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This survey compiled responses from 552 European Chamber member companies and was produced in partnership with Roland Berger Strategy Consultants. European Chamber members are knowledge leaders in their areas of industry, and are the chief contributors to the Chamber's influential publications.
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BUSINESS CONFIDENCE SURVEY 2014
Press conference, Beijing and Shanghai, May 29th, 2014
European Business in China
2 BCS 2014_Press conference_3rddraft_FV.pptx
A. Methodology and respondents' profile
B. Major Findings
C. Business has become more difficult
D. Sober new reality: Persistent market challenges are not easing up and optimism is waning
E. More modest expectations and revised investment plans
F. Regulatory and market access issues continue to present challenges, but reforms would present opportunities
G. Q & A
Contents
3 BCS 2014_Press conference_3rddraft_FV.pptx
A. Methodology and respondents' profile
4 BCS 2014_Press conference_3rddraft_FV.pptx
552 respondents
completed the survey
Response rate high - a stable data set
Survey design
> 63 questions on 4 core themes:
– Company profile
– Outlook
– Human resources
– Financial performance
> Special attention paid in survey design
to ensure consistency for year-on-year
comparability, with some new
questions to cover recent
developments and topical issues
Survey execution
> Almost equal representation of
companies across sectors:
– Professional services
– Industrial goods / services
– Consumer goods / services
> 64% of respondents participated
in last year's survey, which
contributes to a greater stability in
the data set, while also allowing new
insights from first-time participants
Source: BCS 2014, Roland Berger analysis
Methodology
5 BCS 2014_Press conference_3rddraft_FV.pptx
N=552
31%
40%
6%
24%
Professional services
> IT and telecommunications (N=16) > (Non-legal) professional services
(N=73) > Legal (N=21) > Media & Publishing (N=8) > Others (N=13)
> Agriculture, food & beverage (N=31) > Cosmetics (N=9) > Fashion & textile (N=7) > Pharmaceuticals and healthcare (N=11) > Financial services (N=71) > Retail (N=7) > Hospitality (N=7) > Travel & tourism (N=7) > Education (N=8) > Others (N=12)
> Automotive and auto components (N=40) > Chemicals and petroleum (N=24) > Civil engineering and construction (N=16) > Machinery (N=38) > Utilities, primary energy & other commodities (N=22) > Medical devices & other healthcare (N=26) > Transportation, logistics & distribution (N=28) > Others (N=26)
Industrial goods / services:
Others
A strong distribution across industries
Main industry sectors of respondents (2014)
Source: BCS 2014, Roland Berger analysis
Consumer goods / services
6 BCS 2014_Press conference_3rddraft_FV.pptx
Representing companies of various sizes
Revenue and employee numbers (2014)
Source: BCS 2014, Roland Berger analysis
Respondents' Mainland China revenue: Respondents' Mainland China employees:
10%
9%
19%
23%
23%
15% > EUR 1 bn
EUR 251 m - EUR 1 bn
EUR 1 m - EUR 10 m
< EUR 1 m
EUR 11 m - EUR 50 m
EUR 51 m - EUR 250 m 12%
17%
41%
20%
9%
>5000
1001-5000
51-250
251-1000
< 50
N=552 N=552
7 BCS 2014_Press conference_3rddraft_FV.pptx
The majority have been operating in China for over a decade
Years of operation in Mainland China (2014)
24%
30%31%
11%
4%
< 2 years > 20 years 11-20 years 6-10 years 2-5 years
Source: BCS 2014, Roland Berger analysis
54%
8 BCS 2014_Press conference_3rddraft_FV.pptx
B. Major Findings
9 BCS 2014_Press conference_3rddraft_FV.pptx
Major Findings
Two thirds of large companies stated that business in China has become more difficult • More companies view SOEs as their main competitor
Half of European companies believe that the ‘golden age’ for MNCs in China has ended • The Chinese economic slowdown is now the top future business
challenge, overtaking rising labour costs
Companies are reacting by setting more modest expectations • Only 57% plan to expand their current China operations, down from
86% last year
Reforms would present an opportunity • 45% of companies believe that the Third Plenum reforms will be good
