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BH Report: Broadway 2014/11/28
Context
It was the fall of 2004 when I went to see a live Broadway musical, Rent, for the first time in my life. It was one heck of an experience that opened up my eyes to this unique genre of entertainment, and since then, I have been seeing more than 5 shows (both musicals and plays) a year - mostly in Broadway, but also in West End and even in Japan.
What's interesting is that Broadway has been around for quite some time (at least 100 years) and that it has successfully transformed itself to make it one of the best tourist destinations as well as for local fans. I share the common complaint that it is pretty expensive form of entertainment, but I'm pretty sure that I love Broadway and that I will continue to keep coming back regardless of prices.
In this report, I tried to explore the relatively recent stats (~20-30 years) on Broadway:
• How is Broadway doing overall as an industry (ticket sales, attendance and prices)?
• How much impact does Tony (annual award ceremony for musicals and plays) have?
• When do shows close? (how low can ticket sales be before closing)
– Are any of the long running shows today close to closing?
In addition, I also put together a case study on an epic "flop" (which is something people don't often encounter or remember unless you happened to be one of small # of audiences who went to see the show)
Summary of findings
• Broadway has experienced strong growth (~5-8% CAGR) in the last 30 years • For the last 15 years, attendance has been flat and almost all of the growth
has been due to price increase – Price doubled in 15 years and quadrupled in 30 years – The rate of price increase has been faster than other forms of
entertainment
• Tony award nomination alone gives quite a boost to ticket sales (unless the show was already popular and sold out) and winning Tony allows you to keep up the sales for the months to follow
• Shows that end up closing generally experience ~50% (or below) gross of potential gross revenue
– The metrics combines the view on "how may tickets are sold" and "how much discount is given out"
• Looking at the top five longest running musicals today...
– Lion King and Wicked are very safe (~90%+ % gross of potential) – Phantom and Chicago has been showing the sign of weakness
bordering ~50% line. Historically, they have been successful in boosting sales by movies, etc. but they may close in next couple years
– Mamma Mia! has been flying at low altitude of ~60% for 5 years and is probably at most risk of closing among the five
How is Broadway doing overall as an industry?
How much impact does Tony have?
When do shows close? (are any of the long running
shows "at risk")
How is Broadway doing overall?
Broadway has experienced strong growth – almost entirely driven by price increase esp. for 2000 onward
(Average ticket has quadrupled in the last 30 years!)
0
500
1,000
1,500
20
04
19
92
19
84
19
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19
86
19
88
20
12
20
14
20
08
20
02
19
98
19
96
20
06
20
00
20
10
19
90
5.1%
$M
7.5%
0
5
10
15
20
08
20
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04
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02
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00
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98
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94
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92
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84
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12
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20
10
Million
0.2%
3.1%
0
25
50
75
100
125
20
10
20
00
19
86
19
88
19
92
19
94
19
84
20
14
20
12
20
08
20
06
20
04
20
02
19
98
19
96
19
90
$
4.3%
4.9%
Broadway gross revenue
# attendance
Gross rev. per attendance (~ avg. ticket price)
x
Dip in 2001 from 9/11
Note: Each year is represented by "season" (for example, 2013 means June 2013 - May 2014) Note: Includes both musicals (~82% of attendance) and plays (~18% of attendance) Source: The Broadway League
~70% of attendance by tourists in 2013
1
2
Real estate space (= # of theaters) has been flat... (85% of theaters are from the 1st half of 20th century)
