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General Motors (NYSE:GM)Recommendation: BUYTarget Price: $50.00University Securities Investment TeamAnurag Bansal | Connor Ruddick | Charlene ShuPriyanka Suri | Michael Tian
2T H E S I S V A L U A T I ONC O M P A N Y R I S K SI N D U S T R Y
Investment Thesis
Introduction of Autonomous Vehicles and a Partnership With Lyft
The Initiative to Cut Unnecessary Costs
Favorable Environment for Sales in 2016
3T H E S I S V A L U A T I ONC O M PA N Y R I S K SI N D U S T R Y
Business SegmentsAu
tom
otiv
e Se
gmen
tsGMNA
GME
GMIO
GMSA
37 countries under 13 brands, GM is one of the largest automakers worldwide
4T H E S I S V A L U A T I ONC O M PA N Y R I S K SI N D U S T R Y
Automotive Distribution Diversified vehicle sales
Wholesale
Sales to dealers for consumer retailLargest component of revenue
Retail
Sales directly to an end customerIncluding fleet customers: daily rental car companies, commercial fleets, leasing companies, government
5T H E S I S V A L U A T I ONC O M PA N Y R I S K SI N D U S T R Y
GM FinancialGlobal automotive financing
Earning assets of $53B with operations in 20 countries to over 16,000 dealers• Sub-prime lending• Full credit spectrum
leasing• Prime lending
T H E S I S V A L U A T I ONC O M PA N Y R I S K SI N D U S T R Y
New Initiatives
6
GM’s Plans for 2016
GM’s Super Cruise driving technology:2017 Cadillac CT6
Mixed-Metal Manufacturing:2016 Chevrolet MalibuReduction of market complexity:Withdrawal of Chevrolet brand from Europe
Increased exposure:Uses OnStar navigation and autonomous technology
Car-sharing project: Integrates with autonomous vehicles 2017 Chevrolet Volts
Lyft Partnership
A Shift Toward Efficiency
Autonomous Vehicle
Deployment
Adaptations to evolving industry:Utilization of Maven to generate revenue for Lyft
7T H E S I S V A L U A T I ONC O M P A N Y R I S K SI N D U S T R
Y
Competitors
GM #1 Sales in North America, South America, and China
Consistently leads US Market
8T H E S I S V A L U A T I ONC O M P A N Y R I S K SI N D U S T R
Y
Industry Overview
HIGHBarriers to Entry
Industry Dynamic
Porter’s Assessment
Rationale
Bargaining Power of Buyers
MEDIUM
Intensity of Rivalry HIGH
• Low switching costs for consumers
• Anticipation of continuous innovation
• Strong brand loyalty among consumersThreat of
Substitutes MEDIUMBargaining
Power of Suppliers
LOW• Exclusive manufacturing
contracts• High amount of raw material
suppliers
• Substitutes exist in alternative transportation
• Offset by high brand loyalty
• High initial costs of production• Strict government regulation• Difficult to obtain economies of
scale
• Replacements such as autonomous and crowd-sourced transportation
• Traditional automakers are adapting