for their company
10 BCS 2014_Press conference_3rddraft_FV.pptx
C. Business has become more difficult
11 BCS 2014_Press conference_3rddraft_FV.pptx Source: Business Confidence Survey 2014, Roland Berger analysis
by number of employees:
2014
9%
39%
51%
45%
34%28%
43%60%
68%
12%
>1,000
3%
251-1,000
6%
<250
20%
52%
44%
33%
28%45%
61%
11%
6-10 years
5%
>10 years < 5 years
by time in China:
Business has become more difficult
About the same
Business has become easier
Business has become more difficult
Judgement about the ease of doing business in China (2014)
Over half the
companies
(51%) stated
that business
has become
more difficult;
MNCs and
veterans in
particular
perceive this
14 12
EN CN
12 BCS 2014_Press conference_3rddraft_FV.pptx
9%
16% 18%
23% 29%
37%39%
40% 36%
41%36%
22% 23%
12%
5%
2014
3%
2013
4%
2012
1%
2011
3% 2%
Source: Business Confidence Survey 2011-2014, Roland Berger analysis
A continued decrease in revenue growth
Evolution of company revenue in China year-on-year (2011-2014)
The percentage of
companies that
reported an
increase in
revenues has
continued to decline
year-on-year from
78% in FY 2010 to
just 59% in FY 2013
Increased substantially (>20%)
Increased (5-20%)
Remained the same (+/-5%)
Decreased (5-20%)
Decreased substantially (>20%)
78% 59%
8 6
EN CN
13 BCS 2014_Press conference_3rddraft_FV.pptx Source: Business Confidence Survey 2014, Roland Berger analysis
Revenue performance differs markedly across sectors
AUTOMOTIVE & AUTO COMPONENTS
AGRICULTURE, FOOD & BEVERAGE
MEDICAL DEVICES & OTHER HEALTHCARE
FINANCIAL SERVICES (INCL. INSURANCE)
MACHINERY
55%
50%
46%
45%
Proportion of companies reporting increased revenues by industry sub-sector (2014)
79%
76%
64%
61%
60%
Note: only industries with N>15 are shown
CHEMICALS & PETROLEUM
(NON-LEGAL) PROFESSIONAL SERVICES
UTILITIES, PRIMARY ENERGY & OTHER COMMODITIES
TRANSPORTATION , LOGISTICS & DISTRIBUTION
9 7
EN CN
14 BCS 2014_Press conference_3rddraft_FV.pptx
11% 13% 15% 16%
16% 14%20% 21%
74% 73%64% 63%
2014 2013 2012 2011
Source: Business Confidence Survey 2011-2014, Roland Berger analysis
Fewer profitable companies
Evolution of profitability performance in China year-on-year (2011-2014)
Positive
Break-even
Negative
The percentage of
profitable
companies has
decreased year-
on-year from 74%
in FY 2010 to 63%
in FY 2013
10 8
EN CN
15 BCS 2014_Press conference_3rddraft_FV.pptx Source: Business Confidence Survey 2011-2014, Roland Berger analysis
30% 29% 34% 33%
37%29%
34% 38%
33%42%
33% 30%
2014 2013 2012 2011
Tighter margins
Comparison of China EBIT margins with global EBIT margins (2011-2014)
Better than company average worldwide
Lower than company average worldwide
Same as company average worldwide
More companies
(33%) noted that
their profit margins
in China are lower
than their
company’s global
average than vice-
versa (30%).
11 9
EN CN
16 BCS 2014_Press conference_3rddraft_FV.pptx
D. Sober new reality: persistent market challenges are not easing up and optimism is waning
17 BCS 2014_Press conference_3rddraft_FV.pptx Source: Business Confidence Survey 2014, Roland Berger analysis
A slowdown in China is seen as the major future challenge
Top ten challenges for future business in Mainland China (2014)
Chinese economic slowdown
Rising labour costs
Attracting & retaining talent
Market access barriers
Ambiguous rules & regulations
Discretionary enforcement of regulations
Global economic slowdown
Competition from domestic POEs
Lack of sufficient and qualified talent
Competing against non-compliant competitors
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Ranking relative to BCS 2013 Business challenge ranked in terms of significance
New
New
New 15 13
EN CN
18 BCS 2014_Press conference_3rddraft_FV.pptx
12%
27%
20% 17% 18%22% 27%
83%
65%78% 79% 76% 71% 68%
8%5%
2014
5%
2013
1% 6%
2012
3% 3%
2011
1% 3%
2010
2%
2009 2008
Source: Business Confidence Survey 2008-2014, Roland Berger analysis
Growth expectations are at the lowest level since the peak of the crisis…
Business outlook for growth (2008-2014)
Optimistic
Neutral
N./A.
Pessimistic
The number of
companies optimistic
about future short-
term growth now
stands at just 68%.
