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This market report offers an incisive and reliable overview of the photovoltaic sector of CIS countries for the period 2013 ÷ 2018. Newly installed PV capacity in this region will exceed 1.6 GW in the next 2 years. The number of fully permitted and ready to build projects is promptly increasing. Rooftop market segment in many countries is not developed and forecasted to score significant growth in the near future. The report provides a complete picture of the market situation, dynamics, risks, current issues and future prospects. You will find 200 pages of valuable information in this unique in-depth analysis of the CIS countries photovoltaic market. With comprehensive market data this report brings clear and concise insights, to help investors, manufacturers and service providers in their decision making process. As 2012 and 2013 were challenging years for photovoltaic (solar PV) industry, the time for taking right decisions during 2014 and the next few years is limited. Fast changing market environment, requires relevant and accurate information.
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CIS COUNTRIES PHOTOVOLTAIC MARKE
T
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Ka
zakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, R
ussia,
Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenis
tan, Ukraine
Outlook 2013 ÷ 2018
Inea Consulting is a well established renewable energy advisory firm focused to emerging markets of Eastern Europe, CIS countries and MENA countries. Through its service Renewable Market WatchTM, the company provides independent renewable sectors overview, customized analysis, market outlooks and sector studies. What makes us different is the quality and accuracy of information, which is interpreted in the best way to take your investment decisions.
www.ineaconsulting.eu
CIS COUNTRIES PHOTOVOLTAIC MARKET: OUTLOOK 2013 ÷ 2018
3
This market report offers an incisive and reliable overview of the photovoltaic sector of CIS
countries for the period 2013 ÷ 2018. Newly installed PV capacity in this region will exceed
1.6 GW in the next 2 years. The number of fully permitted and ready to build projects is
promptly increasing. Rooftop market segment in many countries is not developed and
forecasted to score significant growth in the near future. The report provides a complete
picture of the market situation, dynamics, risks, current issues and future prospects. You
will find 200 pages of valuable information in this unique in-depth analysis of the CIS
countries photovoltaic market. With comprehensive market data this report brings clear
and concise insights, to help investors, manufacturers and service providers in their
decision making process. As 2012 and 2013 were challenging years for photovoltaic
industry, the time for taking right decisions during 2014 and the next few years is limited.
Fast changing market environment, requires relevant and accurate information. For your
convenience we offer opportunity for orders with customized book content.
Reasons to buy this report include:
Solar resource potential in CIS countries
Historical market data provided from 2000 to 2013 and forecasts until 2018
Overview of CIS photovoltaic market development 2000 ÷ 2018 by countries
Development scenario of CIS countries photovoltaic sector until 2018
Major active and upcoming photovoltaic plants in CIS countries
Attractiveness indices for photovoltaic investments in CIS countries
SWOT Analysis (detailed in 5 pages)
Major deals and M&A activity in CIS countries
Overview of CIS legal and regulatory framework for RES generation by countries
Competitive Landscape. Project developers and Investors in CIS countries
EPC providers, Equipment manufacturers and Consultants in CIS countries
Key organizations and stakeholders affecting development of the photovoltaic sector by countries
Comprehensive review of smart grid development in CIS countries
Investment trends, potential and opportunities
At next pages you will see the full table of content of this outlook. For sample report pages
request, please do not hesitate to contact us. To order this report just fill in and send us the
enclosed at the last page order form. Table of contents is referential and may vary for
different countries. If you have any other questions please do not hesitate to call us on
++359 887 342 475 or write an e-mail to [email protected]
CIS COUNTRIES PHOTOVOLTAIC MARKET: OUTLOOK 2013 ÷ 2018
4
TABLE OF CONTENTS
FOREWORD ................................................................................................................... 10
1. METHODOLOGY ................................................................................................... 12
1.1. Methodology ............................................................................................................ 12
1.2. Limitations ................................................................................................................ 15
2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ......................................................................................... 16
3. CIS COUNTRIES RENEWABLE ENERGY POLICY LANDSCAPE .................................... 19
3.1. RES Regulations and Directives of European Union (EU) affecting CIS countries ... 19
3.1.1. Precedent regulations ....................................................................................... 19
3.1.2. EU 2030 Framework for climate and energy policies ....................................... 20
3.1.3. EU Energy Roadmap 2050 ................................................................................. 23
3.1.4. SET Plan ............................................................................................................. 26
3.2. RES Strategy for CIS countries developed by UN ECE .............................................. 31
3.2.1. Development of educational activity and personnel training .......................... 32