9T H E S I S V A L U A T I ONC O M P A N Y R I S K SI N D U S T R
Y
Lower Energy Prices Drive Sales
Oil Prices at Record Lows
Upward Trend in Auto Sales
10T H E S I S V A L U A T I ONC O M P A N Y R I S K SI N D U S T R
Y
Consumer Confidence and Sales
Consumer Confidence at a 6-year high
SAAR (Seasonally-Adjusted Annual Rate) up 6% since last year
11T H E S I S V A L U A T I ONC O M P A N Y R I S K SI N D U S T R
Y
“Uberification” and Autonomous Vehicles
The ridesharing industry is rapidly growing and its impact on auto sales is still unknown
Auto Industries in general are partnering with ridesharing and AV companiesHowever, GM is a fast mover among traditional automakers, with a bold $500 million deal
Early movers like Delphi could surpass established traditional auto companies
However, most rideshare users are car owners and will continue to buy cars
Autonomous Vehicles
Lyft Partnership
Uber’s Paradigm Shift
Current landscape has no clear winners
12T H E S I S V A L U A T I ONC O M P A N Y R I S K SI N D U S T R
Y
Risks & Mitigations
Company-wide engineering Review
Ongoing R&D
Fixed cost cuts
Increased profitability
Efficient resource allocation
Efforts to adapt with industry
Lyft partnership
Car sharing programs
Sales Decline from Factory Shutdowns
Industry ShiftProduct Recalls
13T H E S I S V A L U A T IO NC O M P A N Y R I S K SI N D U S T R Y
Relative ValuationComparables analysis
Name Price Market Cap P/E EV / EBIT EV / EBITDA D / E P / BMinimum 9,809.0 8.3X 2.5X 1.3X 147.6X 0.6XMedian 37,001.2 10.2X 4.4X 2.3X 203.9X 1.2XMaximum 65,106.2 13.7X 6.3X 30.7X 458.4X 18.6XAverage 37,229.4 10.7X 4.4X 9.2X 253.4X 5.4X
GENERAL MOTORS CO GM US 29.65$ 46,140.6 6.3X 3.8X 2.1X 163.4X 1.4X
FORD MOTOR CO F US 12.26$ 48,655.4 8.3X 6.3X 2.8X 458.4X 1.8XVOLKSWAGEN AG VOW GR 135.54$ 65,106.2 10.2X 2.5X 1.3X 147.6X 0.6XTESLA MOTORS INC TSLA US 193.56$ 25,346.9 N.A. N.A. 30.7X 193.5X 18.6XFIAT CHRYSLER AUTOMOBILES NV FCAU US 7.61$ 9,809.0 13.7X N.A. 1.8X 214.2X 0.6X
General Mo-tors
Ford Volkswagen Fiat02468
10121416
Price to Earnings
General Mo-tors
Ford Volkswagen Fiat0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
EV/EBITDA
14T H E S I S V A L U A T IO NC O M P A N Y R I S K SI N D U S T R Y
Base DCFGeneral Motors Company (NYSE:GM)
Projected(in millions) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019ERevenue 150,276.0 152,256.0 155,427.0 155,929.0 161,628.9 166,257.6 171,362.6 175,466.6 179,585.3
Growth 1.3% 2.1% 0.3% 3.7% 2.9% 3.1% 2.4% 2.3%COGS 116,228.0 121,434.0 120,723.0 124,482.0 126,189.7 123,972.2 124,672.9 126,596.9 129,883.9
COGS Margin 77.3% 79.8% 77.7% 79.8% 78.1% 74.6% 72.8% 72.1% 72.3%Gross Profit 34,048.0 30,822.0 34,704.0 31,447.0 35,439.2 42,285.5 46,689.7 48,869.7 49,701.4
Gross Margin 22.7% 20.2% 22.3% 20.2% 21.9% 25.4% 27.2% 27.9% 27.7%