40404040404040404040404040414141424141424242424242
0
10
20
30
40
50
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
14
19
90
19
92
19
91
20
13
19
93
20
04
20
03
20
05
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
Note: "Broadway theaters" defined as professional theatres with 500 or more seats located in the Theater District and Lincoln Center along Broadway Source: Internet Broadway Database
1 Attendance
40 theaters can house total of 50 thousand audiences
5%
55%
1975-2000
30%
10%
40
1925-1949
1950-1974
1900-1924
# of Broadway theaters Year built
... and attendance has been stable at ~80% of capacity for the last 15+ years
86868182
7983
7982
83807979798079798081
0
20
40
60
80
100
2008
Average
Attendance as % of capacity
2014 2013 2012 2000 1999 1998 1997 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2011 2010 2009
Note: 2014 is partial year (Jan-Nov) Note: Capacity figure only reflects theaters with shows (i.e., the number would be lower if you include theaters in between shows) Source: The Broadway League
1 Attendance
Back-up: Within a year, ticket sales is highly seasonal (Busiest month experiences 1.5x attendance compared to the slowest month)
0.75 0.50 0.25 1.00 0.00 1.25
# attendance per month (million, 2003-2013 averaged)
Month Average
Dec
Nov
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
+50%
Jan
Mar
Feb Continued weak sales post holiday
Quiet post holiday seasons – no tourists & locals with tight budget
Increased marketing; some shows beginning to preview/open
Many new shows opening and spikes from spring breakers
Remaining new shows and Tony nomination giving boost
Tony award (good for winners, bad for losers) and beginning of summer
Summer break continues; dampened by 4th of July & lower buzz
The end of summer tourism
Some new shows begin to open, but not yet strong
Many new shows; local sales goes up, but still not many tourists
More new shows – continued hike in buzz
Increased sales from Christmas and New Year holiday audience
Underlying drivers
Source: Internet Broadway Database; New York Show Tickets
1 Attendance
The rate of Broadway ticket price increase has been faster even more than other "notorious" forms of entertainment
Movie ticket price NFL ticket price Broadway ticket price
0
2
4
6
8
102
01
3
20
11
20
09
20
06
20
12
20
08
20
10
20
14
20
07
$
+2.7%
0
20
40
60
80
100
20
13
20
11
20
09
20
06
20
12
20
08
20
10
20
14
20
07
$
+3.9%
0
25
50
75
100
125
20
13
20
11
20
09
20
06
20
12
20
08
20
10
20
14
20
07
$
+4.7%
Source: The Broadway League; Box Office Mojo; Statistica
2 Ticket price
Why can shows keep raising price?
Hypothesis
• Affluent (i.e., they "can" pay)
• "Tourists" – more willing to pay premium for the experience
• "Fans" – repeat at any cost
• No "viable" alternatives
Demographics of Broadway goers
• Average age ~44 years • Average Household income of $201,500 • 39% of goers (above the age of 25) has graduate degrees
• ~70% of attendance
– Domestic tourists ~49% – International tourists ~21%
• ~79% of tickets were bought by visitors who considered Broadway a very important reason for coming to NYC
• Average goer attended 4 shows • N/A (conceivably, you can analyze what are the other typical
theater markets like Las Vegas or more local productions and see how they have performed – but I ran out of time to conduct such analyses)
Source: The Broadway League
Overarching hypothesis: Broadway theater goers are not price sensitive
2 Ticket price
Back-up: Different demand/popularity of the shows result in creating wide distribution of ticket prices
5769
6970
74
7678
79
7979
8082
84
91
9598100
102
109
112115
122127
160
181
0 50 100 150 200
MOTOWN THE MUSICAL
MATILDA
ROCK OF AGES
THE PHANTOM OF THE OPERA
ON THE TOWN ONCE
MAMMA MIA!
CHICAGO
LES MISÉRABLES
CINDERELLA
PIPPIN IF/THEN
HONEYMOON IN VEGAS
THE LAST SHIP
SIDE SHOW
3.2x
Average Ø 95
KINKY BOOTS
JERSEY BOYS
ALADDIN
THE LION KING
BEAUTIFUL
THE BOOK OF MORMON
Average paid ticket price ($, in the week ending 11/23/2014)
HEDWIG AND THE ANGRY INCH
CABARET WICKED
A GENTLEMAN’S GUIDE TO LOVE AND MURDER
Source: Broadway World
2 Ticket price
Still "sold out" and ticket prices at
premium after 4 years
How much impact does Tony have?
