CHRISTMAS SALES OF 2011 WHAT IS THE TREND?

Amund Bråthen, Konsument analytiker Norges Sjømatråd Miniseminar Oslo, 3. februar 2011 ab@seafood.no

DEVELOPMENT IN THE DEMAND FOR SALMON

• The numbers are representative

what the households are buying for

their homeconsumption.

• The numbers does not include

HoReCa.

• The data is paneldata collected

through Europanel.

STRONG INCREASE OF SALMON BOUGHT FOR HOMECONSUMPTION

IN SPAIN – DECREASE IN THE OTHER COUNTRIES

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

Spain France UK Germany

To

tal v

olu

me

of

Salm

on

pro

du

cts

(to

n p

rod

uctw

eig

ht)

Volume (Product weight)

2010

2011

+21%

-6,2%

-3,3% -2,3%

Volume development Period: jan – dec 2010 and 2011 Product: All type of Salmon products Source: Europanel/NSC

SMALL CHANGES IN THE RELATIVE SHARE OF THE DIFFERENT

PRODUCTS IN THE DIFFERENT COUNTRIES. 75%

77%

64%

66%

12% 11%

11% 10%

13%

12%

25%

24%

0 %

10 %

20 %

30 %

40 %

50 %

60 %

70 %

80 %

90 %

100 %

2010 2011 2010 2011

Volume Productweight

. Value

Spain

Smoked

Frozen

Fresh

39%

39%

29%

27%

18% 17%

14% 14%

40%

41%

55%

57%

3% 3% 2% 2%

0 %

10 %

20 %

30 %

40 %

50 %

60 %

70 %

80 %

90 %

100 %

2010 2011 2010 2011

Volume Productweight

. Value

France

Canned

Smoked

Frozen

Fresh

10% 11% 11% 11%

37% 35% 28% 28%

50%

51%

59%

58%

3% 3% 2% 2%

0 %

10 %

20 %

30 %

40 %

50 %

60 %

70 %

80 %

90 %

100 %

2010 2011 2010 2011

Volume Product weight . Value

Germany

Canned

Smoked

Frozen

Fresh

61%

63%

60%

60%

23% 22% 16% 15%

15%

15%

24%

25%

0 %

10 %

20 %

30 %

40 %

50 %

60 %

70 %

80 %

90 %

100 %

2010 2011 2010 2011

Volume Product weight . Value

UK

Smoked

Frozen

Fresh

2011

Value: 476 243 000 Eur

Volume:47 329 Tons

2011

Value: 567 105 000 GBP

Volume:42 139 Tons

2011

Value: 995 442 000 Euro

Volume:55 118 Tons

2011

Value: 567 105 000 Euro

Volume:42 139 Tons

WHOLE YEAR

2011/2010 Fresh Frozen Smoked

Volume Price Volume Price Volume Price

France -4,6 % -2,3 % -13,6 % 11,7 % -4,2 % 6,5 %

Germany 4,2 % 2,2 % -5,9 % 10,3 % -1,1 % 2,7 %

UK -1,6 % 1,5 % -8,9 % 1,5 % -1,4 % 4,0 %

Spain 24,3% -0,2% 11,0% -1,0% 11,0% 3,2%

DEVELOPMENT IN HOME CONSUMPTION OF

SALMON - YEARLY

Volume and price development Period: jan – dec 2010 and 2011 Product: All type of Salmon products Source: Europanel/NSC

Q4 11/10

Fresh Frozen Smoked

Volume Price Volume Price Volume Price

France 21,9 % -17,0 % -12,7 % 10,6 % - 9,2 % 6,4 %

Germany 21,6 % -10,3 % -8,2 % 11,8 % 0,7 % -4,0 %

UK 17,4 % -11,6 % -19,6 % 0,2 % 7,5 % -3,3 %

Spain 43,3% -11.8% 18,4% 9,0 % 8,0% 1,2 %

DEVELOPMENT IN HOMECONSUMPTION OF SALMON

– Q4

Volume and price development Period: jan – dec 2010 and 2011 Product: All type of Salmon products Source: Europanel/NSC

P13/ DECEMBER

Fresh Frozen Smoked

Volume Price Volume Price Volume Price

France 23,8 % -16,3 % -10,4 % 9,9 % -6,0 % 5,2 %

Germany 29,6 % -11,0 % -15,4 % 12,8 % -3,0 % -5,9 %

UK 21,9 % -2,5 % -12,5 % 2,7 % 2,5 % 5,3 %

Spain 56,7% -11,3% 4,9% 18,5% 4,3% 2,0%

CONSUMERS REACTS POSITIVELY ON PRICE

DECREASES AROUND CHRISTMAS.

Volume and price development Period: dec 2010 and 2011 Product: All type of Salmon products Source: Europanel/NSC

8,7 %

20,8 %

11,8 %

8,9 %

10,2 %

24,8 %

14,6 %

10,9 %

0,0 %

5,0 %

10,0 %

15,0 %

20,0 %

25,0 %

30,0 %

Frankrike UK Spain Germany

2010

2011

SALMONS VOLUM SHARE OF FRESH SEAFOOD IN

Q4 2010 AND Q4 2011

Volume and price development Period: oct – dec 2010 and 2011 Product: Fresh Salmon compared with fresh seafood Source: Europanel/NSC

