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Global Electric Cars Market - Oct'13

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Page 1: Global Electric Cars Market - Oct'13

Copyright © 2013 RNCOS. All rights reserved.Unless otherwise indicated, all materials on these pagesare copyrighted by RNCOS. All rights reserved. No part ofthese pages, either text or image may be used for anypurpose other than personal use. Therefore,reproduction, modification, storage in a retrieval systemor retransmission, in any form or by any means,electronic, mechanical or otherwise, for reasons otherthan personal use, is strictly prohibited without priorwritten permission.

Page 2: Global Electric Cars Market - Oct'13

The electrification of the global vehicle fleet isundoubtedly a long-term ambition. EV marketshares are still below 1% in most major markets, duein part to high upfront costs, real and perceivedrange limitations, and a lack of consumer education.At the same time, there has been considerableprogress in the global market, which suggests arelatively positive outlook.

For instance, in 2012, the total number of theElectric Vehicles sold globally accounted for nearly1.3 Million Units which rose from around 1.0 Million

Units sold in the year 2011. Thus showing an annualgrowth of about 30%.

Global Electric Cars - Overview

Global - Share of Electric Vehicles in Total VehicleMarket (%), 2011 & 2012

Source: RNCOS

According to The International Organization ofMotor Vehicle Manufacturers the Total GlobalVehicle sale stood at 81.73 Million Units in 2012compared to 77.93 Million Units sold in 2011 with agrowth rate of 4.87% annually. Thus, in 2011Electric Vehicles accounted for a share of 1.3% in thetotal vehicles market and around 1.6% in 2012.

The year 2012 was marked by some notablemilestones in terms of sales, global R&D efforts, andincreased model diversity. The Global EV Saleswitnessed a considerable hike between 2011 and2012. Also there has been an increase over the pasttwo years in both cumulative EV sales and thenumber of vehicle models being offered.

In 2012 there were 20 EV models on sale from around 16 EVmodels in 2010. However, only 2-3 EV models were widelyavailable to consumers in the market in 2010, whichincreased in 2012 to about 6-8 EV models widely availableto the general public in several countries. The numbersshow a strong correlation between sales and productvariety. This suggests that more EV models coming tomarket would result in more choices for the consumer, andcould further increase sales.

Page 3: Global Electric Cars Market - Oct'13

Currently Available Electric Vehicles inMarket, 2013

Source: Digital Trends

Source: U.S Department of Energy

Manufacturer Model Type Price (US$)

Toyota Prius Plug-in hybrid 29,500

General Motors Chevrolet Volt Plug-in hybrid 31,645

Fisker Karma Plug-in hybrid 100,000

Nissan Leaf All Electric/Battery 27,700

Mitsubishi MIEV All Electric 21,625

TeslaModel S 40 KWhModel S 60 KWhModel S 85 KWh

All Electric49,90059,90069,900

Ford Focus All Electric 32,495

Honda Fit- EV All Electric 29,125

Toyota RAV4 EV All Electric 28,324

Coda Sedan All Electric 37,500

Currently available Major electric cars are Chevy Volt, Nissan Leaf, REVA, Mini E, Smart 4-2 EV,Mitsubishi iMiEV, Prius EV, Focus EV, Fisker Karma, Tesla, CODA and other smaller companies.

Currently Available Electric Vehicles inMarket, 2013

Manufacturer Model Class

Fiat 500e Minicompact Car

Honda Fit EV Small Station Wagon

Toyota Scion iQ EV Minicompact Car

Dailmer Smart fortwo convertible Two Seater

Dailmer Smart fortwo Coupe Two Seater

Currently Available Electric Vehicles inMarket, 2013

Manufacturer Model Class Expected Release Date

General Motors Spark EV Subcompact Car Summer 2013

Volkswagen E-Up! CarLimited U.S. production by2013; mass production by2020

BMW i3 Car First Half 2014

Mercedes-Benz B-Class EV Car Early 2014

Kia Soul EV Small Station Wagon 2,014

Volkswagen eGolf Compact Car Late 2014

Source: U.S Department of Energy

Page 4: Global Electric Cars Market - Oct'13

Global - Electric Vehicles Sales (Million Units), 2012 &2017

Source: Navigant Research

Source: AutoObserverNote: Other include Kia, BMW, Porsche, VW, Mercedes, Mitsubishi

Market Size and GrowthThe Global Electric Vehicle sales stood at 1.3 million units in 2012 and the market is expected to reach anumber of 2.8 million units sold by 2017. Thus, the industry is anticipated to grow at a CAGR of 17.1%during the years 2012 and 2017.