Operating Expenses (excl. D&A) 22,249.0 49,558.0 22,073.0 22,799.0 24,111.2 28,110.0 30,276.5 31,626.8 31,735.9 OpEx Margin 14.8% 32.5% 14.2% 14.6% 14.9% 16.9% 17.7% 18.0% 17.7%
EBITDA 11,799.0 (18,736.0) 12,631.0 8,648.0 11,328.0 14,175.4 16,413.2 17,242.9 17,965.4 Operating Margin 7.9% (12.3%) 8.1% 5.5% 7.0% 8.5% 9.6% 9.8% 10.0%
D&A 6,143.0 11,627.0 7,500.0 7,118.0 8,074.2 8,633.7 9,160.3 9,567.1 9,937.6 EBIT 5,656.0 (30,363.0) 5,131.0 1,530.0 3,253.8 5,541.7 7,252.9 7,675.8 8,027.8
EBIT Margin 3.8% -19.9% 3.3% 1.0% 2.0% 3.3% 4.2% 4.4% 4.5%
Taxes @ 22.3% 1,261.9 (6,774.0) 1,144.7 341.3 725.9 1,236.4 1,618.1 1,712.5 1,791.0 NOPAT 4,394.1 (23,589.0) 3,986.3 1,188.7 2,527.9 4,305.4 5,634.8 5,963.3 6,236.8
Net Margin 2.9% (15.5%) 2.6% 0.8% 1.6% 2.6% 3.3% 3.4% 3.5%
Plus: D&A 6,143.0 11,627.0 7,500.0 7,118.0 8,074.2 8,633.7 9,160.3 9,567.1 9,937.6 Less: CapEx 6,269.0 8,076.0 7,565.0 7,091.0 7,273.3 8,312.9 10,624.5 11,229.9 12,391.4 Less: Increase NWC - (10,213.0) (2,055.0) 1,219.4 (239.7) (69.4) (992.6) (571.4) Unleavered FCF 4,268.1 (20,038.0) 14,134.3 3,270.7 2,109.4 4,865.9 4,240.0 5,293.1 4,354.4
0 1 2 3 4PV of FCF 2,109.4 4,562.4 3,727.5 4,363.2 3,365.5
Historical
15T H E S I S V A L U A T IO NC O M P A N Y R I S K SI N D U S T R Y
Base DCF
WACC 6.7%Exit Multiple 2.10x
Terminal Value 37,727.4 PV of Terminal Value 29,159.5
% Enterprise Value 61.7%EV 47,287.5 Total Debt 57,403.0 Minority Interest 497.0 Preferred Stock - Cash 23,462.0 Adjustments 46,308.0 Equity Value 59,157.5 Shares Outstanding 1,618.0 Implied Share Price 36.56$ Current Share Price 29.65$ Implied Discount 23.3%
Exit Multiple23.31% 1.10x 1.60x 2.10x 2.60x 3.10x
3.7% 0.6% 16.8% 33.1% 49.3% 65.5%4.7% -1.6% 14.1% 29.7% 45.3% 60.9%5.7% -3.6% 11.4% 26.4% 41.4% 56.5%6.7% -5.6% 8.8% 23.3% 37.8% 52.3%7.7% -7.5% 6.4% 20.4% 34.3% 48.2%8.7% -9.4% 4.1% 17.5% 30.9% 44.4%9.7% -11.1% 1.8% 14.8% 27.7% 40.7%
WAC
C
16T H E S I S V A L U A T IO NC O M P A N Y R I S K SI N D U S T R Y
Bull/Base/Bear DCF Share Price
Bull DCF Base DCF Bear DCF$25
$30
$35
$40
$45
41.59
36.56
33.81
Implied Share Price Current
17T H E S I S V A L U A T I ONC O M P A N Y R I S K SI N D U S T R Y
Summary
Introduction of Autonomous Vehicles and a Partnership With Lyft
The Initiative to Cut Unnecessary Costs
Favorable Environment for Sales in 2016
Q&A
19T H E S I S V A L U A T I ONC O M P A N Y R I S K SI N D U S T R Y
Bull DCF
Terminal Value 42,187.1 PV of Terminal Value 32,606.4
% Enterprise Value 58.8%EV 55,420.0 Total Debt 57,403.0 Minority Interest 497.0 Preferred Stock - Cash 23,462.0 Adjustments 46,308.0 Equity Value 67,290.0 Shares Outstanding 1,618.0 Implied Share Price 41.59$ Current Share Price 29.65$ Implied Discount 40.3%
Exit Multiple40.26% 1.10x 1.60x 2.10x 2.60x 3.10x
