10 Trends for Bicycle Culture

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The�Next�Cycle10�Trends�for�Riding

into�the�Future

Marian SalzmanInterbike IBD Summit

April 18, 2012

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Why�Trends?Why�do�we�look�at�trends�when

creating�actionable�and�insightfulstrategies�for�big�brands?�

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•To identify the driving forces behind today and thefuture and plan for long-term success.

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•To identify the driving forces behind today and the futureand plan for long-term success.

•To discover unexpected opportunities that can helptransform brands and businesses.

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•To identify the driving forces behind today and the futureand plan for long-term success.

•To discover unexpected opportunities that can helptransform brands and businesses.

•And for us here today: To understand what trendsare going to make a difference to people who arebuying bicycle products and why.

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Learning�to�Spot�Trends

It means tracking

people

socialmomentum

companiesradical

breakthroughs

brandseconomies

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Being�a�Successful�Trendspotter

The qualities of a good trendspotter apply to any activitiesinvolving groups of people over time—B2C, B2B, sport, education,art, healthcare, travel …

All-around awareness:Trendspotters cultivate a “radar”that picks up things near and far,from global to local. Smartretailers do this instinctively bynoticing the different types ofcustomers coming in, how theyspend, what they talk about andwhat competitors are doing.

Curiosity: Insatiable interest in what people are or aren’tdoing and a desire to find outwhy is essential for atrendspotter.

A way of being: Trendspotters aren’t just people who appear in the media and on stage; they’re also smart businesspeople whoconsistently tune in to their market.

Contexts: Nothinghappens in isolation—trendspotters relate whatthey observe not only tothe immediate context butalso to other contexts thatmight be relevant (what’sin the local news, changesin school rolls, outdooractivities that are gettingpopular, etc.).

Future-ready: Alwaysthinking about the futureimplications of currenttrends: How do I factorwhat’s happening nowinto the future I’mplanning for?

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Trendspotting

•We are all hardwired to seek patterns in what we observe and touse them to make predictions about the future.

•Trendspotting aims to find patterns and connections across lesssharply defined fields of human behavior—it deals with manymore variables where information is fuzzier.

•Trendspotting draws on a range of disciplines: business, history,marketing, psychology, sociology, statistics.

•News, journals, popular culture, social media and conversationsall provide raw material for trendspotting.

The point is not to make precise predictions (like who willwin the Tour de France) but rather to spot currents thatwill flow into the future and help shape it.

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Local�Is�theNew�global3.

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Humans + Technology => Trends

“First we shape our tools; thereafter they shape us.”

•Virtually every twist and turn in human history has beeninfluenced and shaped by some form of technology.

•Every technology—from hand axes, weaving and wheels throughgunpowder and sails, to internal combustion and microchips—has driven social trends.

•Now, above all, it’s digital technology that’s involved somehow,somewhere in many of the trends we have flagged for 2012.

Digital�Technology:�There�Is�No�Escape

•Sooner or later, digital technology shakes up the value chain ofevery industry, even solid, traditional industries.

•Why? Because tech-savvy entrepreneurs will always find a wayof using technology—robots, the Internet, microchips—toincrease value and/or reduce costs.

•Home appliances, cars, music, movies, photography, publishing,journalism, healthcare, telecoms, TV, retailing, sports—is thereany industry that hasn’t been affected?

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The�Smartest�Technologies�Ever?

•In this IT-obsessed era, everyone thinks digital. But we’reforgetting the fundamentals:

– How about the wheel?

– How about levers?

– How about vulcanized rubber?

•Put them together and we have the bicycle, arguably one of thesmartest, most efficient and most all-around beneficialcombinations of technologies ever invented.

•It’s not surprising that the experience of building bicyclesenabled the Wright brothers to build their pioneering Flyer.

Aligning�Bicycles�with�Trends

•We will look at some of the key trends that are relevant to bicycles,bicycle retailing and bicycle culture in the coming years.

•The opportunity for astute retailers is to find ways of aligning theirthinking and actions with the trends.

•Social and economic conditions are shaping up perfectly for bicycleretailers to be at the heart of a fundamental shift in the wayAmericans live and enjoy life.

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Health�andWellness�Challenge1.

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1. Health�and�Wellness�Challenge

Trend

•Vampires? Zombies? Far scarier is obesity, which brings diabetes,cardiovascular disease and cancers.

•The U.S. spends more than any other country on healthcare, fromexpensive diets, pills, surgery and gadgets to coaches for weightcontrol and growing depression and anxiety.