Annual worldwide sales of electric vehicles (EVs)is expected to reach 3.8 million by 2020. Thegrowth in sales of these vehicles is being drivennot only by the appeal of vehicles themselves, butalso by consumers demand for vehicles that costless to operate than traditional internalcombustion engine (ICE) vehicles, by governmentinfluence on market, and by rebounding economicenvironment.

According to AutoObserver, in 2011 Toyota leadthe market of hybrid EV with around 68% share.Further, Toyota would lead the market in 2015also with around 38.4% share of the market,followed by Ford with 12.3 % and Nissan withabout 10.5%.

Global - Hybrid Electric Vehicle Sales By Players(units), Nov 2011

Global - Forecast for Electric Vehicle Sales By Players(%), 2015

Source: Citi Investment

Page 5: Global Electric Cars Market - Oct'13

In 2012, the Hybrid Electric Vehicles accounted for 80.8% of the total electric vehicle sales, followed by theplug- in hybrid electric vehicles by 11.5% and Battery Electric Vehicle stood at the third position with 7.7%share in the total market.

Market By Category

Global - Electric Vehicles Sales By Segment (%),2012

Source: RNCOS

It is projected that hybrid electric vehicle sales would decline in 2017, whereas the sales of plug in electricvehicles would experience a hike in the sales. According to the statistics, PEV market would also grow inmany regions as a result of rising fuel prices, falling PEV prices, and increasing availability of PEV models.

Global - Forecast for Electric Vehicles Sales BySegment (%), 2017

Source: Navigant Research

Page 6: Global Electric Cars Market - Oct'13

Source: Various Industry Sources

Global - Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles Sales ByCountry (%), 2012

Source: Clean Energy Ministerial, Electric Vehicle Initiative(EVI), International Energy Agency (IEA)

United States lead the Electric cars market with 7,931 vehicles sold in Q2 2012, a 28% jump from the firstquarter sales of 6210, followed by Japan with 4,240 units, France with 2056, and Germany had 1284 unitssold in the second quater.

Market By Region

Global - Electric Vehicles Sales By Segment (%),2012

At the end of 2012, the highest sales shares of EVs werein the United States, Japan, and Europe. The mainPHEV and BEV markets can be found in the 15 EVI(Electric Vehicle Initiative) countries with worldwidesales shares being about 96% and 89%, respectively.

The largest share of the worldwide PHEV market is inthe United States, due to the predominance of theChevrolet Volt. Japan claims the second spot, largelydue to increasing sales of the Toyota plug-in Prius.

EV sales in Q1-Q3 2012 only reached 1% of total vehiclesales in Norway and Japan, but as EVs begin to penetratethe automotive market, the shares are likely to increase.

In fact, in the last quarter of 2012 EV sales reached over 1% of total vehicle sales in both the Netherlandsand the United States, furthering gains in market share.

Page 7: Global Electric Cars Market - Oct'13

Number of Plug-in Electric VehicleRegistrations, 2011 & 2012

CountryTotal Plug-in Electric Vehicle

RegistrationsTotal Vehicle Registrations

Plug-in Electric Vehicles PerThousand Vehicles

Norway 6,287 276,312 22.75

Estonia 562 32,617 17.23

Portugal 2,250 248,713 9.05

Austria 4,924 692,155 7.11

Netherlands 6,030 1,058,390 5.7

Poland 1,640 551,016 2.98

Denmark 987 340,799 2.9

Switzerland 1,472 647,097 2.27

France 8,989 4,102,989 2.19

Sweden 1,128 584,883 1.93

Czech Republic 507 347,291 1.46

Slovakia 156 142,099 1.1

Belgium 1,148 1,058,948 1.08

Germany 6,553 6,256,138 1.05

United Kingdom 3,342 3,985,862 0.84

Spain 863 1,507,640 0.57

Latvia 13 25,636 0.51

Bulgaria 14 38,541 0.36

Hungary 34 98,162 0.35

Greece 2 156,164 0.01

Source: ACEA (2012)

And in the worldwide BEV market, Japan holds the largest share due to sales of the Nissan LEAF, followedby the United States, then China, due in part to the use of electric taxis in Shenzhen and Hangzhou. Franceis in the fourth spot, in part dueto Bolloré's Bluecar, a part of the Paris EV car sharing scheme Autolib.

