Utah Past, Present &FAST FORWARD

Arthur C. (Christian “Chris”) Nelson, Ph.D., FAICPPresidential Professor & Director

Metropolitan Research CenterUniversity of UtahJanuary 11, 2010

America Grows200 million in 1968300 million in 2006400 million in 2034500 million in 2050

America adds 100 million people faster than any other nation except India and

Pakistan – But faster than China.

Source: Arthur C. Nelson, Presidential Professor & Director of Metropolitan Research, University of Utah.

The Boom to Come 2010-30Area Utah Rank1990-2010

Pop. Growth 1.2M 14Growth Rate 68% 3

2010-2030Pop. Growth 1.5M 11

Growth Rate 51% 1Will rise from 34th to 28th most populous stateSource: Arthur C. Nelson, Presidential Professor & Director, Metropolitan Research Center, University of

Utah.

The Boom to Come Salt Lake Metro

Metros > 1M (52) Salt Lake Rank1990-2010

Pop. Growth 400k 28Growth Rate 53% 12

2010-2030Pop. Growth 500k 27

Growth Rate 42% 8Source: Arthur C. Nelson, Presidential Professor & Director, Metropolitan Research Center,

University of Utah.

The Boom to Come Salt Lake Metro

More Growth than: San AntonioSan JoseTucsonVirginia Beach

Will Surpass: LouisvilleMemphisMilwaukeeOklahoma City

The Boom to Come Salt Lake Metro

Faster Growth rate than: OrlandoDallas-Ft. WorthDenverWashington DCTampaSeattle

The Boom to Come Provo & Ogden Metros

Metros > 500k-1M (51) Provo Ogden1990-2010

Pop. Growth 300k 5 210k 11Growth Rate 110% 1 60% 5

2010-2030Pop. Growth 360k 6 170k 20

Growth Rate 63% 2 30% 14Source: Arthur C. Nelson, Presidential Professor & Director, Metropolitan Research Center, University of

Utah.

The Boom to Come Logan & St. George Metros

Metros < 250k (183) Logan St. George1990-2010

Pop. Growth 50k 32 120k 4Growth Rate 63% 12 240% 1

2010-2030Pop. Growth 70k 22 250k 1

Growth Rate 52% 8 150% 1Source: Arthur C. Nelson, Presidential Professor & Director, Metropolitan Research Center, University of

Utah.

The Boom to Come BC, Cedar City & Heber MicrosMicro (574) Brigham Cedar City Heber1990-2010

Pop. Growth 13k 110 30k 28 15k 100Growth Rate 36% 79 140% 5 145% 4

2010-2030Pop. Growth 20k 61 40k 22 25k 46

Growth Rate 42% 29 75% 4 100% 1Source: Arthur C. Nelson, Presidential Professor & Director, Metropolitan Research Center, University of

Utah.

2040

20402010

332 billionsquare feet

464 billionsquare feet

132 billionsquare feet

155 billionsquare feet

287 billionsquare feet

Source: Data from Arthur C. Nelson, Presidential Professor & Director, Metropolitan Research Center, University of Utah. Image from Architect magazine, premier issue, November 2006.

Wasatch Range Megapolitan Area 2010-30

3rd fastest growing behind:Las Vegas & Sun Corridor

Faster growing than “high-growth” megas:Front Range & CascadiaSierra Pacific & Southern CalTexas Triangle & FloridaPiedmont & Chesapeake

Population Growth 2010-2030

Area 2010 2030 Change PercentWasatch 2.5M 3.6M 1.1M 45%Utah 2.9M 4.4M 1.5M 50%

Numbers may not calculate due to rounding.

Source: Arthur C. Nelson, Presidential Professor & Director, Metropolitan Research Center, University of Utah. Numbers may not add or calculate due to rounding. Figures adapted from 2008 Economic Report to the Governor, Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget.

Residential Units 2010-2030

Area 2010 2030 New/Rebuilt %’10Wasatch 900k 1.35M 450k 50% Utah 1.1M 1.65M 550k 50%

Numbers may not calculate due to rounding.

Source: Arthur C. Nelson, Presidential Professor & Director, Metropolitan Research Center, University of Utah. Numbers may not add or calculate due to rounding. Figures based on residential units per capita 2000 adjusted for declining household size, plus loss factor based on census analysis.

Employment Growth 2010-2030

Area 2010 2030 Change PercentWasatch 1.5M 2.2M 700k 50%Utah 1.7M 2.6M 900k 50%

Numbers may not calculate due to rounding.

Source: Arthur C. Nelson, Presidential Professor & Director, Metropolitan Research Center, University of Utah. Numbers may not add or calculate due to rounding. Employment includes full- and part-time jobs as defined by BEA.

Nonresidential Space 2010-2030

Area 2010 2030 New/Rebuilt %’10Wasatch 750M 1.1B 900M 120%Utah 850M 1.3B 1.2B 120%

Numbers may not calculate due to rounding.

