44
Damien Buchet, CFA – Head of Emerging Markets Fixed Income Iva Alexandrova – Emerging Markets Portfolio Manager Magda Branet, CFA – Emerging Markets Portfolio Manager Shiv Chopra, CFA – EM Portfolio Manager / Portfolio Engineer AXA WF Emerging Markets Short Duration Bonds October 17-18, 2013 This presentation is for professional advisers only and must not be relied upon by retail clients. Circulation must be restricted accordingly.

Axa emsd citywire miami oct 17 18 2013

Embed Size (px)

DESCRIPTION

 

Citation preview

Page 1: Axa emsd citywire miami oct 17 18 2013

Damien Buchet, CFA – Head of Emerging Markets Fixed IncomeIva Alexandrova – Emerging Markets Portfolio Manager

Magda Branet, CFA – Emerging Markets Portfolio ManagerShiv Chopra, CFA – EM Portfolio Manager / Portfolio Engineer

AXA WF Emerging Markets Short Duration Bonds

October 17-18, 2013

This presentation is for professional advisers only and must not be relied upon by retail clients. Circulation must be restricted accordingly.

Page 2: Axa emsd citywire miami oct 17 18 2013

AXA WF Emerging Markets Short Duration Bonds

Emerging Markets expertise at AXA Fixed Income

Emerging Markets Macro and Markets Snapshot

AXA WF Emerging Market Short Duration bonds : Investment concept

Portfolio performance & Analysis

Reference material

2

Page 3: Axa emsd citywire miami oct 17 18 2013

Emerging Markets expertise at AXA Fixed Income

Page 4: Axa emsd citywire miami oct 17 18 2013

Our management style Active and collegial, with a team-based approach to investment decision

making Focussed on downside protection and income generation Robust blend of top-down and bottom-up analysis

Our investment process A strong top-down approach, where optimal portfolio construction is the

main driver of performance “Portfolio Manager Analyst” model ensures reactivity and ownership

throughout bottom-up credit selection

Why AXA Fixed Income We combine the benefits of a stable, global organisation with multi-local

knowledge and expertise Our investment process aims to achieve incremental, repeatable

outperformance within a robust risk control framework Our wide range of expertise will allow us to work together to choose

optimal strategies corresponding to your evolving constraints and the ever changing market environment

Fixed Income AUM (€bn)

Our solutions

Yield enhancement in an environment of very low yields

Protection against the downside risk of interest rates

Diversification within fixed income where appropriate

Low-turnover, fundamentally-driven credit strategy exempt from the flaws of traditional passive management

Source: AXA IM 30/06/2013.

Introduction to AXA Fixed Income

€391bn fixed income assets 100 investment professionals

Your challenges

Credit (Investment Grade & HY), Emerging Markets, Global Strategic Bonds

Suite of Short Duration funds (Credit, HY, EMD), “Redex” share classes

Universal Inflation, Local Currency EMD, High Yield, Global Strategic Bonds, Regional Credit

SmartBeta Credit strategyTM

4

158173

221 218 225

273 283

322 330342

371391

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Jun-13

Page 5: Axa emsd citywire miami oct 17 18 2013

5

Source: AXA IM. Staff data as at 31/07/2013. AUM data as at 30/06/2013. Figures in parentheses denote years within the AXA Group followed by total years industry experience. *Shiv also belongs to the Portfolio Engineering Team and is the specialist Portfolio Engineer for the EM/Asia Team.

Damien Buchet, CFA (3/21)Head of Emerging Markets

Chris IggoCIO, Global Fixed Income

Paris

Iva Alexandrova (6/13)Portfolio Manager/Analyst

Emerging & Asian MarketsParis, Singapore

Singapore

Alvin Ong, CFA (1/4)Portfolio Manager/Analyst

Su Hwei Tee (3/13)Senior Credit Analyst

Magda Branet, CFA (8/8)Portfolio Manager/Analyst

Theo ZemekGlobal Head of Fixed Income

EMERGING MARKETS FIXED INCOME TEAM

7 PM Analysts / 13 years of average industry experience

• 2 Investment centres in Paris and Singapore• 6 nationalities, 4 CFA charter holders.• Sovereign and corporate credit research: 45 countries & 350 corporates covering 90% of the EM credit investment universe• €2.4bn in EM fixed income assets managed across all EM sub-asset classes (hard and local currency, sovereign and corporate credits)• A range of benchmarked and total return funds and mandates.

GLOBAL FIXED INCOME GROUP

€391bn Fixed Income AUM / 100 Investment professionals

• A unique top-down process, integrating all fixed income expertises• Substantial shared resources and synergies among teams.

EM TRADING AND EXECUTION 3 experienced Emerging Markets traders based in London

PORTFOLIO ENGINEERING GROUP11 Portfolio Engineers; one dedicated to Emerging Markets

RESEARCH AND INVESTMENT STRATEGY TEAM11 economists and strategists; two Emerging Markets specialists:

• Based in Paris: Emerging Markets Economist• Based in Hong Kong: China & Emerging Asia economistShiv Chopra, CFA (2/7)

EM Portfolio Enegineer/PM Analyst*

Emerging Markets Fixed Income at AXA IM

Rob Andrew (<1/18)Head of Fixed Income Asia

Experienced team with global resources

Page 6: Axa emsd citywire miami oct 17 18 2013

6

Our Emerging Markets investment philosophy

ConvictionsConvictions Management StyleManagement Style

We have a “Total Return” Bias

We are “Top-Down” Investors

We are Risk Managers

Our portfolios aim to deliver an optimal Yield-Liquidity-Volatility profile throughout the market cycle

Portfolio Construction follows a two-dimensional “Top-down” scale, considering both Fundamental and