Q4 AVG PRICES FOR FRESH FISH IN FRANCE

6,63 7,29

8,88 9,96 10,02 10,03 10,36 10,37

11,09 11,29 11,42 11,95 11,97 12,07 12,22 12,85 13,38 13,93

14,59 14,64

15,36 15,54

17,98 19,50

21,58

0,00 5,00 10,00 15,00 20,00 25,00

MaquerelPangas

MerluTrout

PlaiceSeabream

CoalfishPerch

DabSaumonette

LingRay

SalmonOther fish

WhitingGrand TotalRed Mullet

PollackSea BassHaddock

GrenadierCod

TunaAngler

Sole

2010

4,94 8,27 8,34

9,67 9,70 10,02

10,78 10,93

12,03 12,05 12,33 12,74 12,90 13,10 13,11 13,57

14,47 14,58 15,19 15,57 15,85 16,32 16,73

19,31 21,04 21,34

0,00 5,00 10,00 15,00 20,00 25,00

SardinesMaquerel

PangasSaumonette

MerluSalmonCoalfish

TroutOther fish

SeabreamPerch

Grand TotalDabLingRay

WhitingPlaice

HaddockRed MulletSea Bass

PollackGrenadier

CodSole

AnglerTuna

2011

Price for fresh fish Period: oct – dec 2010 and 2011 Product: Fresh fish Country: France Source: Europanel/NSC

VALUE AND VOLUME DEVELOPMENT FOR FRESH

FISH Q4

Cod

Coalfish

Whiting

Angler

Hake

Seabream

Sole

Haddock

Trout

Sea bass

Ray

Perch Cod-Fish

Pangas

Ling

Dab

Red Mullet

Mackerel

Salmon

Tuna

-60,0

-40,0

-20,0

0,0

20,0

40,0

60,0

-40,00 -30,00 -20,00 -10,00 0,00 10,00 20,00 30,00 40,00

Vo

lum

e

dev

elo

pm

en

t

Price development

Volume and price development Period: oct – dec 2010 and 2011 Product: Fresh fish products Country: France Source: Europanel/NSC

The size of the cirkle indicates the

species value related marketshares in

Q4 2011

0 %

10 %

20 %

30 %

40 %

50 %

60 %

70 %

80 %

90 %

100 %

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2009 2010 2011

16+

14-15,99

12-13,99

10-11,99

7-9,99

MARKET SHARE OF FRESH SALMON SOLD IN

DIFFERENT PRICE INTERVALS.

Price for fresh fish Period: quaterly 2009 to 2011 Product: Fresh fish Country: France Source: Europanel/NSC

CONSUMERS ARE COMMING BACK AND THEY ARE

BUYING MORE EACH TIME THEY BUYS.

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 2 4 6 8 10 12 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 2 4 6 8 10 12

2008 2009 2010 2011

Ind

ex (

pe

rio

d x

/ p

eri

od

xa

ye

r ag

o)

France – fresh sliced salmon

Penetration

Trip size

Frequency

Price

• The households has reacted to the decreased price in Q4 with increase in penetration, frequency and

trip size.

• Trip size for December 2011 is the highest we have measured.

• The price for December 2011 is the fourth lowest price measured in a single period since p01 2006.

Period: quaterly 2009 to 2011 Product: fresh salmon slices Country: France Source: Europanel/NSC

POSITIVE DEVELOPMENTS IN THE END OF THE

YEAR BUT STILL A POTENTIAL.

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

2 4 6 8 10 12 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 2 4 6 8 10 12 1 3 5 7 9 11 13

2008 2009 2010 2011

Ind

ex (

pe

rio

d x

/ p

eri

od

xa

ye

r ag

o)

France – Smoked Salmon

Penetrasjon

Trip size

Frekvens

Pris

• The households has reacted to the increased price in Q4 with decreased penetration, frequency and

trip size.

• Positive developments in p13 for Penetration and Frequency but there is still a potential to before we

are back to “old levels”.

• Prices are still above the prices for the same period a year ago.

Period: quaterly 2009 to 2011 Product: Smoked salmon Country: France Source: Europanel/NSC

• 74,3% (-0,9 percent points) of all French households

has bought smoked salmon last year.

• 37,7% (-1,2 percent points) of all French households

has bought fresh salmon last year.

– Q4

• Positive development on all of the variables –

penetration, trip size and frequency.

Strongest positive development for

Penetration and trip size.

• Positive development in the groups of lower

income, households age 35+ and households

less than 5 persons.

• Supermarkets have strengthen their position during

2011 – specialized stores have weakened.

• Fresh salmon has only three times before been below

the p13 2011 price.

– 79% of fresh salmon was sold for 11,99 euro or less in

Q4 2011. In Q3 2011 it was only 12% of the volume

sold for less than 11,99 Euro.

WHAT HAS HAPPEND?

• Salmon is outperforming seafood and FMCG.

• Salmon is increasing in all chain formats but

especially in Supermarkets.

• Salmon has been one of the most attractive seafood

species to attract new households in 2011.

• 70,4% of the Spanish households are buying salmon

today.

– Aproximately 530 000 new Households from 2010 to

2011 and 1 300 000 new households from 2009 to

2010.

• The increased salmon sales are especially a

consequence of increased numbers of new

households and an increased purchase frequency.

– Increased comsumption among family households in

1. half of 2011 and seniors for 2. half of 2011.

– Increased consumption also among the once in the

lower economic classes.

WHAT HAS HAPPEND?

1. Strong price decrease together with a volume increase for fresh salmon in Q4 and

especially in December.

2. Increased price/ decreased volume trends for Frozen products in Q4 and

3. Some indications for price decrease/ volume increase are seen for smoked Salmon.

4. Spain has had an extraordinary year in terms of sales of salmon.

5. Increased penetration but also trip size in Q4

SUMMARY