PowerPoint Presentation

Robert Falco, PhD

Professor of Mechanical EngineeringDirector of the Institute for Energy ResourcefulnessPresident, Solar Clean Fuels, LLCWhy alcohols will replace gasoline and diesel to be the fuels of the future?

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How do we react to new technology?

Those that fail to learn from history, are doomed to repeat it.Winston Churchill

OutlineWhy we want to get off gasoline and dieselSupplyHealthEnvironment EconomySecurityOverview of the alternativesElectric carsCost of CNG/LNG from natural gasEthanol EconomyMethanol EconomyFuture Directions

Our oil production and our need

GulfOn-shoreAlaska

ChinaUnited StatesDemand growth from China is much greater than from the USTHE DEMANDChina is growing much faster than the US8.3% -- 200910.9% -- 20107%

Twice our carbon footprint by 2015

Goldman Saks 22 April 09 8.3% 2009 and 10.9% 2010

1.32 billion vs 300,000,000 = 4.3x

Chapter 1. The long and short of supply and demand - Demand

The demand picture has changed greatly in the last few years. The curve shows the US demand versus that of China. Focusing on the US growth we can see it has been essentially linear (light blue curve fit) over a century. This includes the great depression and two world wars, so we can project it over the next 20 years with confidence.The rapid growth of China clearly shows that we cant ignore it. It is growing non-linearly, and its rate cant be accurately predicted based on its past history. Thus, we conservatively assume linear growth at 7%.(It should be noted that China grew at 12% last year and is predicted to grow at 8.5% this year. China has already surpassed the US in total carbon usage, and will be using 2 times our consumption in the next fourteen years (at the projected growth rate of 7%). Usage = (1.05)^14 = 1.98 (2 times). Five percent is the difference in China vs the US growth rate. In 20 years (the period this presentation focuses on) China will be using 2.65 times the energy we use.

INDIAs increasing at 5-7%/year ( CHINA 5-7%/year)Has a ten year plan of 10% growth rate

So worlds economy is facing two simultaneous challenges: The end of cheap and easy oil and the explosive demand for fuel in developing countries.Demand for carbon has already exceeded that of the US.

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Number of cars will increase by 4 times in 40 years

Average Best & Average WorstVisibility Impairment in the Phoenix Area

Figure 9. ADEQ Air Quality Annual Report 2008

The correlation of oil prices and unemployment over 45 years

1965 2015

Rapid Societal DeathOur commerce, and American life as we know it, would stop on the dime, if OPEC wanted it to.

Gasoline additivesand our health During WWI, it was discovered that you can add a chemical called tetraethyl lead to gasoline and significantly improve its octane rating.

Low level exposure to children:Lowered IQ, reading and learning disabilities, impaired hearing, hyperactivity, impaired growth.Acute exposure in adults: Blindness, brain damage, kidney disease, cancers, death

Never directly legislated out for health reasons!

Prohibited because it destroyed catalytic converters!

Lower octane grades of gasoline could be made usable by adding this chemical. This led to the widespread use of "ethyl" or "leaded" gasoline.

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MTBE replaced lead in so called Reformulated Gasoline (RFG)MTBE has been used in U.S. gasoline at low levels since 1979 to replace TEL to increase its octane rating and help prevent engine knocking. It was used in combination with aromatics like benzene and toluene. Gasoline can contain as much as 10 percent to 15 percent MTBE. Gasoline may contain up to 50% aromaticsThe main problem with MTBE is that it is thought to be carcinogenic and it mixes easily with water.

Benzene: It gets to you in more than the fumes you breath when you fill upWe all know about the filler cap regulations,but,the benzene emissions that result from the catalytic converter acting on the emissions is 2 orders of magnitude worse when the car is either cold or is accelerating.

At the minimum turn your head away from the pump.

Woolsey12

Benzine risk for Leukemia WHO: 1 part in a million is considered acceptable.In 2001 EPA estimated that we had 10 X this limit in the US.2005 Swiss study calculated that 100x is emitted from the tailpipe of an accelerating vehicle.

What did we replace the MTBE with - EthanolEthanol is OK health wiseEthanol made from corn has many problemsEthanol can be made from other sourcesOther alcohols can supplement it. Methanol.BIGGEST problem: vehicles are designed with gasoline as the standard, making alcohols poor substitutes

We must get rid of legacy practices and proceduresIn moving forward sensibly we must have a plan for the futureIn moving forward we can wean ourselves from oil gently, but with the full intent to wean ourselvesFor all of the reasons given, we must make gasoline and diesel less and less of the fuel mix we use.So in our transition we must focus on oil in the future as an additive, NOT as the standard we are modifying.

