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1 6/5/2000 Richard E. Howard Access to the Global Internet: Which Technology Will Win? Evolution + 3G builds on existing networks + Huge volumes + Global spectrum Separate network Optimized for voice Old technology Revolution + IP networks + Optimized air interfaces + Design for converged traffic + New technology for low cost No global spectrum or approval No market momentum Timing? For most of the world in 5 years (aside from North America and part of Europe): Phone = Cell Phone Internet = Wireless Internet

3G Mobility - 3G Mobility: The “Evolutionary Route to

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Page 1: 3G Mobility - 3G Mobility: The “Evolutionary Route to

16/5/2000 Richard E. Howard

Access to the Global Internet: Which Technology Will Win?

• Evolution+ 3G builds on existing networks

+ Huge volumes

+ Global spectrum

– Separate network

– Optimized for voice

– Old technology

• Revolution+ IP networks

+ Optimized air interfaces

+ Design for converged traffic

+ New technology for low cost

– No global spectrum or approval

– No market momentum

– Timing?

For most of the world in 5 years (aside from North America and part of Europe):

Phone = Cell Phone

Internet = Wireless Internet

Page 2: 3G Mobility - 3G Mobility: The “Evolutionary Route to

26/5/2000 Richard E. Howard

Industry Directions for Networking

• Cellular Telecom Approach– Efforts to define wireless data networking standard (General Packet Radio

Service - GPRS) begin before full impact of Internet explosion is felt• Internet-Based Approach

– Use Internet standards for networking and mobility with extensions to interoperate with cellular air interfaces (e.g., GPRS, CDMA2000)

GPRS standards begin

1990 1995 2000153M Internet

Users

1998

3M Internet Users

1994

1992

FPLMTS standards begin

1st GPRS customers

Microsoft & AT&T still competing with Internet

Page 3: 3G Mobility - 3G Mobility: The “Evolutionary Route to

36/5/2000 Richard E. Howard

3G Mobility: The “Evolutionary” Route to Wireless Data

Paul Mankiewich and Rich Howard

Bell Labs, Lucent Technology

Page 4: 3G Mobility - 3G Mobility: The “Evolutionary Route to

46/5/2000 Richard E. Howard

3G Cellular Systems:The Enabler of the Global Internet

Wireless Networks become the point of access that funnels end user experience into the Internet

Wireless Network

Internet

First Contact With the Internet for Most People in the World Will be Wireless

Page 5: 3G Mobility - 3G Mobility: The “Evolutionary Route to

56/5/2000 Richard E. Howard

Integrated Wireless Services--The Vision

Wi-Fi (WaveLAN)

Radio Hub

Cable, xDSL, V9010/100-BaseT

Wireless LAN

Bluetooth

Wireless PAN

Multimedia &MessagingServer

• integrated voice and data• video postcards• in-call image up/download

• codec converter• bandwidth manager• store & forward• playback

Content

GPRS/EDGE/TDMABaseStation

UMTS/CDMA2000BaseStation

IP Network

Wireless Backbone and Gateways

Location Services

Page 6: 3G Mobility - 3G Mobility: The “Evolutionary Route to

66/5/2000 Richard E. Howard

Migration of Digital Cellular Systems

UMTS

GSM Circuit-Switched Voice

GPRS

GPRS: General Packet Radio Service (17.6 kbps x 8)EDGE: Enhanced Data for GSM Evolution (59.2 kbps x 8)UMTS: Universal Mobile Telecomm Systems

EDGE

IS-136 Circuit-Switched Voice

IS-136+

EDGE

Packet Voice & Dataover EDGE

Packet Voice & Dataover UMTS (WCDMA)

Circuit-SwitchedCircuit-Switched VoicePacket-Switched Data

Packet-Switched

CDMA2000

PacketData

Page 7: 3G Mobility - 3G Mobility: The “Evolutionary Route to

76/5/2000 Richard E. Howard

Mobility Subscriber Projections: Analyst View

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200Ovum

Goldman Sachs

EMC

IDC

Herschel Shosteck

Merrill Lynch

Nokia Press Release

Ericsson Press Release

Lucent View

Ovum 283 363 433 500 562

Goldman Sachs 295 385 483

EMC 299 421 569 730 896 1049

IDC 257 325 396

Herschel Shosteck 298 405 519

Merrill Lynch 301 397 493 588 683 766 840 913

Nokia Press Release 10000

Ericsson Press Release 300 390 490 600 700 800

Lucent View 300.5 390.7 477.8 564.9 675.3 809.2 924.5 1041

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

5/99 Est

5/99 Est EMC

1.3B by 2004

Page 8: 3G Mobility - 3G Mobility: The “Evolutionary Route to

86/5/2000 Richard E. Howard

The Voice/Multimedia Revenue Gap ($ Millions)