3.7% 15.4% 33.5% 51.7% 69.8% 87.9%4.7% 12.8% 30.2% 47.7% 65.1% 82.6%5.7% 10.3% 27.1% 43.9% 60.7% 77.5%6.7% 7.9% 24.1% 40.3% 56.5% 72.6%7.7% 5.6% 21.2% 36.8% 52.4% 68.0%8.7% 3.4% 18.5% 33.5% 48.5% 63.5%9.7% 1.3% 15.8% 30.3% 44.8% 59.3%
WAC
C
20T H E S I S V A L U A T I ONC O M P A N Y R I S K SI N D U S T R Y
Bear DCF
Terminal Value 35,431.9 PV of Terminal Value 27,385.3
% Enterprise Value 63.9%EV 42,830.6 Total Debt 57,403.0 Minority Interest 497.0 Preferred Stock - Cash 23,462.0 Adjustments 46,308.0 Equity Value 54,700.6 Shares Outstanding 1,618.0 Implied Share Price 33.81$ Current Share Price 29.65$ Implied Discount 14.0%
Exit Multiple14.02% 1.10x 1.60x 2.10x 2.60x 3.10x
3.7% -7.6% 7.7% 22.9% 38.1% 53.4%4.7% -9.5% 5.2% 19.8% 34.5% 49.1%5.7% -11.4% 2.7% 16.9% 31.0% 45.1%6.7% -13.2% 0.4% 14.0% 27.6% 41.2%7.7% -14.9% -1.8% 11.3% 24.4% 37.5%8.7% -16.5% -3.9% 8.7% 21.4% 34.0%9.7% -18.1% -5.9% 6.3% 18.4% 30.6%
WAC
C
21
General Motors Company (NYSE:GM)Projected
(in millions) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019ERevenue
AutomotiveVolume 2,925,000 3,019,000 3,234,000 3,413,000 3,617,780 3,751,638 3,860,435 3,945,365 4,016,382
Growth % 3.2% 7.1% 5.5% 6.0% 3.7% 2.9% 2.2% 1.8%Avg. Price per Unit 30,848.9 29,781.4 29,403.5 29,651.0 29,888.2 30,088.5 30,238.9 30,269.2 30,299.5
Growth % -3.5% -1.3% 0.8% 0.8% 0.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1%GMNA 90,233.0 89,910.0 95,091.0 101,199.0 108,129.1 112,881.2 116,735.5 119,423.0 121,694.2
Growth % -0.4% 5.8% 6.4% 6.8% 4.4% 3.4% 2.3% 1.9%
Volume 1,751,000 1,607,000 1,557,000 1,256,000 1,283,632 1,257,959 1,257,959 1,264,249 1,276,892 Growth % -8.2% -3.1% -19.3% 2.2% -2.0% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0%
Avg. Price per Unit 15,281.0 14,346.6 14,105.3 17,703.0 17,880.1 18,058.9 18,239.4 18,421.8 18,606.1 Growth % -6.1% -1.7% 25.5% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
GME 26,757.0 23,055.0 21,962.0 22,235.0 22,951.4 22,717.3 22,944.5 23,289.8 23,757.9 Growth % -13.8% -4.7% 1.2% 3.2% -1.0% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0%
Volume 3,281,000 3,616,000 3,886,000 4,378,000 4,596,900 4,799,164 4,967,134 5,106,214 5,208,338 Growth % 10.2% 7.5% 12.7% 5.0% 4.4% 3.5% 2.8% 2.0%
Avg. Price per Unit 7,546.8 5,693.6 4,737.8 3,287.3 2,794.2 2,458.9 2,286.8 2,195.3 2,195.3 Growth % -24.6% -16.8% -30.6% -15.0% -12.0% -7.0% -4.0% 0.0%
GMIO 24,761.0 20,588.0 18,411.0 14,392.0 12,844.9 11,800.8 11,358.9 11,209.9 11,434.1 Growth % -16.9% -10.6% -21.8% -10.8% -8.1% -3.7% -1.3% 2.0%
Volume 1,067,000 1,046,000 1,037,000 878,000 798,980 783,000 783,000 790,830 798,739 Growth % -2.0% -0.9% -15.3% -9.0% -2.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0%