OutlineWhy we want to get of gasoline and dieselHealthEnvironment EconomySecuritySupplyOverview of the alternativesElectric carsCost of CNG/LNG from natural gasEthanol EconomyMethanol EconomyFuture Directions

Electric Cars Excessive costs High CO2 limited rangeWTW GHG worse than gasoline ---- coalNuclear not happening in the next few decadesNatural gas burned to make electricity vs. used directly or converted to a liquid (methanol/ethanol)60% loss at power plant + 7-10% in transmissionBattery costsRangeDurabilitySafetyEvery decade a 10% improvement is made in batteries

Fuel cellsPEM -- very high costs, but can work with methanolDMFC even higher costs methanol fuelSOFC lowest costs lowest reliability can use methanolBottom line: 2 decades for SOFC, and discovery for the PEM and DMFC

CNG/LNG

CNG proponents slogan

Clean, Abundant and American -- YESAffordable -- NO.

Storage tanks in a CNG automobile

$7,500 - $12,000 additional costs

24 / 7 CNG self serve pump for cars on the UCLA campus

$300,000to$500,000per dispenser toinstall

Costs to US to replace gasoline with CHG/LNGIt cost about 100x as much to convert to CNG/LNG as it does to make a Flex Fueled car that can use any combination of gasoline, ethanol and/or methanol.Our gross national debt is ~ $14 T, our gross national product is ~ $14T, CNC/LNG would cost ~$3T, or, 21.5% of GNPThe interstate Hwy system cost 1.4% of GNP in 1958Peak WWII spending was 44% of our GNP CNG/LNG is NOT a societal solution

What CAN we do?

Drop-in liquid fuels are the way to goIf drop-in is not feasible, then liquid fuels that need a minimal modificationGM has produced four million of the eleven million flexfuel cars now on American roads. GM's Vice Chairman Tom Stephens says it adds "as much as $70 to the production cost" of a car to make it a flexfuel car.Thursday May 26, 2011

5/30/12Institute for Energy Resourcefulness

Why not Alcohol?

Until (Rockefeller supported) ProhibitionHenry Ford made the Model T both alcohol and gasolinecompatible for 2 decades.

Ethanol EconomyStrong proponentsCorn StatesBrazilian sugarcane industryEquatorial belt countriesSources:Sugarcane and starch (corn)CelluloseNatural gasPerformanceICE and DieselFuel Cells

Water usageFertilizersBiomass limitWheel to well CO2Overall economyFeedstock is 80%Tail pipe emissionsToxicity and FlammabilityDistributionThe Biomass limit means that ethanol made from crops can only meet 20-30% of our needs

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Ethanol/Gasoline Vehicles that get MORE power and BETTER mileage

Proof of the pudding ICEs can run better on alcoholsSaab Biopower lineBy reprogramming the on-board computerBy using a turbocharger to increase the CR of the engineBy changing the fuel system components to handle alcoholsSaab increased the HP of their 2liter, 150HP engine, to 180HPAt the same time they increased the torque by 40Nm

Saab performance curves

RON research octane no.

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A further exampleThe Dutch Koenigsegg CCXR gets 1/3 more power running on E85 over its gasoline model.

Saab demonstration of what is possible with alcohols

Saab President talking about the future of cars running on alcohols

A big step further E100Saab E100 Using 100% ethanol, and optimizing the engine for it, Saab took a 2 liter 150 HP engine and had it output 300 HP. EPA showed that a VW TDI diesel engine could run more efficiently on 100% methanol or 100% ethanol. Could manufacture engines more cheaply than dieselsMIT pointed out that a 15 liter engine could be replaced with a 7 liter engine.

. Just used the compression ratio

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Ethanol can give engines diesel engine efficiencies without the need for high pressure injection systems and either DPF or Urea NOx reducing exhaust treatment.

We can replace diesel engines with equally efficient alcohol run spark ignition engines, and not need the particulates, NOx or bio-diesel.DieselSpark ignited E100

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At E30 the mileage in an optimized engine is better than with gasoline alone Combined with an optimized conventional drivetrain, the efficiency gain shown in the previous slide for E30 should yield an estimated 10% - 12% gain in fuel economy. Thus it more than compensates for the approximately 8% loss in fuel energy density of E30 vs. straight gasoline. EPA

Swedish diesel buses running on 95% bio-ethanol

has been running for 15 years

Ethanol has 2/3 the energy per unit volume of gasoline

Progression of E85 fuel economy in US carsBecause ethanol contains less energy than gasoline, fuel economy is reduced for most 2002 and earlier American FFVs by about 30%.Most after 2003 lose only 15-17% or less.Some of he newest American vehicles achieve only a 5-15% loss.

