Commodity report 07 april 2014

FOR PERIOD:07th APRIL 2014 TO 12th APRIL 2014

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WEEKLY COMMODITY REPORT

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IMPORTANT ECONOMIC EVENT OF THE WEEK

DateDate CurrencyCurrency EventEvent ForecastForecast PreviousPrevious

Apr 7 EUR German Industrial Production m/m 0.3% 0.8%

Mon EUR Sentix Investor Confidence 14.1 13.9

USD Consumer Credit m/m 14.1B 13.7B

Apr 8 EUR French Gov Budget Balance -12.7B

Tue EUR French Trade Balance -4.9B -5.7B

USD NFIB Small Business Index 92.3 91.4

USD JOLTS Job Openings 3.99M 3.97M

USD FOMC Member Kocherlakota Speaks

USD FOMC Member Plosser Speaks

Apr 9 EUR German Trade Balance 18.0B 17.2B

Wed USD Wholesale Inventories m/m 0.5% 0.6%

USD Crude Oil Inventories -2.4M

USD 10-y Bond Auction 2.73|2.9

USD FOMC Meeting Minutes

USD FOMC Member Tarullo Speaks

Apr 10 EUR French Industrial Production m/m 0.2% -0.2%

Thu EUR French CPI m/m 0.6% 0.6%

EUR ECB Monthly Bulletin 59.2 60.0

EUR Italian Industrial Production m/m 0.2% -0.2%

EUR French CPI m/m 0.6% 0.6%

EUR ECB Monthly Bulletin




EUR Italian Industrial Production m/m -0.2% 1.0%

USD Natural Gas Storage

USD 30-y Bond Auction 3.63|2.4

USD Federal Busget Balance -76.5B -193.5B

Apr 11 EUR German Final CPI m/m 0.3% 0.3%

Fri USD PPI m/m 0.1% -0.1%

USD Core PPI m/m 0.2% -0.2%

USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 81.2 80.0

USD Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations 3.2%

GOLD

GOLD LITTLE CHANGED AFTER FIFTH MONTHLY DROP ON GLOBAL ECONOMY

Gold swung between gains and losses, after the longest run of monthly declines since

1997, as investors weighed improving global economic data amid speculation that

central banks will press on with stimulus.

Gold for immediate delivery was at $1,579.41 an ounce at 3:46 p.m. In Singapore from

$1,579.58 yesterday. Prices are set to decline 0.1 percent this week after dropping 5.1

percent in February for the fifth monthly drop as investment holdings plunged 4.2

percent. Bullion for April delivery was little changed at $1,578.90 on the Comex in New

York.

Prices fell 5.7 percent this year after a 12-year rally in 2012 as investor cut holdings in

exchange-traded products to the lowest since September. European Central Bank

President Mario Draghi said this week that the bank is far from exiting stimulus, while

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke defended the bank’s asset purchases.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said that the commodity’s price cycle had turned as the

U.S. economy recovers.




GLOBAL RECOVERY

Jobless claims in the U.S. dropped in the week that ended Feb. 23, the government

said yesterday. German unemployment unexpectedly fell in February amid signs that

Europe’s biggest economy is recovering, and Japan’s industrial production in January

rose for the second straight month. Two Chinese manufacturing indexes showed today

the world’s second-largest economy expanded at a slower-than-estimated pace.

Cash bullion of 99.99 percent purity on the Shanghai Gold Exchange lost 1 percent to

320.70 yuan a gram ($1,602.89 an ounce). Most-active futures were little changed at

29,550 rupees per 10 grams ($1,686.40 an ounce) on the Multi Commodity Exchange

of India Ltd.

Silver for immediate delivery was little changed at $28.53 an ounce, poised for a fourth

weekly loss. Platinum dropped as much as 0.6 percent to $1,574.37 an ounce, the

lowest since Jan. 8. The metal is set for a third weekly fall. Palladium declined 0.4

percent to $725.85 an ounce.

CRUDEOIL

OIL FALLS TO 2013 LOW ON CHINA, EUROPE MANUFACTURING

West Texas Intermediate oil slipped to the lowest level this year as manufacturing

expanded less than forecast in China and contracted in Europe, bolstering concern that

fuel demand will decline.

Futures fell 1.5 percent after data showed China’s manufacturing growth slowed for a

second month while factory output declined in the euro area and the U.K. The factory

data helped the U.S. Dollar strengthen against the British pound and the euro. A

stronger dollar curbs the appeal of raw materials to investors.

Crude oil for April delivery fell $1.37 to $90.68 a barrel on the New York Mercantile

Exchange, the lowest settlement since Dec. 24. Prices dropped 2.6 percent this week.

The volume of all futures traded was down 1.5 percent from the 100-day average at




3:10 p.m.

Brent oil for April settlement dropped 98 cents, or 0.9 percent, to end the session at

$110.40 a barrel on the London- based ICE Futures Europe exchange. It was the lowest

close since Jan. 15. Volume was 52 percent above the 100-day average. The European

benchmark grade traded at a premium of $19.72 to WTI, up from $19.33 yesterday.

CHINESE MANUFACTURING

In China, the world’s biggest oil-consuming country after the U.S., manufacturing

slowed last month, the PMI report from the Federation of Logistics and Purchasing in

Beijing showed. The reading fell to 50.1 last month from 50.4 in January.

A gauge of U.K. Manufacturing based on a survey of purchasing managers slid to 47.9

last month, according to Market Economics and the Chartered Institute of Purchasing

and Supply. In the euro region, a factory gauge was unchanged in February at 47.9,

marking a 19th month of contraction, according to a separate Market report today.

