exports

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20111,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

2,400

2,600

1,9831,937 1,941

1,889

1,592

1,8971,814

2,147 2,125

2,435

1,859

1,987

1,835

1,650




Domestic Use

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20111,000

3,000

5,000

7,000

9,000

11,000

13,000

7,318 7,577 7,805 7,931 7,8988,335

8,848 9,122 9,086

10,336 10,199

11,079 11,220 11,005

1,983 1,937 1,941 1,889 1,592 1,897 1,814 2,147 2,125 2,4351,859 1,987 1,835 1,650

Domestic Use

Exports

Mill

ion

Bu

sh

els




Corn Ground for Ethanol

02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-120

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

9961167

1323

1603

2117

3026

3677

4568

5021 5000

Year

Mil

lio

n B

ush

els




Feed and Residual 1.390bb less than 2007

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

5,4725,664

5,838 5,8775,558

5,798

6,162 6,141

5,600

5,999

5,246 5,140

4,7924,600




Feed vs FSI

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

5,472 5,664 5,838 5,8775,558

5,7986,162 6,141

5,6005,999

5,24

6

5,140

4,7924,600

1,846 1,913 1,967 2,0542,340

2,5372,686

2,981

3,486

4,337

4,953

5,939

6,428 6,410

Feed F/S/I




Corn F,S, I

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

1,846 1,913 1,967 2,0542,340

2,537 2,6862,981

3,486

4,337

4,953

5,939

6,430 6,405




Ending Stocks

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

1,7851,719

1,894

1,596

1,087

958

2,114

1,968

1,303

1,624 1,672 1,708

1,128

848




Stocks/Use ratio1995 was at 4.98%

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

19.2%18.1%

19.4%

16.3%

11.5%

9.4%

19.8%

17.5%

11.6%12.7%

13.9%13.1%

8.6%

6.7%




Carryout vs Average Farm Price

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011500

700

900

1,100

1,300

1,500

1,700

1,900

2,100

2,300

$0.00

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00

$7.00

$8.00

1,7851,719

1,894

1,596

1,087

958

2,114

1,968

1,303

1,624 1,672 1,708

1,128

8431.94 1.93 1.83 1.93

2.32 2.422.06 1.98

3.04

4.20 4.06

3.55

5.18

6.70

Carry-Out Avg. Farm Price




World Corn Prod and Ending Stocks

1998/99

1999/00

2000/01

2001/02

2002/03

2003/04

2004/05

2005/06

2006/07

2007/08

2008/09

2009/10

2010/11

2011/12

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

605.31 606.72 588.26599.349999999999600.99 623

712.270000000001696.859999999998711.05

792.44 798.82 819.61 828.69868.06

121.93171.5 153.91 129.75 122.25 130.51

103.61 125.11 108.74 129.86 149.07 144.05 129.04 121.57

Production

End. Stox

Year

Mil

lio

n t

on

s




29.9%28.6%

31.8%

25.4%

28.6%

24.8%

29.6%29.0%

32.9%32.0%

28.7%

24.2%

20.2%

16.2%

19.1%17.7%

15.1%17.0%

18.8%17.5%

15.2%14.8%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

World Corn Stocks-to-Use Ratio

World production higher on the U.S. production increase. Foreign production down slightly. Argentina down 3 mmt, and Ukraine up 1.5. World import demand raised. Chinese imports were raised 1 mmt to 4 mmt. The stocks-to-use ratio went from 14.6% last month to 14.8% this month.




China Corn Production and Imports

97-98 98-99 99-00 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-120.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

160.0

180.0

200.0

104.3

133.0 128.0

106.0 114.0 121.3 115.8

130.3 139.4

151.6 152.3

165.9 164.0 177.3

191.75

0 0 0 0 0 0.1 0 0 0.05 1.3 0.98 4.0

Year

Mil

lio

n T

on

nes




Argentina Corn Prod and Exports

97-98 98-99 99-00 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-120.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

19.4

13.5

17.2 15.4 14.7 15.5 15.0

20.5

15.8

22.5 22.0

15.5

23.3 22.5

26.0

11.7

7.9

12.0 9.7

10.8 11.2 10.9

14.6

9.5

15.3 14.8

10.3

16.5 15.0

18.5

Year

Mil

lio

n

To

nn

es




Brazil Corn Production and Exports

97-98 98-99 99-00 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-120.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

30.1 32.4 31.6

41.5

35.5

47.6

42.8

35.0

41.7

51.0

58.6

51.0

56.1 57.5 61.0

0.0 0.0 0.4

6.5

1.9 5.2 4.1

0.7 4.5

10.8 7.8 7.1

11.6 9.0 8.5

Year

Mil

lio

n T

on

nes




Mexico Production and Imports

04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-120.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