Technical issues

Country research, corporate credit analysis and risk monitoring are central to our Investment Process

Fixed income assets provide the opportunity for income generation and offer relative capital preservation

Page 7: Axa emsd citywire miami oct 17 18 2013

AXA IM EM Fixed Income Funds : Risk/Return Profile

Our Emerging Markets product range

7

INVESTMENT AIMS

Better transparency on expected returns and low volatility => AXA WF Emerging Markets Short Duration Bonds

Optimal and balanced risk/return profile from EM USD credits => AXA WF Global Emerging markets Bonds

Strong capital gain potential from undervalued EM currencies => AXA WF Emerging Markets Local currency Bonds

An EM tool box for a variety of risk/return profiles

Medium Carry : 5.5%Short Duration : <3yHigher Credit Risk (BB Average rating)

High Carry : 6%Long Duration : 7yMedium Credit Risk (BBB‐ Average rating)

High Carry : 6.5%Medium Duration : 5yLower Credit Risk (BBB+ Average rating)

Source: AXA IM as at 31/05/2013. Return and Volatility are shown for the I Acc USD shareclass gross of fees over 1 year, except AXA WF Emerging Markets Short Duration Bonds which is shown since inception (05/09/2012). Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is no guarantee that the objectives of the investment strategy described herein will be achieved.

Page 8: Axa emsd citywire miami oct 17 18 2013

EM Macro and Markets : making sense of the recent meltdown

Page 9: Axa emsd citywire miami oct 17 18 2013

9

Worst meltdown since 2008 for EM fixed Income, now on the mend?

Source : Bloomberg as at 02/10//2013. JPGCCOMP= JP Morgan EMBIG Div Index (Sovereign USD) / JCBBCOMP = JP Morgan Corporate EMBI Global Index (Corporate Credits in USD) / JGENVUUG = JPM GBI EM Global div Index (EM Local Currency Bonds)

Page 10: Axa emsd citywire miami oct 17 18 2013

US 10Y Yields : Navigating through tapering, US Gov Shutdown, FED succession.

Source: Bloomberg as at 01/10/2013.

Page 11: Axa emsd citywire miami oct 17 18 2013

11

EM Fixed Income Fund Flows: Closer to the end or to the beginning?

11

Source: EPFR, Morgan Stanley, as at 04/10/2013

Weekly fund flows into EM fixed income Funds (USD bn)

Page 12: Axa emsd citywire miami oct 17 18 2013

Currency Weakness : explained by fundamentals and/or positionning

12

Geared to US/JP/EU recovery : North Asia and Central Europe

No CAD* problems, some short term growth and/or positioning issues.

Portfolio positioning issues + CAD* deterioration, but, varying GDP models and no external debt issues.

Source : Bloomberg as at Aug. 30th, 2013 . * : CAD = Current Account Deficit

Page 13: Axa emsd citywire miami oct 17 18 2013

1313

EM Cyclical Indicators* : Improving growth momentum, low risk appetite

Source: AXA IM Research & Investment Strategy. The EM Economic Cycle Indicator is built using a set of high frequency cyclical data for 13 EM countries (Brazil, Chile, Mexico, Czech Republic,Poland, Hungary, Russia, Turkey, China, India, Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia). The EM Liquidity and Risk Appetite indicator uses a set of variables representative of global risk and liquidity trends (VIX, cross currency spreads, equity markets, etc).

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1

Leve

l

Acceleration

EM Economic Cycle Indicator

SLOWDOWN Above long‐term average and  decreasing EXPANSION Above long‐term average and  increasing

CONTRACTION Below long‐term average and  decreasing

RECOVERY Below long‐term average and  increasing

Feb '08

August '13

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

-0.05 -0.03 -0.01 0.01 0.03 0.05

Leve

lAcceleration

EM Liquidity/Risk Appetite Cycle Indicator

SLOWDOWN Above long‐term average and  decreasing

EXPANSION Above long‐term average and  increasing

CONTRACTION Below long‐term average and  decreasing

RECOVERY Below long‐term average and  increasing

September '13

C

February '08

Page 14: Axa emsd citywire miami oct 17 18 2013

14

G3-induced global trade rebound to lift EM manufactured exports

Source: AXA IM Research & Investment Strategy as at Oct. 1st, 2013

Page 15: Axa emsd citywire miami oct 17 18 2013

15

-16 -14 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2

PHMXPEMYBRTHKZRUHUIN

ZAVZTRUAID

Source: IMF, Citigroup, national central banks, Haver Analytics. As at August 2013 *Uses foreign exchange reserves minus gold where available, measured in US$ / Morgan Stanley

An Income Statement issue, not a Balance Sheet problem

FX reserves change as % of GDP on April-July 2013

Source: Morgan StanleySource: Citigroup

Page 16: Axa emsd citywire miami oct 17 18 2013

16

Fiscal house is in order, but needs some consolidation at the margin

Source : IMF and AXA IM Research

CZ

HK KR

SG

BR

CL

CN CO

EGHU

IN

ID

MY

MX PH

PL

RU

ZATH TR

UA

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-6 -4 -2 0 2 4

Pu

blic

de

bt

% o

f G

DP

Cyclically adjusted primary balance % of GDP

Fiscal space in emerging economies, 2013

Fiscalstability boundary

ttt pbgrDD )(1

Dt= Debt ratio at time t (Debt/GDP)r =interest rate on debtg =nominal growth rate of the economypbt=primary balance at time t (budget balance excluding interest payments) in % of GDP

Sovereign Debt Dynamics Formula

Page 17: Axa emsd citywire miami oct 17 18 2013

17

Emerging Markets contribution to global growth remains outstanding……but will need a fresh wave of reforms over the next 2-5 years

