WELCOME

SIMIQ4 Motor Industry Review

In association with DoneDeal

2nd February 2015

IntroductionAlan Nolan

Director General

SIMI

Q4 ReviewIndustry

Perspective

James Brooks

SIMI President

MD of KIA Ireland

SIMI DoneDeal 2014 Motor Industry Perspective

• New car sales up 30%

• Light Commercial vehicles up 51%

• Employment up 10% (41,600)

• €1Billion in taxes from car sales

• Over 5 Billion taxes collected by Industry

• Cost of motoring down on 2013

• Consumer confidence up

Motor Industry Outlook 2015

• New Car Sales up 31% in January

• LCVs up 70%, HGVs down 37%

• Busses up 32%, Motorcycles up 8%

• Industry projection for year 115,000

• Ageing Car Parc: – 40% 5-10yrs

– 33% over 10yrs

• 689,258 cars failed NCT in 2014– 36% of cars on the roads failed!

• Need to maintain vehicles

Motor Industry Outlook 2015

Q4 ReviewExplained

Jim Power

Review Author & Economist

SIMI Motor Industry Review

Q4 2014

JimPower

Feb 2nd 2015

The Global Background• US economy doing well

• UK economy doing well

• Euro Zone struggling ~ recession or ‘euro-sclerosis’?

• Euro Zone bank stress test a hurdle cleared in 2014

• Quantitative easing in EZ strong, but impact likely to be

limited – move away from fiscal austerity?

• Greek uncertainties

• Limited pressure on US & UK interest rates later in 2015 –

no pressure whatsoever on ECB

• Key issues – Sovereign Debt, Unemployment &

Deflationary Forces in Euro Zone

Key Developments in Irish Economy in 2014

• Strong growth in first 3/4of year GDP +4.9%

• Retail Sales Volume +6.3%: Value +4.1%

• Ex-Cars Value +1.6%: Volume +3.7% #Car Sales +29.5%

• Merchandise exports +1.2% (Jan-Nov)

• Employment +27,700 +1.5% (Year to end-Sept)

• Public finances improving – still borrowing too much

• Credit conditions still tight – demand & supply issues

• Construction activity rebounding strongly

• Strong tourism performance +8.6% Overseas Visitors

Economic Activity (Q1-Q3)

% YoY

GDP +4.9%

GNP +4.7%

Consumption +0.6%

Gov. Expenditure +2.4%

Investment +10.6%

Exports Goods & Services +12.0%

Imports Goods & Services +11.2%

Unemployment Rate

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Jan-8

3

Oct-

83

Jul-8

4

Apr-

85

Jan-8

6

Oct-

86

Jul-8

7

Apr-

88

Jan-8

9

Oct-

89

Jul-9

0

Apr-

91

Jan-9

2

Oct-

92

Jul-9

3

Apr-

94

Jan-9

5

Oct-

95

Jul-9

6

Apr-

97

Jan-9

8

Oct-

98

Jul-9

9

Apr-

00

Jan-0

1

Oct-

01

Jul-0

2

Apr-

03

Jan-0

4

Oct-

04

Jul-0

5

Apr-

06

Jan-0

7

Oct-

07

Jul-0

8

Apr-

09

Jan-1

0

Oct-

10

Jul-1

1

Apr-

12

Jan-1

3

Oct-

13

Jul-1

4

%

Employment (S/A)

