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March 2014 Presentation by Guy Dauncey. www.earthfuture.com How will global transportation operate when we cease using oil?
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Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Transportation without Oil A Vision of the Future
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Climate ChangeWhat is your view?
A: It’s a very serious looming crisisB: I’m confused, not sure what to make of itC: It’s overblown. Earth’s climate has always been variable
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Transportation without Oil
What is your view? A: Yes, I believe it’s possibleB: I don’t know if it’s possibleC: No, it is not possible.
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Transportation in the Past
We have been walking for 4 million years
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Transportation in the Past
We have been riding horses for 6,000 years
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
The 13th Century
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
The 15th Century
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
The 17th Century
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
The 19th Century
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
New York, 1894
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
The First Modern OilPetrolia, Ontario 1858
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Spindletop Texas, 1903
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Thomas Parker electric car, 1880s
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Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
The 20th Century
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
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The 21st Century
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
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We love you mama
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Mama, waaah! Where are you?
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
1: The Death Toll
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Globally, in 2013, 1.24 million people died in road accidents
3,400 people die every day= 13 major aircraft crashes every day
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Road deaths per 100,000 peopleIf everyone drove as safely as the
British, there would be 192,500 road deaths a year
= 2 major aircraft crashes every day
Eritrea: 40Thailand: 38Canada: 7UK: 2.75
Bicycle
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
2: Air Pollution
About 21,000 Canadians die
prematurely from the ill effects of air pollution each year, compared to 2,400
from traffic crashes.
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Paris, March 2014
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Diesel exhaust…
Deaths from lung cancer increase by 8% for every 10 mg of fine particulate matter per cubic meter
New York: 16 mg Chicago: 18 mg
Los Angeles: 20 mgParis: 30 mg
Paris 2014: 140Cairo: 159 mgNew Delhi:
177 mgBeijing: 120 to 473 mg
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Diesel exhaust contributes to more than 125,000 cases of cancer a year,
almost 9% of all cancer cases in the US.
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Formaldehyde Recognized carcinogen. Carbon tetrachloride Recognized carcinogen. Ranked as one of the most hazardous
compounds to ecosystems and human health. Aniline Recognized carcinogen. Methanol Suspected carcinogen. Benzene Recognized carcinogen. Acetaldehyde Recognized carcinogenToluene-2, 6-diisocyanate Recognized carcinogen.
Ranked as one of the most hazardous compounds to human health. Napthalene Recognized carcinogen. Ethylbenzene Recognized carcinogen. Styrene Suspected carcinogen. 1,3 Butadiene Recognized carcinogen. Toluene Recognized developmental toxicant.Toluen-2, 4-diisocyanate Recognized carcinogen. 2,6-Dinitrotoluene Recognized carcinogen. Phosphorous (yellow or white) Ranked as one of the most hazardous compounds to ecosystems
and human health. Dinitrotoluene (mixed isonomers) Suspected carcinogen. Chromium and its compounds Suspected carcinogen. Cobalt and its compounds Recognized carcinogen. Manganese and its compounds Ranked as one of the most hazardous compounds to human health. Nickel and its compounds Recognized carcinogen
“Found in diesel engine exhaust”
Assembled by Leo Petrilli, Windsor, OntarioCommission for Environmental Cooperation Report
Children’s Health and the Environment in North America
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
3: Oil Spills
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TransMountain Pipeline Oil BreakBurnaby, 2007
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Alberta PipelineIncidents 1975-2013
29,229 incidents
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4: Ecocide
Garth Lenz
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Garth Lenz
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Guy Dauncey 2011www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
5: War
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6: The Climate Emergency
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Guy Dauncey 2011www.earthfuture.com
As we burn the fossil fuels…
Guy Dauncey 2007Guy Dauncey 2007www.earthfuture.cowww.earthfuture.com m
CO2 CO2 CO2
CO2
CO2 CO2
100 million tonnes a day = 4 million tonnes an hour = 67,000 tonnes a minute = 1,000 tonnes a second
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Guy Dauncey 2011www.earthfuture.com
+ 2˚C rise
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The last time the world was 3°C warmer
the sea level was 25 metres higher
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Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
2 metres
10 metres
18 metres
25 metres
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
1 metre sea-level rise http://flood.firetree.net
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
3 metres sea-level rise http://flood.firetree.net
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20 metres sea-level rise http://flood.firetree.net
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Guy Dauncey 2011www.earthfuture.com
The Teeny-Weeny Ever-So-Brief
150-Year Age of Oil
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Guy Dauncey 2011www.earthfuture.com
Neolithic EraAncient Egypt
Roman EmpireIslamic Golden Age
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
The Age of Oil……………………………………….
