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Business Advantage OnA Warming Planet
Jonathan Lash World Resources Institute
Climate Competitiveness with the Auto Industry
Source: World Resources Institute and Sustainable Asset Management
Comparison of Fuel Economy and GHG Emissions Standards
around the World
EU
Canada
US
Japan
Australia
China California
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
MP
G -
Con
vert
ed to
CA
FE
Tes
t C
ycle
0
50
100
150
200
250
Oct
-03
De
c-0
3
Fe
b-0
4
Ap
r-0
4
Jun
-04
Au
g-0
4
Oct
-04
De
c-0
4
Fe
b-0
5
Ap
r-0
5
Jun
-05
Au
g-0
5
Oct
-05
De
c-0
5
Fe
b-0
6
Ap
r-0
6
Sto
ck
Pri
ce
Re
ba
se
d t
o 1
00
ToyotaGeneral Motors
Market begins pricing growth prospects
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Concentrations
270280290300310320330340350360370
1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000
part
s pe
r m
illio
n vo
lum
e
Mauna Loa (1958-present)
Siple Station (1750-)
299 ppmv
Highest in last 420,000 yrs
370 ppmvMost recent
Source: C.D. Keeling and T.P. Whorf, Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations (ppmv) derived from in situ air samples collected at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii, Scripps Institute of Oceanography, August 1998. A. Neftel et al, Historical CO2 Record from the Siple Station Ice Core, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Switzerland, September 1994. See http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/trends/co2/contents.htm
Millennial N. Hemisphere (AD1000-1999)
Source: IPCC TAR
Dramatic Changes: An Ice-free Arctic? 1979-2003:
Progressive Loss of Arctic Ice
1960 – World’s 6th largest lake
1963 – 2001 shrunk 95%, wetlands spoilt
Source: UNEP – ONE PLANET MANY PEOPLE: Atlas of our Changing Environment
Lake Chad
Water withdrawals from rivers/lakes doubled since 1960
The Frequency of Weather Related Disasters
Data from Swiss Re 2005
Global Ocean Currents
U.S.: Emerging State-Level CO2 Regulation
Source: CO2e.com
www.azfoo.net
Projections of CO2 and Temperature to 2100
Temperature Projections and Risk
20552005
14
7
Billion of Tons of Carbon Emitted per Year
1955
0
Currently
projected path
Flat path
Historical emissions
1.9
2105
14 GtC/y
7 GtC/y
Seven “wedges”
Wedges
O
Source: Robert Socolw, www.princeton.edu/~cmi
Energy Efficiency
Coal-based Synfuels with CCS
Wind power
Reforestation
Mass transit
Stabilization Triangle
2004 2054
7 GtC/y
14 GtC/y
Fill the Stabilization Triangle with Seven Wedges
Carbon Capture & Storage
Adapted from:
Robert Socolw, www.princeton.edu/~cmi
Biofuels
ClimateRisk
Sector Level
Company Level
Products / TechnologyLitigation Reputation /
Brand
Political / Regulatory
Supply Chain
Physical Risk
How Climate Risk Influences Corporate Value
August 28, 2005
Photo Credit: NASA/Jeff Schmaltz, MODIS Land Rapid Response Team
Hurricane Katrina
ClimateRisk
Sector Level
Company Level
Products / TechnologyLitigation Reputation /
Brand
Political / Regulatory
Supply Chain
Physical Risk
How Climate Risk Influences Corporate Value
ClimateRisk
Sector Level
Company Level
Products / TechnologyLitigation Reputation /
Brand
Political / Regulatory
Supply Chain
Physical Risk
How Climate Risk Influences Corporate Value
ClimateRisk
Sector Level
Company Level
Products / TechnologyLitigation Reputation /
Brand
Political / Regulatory
Supply Chain
Physical Risk
How Climate Risk Influences Corporate Value
New Patterns of Pest Damage
The New York Times, June 25, 2002
ClimateRisk
Sector Level
Company Level
Products / TechnologyLitigation Reputation /
Brand
Political / Regulatory
Supply Chain
Physical Risk
How Climate Risk Influences Corporate Value
ClimateRisk
Sector Level
Company Level
Products / TechnologyLitigation Reputation /
Brand
Political / Regulatory
Supply Chain
Physical Risk
How Climate Risk Influences Corporate Value
Potential Climate Change Impacts on Cash Flows and Cost of Capital
MeMAC: 4 Steps to Business Advantage
1. Measure - Quantify the Company’s Carbon Footprint
2. Manage - Mitigating Climate Value at Risk
3. Adapt - Use Knowledge Gained to Adapt to Climate Risk
4. Compete - Develop a “Climate Competitive Advantage”
Managing Risk: Measure/Manage
•Alcoa Inc.•Cargill Dow LLC•Delphi Corporation•Dow Chemical Company•DuPont•FedEx Kinko's•General Motors•IBM•Interface•Johnson & Johnson•NatureWorks LLC•Pitney Bowes•Staples•Starbucks
GPMDG
GE: Ecomagination
Producing plastics, for packaging and fibers, from 100% annually renewable resources
• Offset 100% of the company’s net greenhouse gas emissions from polymer production and the world’s largest lactic acid plant
• NatureWorks® PLA is now the world’s first greenhouse-gas neutral polymer
Business case
• 59 million kWh/year of Green-e® certified RECs
• Generated by 22 MW of wind turbines in Great Plains
2005 new green power purchase
Photo courtesy of Sterling PlanetPhoto courtesy of Sterling Planet
Insert photo of PLA Insert photo of PLA productproduct
Interface – GHG’s Down, Returns Up
New York City circa 1950
New York City December 2001