Global Real GDP growth, %

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

Recession shading DM Contribution EM Contribution Period Average

MS Fcast

Source: IMF, Morgan Stanley Research forecasts

Page 18: Axa emsd citywire miami oct 17 18 2013

AXA WF Emerging Market Short Duration Bonds

Page 19: Axa emsd citywire miami oct 17 18 2013

19

AWF Emerging Markets Short Duration : very resilient in the meltdown

Source : Bloomberg as at 01/10/13. AWEMIUA = AWF EMSD Fund I USD Share Class (White line) / JPGCCOMP= JP Morgan EMBIG Div Index (Sovereign USD –Orange line)) / JGENVUUG = JPM GBI EM Global div Index (EM Local Currency Bonds – Yellow line)

Page 20: Axa emsd citywire miami oct 17 18 2013

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Historical market annualised return* (31/12/2001 to 31/12/2012)

Income Return*

Price Return*

Total ReturnTotal Return

Income ReturnIncome Return

Price ReturnPrice Return

8.50%

7.32%

1.13%

Historically, a focus on income pays off

Income stream drives long-term returns in EM Fixed Income

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

20

Source: AXA IM / JP Morgan as at 31/12/2012. *Composite of 1-5 year maturity buckets for 60% CEMBI Broad and 40% EMBIG Diversified. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. No assurances can be made that profits will be achieved or that substantial losses will not be incurred.

Page 21: Axa emsd citywire miami oct 17 18 2013

21

5.3% Yield to Worst, for a 2.6 years Average Duration and a BB average rating

A “Total Return” approach without reference to a market Index

Focus on the delivery of an optimal risk-return profile along the market cycle. No market timing.

Expected annualized volatility in normal market conditions: 2 to 4%

Exposure to Sovereign and Corporate Credits, both Investment Grade and High Yield

Investment across entire EM Credit spectrum over 45 countries reduces default correlation risk

Emerging Markets Short Duration Credit Universe: $532bn outstanding, 740 bonds, 335 issuers*

Portfolio performance is mostly driven by carry and reinvested coupons.

Capital gain potential from a tactical allocation to local currency bonds (15% maximum)

Average portfolio duration to worst of less than 3 years

A set of clear and transparent Internal Investment Guidelines

Intensive coverage of 45 countries and 350 corporates (90% of outstanding) by the EM team

AXA WF Emerging Markets Short Duration BondsInvestment concept

Attractive Risk-Return Proposal

Large opportunity set

Clear performance drivers

Research and risk management

Source: AXA-IM as at 31/08/2013. Data is unaudited and sourced from our front office portfolio management system, ThinkFolio®. Please note that the yield calculations are based on the portfolio of assets and may NOT be representative of what clients invested in the fund may receive as a distribution yield. *As at 10/12/2012. The description set forth above represents investment and risk objectives only. No representation is made that the Fund will achieve such objectives. Yield figures quoted will vary in the future and are not guaranteed. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. There is no guarantee that the objectives of the investment strategy described herein will be achieved.

Page 22: Axa emsd citywire miami oct 17 18 2013

22

Investment universe and strategy capacity

Investment policy is to cap maximum holding of a bond to 5% of its outstanding Minimum issue size considered for investments is USD 150 million. This policy allows for a 3-5 day average disposal period for most bonds in normal

market conditions. Strategy capacity currently estimated to be around $4-5bn with 120-150 holdings Fast expansion of the investment universe will allow this capacity to increase

4 to 5bn USD

Strategy Capacity

Emerging Markets Short Duration credit investment universe Number of Bonds Number of issuers Outstanding ($bn)

Overall EM Credit Universe 1723 (1274 Corps) 677 (579 Corps) 1376.3 (786 Corps)

Less than 3Y maturity – outs > $150m 342 (242 Corps) 130 (102 Corps) 260 (154 Corps)

Less than 5Y maturity – outs > $150m 740 (574 Corps) 335 (287 Corps) 532 (342 Corps)

Less than 8Y maturity – outs > $150m 1061 (801 Corps) 441 (376 Corps) 835 (511 Corps)

A deep and diversified EM short duration universeSource: AXA IM EM database as at 10/12/2012. Corps: Corporations. There is no guarantee that the objectives of the investment strategy described herein will be achieved.

Page 23: Axa emsd citywire miami oct 17 18 2013

23

An expanding short duration investment universe

Net issuance of EM corporate debt is expected to remain around $100-150bn per annum over the next few years, with about 70-100 new issuers every year.

The current stock is expected to rise every year up to 2018, with an increasing proportion of high yield (30 to 50%)

Future supply will likely target the 2018-2021 maturities, to enter the “Short Duration” universe in future years

Source: JP Morgan as at 26/09/2013

Expanding universe will enhance the likely capacity of the strategy

Annual EM Corporate Credit Maturities ($ bn)*

Page 24: Axa emsd citywire miami oct 17 18 2013

24

Emerging Markets default risk

S&P 12-month speculating default rates since 1997 (%)*

Default rates in Emerging Markets are generally lower than for developed markets over the long run

Defaults peaks in Emerging Markets are often linked to specific sovereign crises rather than systemic

Properly addressing the sovereign risk dimension remains key in avoiding defaults

Source: *Standard & Poor’s Global Fixed Income Research and Standard & Poor’s CreditPro as at 31/12/2012, **JP Morgan as at 30/09/2013; includes distressed exchanges.