22.05

19.50

22.35 23.60

24.23

20.37 21.13

20.50

5.95 6.79

8.94 9.56

7.76 8.30 8.00

9.80




South Korea Production and Imports

04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-120.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

10.00

8.63 8.49 8.74

9.31

7.19

8.46 8.11 8.00




Japan Imports

04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-1215.00

15.20

15.40

15.60

15.80

16.00

16.20

16.40

16.60

16.80

16.49

16.62 16.71

16.61 16.53

15.98

15.66

16.10







200

700

1200

1700

2200

2700

Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug

mill

ion

bush

els

2007/08

2008/09

2009/10

2010/11

2011/12

U.S. Corn Export Commitments

Export commitments are 6.6% behind last year.







-$0.20

-$0.10

$0.00

$0.10

$0.20

$0.30

$0.40

$0.50

$0.60

$0.70

Gross Ethanol Margins per GallonEastern Corn Belt

Monthly averages:

September $.25

October $.41

November $.51

December $.01




Weekly production jumped up this past week.39.65

31.00

32.00

33.00

34.00

35.00

36.00

37.00

38.00

39.00

40.00

41.00

mill

ion

gallo

ns/d

ayWeekly Ethanol Production




9961,168

1,3231,603

2,119

3,049

3,709

4,568

5,021 5,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

20

02

/03

20

03

/4

20

04

/05

20

05

/06

20

06

/07

20

07

/08

20

08

/09

20

09

/10

20

10

/11

20

11

/12

millio

n b

us

he

ls

corn marketing year

corn needed to meet renewable biofuel portion of RFS

corn for ethanol

Corn Used for Ethanol

The USDA is estimating corn use for ethanol will decline this marketing year despite an increase in usage during the first quarter.




-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35% Year-on-Year Change in Monthly Ethanol ProductionUSDA Mktg. Yr. Change in Corn Usage

% Change: Ethanol Production

Ethanol production for December looks like it will be up about 5% from last December.




-$1.00

-$0.80

-$0.60

-$0.40

-$0.20

$0.00

$0.20

$0.40

Ethanol-RBOB Gasoline

Ethanol premium to gasoline

Ethanol discount to gasoline

Ethanol blending margins are strong following the loss of the tax credit.




0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

mill

ion

gallo

nsU.S. Monthly Ethanol Exports

November data will be published on January 13.




U.S. Monthly DDG Exports

DDG export in October were off 22% from the previous Oct.

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

tmt




-100,000

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

Non-Comm.

Index

Net Fund Positions-CBOT CornCIT Report - Futures and Options Combined




-100,000

-50,000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Non-Comm. Corn Net Position-AnnualCIT Report - Futures and Options Combined




-800,000

-700,000

-600,000

-500,000

-400,000

-300,000

-200,000

-100,000

0


2007

2008

2009

2010

Commercial Corn Net Position-Annual CIT Report - Futures and Options Combined




March 2012 CME Corn Futures




July 2012 CME Corn Futures




December 2012 CME Corn Futures




CME Continuous Monthly Corn Futures







U.S. Soybean Supply/DemandJan. 12 USDA Jan. 12 USDA Jan. 1 CHI est.

2010/11 2011/12 2011/12Planted Acres 77.4 75.0 75.0Harvested Acres 76.6 73.6 73.7Yield 43.5 41.5 41.5

Beginning Stocks 151 215 215Production 3,329 3,056 3,057Imports 14 15 13

Total Supply 3,495 3,285 3,285

Crush 1,648 1,615 1,635Exports 1,501 1,275 1,274Seed 87 88 88Residual 43 32 27

Total Usage 3,280 3,010 3,024

Ending Stocks 215 275 260Stocks/Use Ratio 6.6% 9.1% 8.6%







Soybeans Planted by County




Soybean Supply and Demand

94-95 95-96 96-97 97-98 98-99 99-00 00-01 01--02 02--03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12

Planted Acres 61.7 62.6 64.2 70 72 73.7 74.3 74.1 73.9 73.4 75.2 72 75.5 64.7 75.7 77.5 77.4 75

Harvested Acres 60.8 61.5 63.3 69.1 70.4 72.4 72.4 73 72.5 72.5 74 71.3 74.6 64.1 74.7 76.4 76.6 73.7

Yield 41.4 35.3 37.6 38.9 38.9 36.6 38.1 39.6 38 33.9 42.2 43 42.7 41.7 39.7 44 43.5 41.5