3.3. Renewable energy mandatory targets for CIS countries ......................................... 33
4. CIS COUNTRIES ENERGY MARKET ......................................................................... 35
4.1. General electricity market information ................................................................... 35
5. WORLD PHOTOVOLTAIC ENERGY MARKET ........................................................... 40
6. EUROPEAN PHOTOVOLTAIC ENERGY MARKET ...................................................... 57
7. CIS COUNTRIES SOLAR RESOURCE POTENTIAL AND MAPPING .............................. 65
8. CIS COUNTRIES PHOTOVOLTAIC ENERGY MARKET ................................................ 68
8.1. Market overview ...................................................................................................... 68
8.2. Country attractiveness index for photovoltaic energy investments ....................... 70
9. COUNTRY PROFILES ............................................................................................. 71
9.1. ARMENIA .................................................................................................................. 71
9.1.1. Armenia Photovoltaic Energy Market Overview .............................................. 71
9.1.2. Renewable Energy Incentives and Generation Capacity Mandatory Target .... 72
9.1.3. Major deals, M&A activity, major planned, development and operating photovoltaic projects ....................................................................................................... 73
9.1.4. RES Legal and Regulatory Framework .............................................................. 74
9.1.5. Key Stakeholders, Organizations and Institutions ............................................ 76
9.2. AZERBAIJAN .............................................................................................................. 80
9.2.1. Azerbaijan Photovoltaic Energy Market Overview ........................................... 80
9.2.2. Renewable Energy Incentives and Generation Capacity Mandatory Target .... 82
9.2.3. Major deals, M&A activity, major planned, development and operating photovoltaic projects ....................................................................................................... 83
9.2.4. RES Legal and Regulatory Framework .............................................................. 84
CIS COUNTRIES PHOTOVOLTAIC MARKET: OUTLOOK 2013 ÷ 2018
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9.2.5. Key Stakeholders, Organizations and Institutions ............................................ 87
9.3. BELARUS ................................................................................................................... 89
9.3.1. Belarus Photovoltaic Energy Market Overview ................................................ 89
9.3.2. Renewable Energy Incentives and Generation Capacity Mandatory Target .... 90
9.3.3. Major deals, M&A activity, major planned, development and operating photovoltaic projects ....................................................................................................... 91
9.3.4. RES Legal and Regulatory Framework .............................................................. 92
9.3.5. Key Stakeholders, Organizations and Institutions ............................................ 95
9.4. KAZAKHSTAN ............................................................................................................ 97
9.4.1. Kazakhstan Investment Climate ........................................................................ 97
9.4.2. Electricity Market Structure .............................................................................. 97
9.4.3. Kazakhstan Photovoltaic Energy Market Overview ........................................ 101
9.4.4. Renewable Energy Incentives and Generation Capacity Mandatory Target .. 104
9.4.5. Major deals, M&A activity, major planned, development and operating photovoltaic projects ..................................................................................................... 106
9.4.6. RES Legal and Regulatory Framework ............................................................ 110
9.4.7. Key Stakeholders, Organizations and Institutions .......................................... 114
9.5. KYRGYZSTAN ........................................................................................................... 117
9.5.1. Kyrgyzstan Photovoltaic Energy Market Overview ......................................... 117
9.5.2. Renewable Energy Incentives and Generation Capacity Mandatory Target .. 118
9.5.3. Major deals, M&A activity, major planned, development and operating photovoltaic projects ..................................................................................................... 119
9.5.4. RES Legal and Regulatory Framework ............................................................ 119
9.5.5. Key Stakeholders, Organizations and Institutions .......................................... 121
9.6. MOLDOVA .............................................................................................................. 122
9.6.1. Moldova Photovoltaic Energy Market Overview ............................................ 122
9.6.2. Renewable Energy Incentives and Generation Capacity Mandatory Target .. 124
9.6.3. Major deals, M&A activity, major planned, development and operating photovoltaic projects ..................................................................................................... 125
9.6.4. RES Legal and Regulatory Framework ............................................................ 125
9.6.5. Key Stakeholders, Organizations and Institutions .......................................... 126
9.7. RUSSIA .................................................................................................................... 128
9.7.1. Russia Photovoltaic Energy Market Overview ................................................ 128
9.7.2. Renewable Energy Incentives and Generation Capacity Mandatory Target .. 132
