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Blue Ridge Association of Realtors
November 3, 2011
The U.S. and Washington AreaEconomic Performance and Outlook
John McClain, Senior FellowCenter for Regional Analysis
School of Public PolicyGeorge Mason University
GDP Percent Change, 1930-2010(Real Dollars)
1930
1945
1948
1951
1954
1957
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
%
Annual Change in Jobs – US1940 - 2010
194019441948195219561960196419681972197619801984198819921996200020042008
-7000
-5000
-3000
-1000
1000
3000
5000THOUSANDS
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 90
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1975-Q11982-Q31991-Q12001-Q42009-Q2
Quarters After Trough
% C
ha
ng
e in
GD
P
Recession Recovery Patterns of GDPPast Five Recessions
Sources: BEA, GMU Center for Regional Analysis,
2007
-1 3
2008
-1 3
2009
-1 3
2010
-1 3
2011
-1 3
2012
-1 3
2013
-1 3
2014
-1-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
U.S. Gross Domestic ProductQuarterly Change: 2007 – 2014
% Forecast > > > > > >
Sep-07
Sep-08
Sep-09
Sep-10
Sep-11
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
MfgN-Mfg
ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Indices
Annual Change in Payroll Jobs - US
Feb-01Sep-01Apr-02Nov-02Jun-03Jan-04Aug-04M
ar-05O
ct-05M
ay-06Dec-06Jul-07Feb-08Sep-08Apr-09Nov-09Jun-10Jan-11
-7000
-5000
-3000
-1000
1000
3000
THOUSANDS
Sep =+ 1.46 M
Source: BLS Establishment Survey, NSA
20
07
20
07
20
07
20
07
20
08
20
08
20
08
20
08
20
09
20
09
20
09
20
09
20
10
20
10
20
10
20
10
20
11
20
11
20
11
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
000s
US Job ChangeMonth-to-Month, Seasonally Adjusted
Sep= 103
Source: BLS
Annual Change in Employed - U.S.
Feb-01Sep-01Apr-02Nov-02Jun-03Jan-04Aug-04M
ar-05O
ct-05M
ay-06Dec-06Jul-07Feb-08Sep-08Apr-09Nov-09Jun-10Jan-11
-8000
-6000
-4000
-2000
0
2000
4000
THOUSANDS
Sep = 787
Source: BLS Household Survey, NSA
20072008
20092010
2011
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
Initial Claims for Unemployment4-Week Moving Average
405
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Feb-0
4
Feb-0
5
Feb-0
6
Feb-0
7
Feb-0
8
Feb-0
9
Feb-1
0
Feb-1
14
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
U.S. Unemployment Rate
Source: BLS, Seasonally Adjusted
Sep = 9.1
%
GI FCST11 – 9.112 – 9.213 – 8.914 – 8.115 – 7.316 – 6.8
U.S. Housing TrendsNew & Existing Home Sales
Sep-07D
ec-07M
ar-08M
ay-08A
ug-08N
ov-08Feb-09M
ay-09A
ug-09N
ov-09Feb-10M
ay-10Jul-10O
ct-10Jan-11A
pr-11Jul-11
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
6000
6500
7000
7500
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Existing(left scale)
New
(Right Scale)
(000s) (000s)
Nov-0
6
Mar
-07
Jul-0
7
Nov-0
7
Mar
-08
Jul-0
8
Nov-0
8
Mar
-09
Jul-0
9
Nov-0
9
Mar
-10
Jul-1
0
Nov-1
0
Mar
-11
Jul-1
196.0
101.0
106.0
111.0
116.0
121.0
L.I.
C.I.