•Businesses of every size are finding ways to promote wellness (andthemselves); the gym, health and fitness clubs industry hasmaintained steady growth with membership initiatives such ascorporate discounts.

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1. Health�and�Wellness�Challenge

Opportunities

•People know they should exercise more, but gyms areexpensive, running brings risks of injury, and any regularexercise sacrifices time and convenience.

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Create ways to encourage customers tocycle more. One example: Montague’sCorporate Incentive Program, includingits “Drive and Cycle” concept.

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AnxiousParenting2.

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2.�Anxious�Parenting

Trend

•Every year, being a parent gets more complicated; this is theage of supermindful, high-anxiety parenting.

•There’s plenty to fret about, including too much screen timeindoors and too little physical activity, possibly leading tochildhood obesity and early-onset diabetes.

•Business and nonprofits are finding ways to help parents, likeShapedown’s weight management for young people

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2.�Anxious�Parenting

Opportunities

•Getting today’s children and teens into bicycling is a smart way ofguaranteeing a steady supply of customers now and in the future.

•Bear Creek Elementary School in Boulder, Colo., has increasedbicycling or walking to school from 25 percent to 70 percent in two years.

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Have answers for parents’ safetyconcerns at the ready, from developingsafety kits (lights, helmets, etc.) andsafety skills training to initiating orsupporting Safe Routes to School

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Eco�Awareness3.

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3. Eco�Awareness

Trend

•Bye-bye, trucks and SUVs. Growing numbers of Americans areshowing signs of eco awareness and even ecomania—yes, partlydriven by energy prices—that encompasses everything fromautomobiles to eco-friendly appliances and vacations.

•“Smart commuting” is gaining traction; take Commute Seattle,which runs workshops on themes such as local and federal taxexemptions and credits associated with employee commuteexpenses and programs.

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3. Eco�Awareness

Opportunities

•Forty percent of trips cover less than two miles, yet 87 percentof Americans use cars for those trips. If even slightly fewer peopleused bicycles, the environment would benefit. With gas pricesabove $3.20 for the past year, Americans are likely to be moreinterested than ever in bicycling.

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Make connections with eco-mindedindividuals and groups to explore possibleinitiatives or partnerships. (CaliforniaBicycle of La Jolla, for instance, burnishedits already stellar reputation when itmanned the refueling station for Bike toWork Day 2011.)

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4. Real�Good�for�Real�Estate

Trend

•Sagging property prices and negative equity have weighed onAmericans’ minds for five years.

•Yet realtors from places like Delaware, Pittsburgh, NorthCarolina and Vancouver report that being near bike linesand facilities tend to have a positive effect on prices andquality of life.

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4. Real�Good�for�Real�Estate

Opportunities

•Repurposing land (such as railroad beds) for cycling, boarding,skating and leisure is a smart community investment as gasprices soar and local budgets tighten.

•Identifying local bicycling-friendly initiatives and learning howyou might support them.

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Making the case with local developers andauthorities is easier with facts from otherplaces. Find great, relevant info fromBikes Belong (check out the Resourcessection).

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Value�vs.Valuable5.

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5. Value�vs.�Valuable

Trend

•Some consumers are dealing with the economy by looking forthe cheapest deals on everything, made easy with the Internet.

•But not everybody thinks “value” means lowest price—there’salso a yearning for things and experiences that feel valuable.

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Opportunities

•Products that are well designed, well made and work wellcreate a lasting sense of value, hence the price premium andcustomer loyalty of Apple—and certain bicycle makers.

•Services work the same way. Big Picture movie theater inSeattle surveyed moviegoers about their experience and startedmaking changes that very night. Most were tweaks that didn’tcost anything but got raves from customers as they left.

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Opportunities

•Retailers who understand and love their products and create acaring in-store environment give a valuable experience.

Find out what counts as valuable to yourcustomers and how it influences their buying.Ask them:• Why do you like shopping here?

• What have your experiences been like at otherstores?

• What are the most important improvements wecould make?

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Curation�toTackle�Overload6.

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6. Curation�to�Tackle�Overload

Trend

•Most people can’t handle the growing tidal wave of information giventheir limited time, energy and attention. Curation—compiling the must-have info on any topic and using deep knowledge to make sense ofit all for busy people—is becoming a valuable new skill and service.

•Porter’s photo specialty stores in Iowa date to 1917 but competewith national chains by carrying massive stock, offering a dealof the week, and providing a live chat for advice, contests and aYouTube channel for tutorials.

•Richardson Bike Mart in Dallas, the highest-voted shop in the U.S.,has built its reputation by eliminating uncertainty in buying andadding value at many points—everything from spending time to doa quick-fit on a trainer in the shop for test rides, to making refundsextremely easy (the store has a very low return rate, by the way).

