Upload
energy-intelligence
View
495
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
Total's chairman and CEO, Christophe de Margerie, presents his keynote at this year's Oil & Money Conference. He discusses the investment and technologies needed in order to meet oil demand. View the full presentation here.
Citation preview
A REVOLUTION IN PROGRESS
Keynote address by
Christophe de MargerieTotal Chairman & CEO
Oil & Money– Sept. 2013
Oil&Money-Oct.1st,2013 2
Investments and technology needed to meet oil demand
0
100100
50 Natural decline of fields ~4-5%/y on average
Oil demand +0.6% / year
~55 Mb/d
Mb/dTight oil
Extra heavy oil
Deep offshore
Conventional(including EOR)
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Sparecapacity 4% 4%5-6%
Oil supply-demand New supply by technology
Significant investments required to satisfy demand
Oil&Money-Oct.1st,2013 3
Non conventional hydrocarbon resources largely extend the life time for oil and gas
4 yrs before Today's view
0
400
800
1200
1600 Shale gas
CBM
Tight / shale oil
Gboe
Large upwards revaluation of unconventional potential in the
recent past
Liquids Gas~2,350 Gb (w/o oil shale) ~2,900 Gboe (w/o hydrates)
Well defined resources
Already produced
Recovery increase
YTF
Oil shale
EHO
Tight / Shale Oil
Shale Gas
Years of production at current
pace
CBM
Unconventional resources
35
100
80
50
140
70
Global resources
Hydrates
Peak oil no longer an issue: liquid production expected to reach a plateau slightly below 100M b/d by 2025
Oil&Money-Oct.1st,2013 4
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Oil ProductionGas Production
Capex (activity driven increase)
Capex (inflation driven increase)
B$
& M
boep
dCapex large increase over the period 2004 – 2012 is partly due to cost inflation; production growth has been slow
CAGR 2000-12** CAGR 2008-12***
E&P Capex 15,6% 8,6%
Oil & gas production 1,8% 0,5%
Oil 1,2% 0,3%
Gas 2,8% 0,8%
75 Mbpd
40 Mboepd
86 Mbpd
56 Mboepd
* CERA Upstream Capital Cost Index, 2000 (base 100) **Computed using 2000 as the reference year ***Computed using 2008 as the reference year