U.S. Coincident and Leading IndicesNov 2006 – Sep 2011
RECESSION >
U.S. Leading Index
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
-6-4-202468
101214
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
U.S. Coincident Index
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Consumer Prices2001 - 2015
Forecast > > > > > >%
Source: BLS, Global Insight
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Fed 30-Yr
Interest Rates2001 - 2015
Forecast > > > > > >
Oil Prices$ per barrel
20042005
20062007
20082009
20102011
20122013
20142015
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
$/barrel
Source: Global Insight
Forecast > > > > > > > >
Consumer Confidence
Sep-07
Sep-08
Sep-09
Sep-10
Sep-11
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
100
Present Situation
Expectations
Source: Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Growth in Total Consumption Outlays
20002002
20042006
20082010
20122014
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
4.7
2.5 2.7 2.83.3 3.4
2.92.3
-0.6
-1.9
2.0 2.1 1.9 1.8 2.02.5
%
Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Forecast > > > > >
U.S. Job Change by SectorSept 2010 – Sept 2011
Information
Federal Govt.
Transp. & Util.
Other Services
Wlse Trade
Construction
Financial
Manufacturing
Leisure & Hosp.
Retail Trade
Prof. & Bus. Svcs
Educ & Health Svcs
State & Local Govt
-600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600
-41
-30
79
64
84
37
-13
196
120
162
561
450
-259
(000s) Total = 1,490
Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Ranked by Size in 2010
U.S. Job Change by SectorAug 2011 – Sept 2011
Information
Federal Govt.
Transp. & Util.
Other Services
Wlse Trade
Construction
Financial
Manufacturing
Leisure & Hosp.
Retail Trade
Prof. & Bus. Svcs
Educ & Health Svcs
State & Local Govt
-100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100
34
-1
-1
-3
-6
26
-8
-13
-4
14
48
45
-33
(000s) Total = 103
Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Ranked by Size in 2010
The Washington Economy
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
Washington MSA Leading Economic IndexMonth-Over-Year Percent Change
12-MonthMoving Average
Aug
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
Washington MSA Coincident Economic IndexMonth-Over-Year Percent Change
12-MonthMoving Average
Aug
1991 1996 2001 2006 2011-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
000s
Annual Job Change – MOTYCWashington MSA
Source: BLS March 2011 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Annual Job ChangeWashington MSA
2002
2004
2006
2008
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
Oct
Dec
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
Oct
Dec
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year
2009 2010 2011
Source: BLS March 2011 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
15 Largest Job MarketsJob Change Sep 2010 – Sep 2011
New York
Los Angeles
Chicago
Dallas
Philadelphia
Houston
Boston
Miam
i
Atlanta
Detroit
SF-Oakland
Minneapolis
Phoenix
Seattle
-100-80-60-40-20
020406080
100(000s)
Washington +8,500
Source: BLS March 2011 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Job Change by SectorSept 2010 – Sept 2011
Washington MSA
Transp. & Util.
Wlse Trade
Manufacturing
Information
Financial
Other Services
Construction
Leisure & Hosp.
Retail Trade
State & Local Govt
Educ & Health Svcs
Federal Govt.
Prof. & Bus. Svcs
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
1
0
-4
-2
5
-4
-5
1
-3
2
3
0
12(000s) Total = 8,500
Source: BLS March 2011 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Annual Job ChangeNorthern Virginia
2002
2004
2006
2008
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
Oct
Dec
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
Oct
Dec
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year
2009 2010 2011
Source: BLS March 2011 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Job Change by SectorSept 2010 – Sept 2011
Northern Virginia
Transp. & Util.
Wlse Trade
Manufacturing
Information
Financial
Other Services
Construction
Leisure & Hosp.
Retail Trade
State & Local Govt
Educ & Health Svcs
Federal Govt.
Prof. & Bus. Svcs
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
-1
0
0
-2
1
-3
1
0
1
2
0
-3
5(000s) Total + 600
Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Sep-04
Sep-05
Sep-06
Sep-07
Sep-08
Sep-09
Sep-10
Sep-11
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
11.0 – DC
9.1 – U.S.