While still substantial
in isolation, it
represents a steady
decline from 79% in
2011 and is similar
to the low in 2009
20 18
EN CN
19 BCS 2014_Press conference_3rddraft_FV.pptx Source: Business Confidence Survey 2014, Roland Berger analysis
..with marked differences across industries
CHEMICALS & PETROLEUM
FINANCIAL SERVICES (INCL. INSURANCE)
TRANSPORTATION , LOGISTICS & DISTRIBUTION
MACHINERY
LEGAL
Optimistic business outlook for growth by industry (2014)
88%
78%
78%
74%
73%
63%
61%
58%
52%
49%
Note: Only industries with N>20 are shown
AUTOMOTIVE & AUTO COMPONENTS
AGRICULTURE, FOOD & BEVERAGE
MEDICAL DEVICES & OTHER HEALTHCARE
(NON-LEGAL) PROFESSIONAL SERVICES
UTILITIES, PRIMARY ENERGY & OTHER COMMODITIES
20 BCS 2014_Press conference_3rddraft_FV.pptx Source: Business Confidence Survey 2013-2014, Roland Berger analysis
19%
51%49%
30%36%
15%
2014 2013
Private companies remain the main competitors, but the threat from SOEs is re-emerging
Primary competitor analysis by company (2013-2014)
State-owned enterprise
Private-owned enterprise
N./A.
Chinese POEs
continue to be the
primary competitor
in China, but the
challenge from
SOEs is increasing
18 16
EN CN
21 BCS 2014_Press conference_3rddraft_FV.pptx Source: Business Confidence Survey 2013-2014, Roland Berger analysis
10% 10%
8% 12%
14% 12%
33% 28%
24% 31%
6%8%2%
2014 2013
1%
Rising labour costs are now the primary HR challenge
Key HR challenges (2013-2014)
Rising labour costs
Talent shortage
High staff turnover
Long training period needed to be fully efficient
Difficulty in convincing good candidates to join
None
Other
The two main HR
challenges identified
for two years in a
row have been
rising labour costs
and a talent
shortage, with
labour costs the
bigger issue this
year
16 14
EN CN
22 BCS 2014_Press conference_3rddraft_FV.pptx Source: Business Confidence Survey 2014, Roland Berger analysis
Note: For this question, participants had to select their top three challenges; percentages represented are the sum of percentages from top 1 to top 3 challenges
68% Air quality issues
62% Lack of willingness to be assigned to China
56% Too high expectations on salary / package
25% Schools for children
27% Career opportunities not seen as promising
2014
64% Air quality issues
59% High expectations for expat packages
35% High expectations in pay / benefits
25% Schools for children
29% Employees not seeing promising career prospects
2014
Air pollution is further aggravating HR difficulties
Top challenges in attracting and retaining expat talent in China (2014)
Challenges in ATTRACTING talent Challenges in RETAINING talent
17 15
EN CN
23 BCS 2014_Press conference_3rddraft_FV.pptx Source: Business Confidence Survey 2014, Roland Berger analysis
by time in China:
63%53% 52%
37%47% 48%
>10 years 6-10 years < 5 years 2014
54%
46%
Is the 'golden age' for MNCs ending?
Yes
No
Yes
No
Sentiment on whether the ‘golden age’ for MNCs is over (2014)
Companies are
divided overall
when asked if
the ‘golden age’
for MNCs is over,
but veterans
are more
inclined to
believe so
22 20
EN CN
24 BCS 2014_Press conference_3rddraft_FV.pptx
E. More modest expectations and revised investment plans
25 BCS 2014_Press conference_3rddraft_FV.pptx
19%26% 26% 26% 29%
7% 8% 7%9%
10% 11% 12%10%23%
17%21% 23% 20%
45% 40% 35% 32% 31%
7%
2014 2013 2012 2011 2010
6%
Source: Business Confidence Survey 2010-2014, Roland Berger analysis
China is critical for revenue generation
The proportion of global revenues generated in Mainland China (2010-2014)
<5%
5-10%
11-15%
15-25%
>25% 32%
48%
The percentage of
companies that
generated 10% or
more of their global
revenue in China
has continually
increased over the
past five years and
is up to 48% in FY
2013 from 32% in
FY 2009
24 22
EN CN
26 BCS 2014_Press conference_3rddraft_FV.pptx Source: Business Confidence Survey 2012-2014, Roland Berger analysis
9% 13%15%
19%16%
38%41% 43%
33%24% 21%
7% 8%8%
2014 2013 2012
6%
Fewer companies identify China as their top investment destination
Ranking of China as a destination for new investments (2012-2014)
Top destination
Top 3 destination
Top 5 destination
Top 10 destination
Not a top 10 destination
Only approximately
one fifth of
companies stated
that China was
their top
investment
destination in FY
2013 compared
with one third two
years ago
26 24
EN CN
27 BCS 2014_Press conference_3rddraft_FV.pptx Source: Business Confidence Survey 2013-2014, Roland Berger analysis
6%
25%
86%
57%
18%7%
2014 2013
Substantially fewer companies plan to expand their operations...
