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MCX DAILY LEVELS✍
DAILY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4
ALUMINIUM 29-DEC-2017 137.50 135.50 133.50 132.50 131.50 130.50 129.50 127.50 125.50
COPPER 28- FEB-2018 470 461 452 448.90 443 439 434 428 416
CRUDE OIL 19-JAN-2018 3775 3739 3703 3690 3667 3650 3631 3595 3559
GOLD 05-FEB -2018 28868 28674 28480 28367 28280 28173 28090 27900 27700
LEAD 29-DEC-2017 171.20 167.90 164.70 163.40 161.50 160.10 158.20 154.90 151.70
NATURAL GAS 26-DEC-2017 198 188 179 173 169 163 159 149 139
NICKEL 29-DEC-2017 816 788 760 749 732 721 704 676 648
SILVER 05-MAR-2018 38455 38027 37599 37402 37171 36974 36743 36315 35887
ZINC 29-DEC-2017 214.90 277.75 208.50 206.90 205.20 203.75 202.15 198.90 195.70
Monday 18 December 2017
MCX WEEKLY LEVELS✍
WEEKLY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4
ALUMINIUM 29-DEC-2017 142.80 138.80 134.80 133.20 130.80 129.30 126.80 122.80 118.80
COPPER 28- FEB-2018 502.80 481.50 460.20 453.20 438.90 431.70 417.60 396.30 375
CRUDE OIL 19-JAN-2018 4213 4036 3859 3764 3684 3587 3505 3328 3151
GOLD 05-FEB -2018 29720 29240 28761 28500 28280 20827 27800 27320 26840
LEAD 29-DEC-2017 177.90 172.90 166.60 164.3 161 158.70 155.30 149.70 144
NATURAL GAS 26-DEC-2017 226 208 190 178 171 160 153 135 117
NICKEL 29-DEC-2017 862 817 772 755 727 710 682 637 592
SILVER 05-MAR-2018 39769 38892 38017 37611 37141 36735 36265 35389 34513
ZINC 29-DEC-2017 228.80 220.40 212 208.70 203.62 200.20 195.20 186.80 178.40
FOREX DAILY LEVELS✍
DAILY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4
USDINR 27-DEC-17 66.0400 65.45
00
64.900
0
64.550
0
64.300
0
63.950
0
63.700
0
63.150
0
62.5600
EURINR 27-DEC-17 78.1050 77.35
00
76.650
0
76.250
0
75.900
0
75.500
0
75.150
0
74.450
0
73.6950
GBPINR 27-DEC-17 88.7150 87.90
00
87.100
0
86.600
0
86.300
0
85.800
0
85.500
0
84.700
0
83.8850
JPYINR 27-DEC-17 58.7850 58.25
00
57.700
0
57.500
0
57.150
0
56.950
0
56.600
0
56.050
0
55.5150
FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS✍
WEEKLY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4
USDINR 27-DEC-17 65.0500 64.8000 64.5500 64.5500 64.30
00
64.300
0
64.050
0
63.800
0
63.55
00
EURINR 27-DEC-17 77.4250 76.9000 76.4000 76.1500 75.85
00
75.600
0
75.350
0
74.800
0
74.27
50
GBPINR 27-DEC-17 87.3850 87.0000 86.6000 86.3500 86.20
00
85.950
0
85.800
0
85.400
0
85.01
50
JPYINR 27-DEC-17 57.9575 57.7000 57.4500 57.3000 57.20
00
57.050
0
56.950
0
56.700
0
56.44
25
MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
✍ BULLION
Gold prices clung to earlier gains and were poised for their first weekly gain in four weeks on Friday,
withstanding pressure from strong equities markets on continued support from this week's interest rate rise
by the Federal Reserve. Higher interest rates usually push gold lower because they raise bond yields,
reducing the appeal of non-yielding bullion, and boost the dollar, making gold more expensive for holders
of other currencies. But markets had priced in Wednesday's rise and the dollar and bond yields fell after the
Fed kept its outlook for three rate rises next year unchanged and said proposed U.S. tax cuts would not
significantly spur growth. U.S. inflation remained weak, which Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said
on Friday undermined the case for rate rises. The dollar recouped some losses as Republican senators
worked to resolve disagreements on the tax reform. Major stock indexes hit record highs.
✍ BASE METAL
Among base metals complex, LME Nickel prices traded higher on Monday after the Chinese government
slashed the export duties over some steel products which would in return increase demand for the metal.
China will cut export taxes on some steel products and fertilisers and ditch those for sales abroad of steel
wire, rod and bars from Jan. 1, the Ministry of Finance said on Friday. Recently, INSG report showed the
widening of deficit in global nickel market to 65,700 tonnes in the first nine months of the year, from
47,400 tonnes, in the same period of 2016. As per CFTC, Hedge funds and money managers cut their net
long position in COMEX copper contracts in the week to Dec. 12. However in Zinc due to ample
availability of supply spread between cash & 3 month forward contract has fallen to zero from above
$90/ton in October which was the highest since Dec 2006. Aluminum was getting a second boost from
separate China data showing production for November slumped to 2.35 million tonnes, which was down
7.7 percent from October and the lowest absolute level since February this year. Copper prices scaled three-
week highs on Friday after the New York open and as expectations of strong demand in top consumer China
were reinforced by data showing firm industrial activity. Traders said rising stock market indices on Wall
Street had boosted sentiment and sparked a wave of buying on industrial metals markets
ENERGY✍
Crude oil prices hovered near to Friday’s levels as lack of new price driver casts the shadow over the prices.