6.3 – SMD6.1 – MSA4.9 - NVA
Unemployment Rate
Source: BLS, Not Seasonally Adjusted
15 Largest Job MarketsRanked by Unemployment Rate
September 2011
Minneapolis
Washington
Boston
Phoenix
New York
Dallas
Philadelphia
Seattle
Houston
SF-Oakland
Chicago
Atlanta
Miam
i
Los Angeles
Detroit
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14%
US 9.1
Source: BLS, NOT Seasonally Adjusted
6.1
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110
2
4
6
8
10
12
ClarkeFrederickWarrenShenandoahVAUS
Unemployment Rate – August Each YearBRAR Counties
%
Housing Market Trends
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
Existing Home SalesWashington MSA
Through September 2011
12-Month Moving Average
Source: RBIntel, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Median House Sales PriceWashington MSA
Source: RBIntel, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
$315,200 Sept 2011
Percent Change in Inventories of Existing Homes
Month-Over-the-Year-Change2000 – 2011, MSA
2000
2000
2000
2001
2001
2002
2002
2002
2003
2003
2004
2004
2005
2005
2005
2006
2006 july
dec
May oc
tM
arA
ug20
10 Jun
Nov Apr
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140Jan-May, 2006 >100 %
Source: RBIntel, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
%
Sep = - 29%
Total Active Listings Per SaleSeptember Each Year
19992000
20012002
20032004
20052006
20072008
20092010
2011
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
LDNFFX
ARL
PW
Source: RBIntel, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Total Active Listings Per SaleSeptember Each Year – Metro Area
19992000
20012002
20032004
20052006
20072008
20092010
2011
0.02.04.06.08.0
10.012.014.016.0
Source: RBIntel, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Average Sales Price Percent ChangeWashington MSA
All Housing Types
20002002
20042006
2008Apr
OctApr
OctApr
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
6
111414
2022
20
-16
-24-26
-20-18
-14
-10-9-7
0
-4
3
96 6
46
5 47
54
8 9
2 2 13
13 4
-1
1 2
%
Source: RBIntel, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Annual Change Annual Change by Month
2009 2010 2011
Average Sales Price Percent ChangeNorthern Virginia
All Housing Types
20002002
20042006
2008Apr
OctApr
OctApr
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
5
101414
2223
1
-2
-25-28-28
-22-19
-12
-8
-2 -1
9
5
11
1519
161716
12119 9
61010
40
62
4 4 6
0
3
7
%
Source: RBIntel, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Annual Change Annual Change by Month
2009 2010 2011
20002001
20022003
20042005
20062007
20082009
20102011
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
Washington MSABuilding Permits
2000 – 2011, 3-Month Mvg Avg
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Center for Regional Analysis
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
Blue Ridge Association of Realtors RegionMedian Sales Price – Sept Each Year$
Source: RBIntel, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Blue Ridge Association of Realtors RegionSales – Sept Each Year
Source: RBIntel, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
Blue Ridge Association of Realtors RegionListings – Sept Each Year
Source: RBIntel, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Employment Change bySub-state Region (000s)
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
D.C. 10.1 -2.2 9.5 3.3 5.7 8.6 9.3 9.8
Sub. MD -3.3 -25.1 -5.9 4.6 7.5 11.3 14.1 16.2
No. VA 6.1 -23.0 8.7 15.7 17.1 19.6 21.5 22.1
REGION 12.9 -50.3 11.3 23.6 30.3 39.5 44.9 48.1
Average Annual Change 1990-2010 = 36,000
Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, 2009-2014 based on 2010 Benchmark data from BLS, Revised 8/26/11
• Debt Ceiling Resolution & Federal Budget• Housing Market
– Foreclosures– Fannie and Freddie– Home Ownership
• Corporate Earnings• Jobs
OUTLOOK - Factors
2007
-1 3
2008
-1 3
2009
-1 3
2010
-1 3
2011
-1 3
2012
-1 3
2013
-1 3
2014
-1-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
U.S. Gross Domestic ProductQuarterly Change: 2007 – 2014
% Forecast > > > > > >
Source: IHS Global Insight
CRA.GMU.EDU