Are we being manipulated by business directed engineering?In one test, a Chevy Tahoe flex-fuel vehicle averaged 18 MPG [U.S. gallons] for gasoline and 13 MPG for E85, or 28% fewer MPG than gasoline. In another test, however, a fleet of Ford Tauruses averaged only about 6% fewer miles per gallon in the ethanol-based vehicles as compared to traditional, gas-powered Tauruses.The Honda Civic FFV, in Brazil, when running on E100, generates 140HP at 6,200 rpm and 174 Nm of torque at 4,300 rpm. Fill it with an E22 mix and those numbers only drop to 138 HP and 172 Nm (this torque peak arrives at 5,000 rpm).With the Honda Fit FFV, in Brazil, on E100, it makes 83 HP at 5,700 rpm and 119Nm of torque at 2,800 rpm. On E22, it drops to 80 HP and 116 Nm at identical engine speeds.The aforementioned facts leads some to believe that the FFV engine is more of an infant technology rather than fully mature.Others, believe we are being manipulated!

Solar Methanol will use no water

Non-Corn EthanolSugarcane The entire equatorial belt + others (i.e., Hawaii etc.)Sugar beet temperate zone climatesThe Celanese process: ethanol from natural gasCellulosic ethanolJoule process: ethanol from waste water, CO2 and sunlight1 Coskata, Dupont Danisco, Fulcrum Bio -- corn cobs , switchgrass2 Mascoma, Range Fuels, Dyadic enzymes wood, etc.3 POET, Iogen, Abengoa wheat straw, corn cobsResearch Institute of Innovative Technology and Honda

enzymes42

The Methanol EconomyBroad range of sources:Methane, bio-methane, organic wastesUseable in both Spark Ignition Engines and DieselsCan be mixed with ethanol and gasoline

Higher octaneBurns coolerHigher Flash pointBurns cleanerEmissionsFuel for furnaces, turbinesFuel for fuel cells.

The cheapest liquid fuel, with the largest number of non-food sources

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EPA Brake Thermal Efficiency Comparisonengine fueled on 100% methanolin spark ignition modesame engine run in its native diesel mode (1.9L VW TDI diesel)

Typical 1.9L gasoline engine has 22-25% BTE

What Can This Mean for Fleet Economics?Reduce engine system costs (engine plus exhaust treatment) by $10,000 - $15,000 MIT study.The engines cost less (diesels are more expensive)No need for either the Diesel Particulate Filter or the Urea Filter (NOx) Reduced maintenanceFuel costs less Better mileage up to 5% better fuel economyThe Saab 9-5 gets 15% better fuel economy with a turbocharger

Even Ethanol/Gasoline mixtures as low as E30 can give engine efficiencies close to that of a diesel.

We can replace diesel engineswith equally efficient alcohol run spark ignition engines, and not need the particulates, NOx or bio-diesel.EPA results

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MIT Engine Laboratory Study on Methanol Use in Heavy DutyVehiclesThis makes possible highly downsized alcohol engines (e.g. a 15 liter diesel engine could potentially be replaced by an SI engine with a displacement of 7 liters or less).

Enables operation with power densities up to three times that which can be provided by diesel engines.

Methanol has the energy per unit volume of gasoline

WTW GHG Emissions of methanol production

Gasoline WTW GHG

Sweden,Germany

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Safety

METHANOLGASOLINEIn the California test (15 years), with over 200 million miles of methanoldriving, there was not a single case of accidental methanol poisoning. For M100 a 90% reduction in fuel related automotive fires is projected. P. A. Machiele, Summary Of The Fire Safety Impacts of Methanol as a Transportation Fuel, SAE International paper 901113

Bio-Methanol ProcessesSchwarze Pumpe 100,000 tons from sewage sludge/industrial wastesBioMCN methanol from glycerinHaldor-Topsoe black liquor; Sweden, MichiganLandfill gas methanol from biogas - ADHuman wastes methanol from biogas ADFrom wood waste pyrolysis

A GEM of an idea.To enable us to move to high % methanol use before cellulosic ethanol comes along

The GEM IdeaFind the blend of Gasoline, Ethanol and Methanol that:The 11,000,000 existing US FFVs can use nowMake the octane rating exactly the same across a range of GEM mixturesThe volumetric energy content constant across the blendsThe latent heat constant across the blends

Thus the driver and the sensors do NOT know anything has changed,butINSTANTY, 11 million vehicles can use up to 50% methanol.

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GEM (gasoline, ethanol, methanol) mixtures.How to use current cars to move to methanolNOW!

Blends at any position along the x-axis will give the same performance; going from 55% methanol and 45% gasoline (0% ethanol) to 85% ethanol and 15% ethanol.

