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Brazil 2016Political outlookEconomic perspectives &Opportunties during the crisis

March 2016

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Topics

2015 background 42016 forecast 7

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Political background 12

Politics

Economics

Infrastructure

Agenda for Growth

Political outlook

Infrastructure background Investment opportunities

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Conclusions 26

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ECONOMICS

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2015: economic background

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GDP

Recession and shrinking economy: Brazil’s Gross Domestic Product contracted 3.8% in 2015.

Brazil continues to be a large economy with huge potential.

The Brazilian economy still figures among the 10 largest in the world, ranking 7 in the International Monetary Fund’s GDP comparison list (2015).

Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook

As a reflex of the economic situation the country has been facing since 2014, recent forecasts released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) show a shift in the ranking, with Brazil falling one position in 2015.

GDP in USD trillion

World GDP Forecasts for the end of 2015

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2015: economic background

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Deficit, inflation and high interest rate

On 2015, inflation hit record level of 10.71%: the highest since 2002 (IBGE);

Central Bank’s last meeting kept annual interest rate at 14.25%.

*Data refers to the period Jan-Aug. 2015.Sources: Economist Intelligence Unit; Reuters; Haver Analytics; Goldman Sachs; Central Bank of Brazil; Valor.

Budget balance as % of GDP Central Bank interest rate and inflation

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2015: economic background

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Wages and jobs

Unemployment, which has long been falling and dipped below 5% for most of 2014, increased to 8.9% in November 2015.

Sources: National Accounts; IBGE; Central Bank of Brazil; The Economist.

Average real wages and GDP Unemployment rate and Gov. spending

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2016: economic forecasts

GDP Forecasts 2016/2017

FOCUS BULLETIN

2016: - 3.54% (contraction)2017: 1.00%

IMF

2016: -3.5% (contraction)2017: 0.00%

MORGAN STANLEY

2016: - 4.3 % (contraction)2017: + 0.6 %

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2016: economic forecasts

Industrial output

Consumer Price Index (IPCA)

FOCUS BULLETIN

2016: - 4.45% (contraction)2017: 0.50 %

REUTERS

2016: - 3.47% (contraction)2017: 1.80%

FOCUS BULLETIN

2016: 7.46 % 2017: 6.50 % 2018: 6.50%

REUTERS

2016: 7.00% 2017: 5.40%

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2016: economic forecasts

Fiscal performance

Fiscal constraints at the federal and state levels will continue in 2016

Budgetary gap 2015/2016 – austerity measures were not enough to balance public accounts : government is looking for other revenue sources (high risk of tax increases)

Labor market

According to the International Labor Organization (ILO), the unemployment rate will reach 7.7% in 2016 and 7.6% in 2017.

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2016: economic forecasts

Currency

2015 background

By the end of 2015, Brazilian real (BRL) figured as the most devaluated currency worldwide when compared to the US dollar (USD);

Devaluation went up to 33.87% (Jan-Dez 2015), surpassing the Argentinian peso (-33.34%), the Colombian peso (-28.61%), and the South African rand (-23.38%), according to Bloomberg;

International slumping commodity prices and the dependence of Brazilian economy on China were among the chief driving forces behind Brazil’s recession;

2016 currency rally

The Brazilian real BRL has surged nearly 10 % since the beginning of March as investors see a potential change in government as the best solution to the worst economic recession in over 30 years.

Other related factors : (i) lower interest rates by the end of 2016; (ii) exports expantion; (iv) foreign direct investment raising; and (iv) infrastructure package.

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POLITICS

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2015: political background

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Getting to the roots of the crisis

Lava Jato / Petrobras corruption probe have undermined the capacity of the government to maintain its political legitimacy.

Political deadlock: no government majority to pass economic reforms coupled with a non-cooperative opposition;

Fractured ruling coalition: PT – PMDB unstable relations. Budgetary constrains related to the fiscal

crisis have frustrated allies in the the office: figurative power and lack of autonomy.

Finance Minister Levy’s economic plan has motivated disagreements between President Rousseff and her political party.

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2015: political background

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Rousseff’s top 5 five political mistakes

Rousseff was slow to recognize the severity of the Car Wash operation.

Changing the Minister of Justice weakened the government. Rousseff distanced herself from PT.

Rousseff failed to understand PMDB

Rousseff aligned herself to Lula

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2016: political outlook

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CURRENT SCENARIO

• About 3.6m people joined dmeonstrations against President Rousseff on March 13th, the largest seen in Brazil.

• The protests have considerably increased the political pressure over Congress, especially on lawmakers that were still neutral.

• Lava Jato has pulled down Rousseff’s protection wall in the Senate as investigations are now targeting PMDB top lawmakers, who now prefer to oppose Rousseff in order to lower the political pressure that could also target them. PMDB likely to withdraw the ruling coalition.