Emerging Markets defaults since 2011**

Lower systemic default risk than in developed markets

Russian Crisis Argentinean CrisisDubai IncKazahk Banks

Year Issuer Country Region

2011

RTM Group Russia EM EuropeSaska Czech Republic EM Europe

Cap Cana Dominican Republic Latin AmericaSatmex Mexico Latin America

Trump Ocean Club Panama Latin America

2012

Davomas Indonesia AsiaTitan petrochemicals China Asia

Sino Forest China AsiaBLT Indonesia Asia

BTAS Kazakhstan EM EuropeCELPA Brazil Latin America

Banco Cruzeiro do Sul Brazil Latin AmericaNew Reclamtion Group South Africa MENA

Rede Brazil Latin AmericaSu Casita Mexico Latin America

2013

Axtel Mexico Latin AmericaCEDC Russia EM EuropeUrbi Mexico Latin America

Corporation GEO Mexico Latin AmericaLupatech Brazil Latin AmericaHomex Mexico Latin America

Maxcom Mexico Latin AmericaMagyar Telecom Hungary EM Europe

Page 25: Axa emsd citywire miami oct 17 18 2013

25

EM HY companies are less leveraged their US peers

Emerging Markets vs. US creditsHigher yields for a lower credit risk

EM corporate issuers enjoy a lower leverage and higher credit spreads at each S&P rating level

Source : BofA Merrill credit indexes, AXA-IM as at 02/10/2013

Source: BofA, September 2013

EM Corporates enjoy higher credit spreads than similarly rated US peers

A

BBBIG

BB

B

CCC

HY

A

BBB

IG

BB

B

HY

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0

Spre

ad (b

ps)

Duration (yrs)

US EM

Page 26: Axa emsd citywire miami oct 17 18 2013

Portfolio Analysis & Performance

Page 27: Axa emsd citywire miami oct 17 18 2013

0.67%

2.25%

1.40% 1.40% 1.34%

0.0%

0.4%

0.8%

1.2%

1.6%

2.0%

2.4%

Nigerian Naira Mexican Peso Polish Zloty Brazilian Real PhilippinesPeso

Cash7% 0‐1 Years

6%

1‐3 Years31%

3‐5 Years43%

5‐8 Years13%

7%11%

66%

13%

3% <1%0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Cash Sovereign &Quasi Sovereign

Non‐financialsCorporate

Financials Sovereign &Quasi Sovereign

Non‐financialsCorporate

Hard Currency Local Currency

Source: AXA IM at 30/09/2013. *Yield and duration calculations include cash held within the portfolio, use the next-call method for all Financials in the portfolio and duration/yield-to-worst for all other holdings.**ML Lvl 2 breakdown. All breakdowns exclude currency forwards. Data is unaudited and sourced from our front office portfolio management system, ThinkFolio®. Please note that the yield calculations are based on the portfolio of assets and may NOT be representative of what clients invested in the fund may receive as a distribution yield. Yield figures are not guaranteed and will change in the future. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is no guarantee that the objectives of the investment strategy described herein will be achieved.

Local currency exposure

Fund breakdown by sector**

Fund breakdown by maturity

Portfolio Analysis

27

Key characteristics

Size $696.5m

Yield* 5.26%

Duration* 2.64 years

Average maturity 3.17 years

Average rating BB

Cash position 6.9%

EM local currency risk exposure 7.1%

Number of holdings 124

Investment in Sovereign & Corporate credits with a tactical local currency exposure

Page 28: Axa emsd citywire miami oct 17 18 2013

Cash7% A

1%

BBB24%

BB35%

B31%

CCC2%

0.02

0.55

1.42

0.59

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

0‐1 year 1‐3 years 3‐5 years 5‐8 years

28

Source: AXA IM as at 30/09/2013. *ML lvl 2 for Sovereign & Quasi Sovereign, ML lvl 3 for remainder of fund. **Rating is the worst of S&P, Moody’s and Fitch. All breakdowns exclude currency forwards except local currency exposure. Data is unaudited and sourced from our front office portfolio management system, ThinkFolio®. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is no guarantee that the objectives of the investment strategy described herein will be achieved.

Portfolio Analysis

Local Currency exposure

Spread Duration Contribution by Maturity Bucket

Fund breakdown by sector*

Fund breakdown by Rating**

14% 14%13% 13%

10%

7% 7%

4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 2%1% 1%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

Sovereign & Quasi

Sovereign

Real Estate

Basic

 Industry

Energy

Banking

Utility

Cash

Cons. N

on‐Cyclical

Telecommunications

Capital G

oods

Consum

er Cyclical

Services

Financial Services

Med

ia

Automotive

6.6%7.8%

1.1%

9.4%

7.8%

3.6%

1.7%

5.9%

3.5%

1.2% 1.2% 1.6%

7.1%

0%

5%

10%

15%

Sep‐12

Oct‐12

Nov

‐12

Dec‐12

Jan‐13

Feb‐13

Mar‐13

Apr‐13

May‐13

Jun‐13

Jul‐1

3

Aug‐13

Sep‐13

Page 29: Axa emsd citywire miami oct 17 18 2013

‐6%‐5%‐4%‐3%‐2%‐1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%10%11%12%13%

Hard Currency  Sovereign &  Quasi Sovereign Local Currency  Sovereign &  Quasi Sovereign Hard Currency  Corporates

Local Currency  Corporates Cash FX

Portfolio Net Exposure

29

Source: AXA IM as at 30/09/2013. Data is unaudited and sourced from our front office portfolio management system, ThinkFolio®. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is no guarantee that the objectives of the investment strategy described herein will be achieved.

Country risk exposure

Investment across over 35 countries reduces default correlation risk

Page 30: Axa emsd citywire miami oct 17 18 2013

30

Top 10 holdings

Top 10 Holdings (% of fund)

Source: AXA IM as at 30/09/2013. *Rating is the worst of S&P, Moody’s and Fitch. Data is unaudited and sourced from our front office portfolio management system, ThinkFolio®. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is no guarantee that the objectives of the investment strategy described herein will be achieved.