What is Tony?
Source: Wikipedia
The Antoinette Perry Award for Excellence in Theatre, more commonly known informally as the Tony Award, recognizes achievement in live Broadway theatre • Started in 1947 • As of 2014, there are 24 categories of awards, plus several special
awards – awarding both Plays and Musicals
From 1997 to 2010, the Tony Awards ceremony was held at Radio City Music Hall in NYC (except for 1999, 2011 and 2012) • Typically, nominees are announced in the end of April • Tony Award ceremony usually takes place in early June
Winning Tony, especially "Best Musical", often helps boost ticket sales
We will look at four "Best Musical" nominees for 2014
A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder (2014 Tony "Best Musical" winner)
101102103
92
73
5150
5963
3943
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
20
14
/4
20
14
/3
48
20
14
/2
20
14
/1
20
13
/12
20
13
/11
20
13
/10
Gross as % of potential1
20
14
/11
88
20
14
/10
20
14
/9
95
20
14
/8
20
14
/7
20
14
/6
20
14
/5
Boost from Tony nomination on
4/28
1. Metrics to show the gross revenue as % of gross potential (theoretical figure assuming full seat sales at full price) Source: Internet Broadway Database
Won Tony Best Musical for 2014
on 6/8
Tony nomination significantly boosted sales
1
After Midnight (2014 Tony "Best Musical" nominee)
606062
69
59
50
0
10
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20
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/11
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/10
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/9
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/8
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/7
20
14
/6
20
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/5
58
20
14
/4
46
20
14
/3
20
14
/2
Gross as % of potential1
20
14
/1
56
20
13
/12
20
13
/11
20
13
/10
Did not win Tony & closed on 6/29
Interesting that the level of sales before Tony Award looks pretty similar to Gentleman's
A bit of boost from Tony nomination on 4/28, but not as big
2
1. Metrics to show the gross revenue as % of gross potential (theoretical figure assuming full seat sales at full price) Source: Internet Broadway Database
Aladdin (2014 Tony "Best Musical" nominee)
1019894
899089
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
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80
90
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110 105 108
105
20
14
/11
20
14
/10
20
14
/9
20
14
/8
20
14
/7
20
14
/6
20
14
/5
20
14
/4
Gross as % of potential1
20
13
/10
20
13
/11
20
13
/12
20
14
/1
20
14
/2
20
14
/3
Tony had absolutely no impact – it was and still is pretty well sold out
3
Summer tourism audience (family)
1. Metrics to show the gross revenue as % of gross potential (theoretical figure assuming full seat sales at full price) Source: Internet Broadway Database
Beautiful: The Carole King Musical (2014 Tony "Best Musical" nominee)
9390
8082
7372
79
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
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80
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100
110
20
13
/11
20
13
/12
20
14
/1
20
14
/2
Gross as % of potential1
20
14
/4
20
14
/10
97
20
14
/11
103
20
14
/9
97
20
14
/8
101
20
14
/7
98
20
14
/6
95
20
14
/5
20
13
/10
20
14
/3
Strong/healthy growth – no impact from Tony
4
1. Metrics to show the gross revenue as % of gross potential (theoretical figure assuming full seat sales at full price) Source: Internet Broadway Database
When do shows close? Are long running shows close to closing?