9.7.3. Major deals, M&A activity, major planned, development and operating photovoltaic projects ..................................................................................................... 136
9.7.4. RES Legal and Regulatory Framework ............................................................ 138
9.7.5. Key Stakeholders, Organizations and Institutions .......................................... 149
9.8. TAJIKISTAN .............................................................................................................. 154
9.8.1. Tajikistan Photovoltaic Energy Market Overview ........................................... 154
9.8.2. Renewable Energy Incentives and Generation Capacity Mandatory Target .. 155
9.8.3. Major deals, M&A activity, major planned, development and operating photovoltaic projects ..................................................................................................... 156
9.8.4. RES Legal and Regulatory Framework ............................................................ 157
9.8.5. Key Stakeholders, Organizations and Institutions .......................................... 159
9.9. TURKMENISTAN ..................................................................................................... 160
9.9.1. Turkmenistan Photovoltaic Energy Market Overview .................................... 160
9.9.2. Renewable Energy Incentives and Generation Capacity Mandatory Target .. 161
CIS COUNTRIES PHOTOVOLTAIC MARKET: OUTLOOK 2013 ÷ 2018
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9.9.3. Major deals, M&A activity, major planned, development and operating photovoltaic projects ..................................................................................................... 162
9.9.4. RES Legal and Regulatory Framework ............................................................ 163
9.9.5. Key Stakeholders, Organizations and Institutions .......................................... 163
9.10. UZBEKISTAN ............................................................................................................ 165
9.10.1. Uzbekistan Photovoltaic Energy Market Overview ........................................ 165
9.10.2. Renewable Energy Incentives and Generation Capacity Mandatory Target .. 166
9.10.3. Major deals, M&A activity, major planned, development and operating photovoltaic projects ..................................................................................................... 169
9.10.4. RES Legal and Regulatory Framework ............................................................ 170
9.10.5. Key Stakeholders, Organizations and Institutions .......................................... 172
9.11. UKRAINE ................................................................................................................. 174
9.11.1. Ukraine Photovoltaic Energy Market Overview ............................................. 174
9.11.2. Renewable Energy Incentives and Generation Capacity Mandatory Target .. 176
9.11.3. Major deals, M&A activity, major planned, development and operating photovoltaic projects ..................................................................................................... 178
9.11.4. RES Legal and Regulatory Framework ............................................................ 180
9.11.5. Key Stakeholders, Organizations and Institutions .......................................... 188
10. COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF SUPPORT SCHEMES IN CIS COUNTRIES. FEED-IN TARIFFS AND GREEN CERTIFICATES .............................................................................. 192
11. COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF MANDATORY CAPACITY GENERATION TARGETS IN CIS COUNTRIES .................................................................................................................. 193
12. ELECTRICITY GRID NETWORK IN CIS COUNTRIES ................................................. 195
12.1. Transmission System Operators (TSO’s) ................................................................ 196
12.2. Distribution System Operators (DSO’s) .................................................................. 200
12.3. Grid connection constraints ................................................................................... 201
13. SMART GRID DEVELOPMENT IN CIS COUNTRIES ................................................. 203
13.1. Smart Grid and Super Smart Grid Concept ............................................................ 203
13.2. Smart grids development in CIS countries ............................................................. 205
13.3. Smart grids development in the CEE & SEE countries ........................................... 207
14. COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE. PROJECT DEVELOPERS AND INVESTORS IN CIS PHOTOVOLTAIC ENERGY MARKET ................................................................................ 211
15. EPC AND O&M PROVIDERS, EQUIPMENT MANUFACTURERS AND CONSULTANTS IN CIS PHOTOVOLTAIC ENERGY MARKET .......................................................................... 215
16. SWOT ANALYSIS OF CIS PHOTOVOLTAIC ENERGY MARKET ................................. 222
17. RISKS ABOUT PHOTOVOLTAIC INVESTMENTS IN CIS COUNTRIES ........................ 226
17.1. Risks Associated with the Photovoltaic Energy Industry in CIS countries ............. 226
17.1.1. Regulatory Risk ................................................................................................ 226
17.1.2. Competition within the Photovoltaic Energy Industry ................................... 226
17.1.3. Public Attitudes towards Photovoltaic Energy Projects ................................. 227
17.1.4. Emerging Market Risk ..................................................................................... 228
17.1.5. Insurance Risk ................................................................................................. 228
17.1.6. Force Majeure Risk ......................................................................................... 228
