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DNV GL © 2015 SAFER, SMARTER, GREENERDNV GL © 2015
Beyond Integration: three dynamics reshaping renewables and the grid
2
20 May 2015
DNV GL © 2015
These are interesting times…
3
“The days of ‘monopolized’ power are coming to an end...
get smarter or get out of the way”
Energy Management Supervisor, Government/related agency, North America
Thinking big picture…
DNV GL © 20154
Policy ProductionTransmission
& DistributionUse
DNV GL - Energy
Power testing, inspections and
certification
Renewables advisory services
Renewables certification
Electricity transmission and distribution
Smart grids and smart cities
Energy market and policy design
Energy management and operations
services
Energy efficiency services
Software
Policy Production Transmission & distribution Use
DNV GL © 2015
1665 responses
from across the electricity value chain
10 questions on a high renewables electricity system
5
Online survey
Quantitative & qualitative data
Interviews
TEPCO, E.On, NYISO, DONG
Survey participant profile
60% senior/manager level or above
Three dynamics
framework
71 countries represented (dark blue)
Expert input
DNV GL © 2015
Finding 1: Change is coming
6
Four fifths of respondents believe that 70% renewables can
be achieved before 2050
QuestionHow quickly can the transition be made to a high renewables electricity system (70% by generation) which is also secure and affordable in your market(s) of interest?
DNV GL © 2015
Finding: Policymakers and system/network operators are vital, but have different requirements
7
Question: Whose involvement do you think is most vital to the transition to a renewables-based electricity system (70% by generation) in your market(s) of interest? (Choose up to 3 answers)
Most
vital
DNV GL © 2015
Finding: Policymakers and system/network operators are vital, but have different requirements
8
Question: Whose involvement do you think is most vital to the transition to a renewables-based electricity system (70% by generation) in your market(s) of interest? (Choose up to 3 answers)
Most
vital
“The whole
industry is about
consumers, politics
and finance”
DNV GL © 2015
Finding: Policymakers and system/network operators are vital, but have different requirements
9
Question: Whose involvement do you think is most vital to the transition to a renewables-based electricity system (70% by generation) in your market(s) of interest? (Choose up to 3 answers)
“The whole
industry is about
consumers, politics
and finance”“Intermittent
resources only
add complexity
and cost”
Policymakers and system/network operators place diverging demands on renewables: affordability and reliability
DNV GL © 2015
Dynamic 1: We need a convergence of metrics
10
New economic metrics will converge the needs of
policymakers and system operators
DNV GL © 2015
Finding: There is a split between the renewables sector and system/network operators
11
Question: The transition to a renewables-based electricity system (70% by generation) poses the greatest challenges/ opportunities to which stakeholders in your market(s) of interest? (Choose up to 3 answers)
Note: For simplicity, only 6 of
the 13 groups are plotted
System and network
operators feel challenged,
particularly at the
distribution level.
TSO: Transmission System Operator
DSO: Distribution System Operator
OEM: Original Equipment Manufacturer
IPP: Independent Power Producer
Perceived opportunity
Perc
eiv
ed c
hallenge
DNV GL © 2015
Finding: Grid is king
12
We move from
‘generation is king’ to
‘grid is king’
Question: Whose involvement do you think is most vital to the transition to a renewables-based electricity system (70% by generation) in your market of interest? (Choose up to 3 answers)
TSO: Transmission system operator
DSO: Distribution system operator
OEM: Original equipment manufacturer
IPP: Independent power producer
Importance according to whole group
Self-a
ssesed
import
ance
(% selected in top 3)
(% w
ho s
ele
cte
d t
heir
ow
n g
roup in t
op 3
)
Note: For simplicity, only 6 of
the 13 groups are plotted
DNV GL © 2015
Dynamic 2: We need a rebalancing of rules
13
New rules will rebalance opportunities andchallenges for developers and system operators
DNV GL © 2015
Finding: Storage and smart grids are believed to be the most important enablers
14
Question
Question: Which changes to technology, markets, behaviour and regulation do you believe are most important in your market(s) of interest for integrating a high share of renewables (70% by generation) in a cost-effective and secure way? (Choose up to 3 answers)
Two thirds select storage in their top 3 most important enablers.
Smart grids come second.
Most
important
DNV GL © 2015
Dynamic 3: We need an expansion of horizons
15
New entrepreneurial models will expand the
electricity business into the internet of energy
DNV GL © 2015
Beyond cost, Renewables can add value – if given a reason
17
IN
DEVELOPMENT
Plan as a grid
citizen
IN
UNCERTAINTIES
Reduce and
manage
Examples:
• Improved forecasting
• Real-time communications infrastructure
Examples:
• Site plant closer to load and/or grid infrastructure
• Design plant layout to optimize generation timing
IN
OPERATION
Provide grid
services
Examples:
• Reactive power support
• Synthetic inertia on turbines
Technology is not the limiting factor
Think beyond cost, toward value