Description % Rating*

Dominican Republic International Bond 9.04 01/23/18 1.45% B

Afren 11 1/2 02/01/16 1.32% B+

Country Garden Holdings 10 1/2 08/11/15 1.31% BB-

Kuwait Projects Co 8 7/8 10/17/16 1.30% BBB-

Vedanta Resources Plc 6 3/4 06/07/16 1.30% BB-

Israel Electric Corp 6.7 02/10/17 1.26% BB+

Emaar Sukuk 8 1/2 08/03/16 1.25% B+

Republic Of Angola 7 08/16/19 1.22% BB-

Dubai Holding Commercial Operations Mtn 4 3/4 01/30/14 1.22% B

Cemex Sab De Cv 9 01/11/18 1.20% B

Page 31: Axa emsd citywire miami oct 17 18 2013

31

Performance and growth in assets under management

Cumulative Performance* Growth in AUM

Source: AXA IM as at 30/09/2013. *Performance is calculated using close prices, rebased to 100, net of management fees, for I Acc USD shareclass since launch on 06/09/2012. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. No assurances can be made that profits will be achieved or that substantial losses will not be incurred.

A resilient investment proposal in the recent EM fixed Income market correction

In its first year the fund has grown to nearly $700m and returned +5% despite the recent EM market sell-off.

Page 32: Axa emsd citywire miami oct 17 18 2013

32

Monthly Gross Performance Attribution in bp since Oct. 1st, 2012.

Source: AXA IM Portfolio Engineering Group as at 30/09/2013. Gross performance as per the calculations of the Portfolio Engineering Team. Indicative only. The above figures may differ from official performance figures given system constraints and potential differences in market data sources. Performance attribution from FX does not include carry. The Nigerian Naira performance is not supported by our systems, hence is not included here. For illustrative purposes only.

Cumulative Monthly Gross Performance Attribution Analysis in bp since 01/10/12

Page 33: Axa emsd citywire miami oct 17 18 2013

Investment information

33

Investment objective & strategyInvestment objective To seek performance by investing mainly in short duration debt securities issued in

the emerging debt universe in USD over a medium term period.

Investment universe Transferable debt securities issued by emerging countries governments, corporations, public or private companies and supranational entities. The Fund may invest up to 15% of its assets in bonds in local currency

Investment horizon Three years

Investment team Damien Buchet, CFA, Iva Alexandrova and Magda Branet, CFA (portfolio managers)

Fund structure Luxembourg SICAV

Launch date 06 September 2012

Institutional shareclasses Retail shareclassesInitial Charge None (I) / 2% (F) 3% (A) / None (E)

Annual Management Charge 0.55% (I) / 0.75% (F) 1.00%

Minimum initial investment* $5,000,000 (I) / $500,000 (F) None**

Minimum subsequent investment* $1,000,000 (I) / $10,000 (F) None

Currencies Available EUR, USD, GBP, CHF (I) / EUR, USD (F) EUR, USD, GBP, CHF (A) / EUR (E)

Hedged shareclass availability Yes Yes

Source: AXA IM. *Subscriptions in USD or the equivalent in the relevant currency of the relevant class. **Minimum initial investment for A GBP (H) shareclass is $5,000 (or equivalent in the relevant currency of the relevant shareclass). There is no guarantee that the objectives of the investment strategy described herein will be achieved.

Page 34: Axa emsd citywire miami oct 17 18 2013

Appendix

Page 35: Axa emsd citywire miami oct 17 18 2013

35

JPM EMBI Global spreads : around the middle of the 5 year range

Source: Bloomberg as at 30/09/2013.JP Morgan EMBIG Diversified Sovereign hard currency index.

Page 36: Axa emsd citywire miami oct 17 18 2013

3636

Value opportunity : EM Hard Currency Spreads retracement since 08/05/13

Source: AXA IM as at 02/10/2013; Bloomberg; JP Morgan Indexes. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Country/Sector Type Now 08/05/2013 Difference Ratio Vs Histo

Pakistan Sov 638 747 -109 85.4%Argentina Sov 1,029 1,203 -174 85.5%Saudi Arabia Corp Corp 109 120 -11 90.7%Mexico Corp Corp 301 327 -25 92.3%S.Korea Corp Corp 190 203 -13 93.4%Egypt Sov 533 569 -36 93.7%Taiwan Corp Corp 162 170 -9 95.0%Jamaica Sov 640 671 -31 95.4%HK Corp Corp 273 283 -10 96.5%Ecuador Sov 627 642 -15 97.7%Qatar Corp Corp 195 199 -3 98.4%Jamaica Corp Corp 546 549 -3 99.5%Lebanon Sov 441 435 6 101.4%Bulgaria Sov 69 68 1 101.5%Hungary Sov 327 320 7 102.2%Russia Corp Corp 381 366 15 104.1%Iraq Sov 522 501 21 104.2%China Corp Corp 394 375 18 104.9%Romania Sov 233 221 12 105.4%Venezuela Corp Corp 1,279 1,213 67 105.5%Ivory Coast Sov 480 448 32 107.1%Malaysia Corp Corp 265 243 21 108.8%Philippines Corp Corp 460 422 38 109.1%UAE Corp Corp 250 228 22 109.7%CEMBI HY Corp index 569 516 53 110.3%CEMBI HG Corp index 280 252 27 110.9%Singapore Corp Corp 259 234 25 110.9%CEMBI Broad Corp Index 365 329 36 111.1%Belize Sov 872 768 104 113.5%Kazakhstan Sov 286 251 35 113.9%Kuwait Corp Corp 398 345 53 115.2%El Salvador Sov 408 351 57 116.2%China Sov 175 150 25 116.7%Lithuania Sov 165 140 25 117.9%KZ Corp Corp 776 657 119 118.1%Israel Corp Corp 250 210 40 119.3%Brazil Corp Corp 427 356 71 119.9%