Source: International Data Corp, 1998/Level 3

Today’s IP Market

Today’s Voice Market9.4%=

Today’s Voice Market

Switched Telephony 462,763

Fax 64,775

Total 527,538

Today’s IP Market

Data Services 37,092

Internet Access 15,471

IP Telephony 1,890

IP VPN 419

Total 54,872W

ireless is much worse

Page 9: 3G Mobility - 3G Mobility: The “Evolutionary Route to

96/5/2000 Richard E. Howard

Consumer Cocktail: DoCoMo I-mode

• Service offered: - Security trading (2 traders) - Banking (31 banks) - Travel - Concert tickets - News - Network game - Total of 1300 I-mode web sites

• Subscriber uptake: - Service Launch February 22, 1999 - 20,000 in March - 100,000 in April - 90.000 new subscribers/week in August - August 99: 1.2 million subscribers (24 million DoCoMo users) - E-mail and mobile banking most popular

Page 10: 3G Mobility - 3G Mobility: The “Evolutionary Route to

106/5/2000 Richard E. Howard

I Mode in Japan: 6M Subscribers in Under 1 Year (and the Rate is Increasing)

~140,000 new subscribers/week

DoCoMo Website 6/1/2000

Page 11: 3G Mobility - 3G Mobility: The “Evolutionary Route to

116/5/2000 Richard E. Howard

Wonder Swan

•Hand-held Game Device•Sold 1.4 M units in Japan in one year•Email send and receive (SMTP)•Internet Access (mini-browser)•Remote download of mini-games

Page 12: 3G Mobility - 3G Mobility: The “Evolutionary Route to

126/5/2000 Richard E. Howard

Applications and Network Capability Linked to Market SegmentCost of Service is “Clearly” Low (10 Yen = 8 Cents)

High School Girls10 YEN P-Mail

Business ProfessionalValue Mail

CapabilitySpeed 64K

Wireless Data in the Japan Market

Market Segment

H.S. Girl

Application

64K

Dating Connection

Page 13: 3G Mobility - 3G Mobility: The “Evolutionary Route to

136/5/2000 Richard E. Howard

Mobility: Data vs Voice

• Almost all traffic (and revenue) is voice– BUT, mobile data is growing much faster than voice

– US is behind Europe and Japan • Japan is approaching 50% data traffic

• Today systems are circuit switched and spectrally inefficient– 2G systems => ~$600/hour for video or $60/hour for MP3

– 3G systems have• IP backbones

• Lower cost per bit

• Easy service creation

• What will be the services?• Who will pay the bills?

Page 14: 3G Mobility - 3G Mobility: The “Evolutionary Route to

146/5/2000 Richard E. Howard

Migration of Digital Cellular Systems

UMTS

GSM Circuit-Switched Voice

GPRS

GPRS: General Packet Radio Service (17.6 kbps x 8)EDGE: Enhanced Data for GSM Evolution (59.2 kbps x 8)UMTS: Universal Mobile Telecomm Systems

EDGE

IS-136 Circuit-Switched Voice

IS-136+

EDGE

Packet Voice & Dataover EDGE

Packet Voice & Dataover UMTS (WCDMA)

Circuit-SwitchedCircuit-Switched VoicePacket-Switched Data

Packet-Switched

CDMA2000

PacketData

Page 15: 3G Mobility - 3G Mobility: The “Evolutionary Route to

156/5/2000 Richard E. Howard

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000UMTS

GSM

TDMA (3G)

TDMA

cdma2000

cdmaOne

Analog

Other

UMTS 0 0 0 0 6745 14897 30641 56955

GSM 69653 12935 19285 25262 37672 45591 50086 53171

TDMA (3G) 0 0 0 0 140 885 2660 5445

TDMA 6833 14343 23932 35560 65122 83438 10399 12685

cdma2000 0 0 0 0 1285 6000 15435 27519

cdmaOne 7109 20642 36216 56735 11130 14577 18394 22237

1997 1998 1999 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005

Mobility Subscriber Projections: by Technology

Lucent WNG View

Subscribers in Thousands

GSM

UMTS

Page 16: 3G Mobility - 3G Mobility: The “Evolutionary Route to

166/5/2000 Richard E. Howard

3G Data Options

WirelessTechnology

SpectralBandwidth

ModeledThroughput

Peak Data RateExpected Market

Introduction

3G-1X1.25 MHz for

Data100-180 Kbps

305 Kbps(mobile)

1H2001(144Kbps peak rate)

HDR1.25 MHz for

Data400-600 Kbps

2.4 Mbps(fixed/mobile)

1H2002

EDGE Compact 1 MHz for Data 190-275 Kbps384 Kbps(mobile)

1H2002

EDGE Classic2.7 MHz for

Data330-370 Kbps

384 Kbps(mobile)

1H2002

WidebandCDMA-DS

5 MHz forVoice/Data

480-720 Kbps2 Mbps (fixed)

384 Kbps(mobile)

1H2001 (Japan)1H2002 (Eur/NA)

WidebandCDMA-3X

5 MHz for Data 480-720 Kbps2 Mbps (fixed)

384 Kbps(mobile)

2H2002

Page 17: 3G Mobility - 3G Mobility: The “Evolutionary Route to

176/5/2000 Richard E. Howard

The next generation architecture uses Internet based client-server platforms to enable universal services and reduce network cost structure.