Shows that close generally experience ~50% gross of potential or below
67
59
484846
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
-12 -7 -9 -8 -15 -14 -10 -13 -11
Gross as % of potential1
# of weeks before closing
-16 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0
47 47 49 49 50
43 48 48 46 47
51 50
1. Metrics to show the gross revenue as % of gross potential (theoretical figure assuming full seat sales at full price) 2. Includes Big Fish, Billy Elliot, Bring it on the Musical, Chaplin, First Date, Ghost the Musical, Mary Poppins, Memphis, Nice Work if You Can Get it, Priscilla Queen of the Desert, Sister Act, and Spider-Man: Turn Off The Dark Source: Internet Broadway Database
• Each line represents a musical that closed in 2012-2014 above16 weeks of performance (12 shows2)
• Blue bar represents the average
There is generally a boost in the last 2
weeks for "one last time" demand
Top 5 longest running musicals that are currently on Broadway
4,608
5,423
7,080
7,486
11,159
0 5,000 10,000 15,000
The Lion King
Wicked
Chicago (Revival)
The Phantom of the Opera
Mamma Mia!
# of performances (as of 11/23/2014)
On Broadway since...
1988
1996
1997
2001
2003
1ource: Wikipedia; Internet Broadway Database
Chicago and Phantom both came close to ~50% gross potential range, but received boosts from movies, etc.
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Chicago
Gross as % of potential1
The Phantom of the Opera
1. Metrics to show the gross revenue as % of gross potential (theoretical figure assuming full seat sales at full price) Source: Internet Broadway Database
Boost from movie ('05/1)
Boost from movie ('02/12)
25th anniversary
Chicago on its way out in next couple years?
Mamma Mia with more steady decline Movie had no impact
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Mamma Mia!
Gross as % of potential1
1. Metrics to show the gross revenue as % of gross potential (theoretical figure assuming full seat sales at full price) Source: Internet Broadway Database
Movie ('08) but no impact
To close in next couple years?
The Lion King and Wicked both have strong performance
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Wicked
Gross as % of potential1
The Lion King
1. Metrics to show the gross revenue as % of gross potential (theoretical figure assuming full seat sales at full price) Source: Internet Broadway Database
Unlikely to close anytime soon
Back-up: Top 5 longest running musicals on the same chart
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Mamma Mia!
Wicked
Chicago
Gross as % of potential1
The Phantom of the Opera
The Lion King
1. Metrics to show the gross revenue as % of gross potential (theoretical figure assuming full seat sales at full price) Source: Internet Broadway Database
Case study on an epic "flop"
Example of an epic flop: Soul Doctor
What it is Broadway musical that details the life of Rabbi Shlomo Carlebach How it came about • Lead producer, Jeremy Chess (a New York retina surgeon, never produced a
show before) conceived the show after noticing the popularity of Carlebach's songs – a mix of soul, gospel and Jewish music – at weddings and other celebrations
• Director (Daniel Wise) and Choreographer (Benoit-Swan Pouffer) also have never worked on Broadway musicals before
Where it played • Debuted in New Orleans (2010) • Subsequent runs at
– Miami, FL (2011) – Ft Lauderdale, FL (2012) – NYC off-broadway (2013)
• Began Broadway preview at Circle in the Square theater (776 seats) in July, official opening in August and then closed in October, 2013 – 32 previews + 66 performances – Gross revenue of $1.9M
Source: Internet Broadway Database; ArtsBeat
What happened to the attendance, price, gross revenue?
5663
81
0
20
40
60
80
100
%
28-Jul-13
8-Sep-13
15-Sep-13
22-Sep-13
29-Sep-13
21-Jul-13
4-Aug-13
11-Aug-13
18-Aug-13
25-Aug-13
1-Sep-13
6-Oct-13
13-Oct-13
66
86 75
88 86
69
89 84
65 73
Gross revenue as % of potential1
Attendance as % of full capacity
Ticket price as % of full potential price x
23
0
20
40
60
80
100
15-Sep-13
6-Oct-13
22-Sep-13
32
8-Sep-13
%
24
1-Sep-13
31 24
29-Sep-13
29
13-Oct-13
31 32
25-Aug-13
18-Aug-13
11-Aug-13
33 30
4-Aug-13
32
28-Jul-13
26
21-Jul-13
28
21202426
282626
2324
0
20
40
60
80
100
28-Jul-13
4-Aug-13
21-Jul-13
16
18-Aug-13
29-Sep-13
22-Sep-13
8-Sep-13
13-Oct-13
6-Oct-13
15 18
%
1-Sep-13
15-Sep-13
25-Aug-13
16
11-Aug-13
<- Preview
<- Preview
<- Preview
Avg. potential price = $130
1. Metrics to show the gross revenue as % of gross potential (theoretical figure assuming full seat sales at full price) Source: Internet Broadway Database
Average ticket price remained very low (i.e., large number of free tickets, or "comps" given out) impacting gross
What did people think about the show in Broadway?