Avg. Price per Unit 15,817.2 15,965.6 15,890.1 14,937.4 14,190.5 14,048.6 13,950.2 13,950.2 14,089.7 Growth % 0.9% -0.5% -6.0% -5.0% -1.0% -0.7% 0.0% 1.0%
GMSA 16,877.0 16,700.0 16,478.0 13,115.0 11,337.9 11,000.0 10,923.0 11,032.3 11,254.0 Growth % -1.0% -1.3% -20.4% -13.6% -3.0% -0.7% 1.0% 2.0%
Total Automotive 158,628.0 150,253.0 151,942.0 150,941.0 155,263.3 158,399.3 161,961.9 164,954.9 168,140.2 Growth % -5.3% 1.1% -0.7% 2.9% 2.0% 2.2% 1.8% 1.9%
GM Financial 1,410.0 1,961.0 3,335.0 4,854.0 5,824.8 6,756.8 7,500.0 8,100.0 8,505.0 Current/Bull Growth % 39.1% 70.1% 45.5% 39.0% 36.0% 29.0% 20.0% 17.5%Base Growth % 28.0% 24.0% 20.0% 12.0% 9.0%Bear Growth % 20.0% 16.0% 11.0% 8.0% 5.0%
Corporate & Other 61.0 40.0 150.0 151.0 152.5 154.0 155.6 157.1 158.7 % Growth -34.4% 275.0% 0.7% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
Eliminations (9,823.0) 2.0 - (17.0) - - - - - % Total Automotive -6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Total Revenue 150,276.0 152,256.0 155,427.0 155,929.0 161,240.6 165,310.1 169,617.5 173,212.0 176,803.9 Growth % 1.3% 2.1% 0.3% 3.4% 2.5% 2.6% 2.1% 2.1%
Historical
22T H E S I S V A L U A T I ONC O M P A N Y R I S K SI N D U S T R Y
COGS Projections
General Motors Company (NYSE:GM)Projected
(in millions) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019ECOGSAutomotive COGS
GMNA NR 79,907.0 81,404.0 89,371.0 95,153.6 98,206.6 100,392.5 102,703.8 104,657.0 % GMNA Revenue - 88.9% 85.6% 88.3% 88.0% 87.0% 86.0% 86.0% 86.0%
GME NR 26,497.0 20,824.0 21,712.0 22,262.9 21,581.4 21,797.3 22,125.3 22,570.0 % GME Revenue - 114.9% 94.8% 97.6% 97.0% 95.0% 95.0% 95.0% 95.0%
GMIO NR 18,589.0 17,599.0 14,009.0 12,331.1 11,210.8 10,790.9 10,649.4 10,862.4 % GMIO Revenue - 90.3% 95.6% 97.3% 96.0% 95.0% 95.0% 95.0% 95.0%
GMSA NR 15,299.0 15,221.0 12,736.0 10,884.4 10,560.0 10,486.1 10,591.0 10,803.9 % GMSA Revenue - 91.6% 92.4% 97.1% 96.0% 96.0% 96.0% 96.0% 96.0%
Corporate & Eliminations NR (56.0) (123.0) 254.0 152.5 154.0 155.6 157.1 158.7 % Corporate & Other Revenue - -140.0% -82.0% 168.2% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Total Automotive COGS 130,386.0 140,236.0 134,925.0 138,082.0 140,784.5 141,712.9 143,622.4 146,226.5 149,051.9 % Total Automotive Revenue 82.2% 93.3% 88.8% 91.5% 90.7% 89.5% 88.7% 88.6% 88.6%
Less: R&D 8,100.0 7,400.0 7,200.0 7,400.0 7,763.2 10,771.2 11,823.2 12,371.6 11,769.8 % Total Automotive Revenue 5.1% 4.9% 4.7% 4.9% 5.0% 6.8% 7.3% 7.5% 7.0%
Less: Automotive D&A 6,058.0 11,402.0 7,002.0 6,200.0 6,831.6 6,969.6 7,126.3 7,258.0 7,398.2 % Total Automotive Revenue 3.8% 7.6% 4.6% 4.1% 4.4% 4.4% 4.4% 4.4% 4.4%
Net COGS (less R&D, D&A) 116,228.0 121,434.0 120,723.0 124,482.0 126,189.7 123,972.2 124,672.9 126,596.9 129,883.9 % Total Revenue 77.3% 79.8% 77.7% 79.8% 78.3% 75.0% 73.5% 73.1% 73.5%