CIS COUNTRIES PHOTOVOLTAIC MARKET: OUTLOOK 2013 ÷ 2018
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17.2. Risks Associated with the Investor’s Finance Arrangements ................................. 228
17.2.1. Asset Sale Risk ................................................................................................. 228
17.2.2. Borrowing Risk ................................................................................................ 229
17.2.3. Foreign Exchange Risk ..................................................................................... 229
17.3. Risks Associated with the Development of Photovoltaic Energy Plants ................ 230
17.3.1. Variability in the Source of Photovoltaic Energy ............................................ 230
17.3.2. Development of the Project and Construction Risk ....................................... 230
17.3.3. Capital Cost Risk .............................................................................................. 230
17.3.4. Permits ............................................................................................................ 231
17.3.5. Land Options ................................................................................................... 231
17.3.6. Construction .................................................................................................... 232
17.3.7. Dependency on Suppliers ............................................................................... 232
17.3.8. Technology Risk............................................................................................... 232
17.3.9. Operation and Maintenance Risk ................................................................... 233
17.3.10. Market Price of Electricity ........................................................................... 233
18. INVESTMENT TRENDS, POTENTIAL AND OPPORTUNITIES IN CIS PHOTOVOLTAIC ENERGY MARKET ......................................................................................................... 234
19. CONCLUSIONS ................................................................................................... 236
20. LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS .................................................................................... 238
21. REFERENCES ...................................................................................................... 240
22. DISCLAIMER ....................................................................................................... 243
23. APPENDIX I. SOLAR RESOURCE MAPS OF EUROPE AND CIS COUNTRIES .............. 244
LIST OF MAPS, CHARTS AND TABLES
MAP 1: The synchronous grids of Europe (IPS/UPS is shown in orange, UCTE is equal to ENTSO-E) ................................................................................................................................. 36
MAP 2: Interconnection Grid Map CEE and CIS countries, ENTSO-E, 2012 ............................ 38
MAP 3: Solar resource potential of CIS countries ................................................................... 66
MAP 4: Solar Resource Map of Armenia ................................................................................ 72
MAP 5: Solar Resource Map of Azerbaijan ............................................................................. 81
MAP 6: Solar Resource Map of Belarus .................................................................................. 89
MAP 7: Electricity Grid Map of Kazakhstan, KEGOC 2011 ...................................................... 98
MAP 8: Solar Resource Map of Kazakhstan .......................................................................... 102
MAP 10: Solar Resource Map of Moldova ............................................................................ 123
MAP 11: Solar Resource Map of Russia ................................................................................ 130
MAP 13: Solar Resource Map of Tajikistan, 3TIER 2009 ....................................................... 154
MAP 14: Solar Resource Map of Turkmenistan .................................................................... 160
MAP 15: Solar Resource Map of Uzbekistan ........................................................................ 166
MAP 16: Solar Resource Map of Ukraine .............................................................................. 175
MAP 17: Smart Grid Projects Map in Europe 2013, JRC ....................................................... 210
Map 18: Solar irradiation and solar electricity potential for optimally inclined photovoltaic modules in Europe and CIS countries, JRC PVGIS ................................................................. 244
CIS COUNTRIES PHOTOVOLTAIC MARKET: OUTLOOK 2013 ÷ 2018
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Map 19: Solar irradiation and solar electricity potential for horizontally mounted photovoltaic modules in Europe and CIS countries, GeoModel Solar S.r.o. 2011 ............... 245
Chart 1: Technology Road Map for Photovoltaic Energy Development, SET Plan ................. 28
Chart 2: Contribution of Key Drivers Toward Module Cost Reduction .................................. 42
Chart 3: PV module price trends from 2008 to 2013 (€/Wp) ................................................. 42
Chart 4: PV system price evolution (€/Wp) in 2012 ............................................................... 44
Chart 5: Global Cumulative Installed Photovoltaic (solar PV) capacity 2000 ÷ 2012 in MW . 45
Chart 6: Global PV cumulative installed capacity share in 2012 (MW; %) ............................. 46
Chart 7: PV market share outside Europe in 2012 (MW; %) .................................................. 50
Chart 8: Global annual PV market forecast 2000 - 2018 (in MW) .......................................... 55
Chart 9: Global Rooftop Photovoltaic Development Scenario 2012 - 2018 ........................... 56
Chart 10: European PV markets split 2012 (in MW and %) .................................................... 59
