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Presented by
Health Systems Research1601 Parkview Avenue
Rockford, Illinois 61107815.395.5639
May 20, 2011
Presented to
Northern Illinois American Advertising
Federation
2000 Population
278,418
2010 Population
295,266
Change + 16,848
Natural Increase
+15,536
Births + 40,556
Deaths - 25,020
Net Migration + 1,312International + 2,275Domestic -963
Source: Census Bureau 2010 Census, 2009 estimates, 2010 components estimated by HSR
In-Migrants $38,903
Out-Migrants $41,765
Source: Internal Revenue Service
Winnebago
$111,216
Boone $136,770
Kane $189,563
McHenry $196,981
Cook $256,649
DuPage $279,994
Home prices are attractive for families in the Chicago area, even if they must commute.
Rockford area families find selling a home, then purchasing elsewhere to be difficult financially.
Low price may indicate low
demand.
County
In-Migration From
Out-Migration ToNet
Migration
Number
Percent Number Percent2007-2008
Cook 1,314 12.9% 528 9.8% +786Boone 1,231 12.1% 463 8.6% +768Rock, WI 575 5.6% 285 5.3% +290McHenry 353 3.5% 111 2.1% +242Ogle 635 6.2% 295 5.5% +340Kane 414 4.1% 142 2.6% +272Stephenson
291 2.9% 159 3.0% +132
DuPage 254 2.5% 126 2.3% +128DeKalb 252 2.5% 113 2.1% +139Other 4,897 47.8% 3,175 58.9% +1,704Total 10,198 100.0% 5,387 100.0% +4,811Source: Internal Revenue Service, Statistics of Income for 2007-2008
Year
Winnebago County
City ofRockford
Vacant
Percent
Vacant
Percent
2010 10,464
8.3% 6,727 10.1%
2000 6,424 5.6% 4,412 6.9%1990 4,939 4.9% 3,307 5.7%1980 3,683 4.0% 2,448 4.5%
2000-2010 housing units+10.1%
2000-2010 population +6.1%
New jobs being created are primarily in the services sector, but service jobs with lower wages and often without benefits are replacing manufacturing jobs.
Rockford industries have increasingly lost local control. Few corporate headquarters; no large firms have headquarters here. Lack “daily business air travel” to major cities.
Unemployment passed 20% in January 2010, has now “improved” to Winnebago County – 12.9%, Rockford – 14.2%. (March 2011)
The MSA has lost about 15,000 manufacturing jobs in the past decade and remains prone to severe cyclical swings. Manufacturing now at 26,500, was at 28,800 in March 2009. Still falling.
Second highest manufacturing proportion (25%) among larger counties in the nation (2004 ACS).
“Largest employer” list is dominated by service industries such as education, health and government. These are sectors where we “tax ourselves.” They do not, in general, bring in dollars to build the economy.
Rank Employer
Employees Type
1. Rockford Public Schools 3,730Service
2. Rockford Health System 3,003Service
3. SwedishAmerican Health System 2,988
Service
4. Wal-Mart 2,750Service
5. OSF St. Anthony Medical Center 2,303
Service
6. Hamilton Sundstrand 2,200 Basic
7. Rockford Park District 1,739Service
8. Winnebago County 1,731Service
9. Chrysler 1,700 Basic10. United Parcel Service 1,600 BasicSource: Rockford Area Economic Development Council
Area
2000 Census
(data for 1999)
American
Community
Survey2005-2009
Change1999-2005/0
7Winnebago County $43,886 $46,882 +6.8%City of Rockford $37,667 $38,486 +0.2%United States $41,994 $51,425 +22.5%
Age Group
2000Census ACS
Change1999 2005/09
15-24 $25,519 $20,374 -$5,145
25-44 $48,289 $50,581 +$2,292
45-64 $55,764 $60,087 +$4,323
65+ $27,089 $30,817 +$3,728
WINNEBAGO COUNTYMEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME: 1999 AND
2005/09BY HOUSEHOLDER AGE
Age Group
2000 Census ACS
Change1999 2005/09
White $45,915 $50,495+
$4,580
Black $28,228 $24,412 -$3,816
Asian $57,500 $63,548+
$6,048
Hispanic $38,823 $34,797 -$4,026
WINNEBAGO COUNTYMEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME: 1999
AND 2005/09BY HOUSEHOLDER RACE/ETHNIC
Rockford metropolitan area per capita personal income (PCPI) as a percent of the U.S. PCPI has been on a continuous downward slide.
PCPI includes all wealth, not just earnings - but also dividends, interest, government programs.