Yes
No
Not sure
Expansion plans of China operations (2013-2014)
While over half (57%)
stated that they plan to
expand their current
China operations, this
is down considerably
from 86% the previous
year.
27 25
EN CN
28 BCS 2014_Press conference_3rddraft_FV.pptx Source: Business Confidence Survey 2013- 2014, Roland Berger analysis
2013
Note: All percentages represent the companies that stated 'yes' for each answer option. Alternative answer options were 'no' and 'n/a'.
n.a. Organic growth on own
n.a. Partnership with Chinese companies
41% Mergers & Acquisitions
n.a. Partnership with MNCs
47%
19%
15%
5%
2014
Fewer companies have M&A intentions
Means of expansion (2013-2014)
M&A was mentioned by
just 15% of companies
– a conspicuously
low percentage
compared to the 41%
of companies that were
considering M&A the
previous year
32 30
EN CN
29 BCS 2014_Press conference_3rddraft_FV.pptx Source: Business Confidence Survey 2012-2014, Roland Berger analysis
31%
48%55%
69%
52%45%
2012 2014 2013
Fewer companies are considering expanding to other provinces
Expansion to other PRC provinces (2012-2014)
Yes
No
A shrinking percentage of companies are considering expanding to other provinces in China, down to just 45% in FY 2013 from 69% two years previous
32 30
EN CN
30 BCS 2014_Press conference_3rddraft_FV.pptx Source: Business Confidence Survey 2014, Roland Berger analysis
2014
33%
48%
19%
9%
2014
80%
12%
Looking over the fence
Investment opportunities outside of China (2014)
Yes
No
Not sure
Regularly reviewing investment opportunities outside China but within Asia:
Shifted investment plans from China to other countries in the past 2 years:
Yes
No
Not sure
33 31
EN CN
31 BCS 2014_Press conference_3rddraft_FV.pptx
F. Regulatory and market access issues continue to present challenges, but reforms would present opportunities
32 BCS 2014_Press conference_3rddraft_FV.pptx Source: Business Confidence Survey 2014, Roland Berger analysis
Regulatory obstacles remain a significant concern
Top ten regulatory obstacles when doing business in China (2014)
Unpredictable legislative environment
Discretionary enforcement of regulations
Administrative issues
Licensing requirement
Corruption
Discrimination against FIEs in public procurement
IPR protection
Ownership restrictions
Restrictions on access to financing
Other
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
37 35
EN CN
33 BCS 2014_Press conference_3rddraft_FV.pptx Source: Business Confidence Survey 2010-2014, Roland Berger analysis
13%19% 18%
30% 23%
27% 26%18%
62%65%
49% 47%55%
7% 6%
6%
2014
3% 3%
5%
2013 2012
5%
2011
3% 3%
2010
0% 3%
4%
Laws and regulations are mostly often regarded as adequate…
Example: The quality of China's written IPR laws and regulations (2010-2014)
Excellent
Adequate
Inadequate
Very inadequate
N./A.
66% 72% 60%
China's written laws
and regulations are
mostly regarded as
adequate, although the
proportion of
companies that regard
them as either
excellent or adequate
is still lower than the
levels in 2010 and 2011.
38 36
EN CN
34 BCS 2014_Press conference_3rddraft_FV.pptx Source: Business Confidence Survey 2010-2014, Roland Berger analysis
…but enforcement is weak
Example: The enforcement of China's written IPR laws and regulations (2010-2014)
Only 18% rated the
enforcement of
China's IPR laws and
regulations as either
excellent or
adequate, which
shows a deterioration
on the levels of 2010
and 2011.
14% 18% 18%27% 22%
21%23% 21%
50%51%
49%46%
43%
22%25%
15% 12%16%
2%
2014 2013
1%
2012
1%
2011
0%
3%
2010
0%
1% Excellent
Adequate
Inadequate
Very inadequate
N./A.
