3PL Summit, 2009 in Brussels3PL Summit, 2009 in BrusselsManaging the DownturnNovember 2009

Business cycleBusiness cycle

Entering the recessionEntering the recession

Managing the curveManaging the curve

Accelerating out of the curveAccelerating out of the curve

What are we learning?What are we learning?

ContentContent

What are we learning?What are we learning?

The four parts of a The four parts of a

business cyclebusiness cycle

Business Cycle

Business

Expan-sion

Slow-down

An entire cycle generally

lasts from 2 to 10 years

Source: NY Times and OECD

Business

Cycle

Down-turn

Reco-very

Business cycleBusiness cycle

Entering the recessionEntering the recession

Managing the curveManaging the curve

Accelerating out of the curveAccelerating out of the curve

What are we learning?What are we learning?

ContentContent

What are we learning?What are we learning?

Entering the recession

� Set up of the company

— Investment strategy

— Lifecycle stage

— Business portfolio (Geographic,

Industries, Customers, Suppliers)Industries, Customers, Suppliers)

� Early Identification & Planning

— Lookout for signs of downturn

— Planning “what if” scenarios

— Know the conditions and apply the

right amount of “brakes”

Business cycleBusiness cycle

Entering the recessionEntering the recession

Managing the curveManaging the curve

Accelerating out of the curveAccelerating out of the curve

What are we learning?What are we learning?

ContentContent

What are we learning?What are we learning?

Managing the curve

� Recognize the signs early enough

� Have a Comprehensive Plan

—Plan for worst case scenario

—Systematic communication approach

—Boost the people

� Work with government and labor organizations� Work with government and labor organizations

—Implement flexible working hours

—Short-time work

—Avoid redundancies now /

and re-training costs later

� Be with your customers

� Competitors hyper-aggressive

� Resist the inward focus

Government

Agility Employee

Business cycleBusiness cycle

Entering the recessionEntering the recession

Managing the curveManaging the curve

Accelerating out of the curveAccelerating out of the curve

What are we learning?What are we learning?

ContentContent

What are we learning?What are we learning?

Accelerating out of the curve

“Even though from a technical perspective the recession is very likely over at this point, it’s still going to feel like a very weak economy for some

time,” FED Chairman Ben S. Bernanke

“The world economy is stabilizing, helped by unprecedented macroeconomic and financial policy support. However, the recession is not over and the recovery is likely to be sluggish.” IMF World Economic Outlook Update

Business cycleBusiness cycle

Entering the recessionEntering the recession

Managing the curveManaging the curve

Accelerating out of the curveAccelerating out of the curve

What are we learning?What are we learning?

ContentContent

What are we learning?What are we learning?

What are we learning from this and prior crises?

� Keep strategic initiatives going

— Focus on long term profitability and growth

— Avoid short term thinking

� Keep balanced portfolio with diversified exposure to the various industry sectors

� Close cooperation with customers and � Close cooperation with customers and suppliers is essential

� Work with governments and labor representatives to find innovative solutions

� Prepare for the next one!

— Analyze what worked and what didn’t

— Know what “car” you are driving

— Management is art, not science

Thank you for your timeThank you for your time

Beat Simon CEO Agility Europe

St. Jakobsstrasse 220

4002 Basel

Switzerland

www.agilitylogistics.com