On Friday, baker Hughes showed the decline in US active rig by 4 to 747 for the first time in six weeks. In
the major development in OPEC nations, Nigeria’s PENGASSAN union has threatened to go on strike from
Monday after talks aimed at resolving a dispute with domestic oil and gas companies reached a deadlock. In
Nigeria, Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN), which mainly
works in the upstream oil industry, is clashing with the companies over the laying off of union members.
And has threatened os Saturday to go on strike from Monday. Separately, Forties pipeline pipeline, which
carries about a one fourth of all North Sea crude output and about one third of Britain's offshore gas
production, has been closed since last week, following the discovery of a small crack in part of the system
onshore in Scotland. As per CFTC data, the speculator group cut its combined futures and options position
in New York and London by 7,542 contracts to 435,200 during the period. The group cut its gross long
positions to 435,764 from 439,751. The group cut its short positions to 44,890 from 47,320.
NG prices remained negative on Friday as prices went lower around 2.68% in International markets and
went down by 3.3% at its closing in MCX futures market. As per CFTC, U.S. gas speculators cut their net
long positions to the least since August 2016 on expectations supplies will be adequate this winter with
storage near normal levels, output at record highs and warmer than seasonal winter forecasts.
MCX TECHNICAL VIEW
✍ LEAD
MCX LEAD has forming head & shoulder pattern breakout which suggests positive trend for the short term.
Above the level of 163.30 Price expected to provide fuel to the rally going ahead. Daily RSI (14) has given a
trendline breakout which indicates change in momentum. Daily MACD has entered in a bullish crossover.
Based on the above analysis, we expect a smart rally in the MCX LEAD price over the short period of time.
BUY LEAD DEC ABOVE 163.30 TGT 163.30 SL 161.5
✍ SILVER
MCX Silver price has closed in the green at the end of last trading session. Comex Silver has closed in the
green for the third consecutive sessions. In addition, Comex Silver price has moved back above $16 mark. On
the daily chart of Comex Silver, momentum indicator RSI (14) is seen to have reversed from the oversold zone
and currently in a bullish crossover. MACD is in bullish crossover. Based on the above technical set up and
indicators, we expect a pullback in MCX Silver price.
BUY SILVER MAR ABOVE 37500 TGT 38000 SL 37200
NCDEX DAILY LEVELS✍
DAILY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4
SYOREFIDR 19-JAN-2018 745.70 739.70 733.80 731.50 727.80 725.60 721.80 715.80 709.80
SYBEANIDR 19-JAN-2018 3170 3126 3082 3065 3038 3021 2994 2950 2906
RMSEED 19-JAN-2018 4107 4058 4009 3991 3960 3940 3911 3862 3813
JEERAUNJHA 19-JAN-2018 22670 22260 21850 21650 21440 21240 21030 20620 20210
GUARSEED10 19-JAN-2018 4013 3961 3909 3888 3857 3837 3805 3753 3701
TMC 20-APR-2018 8021 7841 7661 7562 7480 7382 7301 7121 6941
NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS✍
WEEKLY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4
SYOREFIDR 19-JAN-2018 754.60 745.70 736.70 733 727.50 724.20 718.80 709.90 700.90
SYBEANIDR 19-JAN-2018 3440 3314 3188 3118 3059 2992 2936 2810 2684
RMSEED 19-JAN-2018 4304 4196 4088 4030 3980 3922 3872 3764 3656
JEERAUNJH
A
19-JAN-2018 24300 23380 22460 21950 21540 21035 20620 19700 18780
GUARSEED10 19-JAN-2018 4275 4134 3992 3931 3850 3789 3709 3568 3426
TMC 20-APR-2018 8328 8034 7740 7602 7440 7308 7152 6858 6564
NCDEX - WEEKLY MARKET REVIEW
✍ SPICE COMPLEX
NCDEX Jan Jeera falls for the second consecutive day on Friday as market participants initiated fresh selling.
For the December contract NCDEX reported record deliveries allocations of 3,633 tonnes on exchange platform
in first three days of staggered delivery period. The market is also cautious after it touched all time higher this
month. Moreover, good progress of jeera sowing in Gujarat also pressurizes prices. In Gujarat, jeera acreage up
by 37.4% to 3.1 lakh ha this year compared to 2.3 lakh ha last year as on 11th Dec. As per government data, Jeera
exports during first six month of FY 2017/18 (Apr-Sep) is 77,827 tonnes, up 8.4% compared to last year exports
volume for the same period. India's jeera exports in Sep increase 110% on year to 14,742 tn. Jeera arrivals for the
first 15 days of Dec down by 50% to 1,985 tonnes on year due to tight supplies and lower stocks.Turmeric Apr
contract closed lower on Friday due to fresh selling but prices improved on week due to firm physical demand
and expectation of improved up-country demand from the new season. The supplies have improved during last
one month due to government auctions and lower exports data. The export of turmeric is down by 15.2% to
56,900 tonnes for the first 6 month of FY 2017/18 compared to last years’ exports. The arrivals have been higher
during first 15 days in December this year to 13,033 tonnes compared to 5,820 tonnes last year same month
according to Agmarknet data.