Sept 1 Stocks 209 335 183 132 200 348 290 248 208 178 112 256 449 573 206 138 151 215

Production 2,729 2,174 2,380 2,689 2,741 2,654 2,758 2,891 2,756 2,454 3,124 3,063 3,188 2,676 2,967 3,359 3,329 3,056

Imports 5 4 9 5 4 4 4 2 5 6 6 3 9 10 12 15 14 15

Total Supply 2,943 2,513 2,572 2,826 2,945 3,006 3,052 3,141 2,969 2,638 3,242 3,322 3,646 3,260 3,185 3,512 3,495 3,286

Crush 1,403 1,370 1,434 1,595 1,592 1,579 1,641 1,700 1,615 1,530 1,696 1,739 1,806 1,801 1,662 1,752 1,648 1,615

Exports 861 847 885 898 851 973 1,000 1,063 1,045 885 1,103 947 1,118 1,161 1,283 1,501 1,501 1,275

Seed/Feed 88 91 92 93 93 90 91 89 89 92 88 93 78 93 90 90 87 88

Residual 37 18 29 35 57 74 73 82 41 19 99 95 71 -1 12 18 44 32

Total Usage 2,389 2,326 2,440 2,621 2,593 2,716 2,805 2,934 2,790 2,526 2,986 2,874 3,073 3,054 3,047 3,361 3,280 3,011

Carry-Out 554 187 132 205 352 290 247 207 179 112 256 448 573 206 138 151 215 275




U.S. Soybean Production

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

1,861

2,099

1,9431,938

1,549

1,9241,9261,987

2,190

1,870

2,515

2,174

2,380

2,6892,7412,654

2,7582,891

2,756

2,454

3,1243,0633,188

2,676

2,967

3,3593,329

3,056




U.S. Soybean Yield

1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 201125

30

35

40

45

28.1

34.133.3

33.9

27.0

32.334.1

34.3

37.6

32.6

41.4

35.3

37.6

38.9 38.9

36.6

38.139.6

38.0

33.9

42.243.0 42.7

41.7

39.7

44.043.5

41.5




Soybean Yield Change: November to Final

4th biggest percentage decline in 2011, and the biggest since 1995.

-1.4%

-0.3%

-1.5%

-0.6%

1.5%

-1.5%

1.2%

2.1%

0.8%

-0.3%-0.2%-0.3%

-0.8%-0.8%

0.8%

-0.3%

0.3%0.5%

1.3%

0.3%

-0.9%

0.9%

-0.2%

1.0%0.8%

1.6%

-0.9%

0.5%

-2.0%

-1.5%

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%




0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug

mill

ion

bush

els

2007/08 2008/092009/10 2010/112011/12

U.S. Bean Export Commitments

Export commitments are 31% behind last year.




Soybean-Exports vs Domestic Use

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

847 885 898 851973 1,000

1,063 1,045

885

1,103

947

1,118 1,1611,283

1,501 1,501

1,275

1,4791,555

1,723 1,742 1,7431,805

1,8711,745

1,641

1,883 1,927 1,9551,893

1,7641,860

1,779 1,735

Exports

Domestic Use




Crush

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

1,3701,434

1,595 1,592 1,5791,641

1,7001,615

1,530

1,6961,739

1,806 1,801

1,6621,752

1,648 1,615

Year

Mill

ion

bu

sh

els




U.S. Soybean Ending Stocks

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

187

132

205

352

290247

207179

112

256

448

573

206

138 151

215275




U.S. Soybeans Stocks/Use Ratio

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

8%

5%

8%

14%

11%

9%

7%6%

4%

9%

16%

19%

7%

5% 4%

7% 6%




Soybeans-Carryout vs Average farm Price19

90

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

$0.00

$2.00

$4.00

$6.00

$8.00

$10.00

$12.00

$14.00

$16.00Carryoutave farm price

year

mil

lio

n b

ush

els

pri

ce




15.6%

22.7%

20.3%20.7%20.0%

21.0%20.8%

18.1%18.9%

15.8%

19.0%

14.4%

11.9%

19.0%18.4%

19.0%19.6%19.3%

22.4%

20.0%

23.7%24.7%

27.5%

22.4%

19.3%

25.0%

27.3%

24.5%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

22%

24%

26%

28%

30%

World Soybean Stocks-to-Use Ratio

World stocks decline slightly following smaller production estimates. Stocks-to-use ratio went from 24.8% to 24.5%.