Alcohol Cars/Engines

EPA AlcoholTest EngineSaab Aero X

Lotus Exige 270E200HP 400 HP

Brazilian 4 fuels Fiat

Alcohol Cars E20-E100Honda in Brazil introduced in 2006With its flexible-fuel system, Honda believes that it has essentially conquered all the known drawbacks of using ethanol:problems with cold startsvariations in fuel economy and emissions are all addressed with the new system.

Designed to operate on fuel grades ranging from E20 all the way up to E100.

The result, according to Honda, is that its FFVs will have performance and fuel economy ratios that nearly equal those of their gasoline-only engines.

An adjustable blend fuel pump in South Dakota

There are 2900 E85 filling stations in the USWalmart is talking about adding 9000 moreWe need dispensers that can dispense what you need on demand.

Just like this one.

Costs of equivalent amount of energy. Methanol is cheaper than either gasoline or ethanol

Gasoline = $3.90

Ethanol = $3.44*1.25= $4.30

Methanol (estimate) = $3.00

Furthermore, contract pricing is substantially less than market prices.

California methanol costs:The price of methanol today is $1.30 galThis is a different market than the oil market!

Grams CO2 equivalent vs fuels

OutlineWhy we want to get of gasoline and dieselHealthEnvironment EconomySecuritySupplyOverview of the alternativesElectric carsCost of CNG/LNG from natural gasEthanol EconomyMethanol EconomyFuture Directions

Future TrendsAlcohol ICE EnginesEthanol or Methanol engines with high efficiency (>40% peak) Lends itself to exhaust thermal energy recovery in the form of chemical and mechanical energy.

Combined Alcohol + heat recovery system approach fuel cell efficiencies (>55% peak) at a significantly lower cost.

Hybrids with tiny alcohol ICE

Methanol reforming hydrogen for PEM fuel cells

Anaerobic digestion of organic wastes alcohols

Pyrolysis of organic wastes alcohols

Direct enzyme solar transformation to ethanol - Joule

Solar dry reforming of methane to methanol

Direct methanol fuel cells

Hybrid-ethanol or methanol vehicle can run at maximum efficiency ALL the time.

Hydraulic HybridOperating LineUS EPA StudyMethanol would create a 43% efficiency range for the hydrid operation

Biomass to Methanol

Pyrolysis is a thermochemical decomposition of organic material at elevatedtemperatureswithout theparticipationof oxygen.

Currently possible renewable methanol production process5/30/12Institute for Energy Resourcefulness

65 Landfill

COWS------ > BIOGAS----- > GASIFIER -- > METHANOL---- > VEHICLES NET EFFICIENCY = .70*.85 = 59.5%

Methanol from CO2 and hydrogen

Future renewable solar/bio-methanol process5/30/12Institute for Energy Resourcefulness

Maximum theoretical efficiency = 1.3*.85 = 1.10%

67 CH4 + CO2 2H2 +2CO; CH3OH H =-90.6kJmol

Main TakeawayDo not be hung up with our problems with corn ethanol alcohols are in your future: both ethanol and methanol from non-food origins.These will be cheaper, not vie for land or water or fertilizerAlcohols are the ONLY replacement for oil in Internal Combustion Engines.Alcohols are the best fuel for fuel cellsHistorically speaking most new technology that is introduced to society encounters great emotional barriers.

The Technology is HERE!

Do we needto bring outthe cavalry to move thisforward?

Sustainable oil replacement

100%10% oiltoday

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What We Must Do NowEncourage auto companies to come clean about fuel capabilities of current cars, both Flex Fueled and gasoline.Marshall our national desire to be independent of the noose around our necks that gasoline dependence is.Think about what you can do to get this on the national political stage.Prepare for alcohols by:1) Having the auto companies make vehicles that can use them.2) Telling your representatives that you see them as a solution3) Tell your local government to investigate them.If we get no response ask congress to pass the fuel neutral Open Fuels Standard Act. Remember ethyl lead! You wont miss your daily dose of benzene!

ConclusionsWe can continuously wind down our use of oil, while at the same time improving performance, reducing pollution and costs.Mixed alcohols are our future fuel for both ICE and Fuel Cells.They are in our system already, and their use can be increased rapidly.They will be made from corn and natural gas firstThen they will be made from organic wastes, and algae, and processed cleanly using solar, nuclear and wind energy.We will be healthier, greener, and self sufficient.We will ultimately run very efficient cars, with tiny engines and/or methanol fuel cells that are CO2 neutral and with have very low emissions.

Contact

Bob FalcoInstitute for Energy Resourcefulnessrfalco@energyresourcefulness.org

For more information