The last 10,000 years
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2011www.earthfuture.com
The last 10,000 years...................................................
What happens here,when we stop using oil?
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2011www.earthfuture.com
A billion yearsNeolithic Era: 8,000 yearsAncient Egypt: 3,000 yearsRoman Empire: 1,000 yearsIslamic Golden Age: 600 yearsAge of Oil: 150 years
The Sun does not begin to turn into a Red Giant for more than a billion years.
That’s 100,000 periods of 10,000 years
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2011www.earthfuture.com
A billion years
The Sun does not begin to turn into a Red Giant for more than a billion years.
And with every passing year, solar technology will improve
and get cheaper.
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Beyond Oil Awakening the Future
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
BCSEA 2012www.bcsea.org
BCSEA vision is a sustainable future in which all of BC’s
energy is green and renewable.
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
How Are We Using the Oil?Cars & light trucks 40%Heavy trucks 13%Flying 8%Shipping 2.5%Asphalt 3%Rail freight 1%Recreational 1%Military 1.5%
TOTAL TRANSPORT 71%
Non-transport uses 29%
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
1 5% shift to walking
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Neighbourhood Walkability Auditwww.walklive.org
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
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Istanbul,Turkey
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com Toronto Walking School Bus
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
The Journey Beyond Oil
Cars & light trucks5% shift to walking = 95% of oil demand
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
2 15% shift to cycling
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
In Holland, 40% of all traffic movement is by bicycle
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Safe bike lanes and routes Good bike parking Cycling education in schools
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Vancouver, Howe Street
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City Bike Sharing
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Granville Street BridgeVancouver’s Future
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Proposed Bike Park, Chongming Bike City, Shanghai
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Electric Bikes
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
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Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
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Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
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The Copenhagen Wheel
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The Copenhagen Wheel
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The Elf E-Bike www.organictransit.com
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Tony’s Trailers www.tonystrailers.com
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.comTony’s Trailers www.tonystrailers.com
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com Tony’s Trailers www.tonystrailers.com
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The Journey Beyond Oil
Cars & light trucks5% shift to walking = 95% of oil demand15% shift to cycling = 80% …
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
3 v15% shift to transit and LRT
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com 100% Electric Buses
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Hasselt, BelgiumFree transit, included in city taxes1996-2006 13-fold increase in ridership
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Real-time electronic bus stops
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Bus shelter in Taiwan
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Stockholm – 200 buses run on biogas from sewage treatment
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Umea, SwedenFast-Charging Electric Bus, 18 hours/day
1 – 2 euros for 10-20 kWh electricity to go 10 kmwww.opbrid.com
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
OLEVOn-Line Electric Vehicle, South Korea
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Bus Rapid Transit in Bogota
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Bus Rapid Transit in Curitiba, Brazil
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Bus Rapid Transit in Delhi
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Bus Rapid Transit in Istanbul
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Bus Rapid Transit in Rio de Janiero
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.comBus Rapid Transit in Guangzhou, China
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Proposed Bus Rapid Transit in Chicago
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Light Rail Transitwww.islandtransformations.org
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Electric + Green Electricity = No Climate Impact
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Mulhouse, Germany
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Electric + Green Electricity = No Climate Impact