Historical
23T H E S I S V A L U A T I ONC O M P A N Y R I S K SI N D U S T R Y
OpEx/D&A/CapEx ProjectionsGeneral Motors Company (NYSE:GM)
Projected(in millions) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019EOperating Expenses
Automotive SG&A 12,163.0 14,031.0 12,382.0 12,158.0 12,110.5 12,275.9 12,471.1 12,619.0 12,778.7 % Automotive Revenue 7.7% 9.3% 8.1% 8.1% 7.8% 7.8% 7.7% 7.7% 7.6%
GM Financial Operating & Other 785.0 1,207.0 2,448.0 4,039.0 4,834.6 5,608.1 6,225.0 6,723.0 7,059.2 % GM Financial Revenue 55.7% 61.6% 73.4% 83.2% 83.0% 83.0% 83.0% 83.0% 83.0%
Less: GM Financial D&A 85.0 225.0 498.0 918.0 1,165.0 1,459.5 1,650.0 1,806.3 1,913.6 % GM Financial Revenue 6.0% 11.5% 14.9% 18.9% 20.0% 21.6% 22.0% 22.3% 22.5%
Net GM Financial Operating & Other 700.0 982.0 1,950.0 3,121.0 3,669.6 4,148.7 4,575.0 4,916.7 5,145.5 % GM Financial Revenue 49.6% 50.1% 58.5% 64.3% 63.0% 61.4% 61.0% 60.7% 60.5%
Goodwill Impairment 1,286.0 27,145.0 541.0 120.0 322.5 330.6 339.2 346.4 353.6 % Total Revenue 0.9% 17.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
R&D Expense 8,100.0 7,400.0 7,200.0 7,400.0 7,763.2 10,771.2 11,823.2 12,371.6 11,769.8 % Automotive Revenue 5.1% 4.9% 4.7% 4.9% 5.0% 5.8% 6.3% 6.9% 7.0%
Total Operating Expenses 22,249.0 49,558.0 22,073.0 22,799.0 23,865.8 27,526.4 29,208.5 30,253.8 30,047.6 % Total Revenue 14.8% 32.5% 14.2% 14.6% 14.8% 16.7% 17.2% 17.5% 17.0%
D&A, CapExAutomotive D&A 6,058.0 11,402.0 7,002.0 6,200.0 6,831.6 6,969.6 7,126.3 7,258.0 7,398.2
% Automotive Revenue 3.8% 7.6% 4.6% 4.1% 4.4% 4.4% 4.4% 4.4% 4.4%
GM Financial D&A 85.0 225.0 498.0 918.0 1,165.0 1,459.5 1,650.0 1,806.3 1,913.6 % GM Financial Revenue 6.0% 11.5% 14.9% 18.9% 20.0% 21.6% 22.0% 22.3% 22.5%
CapEx 6,269.0 8,076.0 7,565.0 7,091.0 7,255.8 8,265.5 10,516.3 11,085.6 12,199.5 % Total Revenue 4.2% 5.3% 4.9% 4.5% 4.5% 5.0% 6.2% 6.4% 6.9%
Total D&A 6,143.0 11,627.0 7,500.0 7,118.0 7,996.5 8,429.0 8,776.3 9,064.3 9,311.8 % Total Revenue 4.1% 7.6% 4.8% 4.6% 5.0% 5.1% 5.2% 5.2% 5.3%
Total CapEx 6,269.0 8,076.0 7,565.0 7,091.0 7,255.8 8,265.5 10,516.3 11,085.6 12,199.5 % Total Revenue 4.2% 5.3% 4.9% 4.5% 4.5% 5.0% 6.2% 6.4% 6.9%
Historical
24T H E S I S V A L U A T I ONC O M P A N Y R I S K SI N D U S T R Y
NWC ProjectionsGeneral Motors Company (NYSE:GM)
Projected(in millions) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019ERevenue 150,276.0 152,256.0 155,427.0 155,929.0 161,240.6 165,310.1 169,617.5 173,212.0 176,803.9 Cost of Sales 116,228.0 121,434.0 120,723.0 124,482.0 126,189.7 123,972.2 124,672.9 126,596.9 129,883.9 Operating Expenses 22,249.0 49,558.0 22,073.0 22,799.0 23,865.8 27,526.4 29,208.5 30,253.8 30,047.6