Summary
It suffered from low production quality ... ... bad book ... ... bad choreography ... ... even some decent casts couldn't save it ... ... making it a boring show that's not even bad enough to be hilarious
Quotes from BroadwayWorld.com message board
• "I see they had about 50 bucks to spend on scenery" • "They probably bought a bench at a thrift store and painted it blue" • "Yes, the whole thing (especially the costumes) looks very cheap and I spent the entire evening
thinking, 'why is this on Broadway?'"
• "The book was chock full of so many groaners I don't even know where to start. I think my favorite was "Creme de la creme? Creme de la shmeme!" But his future wife telling a group of hippies with the intonation of an infomercial, "I was on dope until I met Shlomo," was a close second. "
• "The choreography, which I believe has been totally rethought since the off-Broadway
production, was hysterically awful. All of the movements were way too modern; it looked like the ensemble had learned routines from So You Think You Can Dance, and not always the same one at the same time"
• "The acting is mostly very campy but I think Eric and Amber do a pretty great job with what
they're given" • "Eric Anderson does his best to ground the piece with his portrayal of Shlomo, but he only has
so much to work with" • "My advice would be to stay as far away from this as humanly possible. Even if you are offered
comps...hell, even if someone pays you to go - do not go" • "There are some groaners, but overall, it's not bad in a funny way like Got Tu Go Disco or In
My Life. Be prepared to be simply bored" • "The house emptied out at intermission (even though it was half empty to begin with)"
Source: BroadwayWorld.com message board
Back-up: Some insightful conversation between the two message board members...
ghostlight2
Mock them all you like, but this is a very personal labor of love by those who knew and loved this rabbi (his daughters, I believe, are involved). He truly was a bit of a legend and a game-changer. His was an interesting life but it's a badly-written show, and they refuse to change much of it, being too close to the man himself, perhaps. I happened to see it in its early stages in NYC downtown, and yet another version in New Orleans. I also saw it at Circle in the Square, where it had an amazing cast, but had not otherwise improved. I will not be seeing this latest version, but I don't get all the mean-spiritedness about it. Just don't go see it. All this schadenfreude is like kicking a puppy that's been run over already twice.
WhizzerMarvin TrinaJasonMendel
"ghostlight, For me the frustration stems from what you describe. There is such great source material here, and the daughters/creators just refuse to make any sort of REAL changes to improve the piece. That deserves scorn and derision in my eyes. What's that definition of insanity? You keep doing the same thing and expect different results? That's exactly what they're doing with this show. Remounting the same poorly-written junk in a new venue and expecting a different response from audience members/ticket buyers. After NYTW, New Orleans, Broadway (and I believe it started at NYMF) it's time to either do a major revision or throw in the towel"
Source: BroadwayWorld.com message board
What happened after it closed?
• About eight month later, in June 2014, the show was revived in Montreal for a one-month engagement...
• ... followed by a news that it will re-open off-broadway in NYC at Actors Temple Theater (~165 seats)
– Set to begin on December 1st, with an opening slated for December 15th
Source: Wikipedia
Just because a show flops doesn't mean that it's dead
Disclaimer
This document is provided for general information only and nothing contained in the material constitutes a recommendation for the purchase or sale of any security. Although the statements of fact in this report are obtained from sources that I consider reliable, I do not guarantee their accuracy and any such information may be incomplete or condensed. Views are subject to change on the basis of additional or new research, new facts or developments.