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
The Journey Beyond Oil
Cars & light trucks5% shift to walking = 95% of oil demand15% shift to cycling = 80% …15% shift to transit/LRT = 65% …
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
4 5% shift to Telework
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com Cisco Systems
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
The Journey Beyond Oil
Cars & light trucks5% shift to walking = 95% of oil demand15% shift to cycling = 80% …15% shift to transit/LRT = 65% …5% shift to telework = 60% …
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
5 v5% shift to Ride-Sharing
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Real-time Ride-sharingwww.car.ma
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Guaranteed emergency ride homeCash-out parking – paid for not using employee
parking spaceRideshare Plus Rewards Book
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
The Journey Beyond Oil
Cars & light trucks5% shift to walking = 95% of oil demand15% shift to cycling = 80% …15% shift to transit/LRT = 65% …5% shift to telework = 60% …5% shift to ride-sharing = 55% …
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
See
650 members share 23 vehicles
www.victoriacarshare.ca
6 5% shift to Car Sharing
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Car-sharing forecast North America 2016:
4.4 million usersDavid Zhao, automotive research analyst with Frost & Sullivan,
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Peer-to-Peer Car-Sharing
Vehicles owners earnup to $300 a month
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
The Journey Beyond Oil
Cars & light trucks5% shift to walking = 95% of oil demand15% shift to cycling = 80% …15% shift to transit/LRT = 65% …5% shift to telework = 60% …5% shift to ride-sharing = 55% …5% shift to car-sharing = 50% …
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
7 Better Inter-ModalConnections
Single Smart Card for transit, LRT, car-share,
ride-share, ferries, rail
Good transit-ferry connections
Good bike-parking at every transit station
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Transport London’s Oyster Card
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Walk Bike
Food Help
Taxi
Skype
ParkRide share
Ski-lift
Maps
Ferry Fly
Car share
LRTTransit
Rail
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
8 New Urban Design
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Metro do Porto, Portugal
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
9 50% shift to Hybrid EVs
80% of average mileage on electric drive
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Chevy Volt2,500 km on one tank of gas
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Volkswagen XL1Diesel plug-in hybrid
75 km battery range0.9 litres/100 km (312 mpg)
(260 mpg in USA)
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
The Journey Beyond Oil
Cars & light trucks5% shift to walking = 95% of oil demand15% shift to cycling = 80% …15% shift to transit/LRT = 65% …5% shift to telework = 60% …5% shift to ride-sharing = 55% …5% shift to car-sharing = 50% …50% of vehicles hybrid electric = 30% 80% of mileage electric
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
10 v50% shift to Full Electric Vehicles
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Renault Twizy EV 2 seats, 100 km range 80 kph, 3.5 hours recharge $9,700 + $60/month battery lease
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
In UK: $10,600 + $65 monthly battery lease charge
Top
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Top
Hiroko EV
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Top
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Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Nissan Leaf Electric - 120 km range
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Smart Electric – 135 km range
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Mitsubishi MiEV – 150 km range
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Toyota RAV4 EV - 148 km range
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Tesla Model-X: 300-400 km range
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
STELLA 400-600 km range
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Made by Dutch students at Eindhoven University
4-seater, roadworthy, legal in HollandWeighs 380 kg (1120 kg for normal EV)
400 km range with no sunshine600 km in full sunshine
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Honda solar electric car charging
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Electric car fast charging
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
1.5 kW solar = 1,650 kWh a yearElectric car: 15 kWh = 100 km
10,000 km = 1,500 kWh
PV for EV
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
1.5 kW solar PV $6,000
5% 25 year mortgage on $6,000 = $35 a monthGas 10 litres @ $1.30 litre = $130 a month
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
100 km = 15 kWh10,000 km = 1,500 kWh
1,500 kwh @ 10 cents = $13 a monthGas 10 litres @ $1.30 litre = $130 a month
Grid Power for EV
EV Bargain!!10 times cheaper
to run!
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Institute of Automobile Economics:
EV maintenance costs are 35% lower
than a gas compact car over 8 years.