Chart 11: Top 5 European residential PV markets in 2012 (in %) ........................................... 60
Chart 12: Top 5 European ground mounted PV markets in 2012 (in %) ................................ 61
Chart 13: European annual photovoltaic market forecast until 2018 (in MW) ...................... 64
Chart 14: Cumulative developments of photovoltaic power plants in CIS countries in MW from 2000 to 2018, including estimates ................................................................................. 69
Chart 15: Cumulative developments of photovoltaic power plants in Armenia in MW from 2000 to 2018, including estimates .......................................................................................... 74
Chart 16: Cumulative developments of photovoltaic power plants in Azerbaijan in MW from 2000 to 2018, including estimates .......................................................................................... 84
Chart 17: Cumulative developments of photovoltaic power plants in Belarus in MW from 2000 to 2018, including estimates .......................................................................................... 92
Chart 18: Cumulative developments of photovoltaic power plants in Kazakhstan in MW from 2000 to 2018, including estimates ............................................................................... 110
Chart 19: Cumulative developments of photovoltaic power plants in Kyrgyzstan in MW from 2000 to 2018, including estimates ........................................................................................ 119
Chart 20: Cumulative developments of photovoltaic power plants in Moldova in MW from 2000 to 2018, including estimates ........................................................................................ 125
Chart 21: Cumulative developments of photovoltaic power plants in Russia in MW from 2000 to 2018, including estimates ........................................................................................ 137
Chart 22: Cumulative developments of photovoltaic power plants in Tajikistan in MW from 2000 to 2018, including estimates ........................................................................................ 156
Chart 23: Cumulative developments of photovoltaic power plants in Turkmenistan in MW from 2000 to 2018, including estimates ............................................................................... 162
Chart 24: Cumulative developments of photovoltaic power plants in Uzbekistan in MW from 2000 to 2018, including estimates ........................................................................................ 169
Chart 25: Cumulative developments of photovoltaic power plants in Ukraine in MW from 2000 to 2018, including estimates ........................................................................................ 179
Chart 26: Mandatory capacity generation targets for share of renewable energies in CIS countries to 2020 (in %) ........................................................................................................ 193
Chart 27: Smart Grid Model Concept ................................................................................... 203
Chart 28: The SuperSmart Grid Diagram .............................................................................. 205
CIS COUNTRIES PHOTOVOLTAIC MARKET: OUTLOOK 2013 ÷ 2018
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Chart 29: Cumulative number of smart grid projects in selected CEE & SEE countries compared to average EU number, 2000 ÷ 2012 ................................................................... 208
Chart 30: Cumulative budget of smart grid projects in selected CEE & SEE countries compared to average EU numbers, 2000 ÷ 2012 ................................................................. 209
Table 1: Top 15 countries by newly installed PV capacity in MW in 2012 ............................. 48
Table 2: Support schemes for RES generation in the EU countries ........................................ 57
Table 3: Attractiveness index for photovoltaic energy investments in CIS countries in 201370
Table 4: Feed-in tariff for solar energy in Armenia................................................................. 76
Table 5: Feed-in tariff for solar energy in Azerbaijan ............................................................. 86
Table 6: Feed-in tariff for solar energy in Belarus .................................................................. 94
Table 7: Planned solar projects in Kazakhstan for 2013 - 2020 ............................................ 109
Table 8: Temporary Feed-in tariff for solar energy in Kazakhstan ....................................... 114
Table 9: Limits on solar (photovoltaic) installed capacity in Russia 2014 - 2020 ................. 141
Table 10: Limits on capital costs for solar (photovoltaic) projects in Russia ........................ 144
Table 11: Fixed operating costs for solar (photovoltaic) projects in Russia ......................... 144
Table 12: Local content requirements for solar (photovoltaic) projects in Russia .............. 145
Table 13: Minimum capacity factor for solar (photovoltaic) installation in Russia .............. 148
Table 14: Feed-in tariffs for electricity from renewable sources in Ukraine after 01.04.2013 ............................................................................................................................................... 182
Table 15: Local Content Requirements for Renewable Power Plants in Ukraine ................ 184
Table 16: Mandatory local purchasing allotments for photvoltaic power plants in Ukraine ............................................................................................................................................... 185
Table 17: Support schemes in CIS countries, 2013 ............................................................... 192
© 2013, Inea Consulting Ltd., Manufactured in Bulgaria; All rights reserved. Last updated on 15.11.2013