World Beans Prod. and Ending Stocks

1997/98

1998/99

1999/00

2000/01

2001/02

2002/03

2003/04

2004/05

2005/06

2006/07

2007/08

2008/09

2009/10

2010/11

2011/12

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

158.02 159.81 159.88175.1

184.87197.31

186.75

215.72 220.54237.54

221.21211.96

260.85 264.18 257.00

21.64 26.66 27.02 30.9 32.14 39.72 35.6648.36 53.35

62.6952.89

42.5859.41

68.37 63.43

Production

End. Stox

Year

Mil

lio

n t

on

s




Brazil Soy Production and exports

97-98 98-99 99-00 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-120.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

80.00

32.50 31.3034.20

39.0043.50

52.50 51.00 53.00

57.00 59.0061.00 57.80

69.00

75.50 74.0

8.80 8.90 9.3012.30

15.0020.40 19.80 20.14

25.9123.49 25.36

29.99 28.58 29.55

39.00

Year

Mil

lio

n T

on

nes




Argentina Soy Production and exports

97-98 98-99 99-00 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-120.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

18.70 20.00 20.20

27.80 30.00

35.5033.00

39.00 40.50

48.8046.20

32.00

54.50

49.0050.50

3.20 3.20 3.505.50 6.00

8.706.70

9.577.25

9.5613.84

5.59

13.099.21 9.8

Year

Mil

lio

n t

on

nes




China Bean Production and Imports

97-98 98-99 99-00 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-120.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

14.73 15.15 14.29 15.40 15.41 16.5115.39

17.40 16.35 15.9714.00 15.54 14.98 15.10 13.50

2.94 3.86

10.1113.25

10.39

21.4216.93

25.80 28.3228.73

37.8241.10

50.34

52.34 56.50

Year

Mil

lio

n T

on

nes




0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

mm

tMonthly Chinese Soybean Imports

Imports for the first three months of the marketing year (Oct.-Dec.)are 2% ahead of the first three months of 2010/11.




March 2012 Soybean Futures




November 2012 CME Soybean Futures




Export Commitments: % of Final

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%2011/12

2003-2011 average

Average based on final FAS totals; 2011/12 based on January WASDE estimate

Commitments are in-line with the new USDA estimate of 1,275 mb.




0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

mm

tMonthly Chinese Soybean Imports

Imports for the first three months of the marketing year (Oct.-Dec.)are 2% ahead of the first three months of 2010/11.




100

110

120

130

140

150

160

1702008

2009

2010

2011

NOPA Crush

Adjusted since April 2011 for membership change




$0.20

$0.30

$0.40

$0.50

$0.60

$0.70

$0.80

$0.90

$1.00

$1.10

$1.20

CME Nearby Soybean Crush

Monthly averages:

August $.33

September $.34

October $.40

November $48

December $.47




New-Crop Soybean/Corn Ratio

1.8

1.9

2

2.1

2.2

2.3

2.4

October November December January February March

2011

2012

2007-2011 avg




25

27

29

31

33

35

37

39

mill

ion

acre

sCRP Enrollment

National CRP enrollment will decline about 1.6 million acres for 2012




2012 CRP Enrollment ChangeTop 10 Changes by State as of November Update

-400 -350 -300 -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0

MONTANA

NORTH DAKOTA

KANSAS

TEXAS

MINNESOTA

MISSOURI

NEBRASKA

SOUTH DAKOTA

COLORADO

ALABAMA

thousand acres




-50,000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000Non-Comm.

Index

Net Fund Positions-CME SoybeansCIT Report - Futures and Options Combined




-50,000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000


2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Non-Comm. Soybeans Net Position-AnnualCIT Report - Futures and Options Combined




Commercial Soybean Net Position-Annual CIT Report - Futures and Options Combined

-350,000

-300,000

-250,000

-200,000

-150,000

-100,000

-50,000

0Ja

n

Jan

Jan

Feb

Feb

Mar

Mar

Apr

Apr

May

May Jun

Jun

Jul

Jul

Aug

Aug

Aug

Sep

Sep

Oct

Oct

Nov

Nov

Dec

Dec

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012




<$9.80

$9.80-$11.13

$11.13-$12.51

$12.51-$13.84

>$13.84

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

prob

abili

ty

3 Month Price ForecastApril2012 Average Nearby CME Soybean Price

Key assumptions:• The majority of any benefit to

production losses this season in South America would occur next fall.

• Bean/corn ratio <2

Central forecast:$11.82













Upcoming or just past USDA reports – 2012

• Jan 12 --- Crop Production, Annual Crop Production Summary, Winter Wheat seeding, Dec 1 Grain stocks

• Feb 9 --- Crop Production• March 9 --- Crop Production• March 30 --- Prospective 2012 Planting, March 1 Grain Stocks• April 10 --- Crop Production

Business

Country Hedging