Page 8: Global Electric Cars Market - Oct'13

Global - Battery Electric Vehicles Sales By Country(%), 2012

Source: Clean Energy Ministerial, Electric VehicleInitiative (EVI), International Energy Agency (IEA)

Although total registrations of these vehicles in theUK had risen to 104,900 by the end of 2011, Britainhas not enjoyed the same initial take. As a result theUK is sixth out of 20 in terms of total registrations ofplug-in electric vehicles, and 15th in terms ofregistrations of these vehicles expressed as apercentage of all cars registered in 2011 and 2012. TheUK is already lagging behind other countries.

Further, In 2012 United States lead the market inHybrid Electric Cars Sales too with about 48.8% share,followed by Japan with 33.3% then Europe with 10%share in the market.

Global - Battery Electric Vehicles Sales By Country(%), 2012

Source: U.S. Department of EnergyNote: Data till June 2012

Page 9: Global Electric Cars Market - Oct'13

Hybrid and plug in electric vehicles are becoming anincreasingly important part of the automotivemarket. HEVs are largely accepted as a part of theautomotive market in many regions with around80.8% share in the EV market, while plug-in vehiclesremain a new technology with various challengesinherent in new markets with only around 11.5% ofthe total market share and far apart is the BEVmarket with just 7.7% share. However, Plug-inmarket is expected to grow in many regions to about17.4% as a result of rising fuel prices, falling PEVprices, and increasing availability of PEV models.

Moreover, the electric vehicles would catch on if carcharging stations could keep up the chargingrequirements. Among the total electric cars travelthe world's roads these days almost half of them inthe U.S. The U.S. is expected to have the highestadoption of hybrid and plug-in electric vehicles, withas many as 4.9% of vehicles sold including hybrid orplug-in vehicle technology.

Despite the promise of "green" transportation - anddespite billions of dollars in investment, by manymajor manufacturers EVs continue to be plagued bymany of the problems which include high cost, shortdriving range, the public's lack of appetite forbattery-powered cars and lack of charging stations.

The gradual tightening of global fuel-efficiencystandards from 2020 on is forcing automakers toassess their options, including the application ofadvanced technology which would propel thisindustry to large extent.

Further, with Automaker's advanced green-carengineering programs, electric cars are expected tohave a major impact in the auto industry givenadvantages in city pollution, less dependence on oil,and expected rise in gasoline prices. Worldgovernments are pledging billions to funddevelopment of electric vehicles and theircomponents. So in the near future, there would bemore electric cars on the market, and they'll be moreaffordable and practical.

Also, a life-cycle analysis shows that almost half of anelectric car's entire CO2 emissions result from itsproduction, more than double the emissions resultingfrom the production of a gasoline-powered car. Thus,reduced Carbon Emission Based ProductionTechnology would help in making it moreenvironment friendly and convinient.

Future Outlook

Page 10: Global Electric Cars Market - Oct'13

Opportunities

Automakers have taken it upon themselves to grow the public charging network to avoid the problem ofnascent presence of public EV charging network and thus paving the way for higher electric vehicle adoption.For instance, Nissan, which makes the electric Leaf, is aiming to triple the number of 30-minute quick-chargers in the U.S. to 600 by the middle of next year. That plan includes more than 100 quick-chargers atNissan dealerships in about 50 key markets.

The all-electric vehicle, the battery size moves up to around 23 kilowatt hours and it weighs around 600 to700 pounds which proves to be very inconvenient for the user.

For instance, recent advances in nano-technology are proving a popular avenue for lithium-ion batteriers ofEV. Egg-line nanoparticles of sulfur are one option, improving energy transfer and hugely increasing capacity.

Vehicle leasing is one potential pathway, and there is some evidence that competitive lease rates have alreadyhelped to bolster EV sales.

For instance, Renault offers battery leasing for its Zoe and Twizy models, as does Daimler for its SmartFortwo. These models charge a monthly fee of about USD 100 to lease the battery and often come withreplacement guarantees.

Challenges

Primary reason is the price of car batteries. Price per usable kilowatt hour of lithium-ion battery rangesbetween US $ 500-650 and thus makes up a large portion of a vehicle's cost, depending on the size of thebattery pack.

Electric cars often have less maximum range on one charge than cars powered by fossil fuels, and they cantake considerable time to recharge. Most EVs can only go about 100-200 miles before recharging-gasolinevehicles can go over 300 miles before refueling.

Fully recharging the battery pack can take 4 to 8 hours. Even a "quick charge" to 80% capacity can take 30min. A possible solution to the recharging situation may be battery-replacement stations, where instead ofrecharging your EV you can simply swap your drained battery for a fully charged one.

Page 11: Global Electric Cars Market - Oct'13

Recent News

Page 12: Global Electric Cars Market - Oct'13

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Page 13: Global Electric Cars Market - Oct'13

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