✍ OILSEED COMPLEX
Mustard Jan futures closed higher on Friday but 1% down on week. Currently the prices looking move according
to the winter demand but reports of higher inventories with the traders and farmers keep pressure on prices.
According to MOPA, mustard stock with Farmers & Processors as on 30th Nov’17 was at 13 lakh tonnes. Mills
across the country crushed 475,000 tn of the oilseed in November, up nearly 6% on month. The acreage of
mustard was down 7% till last week at 61 lakh ha, as per latest rabi sowing report by the government. Rajasthan
is the largest mustard growing state but the sowing pace is slower than last year at 20.6 lakh ha Vs 27.7 lakh
ha.NCDEX Soybean futures closed higher on Friday on fresh buying by the market participants on lower level
buying and anticipation of improved demand but down for the week on higher stocks with the mills. The arrivals
have been lower in first half of December compared to previous 15 days. As per, Agmarknet, 3.72 lakh tonnes of
soybean arrived in physical market in December against close to 5 last year for the same time period. Moreover,
in the second half of October about 7.41 lakh tonnes arrived in the market. SOPA increased its meal exports
estimates for 2017/18 as government has increased export incentives by 2% to for all meals. According to SOPA,
Soymeal exports from the country in 2017-18 (Oct-Sep) are seen rising to around 20 lakh tn from previous
estimate of 15 lakh tn due to a recent rise in export incentives. US Soybean futures closed lower on Friday
supported by forecasts of rain in Argentina and higher production forecast in 2018. There is expectation for
rain this weekend in dry areas of Argentina, the world's top soymeal exporter. The 2017/18 Brazilian
soybean crop is now estimated at 109.1 mt, which is up from the 107.5 mt estimated in November. US
soybean planted acreage for 2018 is expected to hit 91.4 million acres, according to Informa analysts.
✍ OTHER COMPLEX
Chana Jan futures jumped higher on Friday on short covering on reports of higher stocks and improved
sowing progress. As per government data, India imported about 4.78 lakh tonnes of chana during April-Sep,
up by 430% compared the last year imports. As per government sowing data, area under the chana crop
across the country was up 13.7% on year at 96.23 lakh ha as on last week. Area under Chana exceeds 90
lakh ha for the second consecutive year. Last year area was close to 99 lakh ha. MP, Maharashtra, Rajasthan
and Karnataka exceed normal sowing area this season. The NCDEX have imposed a special margin of 5%
on the sell side to support falling prices.
MCX Dec Cotton rises 2.76% on week tracking lower arrivals and expectation of fall in domestic output
due to pink bollworm attacks in some states. Moreover, higher bonus in Gujarat and increase in
consumption by the mills is also supporting prices. As per Cotton Advisory Board, demand from textile
mills is likely to be 315 lakh bales this season as against 288.86 lakh bales last season, while exports might
go up to 67 lakh bales as against 58.21 lakh bales last season. According to industry sources, cotton exports
to Pakistan might be higher this year. ICE cotton rose on Friday boosted by technical buying, as the March
contract touched an all-time high and notched an eighth consecutive weekly gain. USDA monthly crop
supply and demand report was bullish it raised its U.S. cotton production forecast for 2017-18 by 63,000
bales and exports estimates by 300,000 bales compared with its outlook last month, and projecting ending
stocks at 5.8 million bales as against 6.1 million bales seen in November.
NCDEX TECHNICAL VIEW
GUARSEED10 ✍
Market is continuously making higher lows forming ascending triangle formation indicating positive
movement in upcoming session. It is facing important resistance level at Rs.3913 above the level we believe
that market can touch the level of Rs.3980 & Rs.4000. Traders can follow the buy on dips strategy. Momentum
still positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover buy signal.
The MACD histogram is printing in the black with an upward sloping trajectory which points to higher prices
for the GUARSEED.
BUY GUARSEED10 JAN ABOVE 3913 TGT 4000 SL 3860
SYOREF✍
Refined Soy Oil Jan contract jumped higher tracking higher spot prices. However, the prices have been traded
sideways during last week due to higher stocks due to improved domestic crushing and higher imports in
November. For the second half of December, government further cut the base import price of soy oil, by $20
per tonnes. According to data released by the Solvent Extractors' Association, India vegetable oil imports rose
around 6% on year to 12.5 lakh tonnes in November. Soyoil imports surged by 66.7% in November to 2.74 lt
compared to 1.64 lt last year.
BUY SYOREF JAN ABOVE 730 TGT 740 SL 725
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