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6. Curation�to�Tackle�Overload

Opportunities

•Cycling is one of many areas seeing huge numbers of newproducts and accessories—daunting for newcomers and evenoccasional riders who would like to get into it more.

•The sports footwear industry is a parallel: The best stores guidecustomers through the technicalities of shoes for different needsat various performance levels based on each customer’s needs.

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Check out which customer types andbicycling needs your store serves best,and which it could serve better. Then getcurating and giving your customers theinformation they most need.

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News�and�Love�of�Local7.

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7. News�and�Love�of�Local

Trend

•Consumers are increasingly paying attention to local news; nowonder 40 percent of all online ad spending was local in 2010,up from 34 percent in 2009.

•The trend is being driven by interactive and especially mobiledevices. Yahoo, Topix, Examiner.com and Patch are just a fewof those betting on it getting bigger.

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7. News�and�Love�of�Local

Opportunities

•Cycling is perfectly aligned: People who cycle develop moreconnections with and knowledge of all things local.

•As curators of cycling information, retailers can also become hubsfor local news, from conditions on routes to stores with goodoffers along the way to who’s hiring to events on the horizon.

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Your store should own the role as the localsource for all things cycling: events,places to ride, local cycling issues andmore. Do research to learn what topicsmatter (or should matter) to yourcommunity.

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Social�Media�IsNot�Going�Away8.

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8. Social�Media�Is�Not�Going�Away

Trend

•Social media keeps growing because it enables people to dowhat people like to do: Hook up and have conversations, even ifthey are typed rather than face to face.

•The number of over-50s using social media is quickly growing.

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8. Social�Media�Is�Not�Going�Away

Opportunities

•Unlike with traditional marketing and even websites, small businessescan get up and running on social media (Twitter, Facebook, Patch, etc.)quickly, easily and very cheaply—no marketing or IT specialists required.

•With just 15 to 20 minutes a day, you can post news and check up onwhat locals are saying, interact with them, build awareness and findinteresting connections.

•Take Butter Lane cupcakes of New York, which manages effective blogs, groups,tweets and customer service through Postling, a one-stop social media manager.

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Check out @lacbc (L.A. County BicycleCoalition), @pedalchic and@TempeBicycle, then set a target formaking new connections.

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Boomers’New�Values9.

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9. Boomers’ New�Values

Trend

•The vanguard of the 70 million–plus boomers is now well past65, while the tail end is heading to 50, a large market ofAmericans who expect to stay young as long as possible.

•Boomers are increasingly feeling vulnerable to aging, financialproblems, weak home equity and talk of entitlement cuts—andthey’re shifting from consumerism toward more purposefulactivities with social engagement and environmental consciousness.

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9. Boomers’ New�Values

Opportunities

•Cycling is perfectly aligned with (re-)emerging boomer values:Variants such as recumbents, comfort class and e-bikes arefinding a keen market among older riders.

•Bicycle retailers who love their work, know their products andenjoy relating to their customers have ideal attributes toconnect with boomers.

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Make sure your staff (average agenationwide: 20-somethings) is consciouslyaware of the nuances of selling to andworking with “older” customers.

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10. Digital�Detox

Trend

•Millions of Americans are finding that their digital gadgets arenot just useful but also addictive.

•In a major survey, we found that 31 percent of adults(including 34 percent of those over age 46) rated themselvesextremely or very worried about addiction to and overrelianceon technology, and another 31 percent (29 percent of over-46s)were moderately worried.

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10. Digital�Detox

Opportunities

•There’s no way to cycle on anything but a stationary bike ifyou’ve got your eyes on a screen.

•Bicycles might have a few tech add-ons (like GPS) to keep theaddicts happy, but mostly bicycles are reassuringly physicaland mechanical—ideal for a spell of digital detox.

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Target certain audiences to help morepeople detox. Try offering casual, shortergroup rides in addition to the traditional18mph+ club rides. Or rides for groups thatmight prefer a more relaxed, conversationalpace. Or women’s-only rides. And so on.

And�So …•The trends are promising for bicycle retailers.

•Bikes sit in the sweet spot where many needs and desiresoverlap—getting exercise, getting out and about, savingmoney, being environmentally aware, feeling connected toyour community, loving smart design and feeling virtuousamong them.

•Just over a century ago, bicycle makers’ ingenuity usheredin the revolutionary new era of flight. The time isincreasingly ripe for cyclists to help shape a new revolution,a social one in which Americans make smarter use of theultimate hybrid vehicle.

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#thankyou