Spreads

Country/Sector Type Now 08/05/2013 Difference Ratio Vs Histo

Peru Corp Corp 340 284 57 120.0%Dominican Republic Sov 429 357 72 120.2%Chile Corp Corp 363 297 66 122.3%India Corp Corp 379 307 72 123.5%Poland Sov 147 118 29 124.6%Chile Sov 167 134 33 124.6%Russia Sov 221 177 44 124.9%JP EMBIG DIV BMK Sov Index 339 270 69 125.4%Indonesia Corp Corp 718 568 149 126.3%Nigeria Sov 341 270 71 126.3%Nigeria Sov 341 270 71 126.3%Georgia Sov 416 328 88 126.8%Egypt Corp Corp 301 237 64 126.9%Colombia Corp Corp 356 278 77 127.8%Serbia Sov 420 327 93 128.4%Mexico Sov 209 161 48 129.8%Croatia Sov 370 284 86 130.3%Venezuela Sov 1,076 819 257 131.4%South Africa Corp Corp 450 342 108 131.7%Philippines Sov 172 129 43 133.3%Malaysia Sov 152 113 39 134.5%Sri Lanka Sov 464 342 122 135.7%Ghana Sov 554 407 147 136.1%Uruguay Sov 198 145 53 136.6%Viet nam Sov 320 233 87 137.3%Senegal Sov 558 403 155 138.5%EMBIG Div IG SpreadSov Index 221 159 62 138.7%EMBIG Div HY SpreadSov Index 614 428 187 143.7%Brazil Sov 241 166 75 145.2%Peru Sov 179 121 58 147.9%Panama Sov 206 139 67 148.2%Colombia Sov 187 124 63 150.8%Turkey Sov 279 181 98 154.1%South Africa Sov 269 173 96 155.5%Gabon Sov 353 222 131 159.0%Ukraine Sov 973 611 362 159.2%Indonesia Sov 314 197 117 159.4%Belarus Sov 952 565 387 168.5%

Spreads

Page 37: Axa emsd citywire miami oct 17 18 2013

3737

Source : AXA IM Database, Bloomberg as at 02/10/2013, Indices Merrill-Bank of America. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EM USD Credits : relative value opportunity vs EUR & US Credits

€ AAA - A A BBB IG BB B CCC+< HY All € CorpsDuration 4.15 4.52 4.27 4.42 3.47 3.96 3.54 3.60 4.42Yield 1.49 1.87 2.70 2.16 4.29 6.79 10.40 5.42 2.16Spreads 85.00 110.00 199.00 141.00 394.00 559.00 968.00 482.00 141.00

$ AAA - A A BBB IG BB B CCC HY All US CorpsDuration 6.30 6.34 6.65 6.46 5.21 4.82 4.34 4.90 6.12Yield 2.84 2.93 4.01 3.37 5.36 6.73 10.32 6.76 4.10Spreads 111.00 118.00 208.00 155.00 345.00 461.00 845.00 478.00 224.00

EM Corp ML AAA - A A BBB IG BB B CCC HY All EM CorpDuration 5.21 5.11 5.49 5.38 4.69 3.67 3.15 4.17 5.05Yield 3.02 3.07 4.64 4.02 6.36 9.72 18.52 8.57 5.25Spreads 157.00 164.00 303.00 247.00 493.00 855.00 1800.00 731.00 378.00

EM Sov ML AAA - A A BBB IG BB B CCC HY All EM SovsDuration 7.29 6.06 5.01 6.68 5.50Yield 4.35 5.68 9.59 10.79 8.47Spreads 214.00 374.00 782.00 846.00 660.00

EM Corporate Credits currently offer a 50-80% spread premium to US peers at each rating level

Page 38: Axa emsd citywire miami oct 17 18 2013

3838

Top-Down Inputs:

•AXA IM’s Investment Strategy team •External experts •AXA Fixed Income portfolio managers

FI CIO summarises macro views to build a framework for Alpha Groups*

Alpha Groups define market expectations and active strategies using MVST analysis:

• Macro • Valuation • Sentiment • Technical

Active strategies and market forecasts

Alpha Group forecasts and recommendations define Portfolio Construction:

•Portfolio Engineering Group (PEG) calibrates risk exposure and optimises allocations•Rigorous security and instrument selection•Effective trade execution

Efficient use of risk budget and trade implementation

Risk is continuously monitored:

•Proprietary and third party risk models•Weekly review of exposures, risk metrics and active strategy performance•On-going adjustment of exposures to maintain risk targets

PEG and portfolio managers continuously manage portfolio risks and performance

Continuous MVST factor analysis and performance reviews:

•Investment committees•FI dealers meetings •Team meetings•Formal weekly Alpha Group calls•Ad-hoc discussions

Active portfolio management

Portfolio construction delivers our performance

1Define Macro Environment

2Define Active Strategies

3Portfolio Construction

5Continuous Strategy Review

4Risk Monitoring

*Alpha Groups: small sub teams of the FI team split by expertise: country allocation/term structure/inflation/investment grade/high yield/emerging markets.

Global EM investment process overview

Page 39: Axa emsd citywire miami oct 17 18 2013

39

MeetingsEM Team Rates / Credit Teams

Global Economic and Market AssessmentMonthlyFixed Income and Investment Strategy Teams

Monthly

EM Investment Committee(EM Alpha Group)

Active Strategy Group(EM & Global Rates Teams)

Macro Investment ThemesStrategic Country Allocation

Technical Risk Allocation

Proposed EM Strategies for Global Funds

US/EU Duration Calls

WeeklyEM Portfolio Risk Review

EM Team & PEG

WeeklyInvestment Team Meetings

Markets, Strategy, Business Development

Daily EM Team Morning Meeting (Paris, Singapore, London)

Ongoing assessment of global top down influences

Team-based market assessment and investment themes guiding strategic country and technical risk allocations

Portfolio risk control and ongoing optimisation with Portfolio Engineering Group

Tactical calls & position monitoring

Research Committee

Country / Sector AnalysisWeekly Weekly rolling country and corporate credit

sectors review and scoring.

