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Status of the Thai Auto Industry after the 2011 Flooding. Presentation for AFG Automotive Focus Group Thailand by Khun Charn Saralertsophon, Executive VP from Federation of Thai Industries (FTI).
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A Resilient Thai Automotive Industry
By Mr.Charn Saralertsophon
Director General
The Federation of Thai Industries
27th January 2012
Global Positioning
3
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
ChinaU.S.A.Japan
GermanyKorea Ind
iaBrasilSpain
MexicoFrance
CanadaRussia
ThailandU.K.
TurkeyCzech Ita
ly
Indonesia
Argentina
MalaysiaOthers
Units
23%
Thailand production ranking no.13 globally 957,846 units in 2011
Source : Fourin
World ranking of Automotive Production (Jul’11)
<x1,000 units>
4
0
1,0002,000
3,0004,000
5,000
6,0007,000
8,0009,000
10,000
11,00012,000
ChinaU.S.A.JapanBrasil
GermanyIndiaRussiaFranceU.K.Italy
CanadaKorea
Australia Sp
ain
Thailand
Indonesia
Mexico
Argentina
Belgium
NetherlandOthers
Units
Source : Fourin
23% 20%
3%
Thailand sales ranking no.15 globally 583,957 units in 2011
World ranking of Automotive Sales (Aug’11)
<x1,000 units>
ASEAN Markets
6
Brunei,11,970
Indonesia ,746,199
Malaysia,503,898
Philippines,119,152
Singapore,33,648
Thailand ,713,842
Vietnam,89,858
23%
32% 34%
Source : ASEAN Automotive Federation
2%
4%
5%
ASEAN Automotive Industry
ASEAN Automobile Market Share (Jan – Oct’11)
Total sales of 2,218,567 units
Thai Latitude
8
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011F 2012E
Production Domestic Export
Tom-Yung Kung crisis
1 Mil milestone
Hamburger crisis
2010 2011 (adj. Forecasted) • Production 1,645,304 1,400,000
• Sales: 800,357 700,000
• Export: 895,855 700,000
Japan Tsunami & Earthquake
Thai Flood 2011 <x 1,000
units>
?
Thai Automotive Industry Situation
9
146
172
89
174
49
24
-25%
23%-68%
-85%0
40
80
120
160
200
240
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec-100%
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
Production 2010 Production 2011 % '11 vs '10
Jan – Nov 2011 = 1,358,369 units
Jan – Nov 2010 = 1,507,901 units
% Growth = -1%
Japan Tsunami Thai Flood
Target 1.8 mil.
Target 1.4 mil.
Thai Automotive Industry Situation
Car Production (Jan – Oct’11)
146,231 150,743
172,004
89,179 98,804
153,646 147,236 153,180
174,212
49,439
23,695
99,426 103,849
127,849
151,143
105,110
132,165 148,878 145,771 141,049
141,416
152,689 157,982
137,403
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Units
Production 2011 Plan 2011 Production 2010
Car Production of Dec 2011
Source: Automotive Industry Club, FTI
320 % (Compared Nov’11) - 28 % (Compared Dec’10) - 31 % (Compared Plan)
Jan-Dec 2011 = 1,457,795 units Jan-Dec 2010 = 1,645,304 units % Growth = - 11 % Plan 2011 = 1,794,486 units Actual < Plan = 19%
Domestic and Export Production of Dec 2011
Jan-Dec 2011 Total = 1,457,795 units - Domestic = 723,845 units ( 50%) - 4 % - Export = 733,950 units ( 50%) - 18 %
Jan-Dec 2010 Total = 1,645,304 units - Domestic = 750,614 units ( 46%) - Export = 894,690 units ( 54%)
Source: Automotive Industry Club, FTI
12
Jan-Nov’ 11= 700,581 units
CBU Value : ~326,335 Mil. Bht
Total Export Value : ~494,300 Mil. Bht
Export Sales
Source: The Thai Automotive Industry Association
Thai Automotive Industry Situation
Jan – Nov 2011 = 700,581 units
Jan – Nov 2010 = 824,830 units
% Growth = -15%
PPV8%
Passengercar25%
Pickup67%
Oceania21%
Middle East21%
Asia32%
Africa5%
Europe10%
Central &South
America11%
Car Export Sales (Jan – Nov’11)
Car Domestic Sales of Dec 2011
Source: Automotive Industry Club, FTI
68,398
77,213
93,008
67,283
55,851
70,259 72,902 79,043
87,012
42,873
26,069
55,339 49,560
54,175
63,067
57,128
62,205
70,557 65,672 65,724
68,261
72,012 78,874
93,122
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Units
Month Year 2011 Plan 2011 Year 2010
Car Domestic Sales 112 % (Compared Nov’11) - 21 % (Compared with plan) - 41 % (Compared Dec’10)
Jan-Dec 2011 = 795,250 units
- 1 % (Growth of Jan-Dec)
Car Domestic Sales of Jan-Dec 2011
Source: Automotive Industry Club, FTI
Jan - Dec’11 = 795,250 units
P-Car: Jan-Dec’11 = 335,202 units Jan-Dec’10 = 343,821 units % Growth = - 3 %
P/U 1t: Jan-Dec’11 = 327,675 units Jan-Dec’10 = 347,314 units % Growth = - 6 %
PPV: Jan-Dec’11 = 38,173 units Jan-Dec’10 = 40,479 units % Growth = - 6 %
Other: Jan-Dec’11 = 52,611 units Jan-Dec’10 = 50,003 units % Growth = 5 %
Eco-Car: Jan-Dec’11 = 41,184 units Jan-Dec’10 = 18,740 units % Growth = 120 %
15
Foreign Majority
54%
Foreign Joint
Venture
Local Supplier
Thai Majority
23%
Pure Thai 23%
Tier 1 (Total 690 Companies)
Assembler (Car 16 Companies, Motorcycle 7 Companies)
Tier 2,3 (1,700 Companies)
Thai Automotive Industry has huge contribution to Thai economy, supported by a strong supplier network.