Current AssetsAccounts Receivable 9,964.0 10,395.0 8,535.0 9,078.0 9,276.9 9,511.0 9,758.8 9,965.6 10,172.3 Inventories 14,324.0 14,714.0 14,039.0 13,642.0 13,829.0 13,586.0 13,662.8 13,873.6 14,233.9 Other Current Assets - 3,318.0 4,060.0 5,148.0 5,804.7 6,281.8 6,784.7 6,928.5 7,072.2
Total Current Assets 24,288.0 28,427.0 26,634.0 27,868.0 28,910.5 29,378.8 30,206.3 30,767.7 31,478.3
Current LiabilitiesAccounts Payable 24,551.0 25,166.0 23,621.0 22,529.0 22,126.4 21,058.3 20,494.2 20,810.5 21,350.8 Accrued Liabilities 22,818.0 23,282.0 24,633.0 28,184.0 27,761.7 27,273.9 27,428.0 27,851.3 28,574.5 Other Current Liabilities 5,857.0 5,544.0 14,158.0 14,988.0 15,512.8 17,616.9 18,693.5 19,362.4 19,230.5
Total Current Liabilities 53,226.0 53,992.0 62,412.0 65,701.0 65,400.9 65,949.1 66,615.7 68,024.2 69,155.7
Net Working Capital (28,938.0) (25,565.0) (35,778.0) (37,833.0) (36,490.4) (36,570.3) (36,409.4) (37,256.5) (37,677.4) % Sales -19.3% -16.8% -23.0% -24.3% -22.6% -22.1% -21.5% -21.5% -21.3%
Change in NWC (10,213.0) (2,055.0) 1,342.6 (79.9) 160.9 (847.1) (421.0)
AssumptionsDays Sales Outstanding 24.2 24.9 20.0 21.2 21.0 21.0 21.0 21.0 21.0Days Inventory Held 45.0 44.2 42.4 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0Other Current Assets (% of sales) 0.0% 2.2% 2.6% 3.3% 3.6% 3.8% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%
Days Payable Outstanding 77.1 75.6 71.4 66.1 64 62 60 60 60Accrued Liabilities (% of COGS) 19.6% 19.2% 20.4% 22.6% 22.0% 22.0% 22.0% 22.0% 22.0%Other Current Liabilities (% of OpEx) 26.3% 11.2% 64.1% 65.7% 65.0% 64.0% 64.0% 64.0% 64.0%
Historical
25T H E S I S V A L U A T IO NC O M P A N Y R I S K SI N D U S T R Y
Relative ValuationDebt metrics
GM FIAT Ford02468
101214
Interest Coverage Ratio (EBIT)
GM Fiat Ford0123456
Debt/Equity
26T H E S I S V A L U A T I ONC O M P A N Y R I S K SI N D U S T R Y
APPENDIX 2014 2013 2012GM
EBIT 4,649,000 7,792,000-
28,206,000interest expense 403,000 334,000 489,000EBIT/interest expense
11.53598015
23.32934132
-57.680981
6FIAT EBIT 3,900,000 4,137,000 4,527,000interest expense 2,477,000 2,738,000 2,518,000EBIT/interest expense
1.574485264
1.510956903
1.797855441
Ford EBIT 5,139,000 7,869,000 8,351,000interest expense 797,000 829,000 713,000EBIT/interest expense
6.447929737
9.492159228
11.71248247
DAI EBIT 9346000 7620000 7768000interest expense -357,000 -523,000 -579,000EBIT/interest expense
-26.179271
71
-14.569789
67
-13.416234
89
2014 2013 2012GMdebt 31,853,000 22,025,000 3,424,000equity 35,457,000 42,607,000 36,244,000debt/equity 0.898355755 0.516933837 0.094470809Fiatdebt 40,808,000 41,729,000 37,315,000equity 16,245,000 11,473,000 8,157,000debt/equity 2.512034472 3.637148087 4.574598504Forddebt 119,171,000 114,688,000 105,058,000equity 24,805,000 26,112,000 15,947,000debt/equity 4.804313646 4.392156863 6.587947576