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Solar RoadwaysIn US, 3 x total electricity demand
www.solarroadways.com
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
The Journey Beyond Oil
Cars & light trucks5% shift to walking = 95% of oil demand15% shift to cycling = 80% …15% shift to transit/LRT = 65% …5% shift to telework = 60% …5% shift to ride-sharing = 55% …5% shift to car-sharing = 50% …50% vehicles hybrid EV 80% = 30% …50% of vehicles are electric = 5% …Lightweight design saves 50% = 2.5% …If all vehicles EVs = 0.0% …
= Beyond Oil
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Integrated Governance
CyclingTransit
HighwaysRail
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Integrated Cost Analysis
$CyclingTransit
HighwaysRail
$
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Cost of a new traffic lane$300,000 to $500,000 per km 800 vehicles per hour
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Cost of a new traffic lane$300,000 to $500,000 per km 800 vehicles per hour
Cost of a 1.5 metre bike lane$5,000 to $10,000 per km for re-striping
2,000 trips per hour = 75 to 250 times more cost-effective
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Cost of a new traffic lane$300,000 to $500,000 per km 800 vehicles per hour
Cost of a 1.5 metre bike lane$5,000 to $10,000 per km for re-striping
2,000 trips per hour = 75 to 250 times more cost-effective
$35,000 to $150,000 per km when road widening required = 5 to 35 times more cost-effective
Ministry of Transportation of Ontario, Ontario Bikeways Planning and Design Guidelines, pg. 8-34, March 1996.
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Cost of a new traffic lane$300,000 to $500,000 per km 800 vehicles per hour
Cost of a 1.5 metre bike lane$5,000 to $10,000 per km for re-striping2,000 trips per hour
= 75 to 250 times more cost-effective
$35,000 to $150,000 per km when road widening required = 5 to 35 times more cost-effective
Ministry of Transportation of Ontario, Ontario Bikeways Planning and Design Guidelines, pg. 8-34, March 1996.
Cost of a new separated bike lane $100,000 per km
= 7 to 12 times more cost-effective
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Cost of the Airport McTavish Interchange$24 million
= 2,400 km of painted bike lanesor 240 km of separated bike lanes
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Carbon Taxes Feebates Road tolls
How can we pay for it?
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Electronic Road Pricing
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Road-pricing on the Malahat
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
30,000 vehicles a day$2 one-way toll = $60,000 a day
= 250 luxury coaches= up to 10,000 passengers a day
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Electric Freight
Renault Radiance Dutch concept electric truck
Average 18-wheeler 6.5 mpg Super-efficient designs 9 mpg
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Cargohopper3 tonnes max60 km range20 kph top speedUrban deliveriesHolland
www.cargohopper.com
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Freight Solutions - Trucking
Super-efficient designs save 35% Electric plug-in to eliminate idling saves 8% Slower driving saves 8% ‘Empty miles’ shipping saves 5-15% Combined innovations could save 60%
But 60% increased demand would wipe out all the gains.
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Shipping Solutions
2.5% of global oil use
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Slowing from 25 to 20 knots – saves 50% Slowing from 23.5 to 20 knots - saves 25% Skysails on slow boats (10 knots) - saves 20% Ecospeed coating and underwater cleaning – saves 20% Underwater propellor polishing – saves 2% Black carbon elimination through cleaner fuel
But 50% increased demand would wipe out all the gains.
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Flying Solutions
8% of global oil use
Latest designs save 20%
But a 20% increased demand would wipe out all the gains.
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Future Boing Liquid Hydrogen Plane
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Proposed EADS VoltAir lithium-air battery aircraftSuperconducting electric motors
Paris Airshow, 2011Up to Mach 4, Paris – Tokyo in 2.5 hours
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Renewable Electricity
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
So what’s
The Secretto make it all happen?
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Community engagement
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Special Price
$5
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Together, we can change the world.If you’re feeling inspired, will you
join the BCSEA?
You can become a member!www.bcsea.org/join
BCSEA 2013 www.bcsea.org
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
This whole presentation is available on
www.slideshare.net/GuyDauncey
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
How can we make it happen?
Questions
Discussion
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
D'où venons-nous? Que sommes-nous? Où allons-nous?
Where Do We Come From? What Are We?
Where Are We Going??
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Voyager 1 photo of Earth from 6 billion kilometers.
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
The Universe has taken
13 billion years
to create us
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Number of stars in the Universe
1024: 1 trillion trillion
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Number of atoms in your body:
1027: 1000 trillion trillion
All self-organized into one amazing whole
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Number of stars in our galaxy
100 trillion
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Number of synapses in your brain
100 trillion
All self-organized into one amazing whole
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
100 trillion synapses 100 trillion stars
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
We are amazing… and we are all conscious
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
We have free will We can make a difference
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com It’s Our World – Let’s Change ItGuy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
This is about us, our planet,and our future.
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey
www.earthfuture.com