23% 28% 18%
38 36
EN CN
35 BCS 2014_Press conference_3rddraft_FV.pptx Source: Business Confidence Survey 2014, Roland Berger analysis
2014
55%
34%
11%
Foreign companies are treated unfairly
Perceived treatment of foreign-invested companies by the government (2014)
Foreign-invested companies tend to receive favourable treatment compared to domestic Chinese companies
Foreign-invested companies are treated equally
Foreign-invested companies tend to receive unfavourable treatment compared to domestic Chinese companies
55% of companies
believe that they
receive unfavourable
treatment compared
to domestic Chinese
companies
36 34
EN CN
36 BCS 2014_Press conference_3rddraft_FV.pptx Source: Business Confidence Survey 2014, Roland Berger analysis
14%
2014
9%
37%
22%
17%
Market access and regulatory barriers cost member companies EUR 21.3 billion – substantially larger than Estonia's annual GDP
Missed business opportunities in China due to market access and regulatory barriers (2014)
53% 47%
No
10 – 25 %
25 – 50 %
> 50 %
Don't know
< 10 %
Yes
Companies that missed out on opportunities: Amount of missed opportunities:
1 Number was conservatively calculated by considering the amount of missed opportunities and actual revenue
Member companies
missed out on
approximately EUR 21.3
billion1 in business
opportunities due to
market access and
regulatory barriers, which
is the equivalent of 15%
of the EU’s annual
exports to China
39 37
EN CN
37 BCS 2014_Press conference_3rddraft_FV.pptx Source: Business Confidence Survey 2014, Roland Berger analysis
5%
2014
50%
45%
Third Plenum reforms are positive, but uncertainty prevails
Third Plenum Reforms (2014)
Reforms will be good for my company
Unsure
Reforms will not be good for my company
45% of companies
believe that
implementation of reforms
would be good for their
company, although only
half are confident that
the Chinese leadership
will start meaningful
implementation in the
coming one to two years
40 38
EN CN
2014
40%
53%
Yes
Unsure
No 7%
Are you confident that the Chinese leadership will start meaningful implementation of the Third Plenum reforms in the coming one to two years? Companies’ perception of Third Plenum Reforms
38 BCS 2014_Press conference_3rddraft_FV.pptx Source: Business Confidence Survey 2014, Roland Berger analysis
10%
7%
36%
40%
5%
2014
2%
The China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone is a reform in the right direction
Perception of the China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone (2014)
"The opening of the China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone and the Negative List for foreign investment are major steps towards opening up the Chinese market and creating a level playing field."
Strongly agree
Agree
Neutral
Disagree
Strongly disagree
No opinion
45%
45% of companies
believe that the
China (Shanghai)
Pilot Free Trade
Zone is a major
step towards
opening up the
Chinese market
and creating a
level playing field
41 39
EN CN
39 BCS 2014_Press conference_3rddraft_FV.pptx Source: Business Confidence Survey 2014, Roland Berger analysis
70%
26%
4%
2014
However, current reforms still do not yet inspire substantial investment
Impact of Third Plenum reforms on investment plans
More likely to increase investment
Less likely to increase investment
No change
Current reforms do not
stimulate European
companies to make
substantial investments:
on average only one
quarter of companies
stated that they have
revised their investment
plans upwards as a
result of the Third Plenum
reforms.
44 42
EN CN
40 BCS 2014_Press conference_3rddraft_FV.pptx Source: Business Confidence Survey 2014, Roland Berger analysis
3%
42%
55%
2014
Note: Only industries with N>20 are shown
Increased market access would spur a re-intensification of investment
Impact were greater market access to be afforded (2014)
More likely to increase investment
Less likely to increase investment
No change
CHEMICALS & PETROLEUM
FINANCIAL SERVICES (INCL. INSURANCE)
LEGAL
AGRICULTURE, FOOD & BEVERAGE
TRANSPORTATION, LOGISTICS & DISTRIBUTION
AUTOMOTIVE & AUTO COMPONENTS
MEDICAL DEVICES & OTHER HEALTHCARE
(NON-LEGAL) PROFESSIONAL SERVICES
UTILITIES, PRIMARY ENERGY & OTHER COMMODITIES
MACHINERY
63%
63%
62%
61%
58%
54%
53%
50%
50%
39%
44 42
EN CN
41 BCS 2014_Press conference_3rddraft_FV.pptx
G Q & A