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The National Risk Assessment
BCI London Forum, 13 February 2015 Civil Contingencies Secretariat
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How the UK prepares for the risks it facesNational Risk Assessment
(NRA)
Assesses the major threats and hazards the UK could face over the next 5 years
Risks are assessed in terms of their likelihood and impact, incorporating historical evidence and best available science
Produced every two years
National Resilience Planning
Assumptions (NRPAs)
Sets out the common consequences of the risks in the NRA e.g. Mass fatalities, mass casualties, debris and rubble
Produced every two years
Using the NRPAs to
develop the core
capabilities for responding to emergencies
National Resilience
Capabilities Programme
Lead Government Departments are responsible for building individual capabilities against the NRPAs. This is coordinated in Cabinet Office.
Warning and informing is one of the capabilities
Identifying consequences common to all or a significant number of risks
BCI London Forum, February 2015
National Security Risk Assessment Provides a common framework for identifying, assessing and comparing risks which seriously threaten UK national security interests in the next 5 to 20 years. Used to inform the National Security Strategy (NSS) .
Forward LookProvides Government with an indication of the relative likelihood and impact of unfolding or emerging civil domestic risks. It is produced every quarter.
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Timeframes and geographic scope
BCI London Forum, February 2015
Longer term – 20 years
Short term –6 months
Medium term – 5 years
Domestic InternationalDomestic and international with a domestic impact
National Risk Register
National Security Risk Assessment
Forward LookNational Risk Assessment
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Developing emergency management capabilities
BCI London Forum, February 2015
Excess fatalities & casualties
No notice fatalities & casualties
Contaminated fatalities & casualties
Chemical terrrorist attack
Nuclear accident
Industrial accident resulting in chemical release
Accidental release of biological agent
Severe Winter weather
Pandemic influenza
Heatwave
Conventional bomb attack on a crowded place
Major transport accident
Dealing with fatalities & casualties
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National Risk Register Hazards Matrix
BCI London Forum, February 2015
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National Risk Register Threats Matrix
BCI London Forum, February 2015
Tools to support national and local risk management
7 BCI London Forum, February 2015
Local Risk Management Guidance
Guidance to inform local risk assessments and help develop local resilience planning assumptions.
This guidance also helps develop local risk communication strategies and empower communities.
National Resilience Planning AssumptionsNational Risk Register National Risk
Assessment
Local Community Risk Register
Public version of local risk assessments to
support community and corporate resilience
Local Planning Assumptions
Local planning assumptions based on
local risk assessment to inform resilience
capabilities locally
Local Risk Assessment
Assessment of local risk profile using local
knowledge & experts to interpret and tailor
national information as required
Risk Frequently Asked Questions
Addresses the common questions on local risk
assessment and resilience planning.
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Comprehensive review of our methodology
BCI London Forum, February 2015
Communicating uncertainty
Expressing likelihood& levels of confidence
Reasonable Worst Case Scenarios
What scenarios to use for the assessment?
Considering ranges of scenarios
Including longer term impacts
Considering linked and cascading risks
Vulnerabilities to hazards
Impact Scales
How do we measure the potential impacts?
Reviewing social disruption scales
Refining economic impact scales
Monetisation of impacts
Stage 2 Review
Purpose / function
What do we use the assessment for?
Enabling emergency preparedness and wider
resilience capability building
Frequency
How frequently are the risks assessed?
Every 2 years
Stage 1 Review