YearPercent
ofU.S. PCPI
Metro
Rank2009 78% 2662000 90% 1431990 98% 971980 103% 79
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
Only two Illinois metropolitan areas had a lower per capita personal income than Rockford for 2009. (BEA)
MetropolitanArea
Per Capita Personal Income
Chicago $43,727Springfield $40,109Peoria $39,568Decatur $38,991Bloomington-Normal
$38,818
Quad Cities $38,065Rockford $31,915Kankakee $31,359Danville $31,311
Lower income shoppers are the fastest growing income group in the Rockford area and nation.
In total, growth is outpacing higher income households.
Compared with other groups, budget-constrained shoppers:
Shop more frequently, but spend less per trip
Switch retailers and brands more often
Key groups – younger adults, single parents, elderly, minority
PERSONAL INCOME SOURCES: 1998-2009
Source 2009 1998
Earnings 62% 69%
Dividends, interest, rent
16% 19%
Transfer (gov) receipts
21% 12%
Total 100.0% 100.0%
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Nearly one in four persons (23.0%) are enrolled in Medicaid and related programs, 68,916 in 2009.
Of Winnebago County households 22,643 receive food stamps. (Nov. 2009)
Half (50.3%) of Winnebago County 2008 were to unmarried mothers, a predictor of poverty and “welfare”, Rockford – 57.6%.
Occupation
Winnebago County United States2005/2009 2000
Change
2005/2009 2000
Change
Management,professional
28.6%29.7
%-1.1% 34.8% 33.6%
+1.2%
Service16.7%
12.9%
+3.8% 16.9%
14.9%+2.0
%Sales and office
27.0%26.7
%+0.3% 25.6%
26.7%
-1.1%
Farming0.1%
0.2%
-0.1% 0.7%
0.7%---
Construction7.5%
8.6%
-1.1% 9.5%
9.4%+0.1
%Production, transportation
20.1%22.0
%-1.9% 12.5% 14.6% -2.1%
The diversity increase from 1950-2010 has been significant for several groups.
1950–2010 GROWTH
Race/Ethnic
Numerical
Change
Black +34,147
Hispanic +29,008
Asian +6,617
From 2000-2010, Winnebago County grew by 16,848 from 278,418 to 295,266.
Net growth was primarily composed of additional minority persons.
Numeric Pct. of Race/Ethnic Group Change GrowthWhite, non Hispanic -6,621 -39.3%Hispanic +12,971 77.0%Black +6,791 40.3%Asian +2,030 12.0%
From 2000-2010, growth was virtually all minority.
Race/Ethnic
2010 20002000-2010
Change
No. Pct. No. Pct. No. Pct.
White 214,196
72.5%
220,817
79.3%
-6,621
-3.0%
Black 35,358
12.0%
29,038
10.4%
6,320 +21.8%
Hispanic 32,177
10.9%
19,206
6.9% 12,971
+67.5%
American Indian 563 0.2% 584 0.2% -21 -3.6%
Asian/Pacific Isl.6,722 2.3% 4,795 1.7% 1,927
+40.2%
Multiple Races/Other
6,250 2.1% 3,978 1.4% -2,272
+57.1%
Total 295,266
100.0%
278,418
100.0%
16,848
+6.1%
Except for Hispanic, all races are non-HispanicSource: U.S. Census Bureau
At the current growth rate, the county will have about 45,000 Hispanics by 2020 or one-seventh of the projected county population.
YearHispanicPopulatio
n1990 7,7712000 19,2062010 32,1772020 (est.)
45,148
Source: 1990-2010 Census Bureau2020 Health Systems Research
Hispanics population will be larger than the Black population.
Year(Sep
t. 30)
TotalEnroll-ment White Black
Hispanic Asian
Amer.
Indian
Multi-
Racial1
201027,09
7
9,56835.3%
8,08329.8
%
6,62624.5%
1,0083.7%
500.2%
1,758
6.5%
200026,04
7
13,340
51.2%
8,18431.4
%
3,67814.1%
8003.1%
450.2%
NotAvaila
ble1990
26,554
18,534
69.8%
5,97522.5
%
1,2754.8%
7432.8%
270.1%
198032,40
7
24,613
75.9%
6,38419.7
%
8662.7%
3671.1%
1770.5%
1Multiracial added as a category beginning 2004.Source: Rockford School District Fall Housing Report
Minority populations will continue to grow and constitute a larger proportion of the population.
“Hispanic Wave” continuing, though immigration may be slowing. Hispanic community established
Minority birth rates are much higher than white, non-Hispanic.
Young minority populations, median ages – white (39.7), Asian (34.5), Black (27.5), Hispanic (24.8). (2005/09 American Community Survey)
Family Type
Winnebago
CountyRockford
City
In family households
74,844 40,262
Married couple 62.9% 51.5%
Male single parent
6.2% 6.9%
Female single parent
30.1% 40.8%
Non-family household
0.1% 0.1%
Source: American Community Survey: 2005-2009
Race/Ethnic
MarriedCouple
SingleFemale
Grand-Parent
White 73.2% 14.0% 4.0%
Black 26.5% 49.5% 12.2%
Hispanic
60.7% 16.8% 5.8%
Asian 80.7% 6.8% 4.3%1Updated information not available
Group
Percent Low
IncomeDistrict 205 75.3%State 45.4%
High Schools (est.)