The next generation architecture uses Internet based client-server platforms to enable universal services and reduce network cost structure.

Today’s Wireless Networks

99% Mobile Voice Circuit Derived

Base Stations

Next Generation Networks

Packet Mode

ServersHigh Speed Data, Multimedia, Voice

over IP, etc.

Wireless Control ServersFeature Control, Network Management, Billing, etc

Universal Services - Voice or Data & Wireless or Wireline Client/Server Model - Internet Derived (IP)

Radio Clients

MSC

Internet / Advanced ServicesPSTN

Circuit Mode

ServersVoice, LS

Circuit Data, etc.

PSTN

Network Servers

Mobile Switches

IP / ATM Core Network

Transition to Next Generation Networks

Page 18: 3G Mobility - 3G Mobility: The “Evolutionary Route to

186/5/2000 Richard E. Howard

Services Rollout

Portal Link

Web access

Intranet

3G

1Q1999 4Q1999 4Q2000 4Q2001

WAPlaunch

Mobile OfficeSchedule Management Work flow ManagementElectronic Conference

File Sharing

Video

Multi-playerGames

Music

m-banking

Interactive TV

TV Conference

InformationServices

Radio

Visual, High Speed

SMS

Picture clips

Route planning

ChatRoomemail

GPRSVideo clips

Web cam

m-stock tradingm-cash

Page 19: 3G Mobility - 3G Mobility: The “Evolutionary Route to

196/5/2000 Richard E. Howard

10

EricssonR320 WAP Phone

& MC218Mobile Companion

• Docomo

• Pocketboard

QUALCOMMpdQ™ smartphone

MotorolaStarTAC™ clipOn

Organizer NeoPoint™1600 smartphone

Nokia7110 phone &

9110 Communicator

SharpZaurus

Bandai Bandai WonderSwanWonderSwan

Samsung MP3 Phone

The Devices are Awesome

Page 20: 3G Mobility - 3G Mobility: The “Evolutionary Route to

206/5/2000 Richard E. Howard

Courtesy Gee Rittenhouse 3/7/00

Can 3G Deliver?:UMTS Capacity Estimates

• Overall about 6x increase over IS-95 for voice– 3x comes from bandwidth--5 MHz vs 1.25 MHz

– 2x from modulation, coherent detection, and signal processing tricks.

• For user rates up to ~128 kbps (BER=~1e-4 )– 1.8 Mb/sec total for all 3 sectors in 5 MHz of spectrum each way.

– About 5.4 Mb/sec/basestation total for a 15 MHz up/15 MHz down license

• => ~42 users/basestation at 128 kbps• Range ~2-3 Km => Can cover UK with about 10-20K basestations

– Capacity for about 1% of the population at 128 kbps

– Smart antennas can increase this by at least 4X

• If 10% of the population wanted 128 kbps continuous (e.g. MP3) – ~20-40K basestations with 4 antennas in a terminal

– Reasonable flat-rate pricing possible

Page 21: 3G Mobility - 3G Mobility: The “Evolutionary Route to

216/5/2000 Richard E. Howard

License Winner Price A TIW UMTS (UK) Limited £ 4,384,700,000 B Vodaphone Limited £ 5,964,000,000 C BT (3G) Limited £ 4,030,100,000 D One2One Personal Communications Limited £ 4,003,600,000 E Orange 3G Limited £ 4,095,000,000

Will UMTS Happen?: Results of UK UMTS Spectrum Auction

~$34B says it will!

