Political trends in Election Campaign

In June 2012

Presentation of the Sant Maral foundation Prepared by: Werner Prohl L. Sumati

Ulan Bator, 25. June 2012

“If elections were held tomorrow, would you participate?” 2008 May Countryside Ulan Bator Nationwide “yes” 88.2 75.5 83.1 “no” 5.7 12.7 8.5 (Don’t know) 5.7 9.8 7.3 (No answer) .5 2.0 1.1

“Would you participate in 2012 Parliament Elections?” 2012 June

Countryside Ulan Bator Nationwide “Yes” 87.8 75.3 82.8 “No” 8.3 14.0 10.6

(No answer) 1.0 2.8 1.7 (Don’t know) 2.8 8.0 4.9

Elections turnout in 2008: 76%

The representative sample of 1000 respondents from the capital Ulan Bator and Suhebaatar, Arhangay, Selenge, Hovd aymaks (distributed proportionally by 4 regional divisions and Ulan Bator) was collected from June 6 to June 14, 2012. “Which party would you vote for?

“Would you participate in 2012

Parliament Elections?” Total

YES NO Mongolian Peoples Party 29.1% 12.1% 28.2% Democratic Party 43.0% 36.4% 42.6% MPRP, MNDP Coalition 22.9% 33.3% 23.4% Civic Will - Green Party 2.9% 6.1% 3.1% Republican Party - Third Power Coalition 1.3% 6.1% 1.6%

MTUP (Traditional United) .2% .2%

Other Party .7% 6.1% .9% Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Trend from April to June:

April June Mongolian Peoples Party 31.9 25.2 Democratic Party 33.4 38.3 MPRP, MNDP Coalition 12.1 21.3 Civic Will - Green Party 3.7 2.9 Other 3.6 2.6 Independent 15.4 9.5 Total 100% 100% Don’t know, non-response, missing(% of all sample)

48.1% 32.5%

From 2008 Elections to 2012 Elections:

May 2008

April 2009

April 2010

May 2011

April 2012

June 2012

MPP 43,4% 43,8% 41,0% 38,6% 37,7% 27,9%

MPRP/MNDP 6,3% 14,3% 23,6%

DP 42,5% 49,0% 46,1% 41,9% 39,4% 42,4%

Other 14,3% 6,5% 12,9% 13,1% 8,3% 6,2%

Year Percentage of votes Number of

received mandates

% of all mandates

Party %

2008 MPRP 43,4 % 45 59 %

DP 42,5 % 27 36 %

2004 MPRP 51,4 % 37 49%

Motherland Dem. Coalition 39,2 % 35 46%

2000 MPRP 53,3 % 72 95%

MDNSP Coalition 12,0 % 1 1%

MSDP 7,7 % -

MNDP-MRDP Coalition 13,3 % 1 1%

1996 MPRP 30,8 % 25 33%

Democratic Union 50,9 % 50 66%

Why to vote for this party :

Vote for ...

MPP MPRP/ MNDP

DP

Only this party can solve the main problem of the country

30.9% 35.2% 37.4%

I don't trust other parties 16.0% 10.1% 7.0%

I always vote for this party 22.3% 18.9% 23.1%

Pro

test-

vote

rs

As I am critical about state management, I decided to vote for this party

3.2% 16.4% 8.7%

No principal difference for which party you vote

8.0% 2.5% 7.3%

I support the candidate of this party 14.9% 12.6% 13.6%

Voters distribution since Elections 2008 (parties) April 2012

2008 Next Elections

MPP(MPRP)

DP For diff. parties

Mongolian People’s Party

63.6% 5.8% 23.7%

Democratic Party 5.6% 69.8% 19.0% MPRP-MNDP union 17.8% 5.2% 11.2% Civic Will - Green Party .9% 3.7% 9.5% Republican Party .7% .9% Other Party 1.8% 3.3% 3.4% Independent 9.8% 11.3% 33.2% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Voters distribution since Elections 2008 (parties) June 2012

2008 Next Elections

MPP DP For diff. parties

Mongolian People’s Party

54.8% 5.4% 25.8%

Democratic Party 6.8% 78.8% 40.9% MPRP, MNDP Coalition 37.2% 10.4% 18.2% Civic Will - Green Party 1.2% 1.3% 7.6% Third Power Coalition 2.1% 6.1% MTUP .4% Other Party 1.7% 1.5% Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Mongolian Parliament: total 76 Seats

48 Direct mandates

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

28 Mandates from proportional votes

absolute Majority: 39 Seats

Scenario 1: The DP and MPRP/MNDP union continue to gain, other parties

decline, Civic Will/Green Party will not exceed 5 % threshold, small parties and independents will get 2 direct mandates; DP will get 75 % of all Direct mandates; Distribution of direct mandates between MPP and MPRP/MNDP in proportion 7 to 4

Distribution of

28 proportional

seats

MPP 8 Seats MPRP / MNDP 7 Seats DP 13 Seats CW / GP(Minors) –

Distribution of

48 Direct

mandates

MPP 6 Seats MPRP / MNDP 4 Seats DP 36 Seats Minors 2 Seats

Total distribution of seats (Scenario 1):

MPP 14 Seats MPRP / MNDP 11 Seats DP 49 Seats Minors 2 Seats

Scenario 2: No changes in voting pattern, Civic Will/Green Party

exceeds 5 % threshold and receive 1 direct mandate; DP gets 60 % of direct mandates; MPP proportion to MPRP/MNDP is 10 to 8.

Distribution of

28 proportional

seats

MPP 8 Seats MPRP / MNDP 7 Seats DP 12 Seats Minors 1 Seat

Distribution of

48 direct

mandates

MPP 10 Seats MPRP / MNDP 8 Seats DP 28 Seats Minors 2 Seats

Total distribution of seats (Scenario 2):

MPP 20 Seats MPRP / MNDP 13 Seats DP 40 Seats Minors 3 Seats