65.3%
Elementary (est.)
76.6%
Source: ISBE Report Card 2010
DEFINITION: Pupils age 3 to 17, inclusive, from families receiving Public Aid, living in institutions for neglected or delinquent children, being supported in foster homes with public funds, or eligible to receive free or reduced-price lunches. Free lunch is available if household income is below 130% of poverty, reduced price lunch under 185%.
Community Child PovertyRockford 38.9%Peoria 33.0%Chicago 30.8%Waukegan 24.5%Springfield 23.4%Cicero 22.6%Elgin 19.1%Aurora 17.3%Joliet 16.9%Naperville 4.2%Source: Census Bureau
American Community Survey: 2008-2009
Voices for Illinois Children, 2011
80% currently graduate from Rockford high schools. (77% black, 77% Hispanic, 82% white) – according to the 2010 Report Card.
However, the Report Cards do not provide an accurate picture of the graduation rates.
Race/EthnicGend
er
Entered 9th Fall 2003
Graduated
June 2007
PercentGradua
tedWhite, non-Hispanic
Male 628 353 56.2%Female
570 374 65.6%
Black, non-Hispanic
Male 497 157 31.6%Female
508 246 48.4%
Asian/Pacific Islander
Male 44 27 61.4%Female
34 25 73.5%
HispanicMale 214 94 43.9%Female
220 106 48.2%
Total 2,718 1,386 51.0%Source: Fall Housing Report 2003
ISBE Graduates 2007
PERCENT MEETING OR EXCEEDING STANDARDS
High School 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005
Auburn 41.5%
42.3%
38.9%
38.1%
50.9%
51.4%
East 30.8%
31.8%
23.7%
23.9%
30.5%
22.7%
Guilford
39.0%
36.8%
38.3%
46.1%
46.6%
52.1%
Jefferson
27.8%
30.7%
28.2%
29.6%
34.9%
41.3%
District 35.2%
35.2%
33.6%
36.4%
41.8%
42.9%
State 53.0%
53.0%
52.5%
52.6%
54.3%
54.9%
Source: ISBE, Prairie State Achievement Examination
The Rockford Area continues to trail the state and nation in residents with a Bachelor’s Degree.
Year
City ofRockfo
rd
Winn.Count
yIllinoi
s U.S.
2005 - 2009 (ACS)
19.9% 20.5%29.8%27.5%
2000 (Census) 19.8% 19.4%26.1%24.4%
Educational Attainment
UnitedStates
Winnebago
Differ-ence
Less than 9th grade 6.4% 5.6% -0.8%9th to 12th grade, no diploma
9.1% 10.7% +1.6%
HS Grad (includes GED) 29.3% 34.2% +4.9%
Some college, no degree
20.3% 21.5% +1.2%
Associate’s degree 7.4% 7.6% +0.2%
Bachelor’s degree 17.4% 13.6% -3.8%Grad or professional degree
10.1% 6.8% -3.3%
Percent HS graduate or higher
84.6% 83.8% -0.8%
Percent bach. degree or higher
27.5% 20.5% -7.0%
Source: American Community Survey
Few GENXers. Ages 25-39 with college degree comprise 1.2% of our population compared to 2.2% for the nation.
For the first time, information is available on college enrollment for Rockford Public School 205 graduates in the first year after graduation.
DISTRICT 205 GRADUATESATTENDING COLLEGE: 2010
Area 2-Year 4-Year Total
District 30.0% 19.0% 49.0%
U.S. 28.0% 42.0% 70.0%
Source: Rockford District 205National Student Clearinghouse
Some elected officials and community leaders have contended that expansion of our social problems is being driven by “people from Chicago” coming to Rockford because the social services system is so good. Is this true?
Little evidence, mostly anecdotes about “people from Chicago.”
Of course people are coming from Chicago! Cook County has 5.3 million people, so certainly many come this way and Rockfordians move to Chicago. In other times, we would be proud that individuals are moving here.
Movers tend to be low income, unemployed renters, those in poverty move more often.
Virtually all Illinois communities blame “Chicago” for social ills, supposedly because of their excellent social services. However, services are similar in all larger communities.
Why would low income persons choose the community with the highest unemployment?
These problems are our own – low educational attainment, crime and a declining economy.
Believing that social problems are generated by “Chicagoans” is counterproductive, keeping us from improving locally and seeking solutions.
Blaming social services comes at a time of increasing needs and reduced support. A strong set of services is essential.