Rest of Europe by Fall

Page 22: 3G Mobility - 3G Mobility: The “Evolutionary Route to

226/5/2000 Richard E. Howard

Backups

Page 23: 3G Mobility - 3G Mobility: The “Evolutionary Route to

236/5/2000 Richard E. Howard

Multiple Access Schemes

CDMADifferent “Languages”

FDMADifferent Carriers

TDMADifferent Time Slots

FHSSOrthogonal Time Slots & Carriers

Page 24: 3G Mobility - 3G Mobility: The “Evolutionary Route to

246/5/2000 Richard E. Howard

Enhanced Data for Global Evolution (EDGE)

• Defines an evolution of GSM and TDMA technologies to support high bit rate circuit and packet data services

• Builds on GPRS (General Packet Radio Service) air interface and network with adaptive modulation and coding

• Uses 200 kHz bandwidth channels • Two versions of EDGE:

– EDGE Classic enables full backwards compatibility with current GSM (4/12 reuse)

– EDGE Compact enables limited spectrum (< 1 MHz) deployments

• Channel structure supports:– Peak throughputs up to 474 kbps– Average throughputs up to 384 kbps (up to

200 kbps for EDGE Compact with limited spectrum deployments)

Page 25: 3G Mobility - 3G Mobility: The “Evolutionary Route to

256/5/2000 Richard E. Howard

Wireless data network

• Macrocellular data rates ~384 kbps (UMTS-FDD)• Minicellular data rates ~1 Mbps (UMTS-TDD)• Picocellular data rates ~1-20 Mbps (Bluetooth, hyperLAN)

Increasing data rate, decreasing cell size

Macrocell-mobiler~3-5 km

Minicell-mobiler~1 km

Picocell-pedestrianr~100 m

BLAST technology used in every one

Page 26: 3G Mobility - 3G Mobility: The “Evolutionary Route to

266/5/2000 Richard E. Howard

Internet Volume Approaches Voice

1.E+00

1.E+01

1.E+02

1.E+03

1.E+04

1.E+05

1.E+061.E+07

1.E+08

1.E+09

1.E+10

1.E+11

1.E+12

1.E+13

1.E+14

Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00

Bits/sec

Voice/Modem

Total Internet

WWW

New networks will need to be deployed as demands for data and interactive services approaches capacity of existing voice/data networks

Projected

Actual

Worldwide voice/modem traffic

Source: Internet Society

Projected Crossover 1999

Data=10xVoice2000

Show Me The Money!

Page 27: 3G Mobility - 3G Mobility: The “Evolutionary Route to

276/5/2000 Richard E. Howard

PSTN

IP/ATM Core Network

ANSI-41BackboneNetwork

PacketPacketGatewayGateway5ESS5ESS

SwitchSwitch To Data and VOIP Gateways

SGSNSGSN GGSNGGSN

CircuitCircuitData IWFData IWF

• Packet Voice (VOIP) starts with an IP Client in the terminal, the call model resides in feature servers on the IP network.

• Traditional Circuit voice is supported as before.

• Packet Voice (VOIP) starts with an IP Client in the terminal, the call model resides in feature servers on the IP network.

• Traditional Circuit voice is supported as before.

IP Client in terminal for Voice and packet data

IP Client in terminal for Voice and packet data

Traditional Circuit voice supported by MSC

Traditional Circuit voice supported by MSC

7RE 7RE FeatureFeatureServersServers

7RE7REResourceResourceServersServers

CustomerCustomerCare NMCare NMServersServers

PacketPacketGatewayGateway

Call Call Control Control ServersServers

Mob Mob ManagerManager

7RE 7RE SignalingSignalingGatewaysGateways

APsAPs

APsAPs

Real Time Services Via GPRS & IP:Phase 2 - VOIP Starting at Terminal

Use Today’s Wireless Voice Infrastructure and Interconnect with the Packet Core Network at a PSTN trunk level.

Page 28: 3G Mobility - 3G Mobility: The “Evolutionary Route to

286/5/2000 Richard E. Howard

Enhanced Data for Global Evolution … (continued)

• Handoff enabled through reselection procedures• Current work in ETSI to define VoIP and Real-Time services over EDGE

in GSM Release 2000• Phase 1

– Standards: Release ’99– Large deployments start in 2002

• Some initial deployments start in 2001

– Supports best effort packet data at speeds up to about 384 kbps

• Phase 2 – Standards: Release 2000– Large deployments start in 2003

• Some initial deployments start in 2002

– Will add Voice over IP capability

Page 29: 3G Mobility - 3G Mobility: The “Evolutionary Route to

306/5/2000 Richard E. Howard

3G Solution Direction

• One Network delivering Voice and Data services

– Supporting all major 3G Technologies to enable operators to meet global market needs

– IP Centric Network Architecture for Internet derived services

– Future proof platform that evolves with the IP networking industry

– Working with Sun to deliver next generation services with carrier grade reliability (99.999%)

• Flexible Service Creation

– Provides platform for integration of mobile and internet environments

– Rapid service delivery for Lucent developed and third party services

– Retain value in wireless network by creating operator controlled value added interfaces

• Operators want to be more than an IP pipe provider• Rapid Network Deployment

– Easy to install and maintain

– Self Optimizing

– Integrated maintenance capabilities to reduce life cycle costs