Strong Suppliers Network
Source : Economist Intelligence Unit, UK
TAI 2010
AutomotiveIndustry10%
Manufacturing GDP
To Manufacturing GDP
Thai Automotive Industry Situation
Contribution to Thai Economics
146,231 150,743
172,004
89,179 98,804
153,646 147,236 153,180
174,212
49,439
23,695
99,426 103,849
127,849
151,143
105,110
132,165 148,878 145,771 141,049
141,416
152,689 157,982
137,403
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Units
Production 2011 Plan 2011 Production 2010
Car Production of Dec 2011
Source: Automotive Industry Club, FTI
320 % (Compared Nov’11) - 28 % (Compared Dec’10) - 31 % (Compared Plan)
Jan-Dec 2011 = 1,457,795 units Jan-Dec 2010 = 1,645,304 units % Growth = - 11 % Plan 2011 = 1,794,486 units Actual < Plan = 19%
The Trend
18 18
Thailand is here!
Automotive trend
Technological Direction for Vehicles
19
E850.4%
E2036.8%
HV0.1%
Bio-Diesel47.9%
E109.2%
CNG5.6%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
3 8 13 4
4,901
6,821
HV Sales Hybrid Share
(Jan-Jun 2011)
Total 432,012 units
Hybrid in Thai market is the smallest section, but its sales has dramatically increased since its introduction phase.
Imported Cars
Local HV produced
starts
<units>
Hybrid in Thailand
2011 Flood &
Rehabilitations
21
1. Exempt import duty of machineries.
2. Exempt import duty of auto-parts.
3. Exempt import duty of CBUs for factory that was flooded.
4. Provide soft loan to flood victims.
5. Commercial bank to relax and delay paying loan.
6. Support on moving machineries, tools and products out from flood area.
7. Facilitate in issuing visa of foreign specialists who seek support on flood matters.
8. Relax practices according to Alien Act. to enable foreign company to help local flood victims.
Thai Government Supportive Policies in Flood 2011
Government promptly support the flood victims in automotive industry
22
Thai Government Supportive Policies in Flood 2011
Yes Thailand
24
Hub of Pickup
Unique Eco-Car
Hub of automobiles & parts Regional R&D center
Hybrid Vehicle local production
Unique environmental friendly vehicle (Eco-Car) created by Thai govt.
Local Hybrid Vehicle production ie. Camry hybrid, Prius and others are coming.
- Toyota Motor Asia Pacific Engineering & Manufacturing
- Honda R&D Asia Pacific
- Denso International Asia (R&D)
- Isuzu R&D
- Others
Thai Automotive Outstanding Points
25
Thailand has largest and expanding production
26
• Thailand is the hub of pickup and derivatives (Niche Product) of the world. • Regional market is plentiful. • Government has firm and consistent supportive policies ever since. • Long experiences of basic technology and skilled labor force. • Strong supplier networks. • Industrial estates and infrastructure are well coordinated. • (Peaceful political situation)
• Disunity of government policies. • Lack of own technology. (Innovation) • Raw material and machineries. (R&D) • Human resources. (Vocational skills)
Weaknesses
Strengths
Strength and Weakness of Thai Automotive Industry
27
Infrastructure Good infrastructure network
Market Considerable market size (65 Mil people) Gateway to 580 million people of ASEAN Spring board to China & India, GMS and BIMSTEC
Attractive government incentives Government
Supplier Rich pool of supporting industries Good access to raw materials
People Abundant quality labor forces Hospitality, friendly attitude and flexibility
Amenity Low cost of living Delicious foods and Rich Culture, Arts & Craft. Attractive Heritage sites
Good Supportive Factors that Thailand is more attractive for investment
Summary
28