Weekly fine tuning of strategic options and investment themes

Step 1 Investment Review Process

Page 40: Axa emsd citywire miami oct 17 18 2013

Emerging Markets Fixed Income Universe

Yield – Volatility –Liquidity

Bond Screening

Portfolio constraints

Portfolio Construction

Issuer Screening&

Credit Analysis Template

Proprietary Credit Analysis : PM Analyst model 45 countries and 350 corporates covered (90% of outstanding) Specific research templates for sovereigns and corporates Internal database of 1800 bonds

Market Indicators & Comparable Analysis Internal scoring of bonds based on Yield / Volatility / liquidity 4 distinct risk buckets (Liquidity / Low Vol / Carry & Rolldown / Momentum

Total Return Benchmarked / Free Alpha Yield / Maturity / Rating / Sector constraints

EM Sovereign and Corporate Screening and Analysis

Source: AXA IM

40

Page 41: Axa emsd citywire miami oct 17 18 2013

Shiv Chopra, CFA,MBA - Portfolio Engineer / Portfolio Manager - Analyst Portfolio Engineer in the Emerging Markets Fixed Income Team where he works on portfolio construction, monitors the consistencies of investment strategies and runs quantitative

simulations. Additionally, he covers specific emerging market credit sectors including Oil and gas credits, and assists the team in external client communication. Seven years industry experience Joined AXA IM in 2011 having previously worked for 5 years on the Institutional Lending desk at HDFC Ltd, a leading private sector lender in India, where he was responsible for

corporate loans financial analysis. Holds a Bachelors Degree in Accounting & Finance (First Class Honours) from the University of Delhi, a Masters in Business Administration from HEC Paris (Excellence Scholar) and

is a CFA Charterholder.

Iva Alexandrova – Portfolio Manager Portfolio manager within the Emerging Markets Fixed Income Team, with a specific focus on Hard Currency emerging debt. 13 years industry experience Joined AXA IM in 2007 as an assistant portfolio manager in the Global Rates team, having previously worked at First Investment Bank Ltd., Sofia, Bulgaria as an FX and Rates trader

on the foreign exchange desk (2004-2006), in the International Department (2002-2004) and in the Customer Service Department (1999-2001). Holds a Master’s in Banking and Financial Techniques from the University Panthéon-Assas Paris II (2006-2007) and a Master’s in Finance from the University for National and World

Economy in Sofia (2005-2006). She graduated with a Bachelor’s degree in Banking and Finance from the same university

Magda Branet, CFA– Portfolio Manager Portfolio manager within the Emerging Markets Fixed Income Team, with a particular focus on Emerging local currency markets Eight years industry experience Joined AXA IM in 2005 and prior to her appointment within the investment team in 2010, was a bond and emerging markets strategist and developed a cross-asset allocation model

aimed at diversified/balanced funds. She focused mainly on Central and Eastern European countries where she developed a strong macroeconomic expertise. Graduated in Finance from Orléans University and from Paris Dauphine University in Applied Economics and obtained a Master’s degree from Paris Dauphine in Asset Management.

She is a CFA Charterholder

41

Emerging and Asian Markets team biographies

Damien Buchet, CFA - Head of Global Emerging Markets Head of Global Emerging Markets, responsible for overseeing and developing our EMD offering 20 years of asset management and trading experience on Emerging Markets Joined AXA IM in 2010. He started his career in Hong Kong with Société Générale as an analyst on Hong Kong and Chinese corporates, then as an Asian equity fund manager based

in Hong Kong for Crédit Agricole Group. In 1996, he joined Barep Asset Management (Alternative Asset Manager of SG Group) as fund manager for Emerging Markets Debt. He developed and managed Barep’s product offering on Emerging Markets absolute return funds, of which Barep Nouveaux Horizons and Barep Global Credit, from 1999 to 2005. After a stint at CCR Gestion (Commerzbank Group) to develop an EM Global Macro investment process, he became head of Emerging Markets proprietary trading and structuring at Dexia.

Graduated from EDHEC Business School (Lille, France) and is a CFA Charter holder

Source: AXA IM as at 31/08/2013

Page 42: Axa emsd citywire miami oct 17 18 2013

Alvin Ong, CFA - Portfolio Manager Portfolio Manager within the Asian Fixed Income team Four years industry experience Joined AXA IM in October 2011 as a Portfolio Manager Assistant in the Asian Fixed Income team, responsible for assisting in the management of the Asian credit and sovereign

portfolios. Prior to joining AXA IM he was a Fixed Income Portfolio Manager with the Monetary Authority of Singapore investing Singapore’s foreign reserves in both global credits and Japanese government bonds.

Holds a Bachelor of Engineering, majoring in Electrical Engineering, from Nanyang Technological University of Singapore and is a CFA Charter holder.