Futures rebounded from the day’s lows as U.S. consumer confidence increased and a

report showed that manufacturing grew at the fastest pace since June 2011. The

Institute for Supply Management said its factory index rose to 54.2, the highest

reading since June 2011.

DOLLAR RALLY

The economic data helped the dollar climb to the highest level against the euro in

almost three months after Italian elections this week delivered a four-way

parliamentary split. The U.S. currency also rose above $1.50 against the pound for the

first time since July 2010.

The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Index of 24 commodities fell as much as 1.3 percent to

640.03, the lowest level since Dec. 31.




SAUDI PRODUCTION

Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s biggest producer, pumped 9 million barrels a day, the least since

May 2011, according to the survey. Output was down 100,000 barrels from January

and 900,000 barrels from May, when production reached the highest since at least

January 1989.

U.S. crude inventories increased 1.13 million barrels to 377.5 million last week, the

highest level since July, a Feb. 27 Energy Information Administration report showed.

Output climbed to 7.12 million barrels a day in the week ended Feb. 15, the most since

August 1992.

Net-long positions in West Texas Intermediate oil held by money managers, or wagers

on rising prices, climbed to 221,534 in the week ended Feb. 15, the highest level since

March 2012, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s

Commitments of Traders report.

Electronic trading volume on the Nymex was 463,360 contracts as of 3:11 p.m. It

totaled 455,826 contracts yesterday, 14 percent below the three-month average. Open

interest was 1.66 million contracts.

BASE METALS

COPPER, ALUMINUM FALL TO THREE-MONTH LOWS ON CHINA DATA

Copper and aluminum fell to three- month lows on signals that manufacturing may sag

in China, the world’s biggest consumer of industrial metals.

Two gauges of Chinese manufacturing showed a pace of expansion that was lower than

analysts estimated, signaling the nation’s economic recovery may be losing steam.

Combined copper inventories monitored by exchanges in Shanghai, London and New

York have climbed to the highest since May 2010.

Copper futures for May delivery dropped 1.3 percent to settle at $3.501 a pound at 1:18

p.m. on the Comex in New York. Earlier, the price touched $3.4725, the lowest for a




most-active contract since Nov. 19.

On the London Metal Exchange, aluminium for delivery in three months fell 1.5

percent to $1,975 a metric ton. Earlier, the price touched $1,956, the lowest since Nov.

23. The metal dropped for the 10th straight session, extending the longest slump since

June.

Copper on the LME fell 1.4 percent to $7,703 a ton ($3.49 a pound). Lead, zinc and tin

also dropped, while nickel rose.

In a report titled “Buying the Dip,” Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said today that copper

will rebound as China’s imports pick up and the U.S. housing market recovers. The

price may rise to $9,000 a ton in six months, the bank said.

Industrial metals and energy led commodities lower today. The Standard & Poor’s

GSCI Spot Index of 24 raw materials erased this year’s gain.

TECHNICAL OVERVIEW

MCX GOLD APRIL• Resistance 2 – 33476• Resistance 1 – 30314• Support 1 – 27152• Support 2 – 23990

MCX SILVER MAY• Resistance 2 – 49523• Resistance 1 – 453251. Support 1 – 41127 • Support 2 – 36929

MCX CRUDE OIL APRIL• Resistance 2 – 6547• Resistance 1 – 6239• Support 1 – 5931 • Support 2 – 5623




MCX COPPER APRIL• Resistance 2 – 430• Resistance 1 – 411• Support 1 – 392• Support 2 – 372

MCX NICKEL APRIL• Resistance 2 – 1104 • Resistance 1 – 1008• Support 1 – 912• Support 2 – 817

MCX LEAD APRIL• Resistance 2 – 136• Resistance 1 – 128• Support 1 – 120• Support 2 – 113

MCX ZINC • Resistance 2 – 128• Resistance 1 – 122• Support 1 – 116 • Support 2 – 110

MCX ALUMINIUM APRIL• Resistance 2 – 118• Resistance 1 – 107• Support 1 – 102• Support 2 – 97

MCX NATURAL GAS APRIL• Resistance 2 – 314• Resistance 1 – 283• Support 1 – 253• Support 2 – 223




NCDEX NEWSLETTER

1. Regulations of the Exchange:The launch of October 2014 expiry futures contracts in Soybean (SYBEANIDR) whichwas scheduled to be launched on April 01, 2014 has been postponed till further notice.

2. Wheat stock:Wheat stock in central pool warehouses was registered at 17.83 million T on 01 April compared to 22.35 million T on 1st March 2014. The highest accumulated stock is in Punjab (7.00 million T) followed by Haryana (2.94 million.

3. Brazil Soybean Harvesting And Exports Updates:Brazil exports 6.23 million tons of soybeans in March 2014, up 75.9 percent compared to same period of the last year. While, on the harvesting side, Brazilian farmers had harvested around 70 percent of the total soybean acre.

4. Jeera Unjha Market Reported Higher Due to Arrival Pressure:At Unjha market in Mehsana, Jeera (Cumin Seed) Loose New opened high at Rs. 10375-10475 per quintal, up by 0.96 per cent from previous trade, due to arrival pressure.

5. Castor Seed Cash & Futures Markets May Move Downward.Castor seed arrivals start increasing and it would pressurize market to move downwardin the weeks ahead. During last four weeks arrivals in various mandis have increased from 50,000 bags to 80,000 bags.

6. The following Future Contract are trading with high volume on NCDEX:Soyabean- MAY ContractRefi. Soya- MAY ContractCastorseed- MAY ContractRM Seed- MAY ContractDhaniya- MAY ContractChana- MAY Contract




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