1600

1700

1800

1900

2000

2100

2200

20

04Q

1

20

04Q

2

20

04Q

3

20

04Q

4

20

05Q

1

20

05Q

2

20

05Q

3

20

05Q

4

20

06Q

1

20

06Q

2

20

06Q

3

20

06Q

4

20

07Q

1

20

07Q

2

20

07Q

3

20

07Q

4

20

08Q

1

20

08Q

2

20

08Q

3

20

08Q

4

20

09Q

1

20

09Q

2

20

09Q

3

20

09Q

4

20

10Q

1

20

10Q

2

20

10Q

3

20

10Q

4

20

11Q

1

20

11Q

2

20

11Q

3

20

11Q

4

20

12Q

1

20

12Q

2

20

12Q

3

20

12Q

4

20

13Q

1

20

13Q

2

20

13Q

3

20

13Q

4

20

14Q

1

20

14Q

2

20

14Q

3

Consumer Confidence

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Ma

r-9

7

Aug-9

7

Jan-9

8

Jun-9

8

No

v-9

8

Apr-

99

Sep-9

9

Feb

-00

Jul-0

0

De

c-0

0

Ma

y-0

1

Oct-

01

Ma

r-0

2

Aug-0

2

Jan-0

3

Jun-0

3

No

v-0

3

Apr-

04

Sep-0

4

Feb

-05

Jul-0

5

De

c-0

5

Ma

y-0

6

Oct-

06

Ma

r-0

7

Aug-0

7

Jan-0

8

Jun-0

8

No

v-0

8

Apr-

09

Sep-0

9

Feb

-10

Jul-1

0

De

c-1

0

Ma

y-1

1

Oct-

11

Ma

r-1

2

Aug-1

2

Jan-1

3

Jun-1

3

No

v-1

3

Apr-

14

Sep-1

4

Economic Forecasts

2013 2014f 2015f 2016f

GDP 0.2% 4.8% 3.6% 3.3%

GNP 3.2% 4.0% 3.3% 3.0%

Consumption -0.8% 1.7% 2.5% 1.5%

Investment -2.4% 14.7% 12.5% 7.5%

Exports 1.1% 8.5% 6.0% 4.5%

Unemployment 13.1% 11.3% 10.0% 9.3%

Key Economic Risks/Challenges

• Euro Zone fragility

• Government debt levels high – no room for fiscal heroics

• Personal & SME debt overhang

• Housing market imbalances in Dublin

• Restoring a functioning banking sector – progress being

made

• Personal sector still pressurised – property tax revaluation

in 2016?

• Pressure for wage increases

• Political developments ~ stability/poor economic policies?

The Motor Industry in 2014

• New private cars registered +29.5%

• Light Commercial Vehicles +51.3%

• Heavy Goods Vehicles +14.9%

• Every county reported good growth in new car

registrations

• Costs of motoring : Year to December: Petrol -7.5%,

Diesel -9.6%, Insurance +11.6%, New Car price -2.4%

• Petrol -16.5% from peak: Diesel -16.8% from peak

• Making stronger contribution to Exchequer €965 m

+26.6%

Monthly Registrations

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

2012 2013 2014

Cars Licensed

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

NEW CARS (%) IMPORTED CARS (%)

EXCHEQUER REVENUES FROM MOTOR INDUSTRY 2014

NEW CAR

REGISTRATIONS

(€mln) % GROWTH

VRT 427 +28.9%

VAT 372 +32.8%

Total 799 +30.7%

USED CAR

REGISTRATIONS

(€ mln) % GROWTH

VRT 146 +10.3%

VAT 20 +7.3%

Total 166 +9.9%

GRAND TOTAL 965 +26.6%

Employment

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

(000s)

Oil Prices

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1/2/2009 1/2/2010 1/2/2011 1/2/2012 1/2/2013 1/2/2014 1/2/2015

Cost of Motoring

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Jan-0

5

Ma

y-0

5

Sep-0

5

Jan-0

6

Ma

y-0

6

Sep-0

6

Jan-0

7

Ma

y-0

7

Sep-0

7

Jan-0

8

Ma

y-0

8

Sep-0

8

Jan-0

9

Ma

y-0

9

Sep-0

9

Jan-1

0

Ma

y-1

0

Sep-1

0

Jan-1

1

Ma

y-1

1

Sep-1

1

Jan-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Sep-1

2

Jan-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Sep-1

3

Jan-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Sep-1

4

(Jan

2005=

100)

Motor cars

Petrol

Diesel

Motor car insurance

Key Drivers of New Car Market

• Personal Consumption

• Interest Rates

• Unemployment

• Population >15 Years

• Car Sales in Previous Years

• One-off events e.g.: Car Scrappage

Scheme, Y2000 etc

Economic Impact & Potential of Industry

• Contributed €965 mln to Exchequer 2014 (€1.8 billion in

2007)

• Every 10,000 extra new cars +€82 million to Exchequer

• Q3 2014: 41,600 employed in industry

• 130 new jobs for every 1,000 extra cars sold

• Making increasingly stronger contribution to national and

local economies

• 120,000 in 2015? If achieved:

• Industry could add 3,000 new jobs

• 2015 Industry could contribute extra €188 m in VAT & VRT

New Car Registrations

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015f 2016f

Auto Market in 2015 & 2016

• Jan ‘15 29,948 +31%

• 118,000/120,000 possible in 2015

• Consumer confidence strong

• Credit availability good

• Interest rates to remain very low

• Labour market improving

• Stronger consumer spending

• Limited fiscal easing in Budget 2015

• 130,000 in 2016?

• Fragility of consumer spending & working capital key

challenges

Q4 ReviewSponsor

Cathal Cremen

Commercial Manager

Done Deal

Commercial Manager - Motor

Cathal Cremen

Motor Industry Review - 2014

2014 - DoneDeal.ie/Motors (Traffic)

DoneDeal.ie - New Accounts,

486,000 (1.3Million total)

DoneDeal.ie

2014 - DoneDeal.ie/Motors (Ad’s)

DoneDeal.ie

Sales Value €2,325

million

2014 - DoneDeal.ie/Motors (Car Sales)

321,776

2014 - DoneDeal.ie/Motors (Mobile)

IOS downloads - 201,000

Android downloads - 240,000

Total App downloads - 1.3 million

Over 32% of all ads were placed via mobile.

2014 - DoneDeal.ie/Motors (Most Popular Search)

2014 - DoneDeal.ie/Motors

Thank You!