Su Hwei Tee - Senior Credit Analyst Senior Credit Analyst within the Asian Fixed Income team, covering Asian credits across the financial, utilities, industrial and property sectors. 13 years industry experience Joined AXA IM in 2010 having previously worked as a Credit Analyst with UOB Asset Management where she was responsible for analysing Asia Pacific ex-Japan

telecommunications, utilities, oil & gas and Indonesian coal mining sectors. Before UOB AM she was a Fixed Income Analyst with Nikko Asset Management for 3 years, responsible for Asian local currency bond market research. Prior to that she was a Credit Analyst with Mitsubishi Turst, responsible for analysing Asia Pacific ex-Japan investment grade corporates

Holds a Bachelor of Business Studies from Nanyang Technological University of Singapore

42

Emerging and Asian Markets team biographies

Robert Andrew – Head of Asia Fixed Income Head of Asia Fixed Income and is responsible for the Asian Fixed Income team and oversees the management of Asian Fixed Income portfolios 18 years industry experience Joined AXA IM in 2013 having previously been Head of South Asian Investments at Manulife Asset Management for two years where he was accountable for the profitability, asset

growth and smooth operation of the front, middle, and back offices in Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Vietnam and Thailand. Prior to this, he was with ABN Amro Asset Management where he held key fixed income portfolio management roles in London and in Singapore for 11 years. During his time in London, he managed global fixed income portfolios on behalf of central banks and sovereign wealth funds. He then moved to Singapore to take up his new role of Head of Asia Pacific Fixed Income. Prior to this, he worked with the Reserve Bank of Australia where he fulfilled roles in economic analysis, exchange rate analysis, portfolio management and prudential supervision in Sydney and in London for 5 years

Graduated from the University of New England with a first class Bachelor of Economics

Source: AXA IM as at 31/08/2013

Page 43: Axa emsd citywire miami oct 17 18 2013

434343

DisclaimerThis presentation is intended for institutional non US investor use only and should not be relied upon by retail clients. Circulation must be restricted accordingly. Any reproduction of this information, in whole or in part, is prohibited.

This document is being provided for informational purposes only. The information contained herein is confidential and is intended solely for the person to which it has been delivered. It may not be reproduced or transmitted, in whole or in part, by any means, to third parties without the prior consent of the AXA Investment Managers Inc (the “Adviser”). Nothing herein is or should be construed as an offer to enter into any contract, investment advice, a recommendation of any kind, a solicitation of clients, or an offer to sell or an offer to invest in any particular fund, product, investment vehicle or derivative. The information contained herein is not complete, may not be current, and is subject to change. The Adviser is under no obligation to update such information. Certain information herein has been obtained from third party sources and, although believed to be reliable, has not been independently verified and its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. This material is not directed at, nor is it available for distribution to, U.S. investors or any persons in any jurisdictions in which the Adviser or its affiliates are prohibited by law from making this information available. An investment in strategy may be offered only pursuant to a prospectus, subscription agreement and other related documents (the "Offering Package"). Any information regarding the Fund contained herein is qualified in its entirety by the more complete disclosures, risk factors and other terms that are contained in the Offering Package.

Any decision to invest in the strategy should be made after reviewing the Offering Package carefully, conducting such diligence and investigations as the investor deems necessary and consulting the investor’s own legal, accounting and tax advisors in order to make an independent determination of the suitability and consequences of an investment in the strategy. The Advisor disclaims any and all liability relating to a decision based on or for reliance on this material.

This presentation does not constitute an offer or solicitation to sell shares/units in any of the funds referred to, by anyone in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation or distribution would be unlawful or in which the person making such offer or solicitation is not qualified to do so or to anyone to whom it is unlawful to make such offer or solicitation .The strategy described in this presentation are administered and managed by companies within the AXA Investment Managers Group and can be marketed in certain jurisdictions only. It is your responsibility to be aware of the applicable laws and regulations of your country of residence. Further information is available in the prospectus or other constitutional document. Information concerning portfolio holdings and sector allocation is subject to change and, unless otherwise noted herein, is representative of the target portfolio for the investment strategy described herein and does not reflect an actual account . Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of investments and the income from them can fluctuate and investors may not get back the amount originally invested. Changes in exchange rates will affect the value of investments made overseas. Investments in newer markets and smaller companies offer the possibility of higher returns but may also involve a higher degree of risk. The holdings shown herein should not be considered a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any particular security, do not represent all of the securities purchased, sold or recommended for any particular advisory client, and in the aggregate may represent only a small percentage of an account’s portfolio holdings.

The securities described herein are not suitable for all investors and nothing in this material or any subsequent document or any communication should be construed as a recommendation by the Advisor or any of its respective affiliates to invest , or to refrain from investing in any other transaction. The information contained in this material is not based on the particular circumstances of any named recipient. It does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual clients. Potential investors must make their own investment decisions whether or not to invest . The Advisor is not acting in the capacity of advisor or fiduciary of any recipient. Nothing contained herein should be construed in any jurisdiction as tax, accounting, regulatory, legal, investment or other advice.

Investing involves risk and past performance does not guarantee future results. Global fixed income securities are subject to interest rate risk, currency risk, credit risk, prepayment risk and market risk. Emerging Market and High yield securities are subject to a greater risk of loss of principal and interests than higher-rated, investment grade fixed income securities. Investors in offshore vehicles advised or sub-advised, in whole or in part, by the Adviser employing the investment strategy described herein may be subject to currency exchange risk. There is no guarantee that the objectives of the investment strategy described herein will be achieved.

Investment in the strategy is speculative and involves substantial risks, including a high degree of risk, potential conflicts of interest and risks of loss. It is suitable only for sophisticated investors that have the financial ability and willingness to accept the high risks and lack of liquidity inherent in an investment in the strategy.

Page 44: Axa emsd citywire miami oct 17 18 2013

444444

DisclaimerThis presentation is intended for institutional non US investor use only and should not be relied upon by retail clients. Circulation must be restricted accordingly. Any reproduction of this information, in whole or in part, is prohibited.

The Adviser is not a tax or legal advisor. Prospective investors should consult their tax and/or legal advisors before making tax-related and/or legal-related investment decisions.