• The lower house speaker will restart the impeachment process this week, after the Supreme Court publishes the final proceeding.

2. Rousseff’s resignation; 3. Electoral Court probe against Rousseff and Temer.

BASIC SCENARIO: impeachment process is likely to start

ALTERNATIVES

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2016: political outlook

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IMPEACHMENT PROCESS

The impeachment committee will be installed this week in the lower house. Its president and rapporteur will be elected.

The committee will have 15 congressional sessions to draft a final report on the “I” request, which is expected to be concluded around mid-April. Next step is the vote by the floor, which will pose great risk for Rousseff.

In order to block the process, Rousseff’s ruling coalition will need 172 votes in the floor (1/3 of the lower house).

Abstentions might affect the final result.

If the floor of the lower house approves the impeachment request, the process goes to the Senate, which might accept the impeachment request by a simple majority (41 out of 81 senators).

Once it is accepted, Rousseff will be judged by the Senate. 2/3 of the votes (54 ) are required to impeach the President.

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2016: political outlook

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POSSIBLE POST-ROUSSEFF SCENARIOS

VP Michel Temer takes office:- PT will oppose the economic reform agenda- Lava Jato probe might target Temer and other PMDB lawmakers

New elections are called:- Political party fragmentation- Lack of new political leaders to address population’s worries

Semi-presidential system is set- Constitutional Reform required- Social unrest and political instability would increase

Risk factors to be neutralized in Q2/2016: the political situation is likely to improve in the second half of the year affected by municipal elections;

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INFRASTRUCTURE

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Infrastructure background

Brazilian Development Bank (BNDES) In March 2016, the government announced it

would make it easier for infrastructure projects to secure financing.

BNDES will simplify the emission of debentures/infrastructure bonds

Estimate: between R$ 6 billion to R$ 10 billion of debentures will be emitted

Percentage of Investment Financed by BNDES

Ports70%

Airports40%

Railways80%

Highways70%

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Infrastructure Investment Opportunities

The Logistics Investment Program (PIL) One of the world’s largest infrastructure programs. Investment opportunities for:

Airports Highways Ports Railways

Upcoming auctions within PIL in 2016 Ports Airports

Other auctions Energy sector (April)

Thermoelectric (biomass and coal) Thermoelectric (natural gas) Wind

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Infrastructure Investment Opportunities

Port Auctions Six areas in the state of Pará

Satarém (1 for grains, 1 for fertilizers) Outeiro (3 for grains) Vila do Conde (1 for grains)

Airport Auctions Predicted for June 2016 Fortaleza, Salvador, Florianópolis and Porto Alegre Previous projects by foreign firms have included:

Internacional Airpot of Rio de Janeiro, Galeão Antonio Carlos Jobim

• Changi Airports

International

(Singapore)

Tancredo Neves Confins Internacional Airport

•Flughafen Zürich AG•Munich Airport International Beteiligungs GMBH (Germany)

Guarulhos International Airport

• ACSA (South Africa)

Viracopos Airport

• Egis Group (Franc

e)21

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AGENDA FOR GROWTH

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Agenda for growth

ICMS reform;

PIS/COFINS unification.

STRUCTURAL REFORMS

PUBLIC EXPENDITURE REFORMS

TAX REFORM

Pension reform

Government Spending Limit (Annual Budget Law)

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Agenda for growth

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Plan for Exports to be implemented;The government is discussing the creation of a line of credit in public banks that consists of financing working capital of exporting companies

Portal Único/ Single Window

Authorized Economic Operator (OEA)

Working capital and rural credit - R$ 10 bi;

Length-of-Service Guarantee Fund (FGTS) and housing credit - R$ 10 bi;

Infrastructure• Capital lines at the BNDES R$ 5 bi;• Manage FGTS assets in order to enact funds for infrastructure - R$ 22 bi;• Re-finance capital goods (Program on Investment Sustainability - PSI, FINAME) with

noadditional costs to the National Treasury, improving the liquidity of the companies - R$ 15 bi;

TRADE

CREDIT RELEASE

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Agenda for growth

Boosting innovation and R&D;Signing of the legal framework of science, technology and innovation

Improving business environment in Brazil (cutting red-tape measures);

Corruption probes are improving public-private transparency and accountability;

Incentives for building and purchasing assets in Brazil;

Committee of Social and Economic Development;Brazilian Chief of Staff Minister, Jaques Wagner, introduced to president Rousseff a list with 92 names of business leaders that shall be part of the Committee, which is also known as “Conselhão”.

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Conclusions

In spite of the economic downturn, Brazilian economy will recover after 2017;

A complex economy and a large domestic market will be the engine for the economic recovery;

Industrial exports will contribute more substantially to the economy after 2017;

Political instability will delay much-needed reforms.

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