Source: Arthur C. Nelson, Presidential Professor & Director, Metropolitan Research Center, University of Utah. Numbers may not add or calculate due to rounding.

Source: Arthur C. Nelson, Presidential Professor & Director of Metropolitan Research, University of Utah, based on DoE Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey.

Life-Span of Building Function

Bottom Line ConstructionWasatch Megapolitan

2010-2030Residential $190 billionNonresidential $140 billionInfrastructure $ 70 billionTotal $400 billionAnnual Average $20 billion

Source: Arthur C. Nelson, Presidential Professor & Director, Metropolitan Research Center, University of Utah.

40,000 Housing Units Short

Source: Arthur C. Nelson, Presidential Professor & Director, Metropolitan Research Center, University of Utah

Substantial Pent-Up Demand100,000 more Utahns “doubling up” than 2005.Pent-up demand for about 40,000 new unitsEconomic recovery will mean housing gets a

One-Two Punch:New homes needed to serve growthNew homes needed to reduce doubling up

During 2010 & 2011100,000 new units neededBut ….

How Does It Grow?

Households are ChangingHousehold Type 1960 2000 2040US

HH with Children 48% 33% 26%HH without Children 52% 67% 74%Single/Other HH 13% 29% 34%

_________________________________________ UtahHH with Children 47% 38%HH without Children 53% 62%Single/Other HH 18% 22%

Source: Arthur C. Nelson, Presidential Professor & Director, Metropolitan Research Center, University of Utah.

People Turning 65 Each Year[Figures in 000s]

Source: US Census Bureau – 65+ in the United States: 2005; Wan He, Manisha Sengupta, Victoria A. Velkoff, & Kimberly A DeBarros. December 2005.

1000

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Share of Growth 2000-2040US HH Type ShareWith children 14%Without children 86%

Single/Other 30%UtahWith children 25%Without children 75%

Single/Other 25%Source: Arthur C. Nelson, Presidential Professor & Director, Metropolitan Research Center, University of Utah.

“New Urbanity” Preferences

Source: National Association of Realtors, American Preference Survey 2004.

Importance of Community Attributes

1. Housing type (23-26%)2. Neighborhood age/life stage mix

(20-24%)3. Public transportation options

(12-14%)4. Type of community (12-15%)5. Size of yard (11-12%)6. Open space (9-11%)7. Architectural design (5-6%)

Source: Adapted from Harris Interactive for Envision Utah

1

2

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71/2 to 2/3 (55-65%)

Preferred Community Attributes

Housing type: Mix of single family homes & town homes

Neighborhood age/life stage mix: Mix of ages & stages

Public transportation options: Bus, Rail, TRAX

Type of community: VillageLot size: Variety of lot sizesOpen space: Active & passiveArchitecture: Distinctive

Preferred Combination

of 75% of Utahns

Was about 25% in 1990s

Source: Envision Utah based on Harris Interactive

New Housing Market RealitiesSub-prime mortgages are historyAlt-A mortgages no moreFHA-like conventional mortgages king“Jumbo” loans problematicDemand for $1million+ homes tankedRealization that location matters for investmentMeaning

Smaller homes on smaller lotsMore rentersTrend to more “urbane” location options

Growth Share by Ethnicity

Ethnicity 2000 2030 Rate ShareWhite* 1.5M 2.1M 40% 45%Non-White 260k 1.0M 285% 55%

*Non-Hispanic White

Source: Adapted from Woods & Poole Economics (2008) by Arthur C. Nelson, Ph.D., FAICP, Presidential Professor and Director, Metropolitan Research Center, University of Utah.

Home Ownership by Ethnicity - Utah

Ethnicity Ownership 2006All Households 72%White* 74%Black 48%Hispanic 50%Asian/Pacific Islander 53%

*Non-Hispanic White

Source: Freddie Mac.

The Future is all About Education

100 Latina/o Elementary Students

40 High School Graduates

4 College Graduates

1 Masters Degree

~0.1 Doctorate

100 White Elementary Students

84 High School Graduates

26 College Graduates

10 Masters Degrees

1 Doctorate

Source: Adapted from Octavio Villalpando, University of Utah.

Shifting Tenure MarketSalt Lake, Provo & Ogden Metros

Tenure 2006 2030 Change ShareOwner 480k 650k 170k 51%Renter 200k 360k 160k 49%Total 680k 1.0M 330k

2008-2015 2/3–3/4 of New Housing will be for Renters including those who rent detached homes

Source: Arthur C. Nelson, Presidential Professor & Director, Metropolitan Research Center, University of Utah.

2040 1+1+5+25 = Wasatch “New Urbanity” Demand

1%+ Demand for downtown SLC40,000 people (minimum)

1%+ Demand for secondary centers (Ogden, Sandy, Provo)40,000 people

5%+ Demand for near-center living (Several SLC locations)200,000 people

25%+ Demand for transit-connected, suburban planned communities (Day Break)1,000,000 people

= Two-thirds of all new development to 2040

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